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Simplified blood pressure (BP) screening approaches have been proposed. However, evidence is limited to a few countries and has not documented the cardiovascular risk amongst missed hypertension cases, limiting the uptake of these simplified approaches. We quantified the proportion of missed, over-diagnosed, and consistently identified hypertension cases and the 10-year cardiovascular risk in these groups. We used 60 WHO STEPS surveys (cross-sectional and nationally representative; n = 145,174) conducted in 60 countries in 6 world regions between 2004 and 2019. Nine simplified approaches were compared against the standard (average of the last 2 of 3 BP measurements). The 10-year cardiovascular risk was computed with the 2019 World Health Organization Cardiovascular Risk Charts. We used t tests to compare the cardiovascular risk between the missed and over-diagnosed cases and the consistent hypertension cases. We used Poisson multilevel regressions to identify risk factors for missed cases (adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and 10-year cardiovascular risk). Across all countries, compared to the standard approach, the simplified approach that missed the fewest cases was using the second BP reading if the first BP reading was 130-145/80-95 mm Hg (5.62%); using only the second BP reading missed 5.82%. The simplified approach with the smallest over-diagnosis proportion was using the second BP reading if the first BP measurement was ≥140/90 mm Hg (3.03%). In many countries, cardiovascular risk was not significantly different between the missed and consistent hypertension groups, yet the mean was slightly lower amongst missed cases. Cardiovascular risk was positively associated with missed hypertension depending on the simplified approach. The main limitation of the work is the cross-sectional design. Simplified BP screening approaches seem to have low misdiagnosis rates, and cardiovascular risk could be lower amongst missed cases than amongst consistent hypertension cases. Simplified BP screening approaches could be included in large screening programmes and busy clinics.

Leptospirosis is a worldwide prevalent zoonosis and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading global disease burden. Because of pathophysiological changes in the kidney, it has been suggested that these conditions may be associated. However, the extent of this interaction has not been synthetized. We aimed to systematically review and critically appraise the evidence on the association between leptospirosis and CKD. Observational studies with a control group were selected. Leptospirosis, confirmed with laboratory methods, and CKD also based on a laboratory assessment, were the exposures and outcomes of interest. The search was conducted in EMBASE, MEDLINE, Global Health, Scopus and Web of Science. Studies selected for qualitative synthesis were assessed for risk of bias following the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. 5,981 reports were screened, and 2 (n = 3,534) were included for qualitative synthesis. The studies were conducted in Taiwan and Nicaragua; these reported cross-sectional and longitudinal estimates. In the general population, the mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was lower (p<0.001) in people testing positive for antileptospira antibodies (eGFR = 98.3) than in negative controls (eGFR = 100.8). Among sugarcane applicants with high creatinine, those who were seropositive had lower eGFR (mean difference: -10.08). In a prospective analysis, people with high antileptospira antibodies titer at baseline and follow-up, had worse eGFR (p<0.05). Although the available evidence suggests there may be a positive association between leptospirosis and CKD, whereby leptospirosis could be a risk factor for CKD, it is still premature to draw conclusions. There is an urgent need for research on this association.

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, and to promote mental health and wellbeing. We used data on cause-specific mortality to characterise the risk and trends in NCD mortality in each country and evaluate combinations of reductions in NCD causes of death that can achieve SDG target 3.4. Among NCDs, ischaemic heart disease is responsible for the highest risk of premature death in more than half of all countries for women, and more than three-quarters for men. However, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers are associated with a similar risk, and in many countries, a higher risk of premature death than ischaemic heart disease. Although premature mortality from NCDs is declining in most countries, for most the pace of change is too slow to achieve SDG target 3.4. To investigate the options available to each country for achieving SDG target 3.4, we considered different scenarios, each representing a combination of fast (annual rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries) and average (median of all countries) declines in risk of premature death from NCDs. Pathways analysis shows that every country has options for achieving SDG target 3.4. No country could achieve the target by addressing a single disease. In at least half the countries, achieving the target requires improvements in the rate of decline in at least five causes for women and in at least seven causes for men to the same rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries. Tobacco and alcohol control and effective health-system interventions—including hypertension and diabetes treatment; primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk individuals; low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilators for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; treatment of acute cardiovascular diseases, diabetes complications, and exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and effective cancer screening and treatment—will reduce NCD causes of death necessary to achieve SDG target 3.4 in most countries.

