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The metabolic basis of Alzheimer disease (AD) is poorly understood, and the relationships between systemic abnormalities in metabolism and AD pathogenesis are unclear. Understanding how global perturbations in metabolism are related to severity of AD neuropathology and the eventual expression of AD symptoms in at-risk individuals is critical to developing effective disease-modifying treatments. In this study, we undertook parallel metabolomics analyses in both the brain and blood to identify systemic correlates of neuropathology and their associations with prodromal and preclinical measures of AD progression. Quantitative and targeted metabolomics (Biocrates AbsoluteIDQ [identification and quantification] p180) assays were performed on brain tissue samples from the autopsy cohort of the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) (N = 44, mean age = 81.33, % female = 36.36) from AD (N = 15), control (CN; N = 14), and \"asymptomatic Alzheimer's disease\" (ASYMAD, i.e., individuals with significant AD pathology but no cognitive impairment during life; N = 15) participants. Using machine-learning methods, we identified a panel of 26 metabolites from two main classes-sphingolipids and glycerophospholipids-that discriminated AD and CN samples with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 83.33%, 86.67%, and 80%, respectively. We then assayed these 26 metabolites in serum samples from two well-characterized longitudinal cohorts representing prodromal (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative [ADNI], N = 767, mean age = 75.19, % female = 42.63) and preclinical (BLSA) (N = 207, mean age = 78.68, % female = 42.63) AD, in which we tested their associations with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of AD-related brain atrophy, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of AD pathology, risk of conversion to incident AD, and trajectories of cognitive performance. We developed an integrated blood and brain endophenotype score that summarized the relative importance of each metabolite to severity of AD pathology and disease progression (Endophenotype Association Score in Early Alzheimer's Disease [EASE-AD]). Finally, we mapped the main metabolite classes emerging from our analyses to key biological pathways implicated in AD pathogenesis. We found that distinct sphingolipid species including sphingomyelin (SM) with acyl residue sums C16:0, C18:1, and C16:1 (SM C16:0, SM C18:1, SM C16:1) and hydroxysphingomyelin with acyl residue sum C14:1 (SM (OH) C14:1) were consistently associated with severity of AD pathology at autopsy and AD progression across prodromal and preclinical stages. Higher log-transformed blood concentrations of all four sphingolipids in cognitively normal individuals were significantly associated with increased risk of future conversion to incident AD: SM C16:0 (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.430, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.703-11.520, p = 0.002), SM C16:1 (HR = 3.455, 95% CI = 1.516-7.873, p = 0.003), SM (OH) C14:1 (HR = 3.539, 95% CI = 1.373-9.122, p = 0.009), and SM C18:1 (HR = 2.255, 95% CI = 1.047-4.855, p = 0.038). The sphingolipid species identified map to several biologically relevant pathways implicated in AD, including tau phosphorylation, amyloid-β (Aβ) metabolism, calcium homeostasis, acetylcholine biosynthesis, and apoptosis. Our study has limitations: the relatively small number of brain tissue samples may have limited our power to detect significant associations, control for heterogeneity between groups, and replicate our findings in independent, autopsy-derived brain samples. We present a novel framework to identify biologically relevant brain and blood metabolites associated with disease pathology and progression during the prodromal and preclinical stages of AD. Our results show that perturbations in sphingolipid metabolism are consistently associated with endophenotypes across preclinical and prodromal AD, as well as with AD pathology at autopsy. Sphingolipids may be biologically relevant biomarkers for the early detection of AD, and correcting perturbations in sphingolipid metabolism may be a plausible and novel therapeutic strategy in AD.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the leading causes of blindness in the United States and world-wide. DR is a silent disease that may go unnoticed until it is too late for effective treatment. Therefore, early detection could improve the chances of therapeutic interventions that would alleviate its effects. Graded fundus photography and systemic data from 3443 ACCORD-Eye Study participants were used to estimate Random Forest (RF) and logistic regression classifiers. We studied the impact of sample size on classifier performance and the possibility of using RF generated class conditional probabilities as metrics describing DR risk. RF measures of variable importance are used to detect factors that affect classification performance. Both types of data were informative when discriminating participants with or without DR. RF based models produced much higher classification accuracy than those based on logistic regression. Combining both types of data did not increase accuracy but did increase statistical discrimination of healthy participants who subsequently did or did not have DR events during four years of follow-up. RF variable importance criteria revealed that microaneurysms counts in both eyes seemed to play the most important role in discrimination among the graded fundus variables, while the number of medicines and diabetes duration were the most relevant among the systemic variables. We have introduced RF methods to DR classification analyses based on fundus photography data. In addition, we propose an approach to DR risk assessment based on metrics derived from graded fundus photography and systemic data. Our results suggest that RF methods could be a valuable tool to diagnose DR diagnosis and evaluate its progression.

