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Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead, macroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are \"rational.\" This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense, expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters, which in turn may be rational. The model's estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports; this inattention generates \"stickyness\" in aggregate expectations, with important macroeconomic consequences.

Ion acceleration driven by the interaction of an ultraintense (2 × 1020 W cm−2) laser pulse with an ultrathin ( nm) foil target is experimentally and numerically investigated. Protons accelerated by sheath fields and via laser radiation pressure are angularly separated and identified based on their directionality and signature features (e.g. transverse instabilities) in the measured spatial-intensity distribution. A low divergence, high energy proton component is also detected when the heated target electrons expand and the target becomes relativistically transparent during the interaction. 2D and 3D particle-in-cell simulations indicate that under these conditions a plasma jet is formed at the target rear, supported by a self-generated azimuthal magnetic field, which extends into the expanded layer of sheath-accelerated protons. Electrons trapped within this jet are directly accelerated to super-thermal energies by the portion of the laser pulse transmitted through the target. The resulting streaming of the electrons into the ion layers enhances the energy of protons in the vicinity of the jet. Through the addition of a controlled prepulse, the maximum energy of these protons is demonstrated experimentally and numerically to be sensitive to the picosecond rising edge profile of the laser pulse.

Increasing the intensity to which high power laser pulses are focused has opened up new research possibilities, including promising new approaches to particle acceleration and phenomena such as high field quantum electrodynamics. Whilst the intensity achievable with a laser pulse of a given power can be increased via tighter focusing, the focal spot profile also plays an important role in the interaction physics. Here we show that the spatial-intensity distribution, and specifically the ratio of the intensity in the peak of the laser focal spot to the halo surrounding it, is important in the interaction of ultraintense laser pulses with solid targets. By comparing proton acceleration measurements from foil targets irradiated with by a near-diffraction-limited wavelength scale focal spot and larger F-number focusing, we find that this spatial-intensity contrast parameter strongly influences laser energy coupling to fast electrons. We find that for multi-petawatt pulses, spatial-intensity contrast is potentially as important as temporal-intensity contrast.

When a pulse of light reflects from a mirror that is travelling close to the speed of light, Einstein’s theory of relativity predicts that it will be up-shifted to a substantially higher frequency and compressed to a much shorter duration. This scenario is realized by the relativistically oscillating plasma surface generated by an ultraintense laser focused onto a solid target. Until now, it has been unclear whether the conditions necessary to exploit such phenomena can survive such an extreme interaction with increasing laser intensity. Here, we provide the first quantitative evidence to suggest that they can. We show that the occurrence of surface smoothing on the scale of the wavelength of the generated harmonics, and plasma denting of the irradiated surface, enables the production of high-quality X-ray beams focused down to the diffraction limit. These results improve the outlook for generating extreme X-ray fields, which could in principle extend to the Schwinger limit. A systematic demonstration of the generation and focusing of laser-driven high-order harmonics to a near-diffraction-limited spot suggests that scaling this approach to ever higher intensities could be easier than first thought.

Laser energy absorption to fast electrons during the interaction of an ultra-intense (1020 W cm−2), picosecond laser pulse with a solid is investigated, experimentally and numerically, as a function of the plasma density scale length at the irradiated surface. It is shown that there is an optimum density gradient for efficient energy coupling to electrons and that this arises due to strong self-focusing and channeling driving energy absorption over an extended length in the preformed plasma. At longer density gradients the laser filaments, resulting in significantly lower overall energy coupling. As the scale length is further increased, a transition to a second laser energy absorption process is observed experimentally via multiple diagnostics. The results demonstrate that it is possible to significantly enhance laser energy absorption and coupling to fast electrons by dynamically controlling the plasma density gradient.

Spectrally-peaked proton beams of high charge ( , , nC ) have been observed from the interaction of an intense laser ( W cm−2) with ultrathin CH foils, as measured by spectrally-resolved full beam profiles. These beams are reproducibly generated for foil thicknesses 5-100 nm, and exhibit narrowing divergence with decreasing target thickness down to for 5 nm. Simulations demonstrate that the narrow energy spread feature is a result of buffered acceleration of protons. The radiation pressure at the front of the target results in asymmetric sheath fields which permeate throughout the target, causing preferential forward acceleration. Due to their higher charge-to-mass ratio, the protons outrun a carbon plasma driven in the relativistic transparency regime.

This paper argues that the typical household's saving is better described by a \"buffer-stock\" version than by the traditional version of the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis (LC/PIH) model. Buffer-stock behavior emerges if consumers with important income uncertainty are sufficiently impatient. In the traditional model, consumption growth is determined solely by tastes. In contrast, buffer-stock consumers set average consumption growth equal to average labor income growth, regardless of tastes. The model can explain three empirical puzzles: the \"consumption/income parallel\" documented by Carroll and Summers; the \"consumption/income divergence\" first documented in the 1930s; and the stability of the household age/wealth profile over time despite the unpredictability of idiosyncratic wealth changes.

Asymmetry in the collective dynamics of ponderomotively-driven electrons in the interaction of an ultraintense laser pulse with a relativistically transparent target is demonstrated experimentally. The 2D profile of the beam of accelerated electrons is shown to change from an ellipse aligned along the laser polarization direction in the case of limited transparency, to a double-lobe structure aligned perpendicular to it when a significant fraction of the laser pulse co-propagates with the electrons. The temporally-resolved dynamics of the interaction are investigated via particle-in-cell simulations. The results provide new insight into the collective response of charged particles to intense laser fields over an extended interaction volume, which is important for a wide range of applications, and in particular for the development of promising new ultraintense laser-driven ion acceleration mechanisms involving ultrathin target foils.

Many economists from at least Keynes (1935) on have had the intuition that the consumption function is concave, with a marginal propensity to consume lower for rich consumers than for poor consumers. Nevertheless, much empirical and theoretical work has assumed, explicitly or implicitly, that the consumption function is linear. One of the most striking features of Zeldes's (1989) numerical solutions for the consumption rule under certainty is the introduction of concavity to consumption rules that were linear in the absence of uncertainty. A solid analytical explanation is provided for concavity of the consumption rule under uncertainty.

The properties of beams of high energy protons accelerated during ultraintense, picosecond laser-irradiation of thin foil targets are investigated as a function of preplasma expansion at the target front surface. Significant enhancement in the maximum proton energy and laser-to-proton energy conversion efficiency is observed at optimum preplasma density gradients, due to self-focusing of the incident laser pulse. For very long preplasma expansion, the propagating laser pulse is observed to filament, resulting in highly uniform proton beams, but with reduced flux and maximum energy.