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An unusually damaging Mw 4.9 earthquake occurred on November 11, 2019 in the south east of France within the lower Rhône river valley, an industrial region that hosts several operating nuclear power plants. The hypocentre of this event occurred at an exceptionally shallow depth of about 1 km. Here we use far-field seismological observations to demonstrate that the rupture properties are consistent with those commonly observed for large deeper earthquakes. In the absence of strong motion sensors in the fault vicinity, we perform numerical predictions of the ground acceleration on a virtual array of near-fault stations. These predictions are in agreement with independent quantitative estimations of ground acceleration from in-situ observations of displaced objects. Both numerical and in-situ analyses converge toward estimates of an exceptional level of ground acceleration in the fault vicinity, that locally exceeded gravity, and explain the unexpectedly significant damage. The 2019 Le Teil earthquake caused shaking and ground acceleration exceeding gravity and far greater than the levels expected for such a moderate sized earthquake, according to a combination of numerical predictions and in-situ observations.

We developed a ground-motion simulation code base on extended rupture modeling combined with the use of empirical Green’s functions (EGFs), adapted for low-to-moderate seismicity regions (with a limited set of EGFs), and extended its range of applicability to the lowest source-to-site distances. This code is based on a kinematic source description of an extended fault and is designed to allow complex fault geometries and to generate a ground motion variability in agreement with that of the recorded databases. The code is developed to work with a sparse set of EGFs. Each available EGF is therefore used in several positions on the rupture area. To be used in positions different of their original position, we applied to the EGFs some adjustments. In addition to the classical adjustments (i.e. time delay correction, geometrical spreading correction and anelastic attenuation correction), we propose here a radiation pattern adjustment. The effectiveness of it is tested in a numerical application. We showed noticeable improvements at the lowest distances, and some limitations when approaching the nodal planes of the subevents the recording of which were used as EGFs. We took advantage of the development of this code, its ability to work with a sparse set of EGFs, its ability to take into account complex fault geometries and its ability to master the general variability, to perform a ground-motion simulation scenario on the Middle Durance Fault (MDF). We perform simulations for a hard rock site (VS30 = 1800 m/s) and a sediment site (VS30 = 440 m/s) of the CEA Nuclear Research Site of Cadarache (France), and compared the computed ground motion with several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The GMPEs slightly underestimate the sediment site but strongly overestimate the ground motion amplitude on the hard rock site, even when using a specific correction factor which adapts GMPEs predictions from rock site to hard rock site. This general ascertainment confirms the need to continue efforts towards the establishment of consistent GMPEs applicable to hard-rock conditions.

This article investigates different approaches for assessing the degree of roughness of the slip distribution of future earthquakes. First, we analyze a database of slip images extracted from a suite of 152 finite‐source rupture models from 80 events (Mw = 4.1–8.9). This results in an empirical model defining the distribution of the slip spectrum corner wave numbers (kc) as a function of moment magnitude. To reduce the “epistemic” uncertainty, we select a single slip model per event and screen out poorly resolved models. The number of remaining models (30) is thus rather small. In addition, the robustness of the empirical model rests on a reliable estimation of kc by kinematic inversion methods. We address this issue by performing tests on synthetic data with a frequency domain inversion method. These tests reveal that due to smoothing constraints used to stabilize the inversion process, kc tends to be underestimated. We then develop an alternative approach: (1) we establish a proportionality relationship between kc and the peak ground acceleration (PGA), using a k−2 kinematic source model, and (2) we analyze the PGA distribution, which is believed to be better constrained than slip images. These two methods reveal that kc follows a lognormal distribution, with similar standard deviations for both methods.

Our study focuses on predicting topographic amplification of ground motion in the near-source region, where seismic rays reach the free-surface at varying incidence angles. We rely on data from previous 3D numerical simulations conducted on a topographic relief with a homogeneous medium. First, using neural networks, we identify which key parameters, describing the geometric characteristics of the relief relative to the seismic source position, control ground motion amplification. Then, we determine the functional form that relates these parameters to the simulated amplifications. Subsequently, we conduct a regression study to develop a model of topographic amplification, referred to as the i-FSC proxy (Illuminated Frequency-Scaled Curvature). Our estimator depends on the frequency-scaled (1) curvature, a parameter that accounts for the occurrence of amplifications over convex topographies and de-amplification over concave ones; (2) normalized illumination angle, a newly defined parameter that quantifies the slope exposure to the incoming wavefield, accounting for high amplification on slopes oriented opposite to the seismic source. The illumination parameter reduces the uncertainties of the proxy by a factor of 2 compared to estimators that rely solely on curvature. The proxy does not require high computational resources. It uses a digital elevation map and a seismic source position to predict amplification factors (without lithological effects) for an S -wave at any site on the surface topography. It allows exploration of variations in topographic amplification near seismic sources, representing a significant breakthrough as areas closest to the fault typically sustain the highest damages. A MATLAB script performing the i-FSC calculations is provided.

