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Recreational fishing is a pillar of the multibillion-dollar tourism sector in the Caribbean, supporting economic development and community livelihoods. However, as climate change drives increased habitat degradation, key recreational target species may experience declines. To effectively prioritize adaptation and mitigation efforts it is critical to project climate change impacts on recreational species and the communities that depend on them. We conducted a comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment (CVA) for three recreationally important tidal flats species in Belize and The Bahamas: bonefish ( Albula vulpes ), tarpon ( Megalops atlanticus ), and permit ( Trachinotus falcatus ). Species vulnerability was assessed by coupling 1) a research-based CVA to evaluate the sensitivity and exposure of species to climate impacts with 2) a participatory workshop involving 17 fishing guides, resource managers, and science and policy experts working in fisheries systems in Belize and/or The Bahamas. The workshop elicited local expert knowledge to resolve and contextualize CVA scoring and to identify strategies to increase climate resilience. According to the research-based CVA, key climate factors in the Caribbean are expected to see a ‘very high’ magnitude of change by 2050. All three species exhibit ‘very high’ vulnerability to these changes based on life history traits and reliance on nearshore habitats that are exposed to rapid temperature increases and storm damage. The expert stakeholder group confirmed a ‘very high’ magnitude of expected climate impacts in the Caribbean region, to which bonefish, the most valuable species, is likely to have a ‘very high’ vulnerability. However, stakeholders perceived tarpon and permit to be less vulnerable to these impacts than the CVA predicted, based on “on the water” observations of their habitat flexibility and resilience to disturbance. The group identified strategies at the individual, community, national, and international levels to enhance climate resilience in the recreational fishing sector. Our work highlights how participatory CVA processes can support a stronger understanding of species’ vulnerability while building capacity and collaboration to increase climate change readiness.

Biological invasions are a major driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. The scale and pace of these invasions often exceed resources available for control, necessitating long‐term management strategies that balance complex sustainability goals. A social‐ecological systems (SES) approach offers a promising framework to guide decision‐making by considering the interconnectedness of human and natural systems. This study focuses on the invasion of Indo‐Pacific lionfish in coastal Belize, demonstrating how operationalising a SES approach can guide the co‐design and selection of coastal management strategies to address the complexities of widespread invasive species. Over 6 years, SES models were developed, refined, and applied to management through a participatory approach involving transdisciplinary knowledge holders and stakeholders. Initially, a broad conceptual model of the coastal system post‐invasion was developed and refined to identify key attributes quantifiable as indicators of the system's response to lionfish suppression efforts on the Belize Barrier Reef. This SES model was used to generate and evaluate potential management scenarios within the Belize National Lionfish Management Strategy. A market‐based approach, which introduced lionfish as a fishery target and incentivised lionfish tourism and a commercial fishery, emerged as the most effective strategy to reduce lionfish populations in Belize. Our approach provides a framework for engaging diverse perspectives and expertise, leading to co‐developed management actions with broad national support. The study underscores the value of SES framing in creating a holistic perspective on invasive species management, integrating ecological and social dimensions. Ultimately, our method of iteratively developing and refining SES models through participatory processes—from a complex conceptual model to a practical, indicator‐driven framework—can be adapted to create and assess durable solutions for managing widespread invasive species in stressed ecosystems worldwide. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.