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM : PM with aerodynamic diameters < 2.5 μm) has been linked with cognitive deficits in older adults. Using fine-grained voxel-wise analyses, we examined whether PM exposure also affects brain structure. Brain MRI data were obtained from 1365 women (aged 71-89) in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study and local brain volumes were estimated using RAVENS (regional analysis of volumes in normalized space). Based on geocoded residential locations and air monitoring data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, we employed a spatiotemporal model to estimate long-term (3-year average) exposure to ambient PM preceding MRI scans. Voxel-wise linear regression models were fit separately to gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) maps to analyze associations between brain structure and PM exposure, with adjustment for potential confounders. Increased PM exposure was associated with smaller volumes in both cortical GM and subcortical WM areas. For GM, associations were clustered in the bilateral superior, middle, and medial frontal gyri. For WM, the largest clusters were in the frontal lobe, with smaller clusters in the temporal, parietal, and occipital lobes. No statistically significant associations were observed between PM exposure and hippocampal volumes. Long-term PM exposures may accelerate loss of both GM and WM in older women. While our previous work linked smaller WM volumes to PM , this is the first neuroimaging study reporting associations between air pollution exposure and smaller volumes of cortical GM. Our data support the hypothesized synaptic neurotoxicity of airborne particles.

Accelerometer-based fitness trackers and smartwatches are proliferating with incessant attention towards health tracking. Despite their growing popularity, accurately measuring hallmark measures of physical activities has yet to be accomplished in adults of all ages. In this work, we evaluated the performance of four machine learning models: decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), to estimate the hallmark measures of physical activities in young (20–50 years), middle-aged (50–70 years], and older adults (70–89 years]. Our models were built to recognize physical activity types, recognize physical activity intensities, estimate energy expenditure (EE) and recognize individual physical activities using wrist-worn tri-axial accelerometer data (33 activities per participant) from a large sample of participants (n = 253, 62% women, aged 20–89 years old). Results showed that the machine learning models were quite accurate at recognizing physical activity type and intensity and estimating energy expenditure. However, models performed less optimally when recognizing individual physical activities. F1-Scores derived from XGBoost’s models were high for sedentary (0.955–0.973), locomotion (0.942–0.964) and lifestyle (0.913–0.949) activity types with no apparent difference across age groups. Low (0.919–0.947), light (0.813–0.828) and moderate (0.846–0.875) physical activity intensities were also recognized accurately. The root mean square error range for EE was approximately 1 equivalent of resting EE [0.835–1.009 METs]. Generally, random forest and XGBoost models outperformed other models. In conclusion, machine learning models to label physical activity types, activity intensity and energy expenditure are accurate and there are minimal differences in their performance across young, middle-aged and older adults.

Sufficient physical activity (PA) reduces the risk of a myriad of diseases and preserves physical capabilities in later life. While there have been significant achievements in mapping accelerations to real-life movements using machine learning (ML), errors continue to be common, particularly for wrist-worn devices. It remains unknown whether ML models are robust for estimating age-related loss of physical function. In this study, we evaluated the performance of ML models (XGBoost and LASSO) to estimate the hallmark measures of PA in low physical performance (LPP) and high physical performance (HPP) groups. Our models were built to recognize PA types and intensities, identify each individual activity, and estimate energy expenditure (EE) using wrist-worn accelerometer data (33 activities per participant) from a large sample of participants (n = 247, 57% females, aged 60+ years). Results indicated that the ML models were accurate in recognizing PA by type and intensity while also estimating EE accurately. However, the models built to recognize individual activities were less robust. Across all tasks, XGBoost outperformed LASSO. XGBoost obtained F1-Scores for sedentary (0.932 ± 0.005), locomotion (0.946 ± 0.003), lifestyle (0.927 ± 0.006), and strength flexibility exercise (0.915 ± 0.017) activity type recognition tasks. The F1-Scores for recognizing low, light, and moderate activity intensity were (0.932 ± 0.005), (0.840 ± 0.004), and (0.869 ± 0.005), respectively. The root mean square error for EE estimation was 0.836 ± 0.059 METs. There was no evidence showing that splitting the participants into the LPP and HPP groups improved the models’ performance on estimating the hallmark measures of physical activities. In conclusion, using features derived from wrist-worn accelerometer data, machine learning models can accurately recognize PA types and intensities and estimate EE for older adults with high and low physical function.

Alzheimer’s disease and related dementia (ADRD) are becoming increasingly prevalent and are predicted to affect up to 153 million globally by 2050. Outside of biomarkers that measure pathology, there is a lack of methods to quantify and study complex behaviors such as driving and managing finances that precede cognitive decline among older adults. The DRIVES Project at Washington University School of Medicine has developed a pipeline to measure naturalistic driving behavior of older adult drivers enrolled in longitudinal studies of aging and ADRD. This driving behavior is captured in the form of tabular data for each trip a participant takes and is processed in two formats: low-frequency driving data, comprising approximately 2.8 million trips (37 GB), and high-frequency driving data, with approximately 1.4 million trips (2.6 TB). This pipeline also captures common participant sociodemographic characteristics, clinical features, and environmental context across various weather conditions, as well as the Area Deprivation Index and the Social Vulnerability Index, to comprehensively characterize the multidimensional nature of neurodegenerative processes among older adults.