Empirical ground motion prediction equations are calibrated from past earthquake seismic recordings. Although they are often used to predict Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and its variability, the use of these equations to predict near-fault PGA remains questionable due to the scarcity of near-fault recordings for large earthquakes (e.g. Mai Encyclopedia of complexity and systems science (pp. 4435–4474). New York: Springer. 10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_263. 2009). The simulation of strong ground motion offers an attractive alternative for the assessment of near-fault seismic hazards, but the a priori choice of the source parameters used to describe the fault rupture process remains a complex issue. In order to better understand the effects of rupture parameters on surface ground motion and to capture the key source ingredients that impact ground motion variability, we simulated ground motions produced by various M7 strike-slip rupture earthquake scenarios on vertical faults. We computed ground motion up to 5 Hz using the far-field approximation as well as at the near-field stations located at 5 km, 25 km and 70 km from the fault (assuming a visco-elastic medium). The kinematic rupture parameters are modeled using a statistical rupture model generator as proposed by Song et al. Geophysical Journal International,196(3), 1770–1786 (2014). Our work demonstrates that PGA is mostly generated by abrupt changes in the rupture propagation (e.g. stopping phases at the fault boundaries or strong heterogeneities of rupture speed along the fault). We observed that PGA is mostly controlled by average rupture speed and average stress drop (in the far-field), and to a lesser extent by the standard deviation of the rupture speed. It is worth noting that for the set of stations in study, the correlation between source parameters and spatial correlation length does not affect average PGA and related variability significantly.

The strike slip Yammouneh fault is the longest fault in Lebanon, crossing the territory from South to North. It was responsible for major historical earthquakes like the 1202 A.D. earthquake, estimated to M s 7.6. This paper presents a site-specific estimation of the ground motion caused by a potential M w 7.5 earthquake on the Yammouneh fault, similar to the 1202 event, for various sites within the Beirut area. The empirical Green’s function technique EGF is used to estimate the median and the standard deviations of the seismic ground motion at the reference station BHL, taking into account epistemic and aleatory uncertainties related to source parameters. These uncertainties were quantified through a sensitivity analysis of the position of the rupture nucleation X nuc , the slip roughness parameter K, the corner frequency f c and the magnitude M c of the EGF. The rock ground motion is then transferred to various other sites within the Beirut area, using instrumental Fourier transfer functions. Site amplification factors are next deduced by computing the ratio between response spectra at sediment sites and at a reference rock station. Considering the limits of the EGF method in the near field of extended sources, the EGF approach is considered only up to a magnitude M w of 6.5. Selected Ground Motion Predictive Equations are then used to simulate a M w 7.5 event at a reference station. By applying the amplification factors, the response spectra at the different sites of Beirut are also calculated and compared with the actual response spectra used in the Lebanese regulations.

