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13 result(s) for "Caruana, Guillermo"
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A Theory of Endogenous Commitment
Commitment is typically modelled by assigning to one of the players the ability to take an initial binding action. The weakness of this approach is that the fundamental question of who has the opportunity to commit cannot be addressed, as it is assumed. This paper presents a framework in which commitment power arises endogenously from the fundamentals of the model. We construct a finite dynamic game in which players are given the option to change their minds as often as they wish, but pay a switching cost if they do so. We show that for games with two players and two actions there is a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium with a simple structure. This equilibrium is independent of the order and timing of moves and is robust to other protocol specifications. Moreover, despite the perfect information nature of the model and the costly switches, strategic delays may arise in equilibrium. The flexibility of the model allows us to apply it to various environments. In particular, we study an entry deterrence situation. Its equilibrium is intuitive and illustrative of how commitment power is endogenously determined.
Production targets
We analyze a dynamic model of quantity competition, where firms continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. Quantity targets serve as a partial commitment device and, in equilibrium, follow a hump-shaped pattern. The final equilibrium is more competitive than in the static analog. We then use data on monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers and show a similar empirical hump-shaped dynamic pattern. Taken together, this suggests that strategic considerations may play a role in setting auto production schedules, and that static models may misestimate the industry's competitiveness.
Search, Design, and Market Structure
The Internet has made consumer search easier, with consequences for prices, industry structure, and the kinds of products offered. We provide an industry model with strategic design choices that explores these issues. A polarized market structure results: some firms choose designs aimed at broad-based audiences, while others target narrow niches. We analyze the effect of reduced search costs, finding results consistent with the reported prevalence of niche goods and long-tail and superstar phenomena. In particular, the model suggests that long-tail effects arise when there is a wide range of potential designs, relative to vertical heterogeneity among firms. JEL: D11, D21, D83, L11, L86, M31
Information Gathering Externalities for a Multi-Attribute Good
Most goods and services vary in numerous dimensions. Customers choose to acquire information to assess some characteristics and not others. Their choices affect firms' incentives to invest in quality and so lead to indirect externalities in consumers' choices. We characterize a model in which a monopolist invests in the quality of a product with two characteristics, and consumers are heterogeneous ex-ante. Consumers do not internalize their influence on the firm's investment incentives when choosing which information to acquire. Cheaper information affects consumers' information gathering and thereby firm investment. This can paradoxically reduce consumer surplus, profits, and welfare.
A theory of endogenous commitment
Commitment is typically modelled by assigning to one of the players the ability to take an initial binding action. The weakness of this approach is that the fundamental question of who has the opportunity to commit cannot be addressed, as it is assumed. This paper presents a framework in which commitment power arises endogenously from the fundamentals of the model. We construct a finite dynamic game in which players are given the option to change their minds as often as they wish, but pay a switching cost if they do so. We show that for games with two players and two actions there is a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium with a simple structure. This equilibrium is independent of the order and timing of moves and is robust to other protocol specifications. Moreover, despite the perfect information nature of the model and the costly switches, strategic delays may arise in equilibrium. The flexibility of the model allows us to apply it to various environments. In particular, we study an entry deterrence situation. Its equilibrium is intuitive and illustrative of how commitment power is endogenously determined. Reprinted by permission of Blackwell Publishers
Targeted product design
We present a model of product design. In our framework, there is an inherent trade-off associated with choosing between broad or niche designs. More-targeted designs are able to excite specific types of consumers, but at the cost of alienating others. We adapt the familiar Salop (1979) circle by allowing firms to locate on the interior. In contrast to previous research that exogenously assumed extreme designs, we provide conditions that ensure extreme or intermediate designs in monopoly, monopolistic competition, and duopoly. We use the framework to qualify earlier findings in the literature and support the robustness of others.
Dynamic interactions and information in microeconomics
My thesis explores three topics in which the interaction of dynamics and information play a key role: commitment, reputation and the transmission of information through prices. In the first chapter I investigate a new path to the modeling of commitment. Commitment is typically studied by giving one of the players the opportunity to take an initial binding action. This approach has the drawback that the fundamental question of who has the opportunity to commit is driven by a modeling decision. I construct a dynamic model in which players are given the opportunity to change their minds as often as they want, but pay a switching cost if they do so. In this framework commitment power arises naturally from the fundamentals of the model. Applications to an entry-deterrence situation and a bargaining setting are then presented. My second chapter studies the consequences of managers' reputational concerns for the optimal design of their compensation schemes. As future salaries depend on the manager's perceived ability, she has incentives to distort today's decision to influence that perception. On the one hand, I verify that the perverse incentives of career concerns are robust to the introduction of contingent contracting. On the other, I characterize the impact of contingent contracting on different equilibrium outcomes. I find that while managerial compensation is monotonically increasing in profits late in a career, this is not the case early on. I relate the implications of these results to the literature on the link between pay and performance. When agents take decisions under uncertainty in dynamic settings, they have the opportunity to update their behavior as new information arrives. Using a new data set from multi-unit descending Internet auctions, I examine in the third chapter the extent to which agents incorporate such information and provide estimates of the importance of informational frenzies (moments when many buyers offer to buy at the same price) and crashes (moments when it becomes common knowledge that no buyer would buy at the current price).
Locating inside the Salop circle: Demand rotations in a micro-founded model
We present a micro-founded model of design, that provides a framework in which design leads to demand rotations. We show simple sufficient conditions that determine when design should be extreme (fully standardized or fully tailored) or rather be only partially tailored.
Production Targets
Working Paper No. 11958 We present a dynamic quantity setting game, where players may continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. These costs allow players to use quantity targets as a partial commitment device. We show that the equilibrium path of such a game is hump-shaped and that the final equilibrium outcome is more competitive than its static analog. We then test the theory using monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers during 1965-1995 and show that the hump-shaped dynamic pattern is present in the data. Initially, production targets steadily increase until they peak about 2-3 months before production. Then, they gradually decline to eventual production levels. This qualitative pattern is fairly robust across a range of similar exercises. We conclude that strategic considerations play a role in the planning phase in the auto industry, and that static models may therefore under-estimate the industry's competitiveness.
Production Targets
We present a dynamic quantity setting game, where players may continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. These costs allow players to use quantity targets as a partial commitment device. We show that the equilibrium path of such a game is hump-shaped and that the final equilibrium outcome is more competitive than its static analog. We then test the theory using monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers during 1965-1995 and show that the hump-shaped dynamic pattern is present in the data. Initially, production targets steadily increase until they peak about 2-3 months before production. Then, they gradually decline to eventual production levels. This qualitative pattern is fairly robust across a range of similar exercises. We conclude that strategic considerations play a role in the planning phase in the auto industry, and that static models may therefore under-estimate the industry's competitiveness.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)