Replacement of regular salt with potassium-enriched substitutes reduces blood pressure in controlled situations, mainly among people with hypertension. We report on a population-wide implementation of this strategy in a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial ( NCT01960972 ). The regular salt in enrolled households was retrieved and replaced, free of charge, with a combination of 75% NaCl and 25% KCl. A total of 2,376 participants were enrolled in 6 villages in Tumbes, Peru. The fully adjusted intention-to-treat analysis showed an average reduction of 1.29 mm Hg (95% confidence interval (95% CI) (−2.17, −0.41)) in systolic and 0.76 mm Hg (95% CI (−1.39, −0.13)) in diastolic blood pressure. Among participants without hypertension at baseline, in the time- and cluster-adjusted model, the use of the salt substitute was associated with a 51% (95% CI (29%, 66%)) reduced risk of developing hypertension compared with the control group. In 24-h urine samples, there was no evidence of differences in sodium levels (mean difference 0.01; 95% CI (0.25, −0.23)), but potassium levels were higher at the end of the study than at baseline (mean difference 0.63; 95% CI (0.78, 0.47)). Our results support a case for implementing a pragmatic, population-wide, salt-substitution strategy for reducing blood pressure and hypertension incidence. A step-wedged cluster randomized trial, carried out in six villages in Tumbes, Peru, with 2,376 participants, demonstrates population-wide reductions in blood pressure, which appear to be higher in individuals with hypertension, as well as reductions in risk of hypertension by around 50% for those without hypertension at baseline, after community-wide replacement of regular salt with a potassium-enriched alternative.

The aim of the study was to estimate the association between maternal perception of their child's health status and (mis)classification of their child's actual weight with future weight change. We present cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses from the Peruvian younger cohort of the Young Lives Study. For cross-sectional analysis, the exposure was maternal perception of child health status (better, same or worse); the outcome was underestimation or overestimation of the child's actual weight. Mothers were asked about their perception of their child's weight (same, lighter or heavier than other children). Actual weight status was defined with IOTF BMI cut-off points. For longitudinal analysis, the exposure was (mis)classification of the child's actual weight; the outcome was the standardized mean difference between follow-up and baseline BMI. A Generalized Linear Model with Poisson family and log-link was used to report the prevalence ratio (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for cross-sectional analyses. A Linear Regression Model was used to report the longitudinal analysis as coefficient estimates (β) and 95% CI. Normal weight children who were perceived as more healthy than other children were more likely to have their weight overestimated (PR = 2.06); conversely, those who were perceived as less healthy than other children were more likely to have their weight underestimated (PR = 2.17). Mean follow-up time was 2.6 (SD: 0.3) years. Overall, underweight children whose weight was overestimated were more likely to gain BMI (β = 0.44); whilst overweight children whose weight was considered to be the same of their peers (β = -0.55), and those considered to be lighter than other children (β = -0.87), lost BMI. Maternal perception of the child's health status seems to influence both overestimation and underestimation of the child's actual weight status. Such weight (mis)perception may influence future BMI.

