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Climate change impacts on the distribution of the allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the eastern United States
Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.
Journal Article
الذاكرة الأزلية : بوابتك إلى السلام الداخلي
سبعة وستون شخصا، مثلك ومثلي، استعادوا في هذا الكتاب، من خلال تقنية التنويم المغناطيسي، ذكريات حياة سابقة عاشوها. كشفت تفاصيل تلك الجلسات، التي يدرجها د. نيوتن هنا، نظم عالم كامل متكامل يضمنا أرواحا تسعى من خلال تقمصاتها على الأرض إلى التطور الدائم حتى الوصول إلى أعلى درجات المثالية، متحدية في كل حياة جديدة تختارها إخفاقاتها في حياة سابقة. أرواح قد تحمل معها من الماضي مخاوف وصدمات لا تفارقها في الجسد الجديد. هكذا، قد يعود رهاب المرتفعات أو رهاب الماء مثلا الذي يعاني منه شخص ما إلى ميتة عنيفة في حياة سابقة عبر سقوط من مكان شاهق أو غرق... حالات كثيرة ستضيء عليها تقارير من خضعوا لتجربة التنويم، ومعلومات كثيرة ستسردها كما رأتها في العالم الآخر. معطيات تكشف تفاصيل مذهلة عن مواضيع مثل : هدفنا على الأرض، الطرق التي تتواصل من خلالها الأرواح مع الأحياء لمواساتهم، المرشدون الروحيون، شركاء الروح، العلاقات بين المجموعات الروحية والعائلات البشرية، العلاقة بين الدماغ والروح، لماذا نعود في أجساد معينة.
Book
Trial of Solanezumab in Preclinical Alzheimer’s Disease
Trials of monoclonal antibodies that target various forms of amyloid at different stages of Alzheimer's disease have had mixed results.
We tested solanezumab, which targets monomeric amyloid, in a phase 3 trial involving persons with preclinical Alzheimer's disease. Persons 65 to 85 years of age with a global Clinical Dementia Rating score of 0 (range, 0 to 3, with 0 indicating no cognitive impairment and 3 severe dementia), a score on the Mini-Mental State Examination of 25 or more (range, 0 to 30, with lower scores indicating poorer cognition), and elevated brain amyloid levels on
F-florbetapir positron-emission tomography (PET) were enrolled. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive solanezumab at a dose of up to 1600 mg intravenously every 4 weeks or placebo. The primary end point was the change in the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC) score (calculated as the sum of four z scores, with higher scores indicating better cognitive performance) over a period of 240 weeks.
A total of 1169 persons underwent randomization: 578 were assigned to the solanezumab group and 591 to the placebo group. The mean age of the participants was 72 years, approximately 60% were women, and 75% had a family history of dementia. At 240 weeks, the mean change in PACC score was -1.43 in the solanezumab group and -1.13 in the placebo group (difference, -0.30; 95% confidence interval, -0.82 to 0.22; P = 0.26). Amyloid levels on brain PET increased by a mean of 11.6 centiloids in the solanezumab group and 19.3 centiloids in the placebo group. Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA) with edema occurred in less than 1% of the participants in each group. ARIA with microhemorrhage or hemosiderosis occurred in 29.2% of the participants in the solanezumab group and 32.8% of those in the placebo group.
Solanezumab, which targets monomeric amyloid in persons with elevated brain amyloid levels, did not slow cognitive decline as compared with placebo over a period of 240 weeks in persons with preclinical Alzheimer's disease. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; A4 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02008357.).
Journal Article
أديان قديمة وسياسة حديثة : الحالة الإسلامية من منظور مقارن
يتناول كتاب أديان قديمة وسياسة حديثة : الحالة الإسلامية من منظور مقارن\" يمكننا القول إن أطروحة كوك حول \"الأمر بالمعروف والنهي عن المنكر\" تجري توسعتها الآن لتشمل المعروف أو المنكر الأكبر \"السياسة\" وقيادة الناس. والسؤال المركزي الذي يسطره المؤلف في الصفحات الأولى من كتابه ثم ينهمك في تقديم \"إجابة جزئية\" عليه، كما يقول بتواضع، هو التالي : \"لماذا بالإمكان فهم السياسة المعاصرة للهند أو أميركا اللاتينية بطريقة معقولة جدا من دون العودة إلى الأسماء التي لمعت في العصور الوسطى مثل مادهافا (في التاريخ الهندوسي) أو الأكويني (في التاريخ الكاثوليكي)، بينما لا يمكننا فهم السياسة في العالم الإسلامي الراهن من دون العودة إلى ابن تيمية ؟
Book
Trial of Solanezumab for Mild Dementia Due to Alzheimer’s Disease
In a randomized trial, solanezumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody against soluble amyloid, did not slow cognitive decline over a period of 80 weeks in patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease and with PET or CSF biomarkers of amyloid-related disease.