Our understanding of the specific aspects of vascular contributions to dementia remains unclear. We aim to identify the correlates of incident dementia in a multi-ethnic cardiovascular cohort. A total of 6806 participants with follow-up data for incident dementia were included. Probable dementia diagnoses were identified using hospitalization discharge diagnoses according to the International Classification of Diseases Codes (ICD). We used Random Forest analyses to identify the correlates of incident dementia and cognitive function from among 198 variables collected at the baseline MESA exam entailing demographic risk factors, medical history, anthropometry, lab biomarkers, electrocardiograms, cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, carotid ultrasonography, coronary artery calcium and liver fat content. Death and stroke were considered competing events. Over 14 years of follow-up, 326 dementia events were identified. Beyond age, the top correlates of dementia included coronary artery calcification, high sensitivity troponin, common carotid artery intima to media thickness, NT-proBNP, physical activity, pulse pressure, tumor necrosis factor-α, history of cancer, and liver to spleen attenuation ratio from computed tomography. Correlates of cognitive function included income and physical activity, body size, serum glucose, glomerular filtration rate, measures of carotid artery stiffness, alcohol use, and inflammation indexed as IL-2 and TNF soluble receptors and plasmin-antiplasmin complex. In a deeply phenotyped cardiovascular cohort we identified the key correlates of dementia beyond age as subclinical atherosclerosis and myocyte damage, vascular function, inflammation, physical activity, hepatic steatosis, and history of cancer.

Statistical models to predict incident diabetes are often based on limited variables. Here we pursued two main goals: 1) investigate the relative performance of a machine learning method such as Random Forests (RF) for detecting incident diabetes in a high-dimensional setting defined by a large set of observational data, and 2) uncover potential predictors of diabetes. The Jackson Heart Study collected data at baseline and in two follow-up visits from 5,301 African Americans. We excluded those with baseline diabetes and no follow-up, leaving 3,633 individuals for analyses. Over a mean 8-year follow-up, 584 participants developed diabetes. The full RF model evaluated 93 variables including demographic, anthropometric, blood biomarker, medical history, and echocardiogram data. We also used RF metrics of variable importance to rank variables according to their contribution to diabetes prediction. We implemented other models based on logistic regression and RF where features were preselected. The RF full model performance was similar (AUC = 0.82) to those more parsimonious models. The top-ranked variables according to RF included hemoglobin A1C, fasting plasma glucose, waist circumference, adiponectin, c-reactive protein, triglycerides, leptin, left ventricular mass, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and aldosterone. This work shows the potential of RF for incident diabetes prediction while dealing with high-dimensional data.

The goal of this work is to introduce new metrics to assess risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) which we call AD Pattern Similarity (AD-PS) scores. These metrics are the conditional probabilities modeled by large-scale regularized logistic regression. The AD-PS scores derived from structural MRI and cognitive test data were tested across different situations using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. The scores were computed across groups of participants stratified by cognitive status, age and functional status. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate associations with the distribution of conversion times from mild cognitive impairment to AD. The performances of classifiers developed using data from different types of brain tissue were systematically characterized across cognitive status groups. We also explored the performance of anatomical and cognitive-anatomical composite scores generated by combining the outputs of classifiers developed using different types of data. In addition, we provide the AD-PS scores performance relative to other metrics used in the field including the Spatial Pattern of Abnormalities for Recognition of Early AD (SPARE-AD) index and total hippocampal volume for the variables examined.

In recent years, multiple brain MR imaging modalities have emerged; however, analysis methodologies have mainly remained modality-specific. In addition, when comparing across imaging modalities, most researchers have been forced to rely on simple region-of-interest type analyses, which do not allow the voxel-by-voxel comparisons necessary to answer more sophisticated neuroscience questions. To overcome these limitations, we developed a toolbox for multimodal image analysis called biological parametric mapping (BPM), based on a voxel-wise use of the general linear model. The BPM toolbox incorporates information obtained from other modalities as regressors in a voxel-wise analysis, thereby permitting investigation of more sophisticated hypotheses. The BPM toolbox has been developed in Matlab with a user-friendly interface for performing analyses, including voxel-wise multimodal correlation, ANCOVA, and multiple regression. It has a high degree of integration with the SPM (statistical parametric mapping) software relying on it for visualization and statistical inference. Furthermore, statistical inference for a correlation field, rather than a widely used T-field, has been implemented in the correlation analysis for more accurate results. An example with in vivo data is presented, demonstrating the potential of the BPM methodology as a tool for multimodal image analysis.