Background: This systematic review had three aims: i) to determine the frequency of anosmia (or other smell disorders) and dysgeusia (or other taste disorders) in COVID-19 patients; ii) to determine whether anosmia or dysgeusia are independently associated with COVID-19 diagnosis; and iii) to determine whether anosmia or dysgeusia are prognostic factors for impaired outcomes among COVID-19 patients. Methods: On April 20 th , 2020, we search MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Scopus, Web of Science and MedXriv. We used terms related to COVID-19, smell and taste disorders. We selected case series, cross-sectional, case-control and cohort studies. We included studies with COVID-19 patients describing their symptoms; studies that compared smell and taste disorders between COVID-19 patients and otherwise healthy subjects; and studies comparing smell and taste disorders between COVID-19 severe and mild/moderate cases. Because of methodological heterogeneity and the limited number of results, a qualitative synthesis is presented. Results: From 31 reports, we selected six (n=2,757). Six studies reported the proportion of smell and taste disorders among COVID-19 patients. Two reports studied whether smell and taste disorders were independently associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. No reports studied the association with impaired outcomes among COVID-19 patients. The frequency of anosmia ranged between 22%-68%. The definition of taste disorders varied greatly, with dysgeusia present in 33% and ageusia in 20%. People who reported loss of smell and taste had six-fold higher odds of being COVID-19 positive; similarly, anosmia and ageusia were associated with 10-fold higher odds of COVID-19 diagnosis. Conclusions: The frequency of smell and taste disorders is as high as other symptoms, thus, at least anosmia for which the definition was more consistent, could be included in lists of COVID-19 symptoms. Although there is promising evidence, it is premature to conclude that smell and taste disorders are strongly associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020181308

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has attracted the attention of researchers and clinicians whom have provided evidence about risk factors and clinical outcomes. Research on the COVID-19 pandemic benefiting from open-access data and machine learning algorithms is still scarce yet can produce relevant and pragmatic information. With country-level pre-COVID-19-pandemic variables, we aimed to cluster countries in groups with shared profiles of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Unsupervised machine learning algorithms (k-means) were used to define data-driven clusters of countries; the algorithm was informed by disease prevalence estimates, metrics of air pollution, socio-economic status and health system coverage. Using the one-way ANOVA test, we compared the clusters in terms of number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, number of deaths, case fatality rate and order in which the country reported the first case. Results: The model to define the clusters was developed with 155 countries. The model with three principal component analysis parameters and five or six clusters showed the best ability to group countries in relevant sets. There was strong evidence that the model with five or six clusters could stratify countries according to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (p<0.001). However, the model could not stratify countries in terms of number of deaths or case fatality rate. Conclusions : A simple data-driven approach using available global information before the COVID-19 pandemic, seemed able to classify countries in terms of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The model was not able to stratify countries based on COVID-19 mortality data.

Background There is limited evidence on the long-term associations between cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) and multiple domains of functioning, and the potential role of social activity in these associations. We aimed to examine the associations between CMM and joint trajectories of physical disability, depressive symptom, and cognitive function, and whether social activity modifies these trajectories. Methods This multicohort study used pooled data of four prospective cohorts of adults from China, the UK, the USA, and Europe. Participants with complete information on cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs, including heart diseases, stroke, and diabetes) and social activity at baseline were included. Physical disability, depressive symptom, and cognitive function were measured one to five times. Longitudinal modelling was used to describe post-baseline trajectories of the three domains, stratified by CMM status and social activity. Results Among 73,778 participants (age 63.4 ± 9.1 years, 56.0% female), 20.0% had single CMD and 4.3% had CMM at baseline. Participants with single CMD or CMM had persistently worse physical disability, depressive symptom, and cognitive function compared to those without CMD. CMM was associated with faster worsening of physical disability ( β linear change*CMM  = − 0.017 [95% confidence interval = − 0.030 to − 0.004]) and cognitive function (− 0.035 [− 0.050 to − 0.019]), particularly among those with social inactivity. Among 40,883 participants (age 62.9 ± 8.9 years, 55.6% female) in joint trajectory analysis, four trajectories were identified: ‘favourable trajectories of physical disability, depressive symptom, and cognitive function’ (48.1%); ‘worsening cognitive function’ (32.6%); ‘worsening depressive symptom and cognitive function’ (14.6%); and ‘rapidly-worsening physical disability and worsening depressive symptom and cognitive function’ (4.7%). CMD or CMM were associated with all the three worsening joint trajectories. The highest odds were observed for concurrent worsening across all three functional domains in participants with CMM (odds ratio 3.43 [2.80–4.20]), with more unfavourable trajectories in those with social inactivity (7.26 [5.49–9.59], P for additive interaction < 0.001). Conclusions CMM was associated with worse levels, faster progression, and concurrent deterioration in physical disability, depressive symptom, and cognitive function, with the poorest trajectories among those who were socially inactive. This underscores the importance of implementing prevention strategies that integrate physical, psychological, cognitive, and social activities.