Journal Article
Forest restoration thinning accelerates development of old‐growth characteristics in the coastal Pacific Northwest, USA
A century of industrial‐scale management has transformed vast swaths of forest land across the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA, from ancient forests with complex structure and diverse habitats to young forests with simple structure and dominated by few species. Consequently, there have been calls to restore ecosystem integrity and resilience. Here, we apply data from a watershed‐scale experiment to determine if restoration treatments have achieved our management goal of accelerating the development of old‐growth forest characteristics. We provide empirical evidence of how restoration treatments have affected key old‐growth forest indicators resulting in larger trees, more complex vertical and horizontal forest structure, reduced stand density, and increased understory plant richness. Our study also demonstrates that some restoration indicators responded in counter‐intuitive ways contingent on interactions between stand age and restoration treatment. Through this work, we learned two important lessons: (1) more time and monitoring may be needed to fully understand the effects of restoration treatments and (2) a “one and done” approach of implementing restoration treatments may not achieve a full suite of old‐growth characteristics. Moreover, long‐term management for wildlife habitat and climate resilience will likely require an adaptive approach, with ongoing monitoring continually informing and adjusting management practices.
Journal Article
Mapping forest-based natural climate solutions
Natural climate solutions are critical actions of ecosystem stewardship to mitigate climate change. However, prioritizing locations and possible actions is challenging. We demonstrate a generalizable approach for identifying potential opportunities for natural climate solutions by creating a spatial hierarchy of land management restrictions. Global forest carbon stocks and flux models were then used to explore forest-based natural climate solutions in the high-carbon density coastal temperate rainforests of western North America. Our results show 13 million hectares are available for action, an area that holds 4,900 ± 640 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent and represents 45% of regional and 0.5% of global aboveground forest carbon stocks. Based on historical trends, a 10% reduction in average annual forest carbon loss through improved forest management and conservation could reduce forest carbon emissions by 9.1 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, corresponding to 5.2% of the 2030 land-based climate commitments made by the United States and Canada. Large-scale implementation of natural climate solutions will require collaborative planning with forest-dependent communities, industry, governments, and Indigenous peoples.In the coastal temperate rainforests of western North America, the reduction of forest loss by improved management and conservation could reduce forest greenhouse gas emissions, according to an analysis using global forest carbon stocks and flux models and landownership data.
Journal Article
A CONNECTION BETWEEN SCOTT—VOGELIUS AND GRAD-DIV STABILIZED TAYLOR—HOOD FE APPROXIMATIONS OF THE NAVIER—STOKES EQUATIONS
This article studies two methods for obtaining excellent mass conservation in finite element computations of the Navier—Stokes equations using continuous velocity fields. With a particular mesh construction, the Scott—Vogelius element pair has recently been shown to be inf-sup stable and have optimal approximation properties, while also providing pointwise mass conservation. We present herein the first numerical tests of this element pair for the time dependent Navier—Stokes equations. We also prove that the limit of the grad-div stabilized Taylor—Hood solutions to the Navier—Stokes problem converges to the Scott—Vogelius solution as the stabilization parameter tends to infinity. That is, we provide theoretical justification that choosing the grad-div parameter large does not destroy the solution. Numerical tests are provided which verify the theory and show how both Scott—Vogelius and grad-div stabilized Taylor—Hood (with large stabilization parameter) elements can provide accurate results with excellent mass conservation for Navier—Stokes approximations.
Journal Article
Forest Restoration Thinning Has Minimal Impacts on Surface Soil Carbon in a Second-Growth Temperate Rainforest
Forest restoration thinning may accelerate the development of structural complexity toward old-growth conditions faster than a natural forest, yet associated changes in forest carbon (C) are poorly understood. Old-growth forests are characterized by high levels of sequestered C in aboveground biomass and soil C pools, yet active management has well-recognized negative impacts on stored C. Effects of forest restoration thinning on forest C can be determined using longitudinal measurements and modeling based on stand conditions and tree growth. At Ellsworth Creek Preserve in Southwest Washington, forest restoration efforts in a second-growth temperate rainforest have been monitored using permanent plots since 2007. Here, we compare repeat measurements from 2020, modeled forest C, and measurements of O-horizon C pools from 2022 to determine C impacts of silvicultural treatments for old-growth restoration. We found good general agreement between empirical measurements and models of forest C using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). However, treatment alone was not a strong indicator for C conditions; rather, forest age and age–treatment interactions better predicted soil C responses to restoration treatments. These data may indicate that “light” forest restoration thinning can accelerate old-growth development with minimal effects on soil carbon—a win-win conservation strategy for old-growth forests and the climate.
Journal Article