Background Maternal short-term outcomes of postpartum depression (PPD) were widely examined, but little is known about its long-term association with multiple chronic diseases (multimorbidity) in women’s later life. This study aims to assess the association of PPD with chronic diseases and multimorbidity in women’s mid-late life. Methods This prospective cohort study included female participants in UK Biobank who attended online follow-up assessment and reported their history of PPD. A total of 36 chronic diseases were assessed and multimorbidity was defined as the co-existence of two or more of these diseases. Participants were followed from the baseline recruitment to the onset of two or more chronic diseases, death, or the end of follow-up (2023). Logistic regression models, Cox proportional hazard models, quasi-Poisson mixed effects models, and linear mixed models were conducted to examine the association of PPD with chronic diseases and multimorbidity at baseline and during follow-up. Results Among all 54,885 participants, 5106 (9.3%) participants experienced PPD, 13,928 (25.4%) participants had multimorbidity at baseline, and 14,135 (25.8%) participants developed two or more diseases during a median follow-up of 15 years. Women with a PPD history had higher odds of having multimorbidity at baseline (odds ratio = 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27–1.44) and higher risk of developing multimorbidity during follow-up (hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.08–1.20). PPD was associated with increased number of chronic diseases, with the relatively new-onset number of diseases during follow-up being 8% higher for those with PPD (relative risk = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.05–1.12). Chronic diseases also accumulated at a faster annual rate for women with a history of PPD ( b  = 0.009, 95% CI = 0.007–0.011), compared to those without. We observed no interaction or mediation effects of physical activity, smoking, alcohol drinking, and dietary factors on the association between PPD and multimorbidity; however, women’s body mass index at baseline contributed to the association, with the mediation proportion of 6.38% (2.56–10.20%). Conclusions PPD was associated with higher risks of chronic diseases and multimorbidity in women’s mid-late life. This finding supports the importance of perinatal and postpartum mental health care, and its role in the prevention of chronic diseases and multimorbidity throughout women’s life course.

Stroke is a recurrent and well-known cardiovascular event and a leading cause of death worldwide. We identified reliable epidemiological evidence of stroke in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and estimated the prevalence and incidence of stroke, overall and by sex, in that region. A systematic search in OVID (Medline, Embase and Global Health) and in the Latin America and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS) until the end of 2020 was made for all cross-sectional or longitudinal studies estimating (or allowing the estimation of) the prevalence or incidence of stroke among individuals of the general population ≥ 18 years from LAC countries. No language restriction was applied. Studies were assessed for methodological quality and risk of bias. Pooled estimates were calculated using random effect meta-analysis as high heterogeneity was expected. A total of 31 papers for prevalence and 11 papers for incidence were included in the review for analysis. The overall pooled stroke prevalence was 32 (95% CI 26–38) per 1000 subjects and were similar among men (21; 95% CI 17–25) and women (20; 95% CI 16–23) per 1000 subjects. The overall pooled stroke incidence was 255 (95% CI 217–293) per 100 000 person-years, being higher in men (261; 95% CI 221–301) compared to women (217; 95% CI 184–250) per 100 000 person-years. Our results highlight the relevance of the prevalence and incidence of stroke in the LAC region. The estimates were similar in stroke prevalence by sex, but with higher incidence rates among males than females. Subgroup analyses highlight the need for standardized methodologies to obtain appropriate prevalence and incidence estimates at the population level in a region with a great burden of cardiovascular events.