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on data-based ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is difficult to obtain a reliable ground motion prediction for such a class of events and distances where also the largest amount of damage is usually observed. A possible strategy to fill this lack of information is to generate synthetic accelerograms based on an accurate modeling of both extended fault rupture and wave propagation process. The development of such modeling strategies is essential for estimating seismic hazard close to faults in moderate seismic activity zones, where data are even scarcer. For that reason, we selected a target site in Upper Rhine Graben (URG), at the French–German border. URG is a region where faults producing micro-seismic activity are very close to the sites of interest (e.g., critical infrastructures like supply lines, nuclear power plants, etc.) needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of performing near-fault broadband ground motion numerical simulations in a moderate seismic activity region such as URG and discuss some of the challenges related to such an application. The modeling strategy is to couple the multi-empirical Green’s function technique (multi-EGFt) with a k −2 kinematic source model. One of the advantages of the multi-EGFt is that it does not require a detailed knowledge of the propagation medium since the records of small events are used as the medium transfer function, if, at the target site, records of small earthquakes located on the target fault are available. The selection of suitable events to be used as multi-EGF is detailed and discussed in our specific situation where less number of events are available. We then showed the impact that each source parameter characterizing the k −2 model has on ground motion amplitude. Finally we performed ground motion simulations showing results for different probable earthquake scenarios in the URG. Dependency of ground motions and of their variability are analyzed at different frequencies in respect of rupture velocity, roughness degree of slip distribution (stress drop), and hypocenter location. In near-source conditions, ground motion variability is shown to be mostly governed by the uncertainty on source parameters. In our specific configuration (magnitude, distance), the directivity effect is only observed in a limited frequency range. Rather, broadband ground motions are shown to be sensitive to both average rupture velocity and its possible variability, and to slip roughness. Ending up with a comparison of simulation results and GMPEs, we conclude that source parameters and their variability should be set up carefully to obtain reliable broadband ground motion estimations. In particular, our study shows that slip roughness should be set up in respect of the target stress drop. This entails the need for a better understanding of the physics of earthquake source and its incorporation in the ground motion modeling.

The two main earthquakes that occurred in 2012 (May 20 and 29) in the Reggio-Emiliano region (Northern Italy) were relatively small (Mw 6.1 and Mw 5.9) but they generated unexpected damages in a large area around the epicenter. On some stations, the observed seismic levels exceeded design levels recommended by the EC8 seismic code for buildings and civil engineering works. The ground motions generated by the two mainshocks have specific characteristics: the waveforms are mainly controlled by surface waves generated by the deep sedimentary Po plain, by local site effects and also, on some stations, by non-linear behaviors. In this particular context, we test the ability of an empirical Green’s function (EGF) simulation approach to reproduce the recorded seismograms in a large frequency band without any knowledge of the underground medium. We focus on the possibility to reproduce the strong surface waves generated by the basin at distances between 25 and 90 km. We choose to work on the second mainshock of the sequence (Mw 5.9), which occurred on May 29, 2012, because it is better recorded by the seismological networks than the May 20th first mainshock. We use a k-2 kinematic source model to generate a set of 100 slip distributions on the fault plane and choose the recordings of a close-by Mw 3.9 event as EGF. We then generate a set of broad-band seismograms (from 0.2 to 35 Hz) and compare them to the mainshock signals at 15 stations (Seismograms, Fourier spectra, PGA, PGV, duration, Stockwell Transforms) at epicentral distances from 5 to 160 km. We find that the main specific features of the signals are very well reproduced for all the stations within and beyond the basin. Nevertheless, at nearby stations, the PGA values are over-evaluated, which could be explained by the fact that non- linear effects are not taken into account in the simulation process. A better fit was found for a position of the nucleation point to the bottom west of the fault, that suggest a directivity effect of the rupture process of the May 29th event towards the North–East.

Abstract An unusually damaging Mw 4.9 earthquake occurred on November 11, 2019 in the south east of France within the lower Rhône river valley, an industrial region that hosts several operating nuclear power plants. The hypocentre of this event occurred at an exceptionally shallow depth of about 1 km. Here we use far-field seismological observations to demonstrate that the rupture properties are consistent with those commonly observed for large deeper earthquakes. In the absence of strong motion sensors in the fault vicinity, we perform numerical predictions of the ground acceleration on a virtual array of near-fault stations. These predictions are in agreement with independent quantitative estimations of ground acceleration from in-situ observations of displaced objects. Both numerical and in-situ analyses converge toward estimates of an exceptional level of ground acceleration in the fault vicinity, that locally exceeded gravity, and explain the unexpectedly significant damage.

On November 11, 2019, a M w 4.9 earthquake hit the region close to Montelimar (lower Rhône Valley, France), on the eastern margin of the Massif Central close to the external part of the Alps. Occuring in a moderate seismicity area, this earthquake is remarkable for its very shallow focal depth (between 1 and 3 km), its magnitude, and the moderate to large damages it produced in several villages. InSAR interferograms indicated a shallow rupture about 4 km long reaching the surface and the reactivation of the ancient NE–SW La Rouvière normal fault in reverse faulting in agreement with the present-day E–W compressional tectonics. The peculiarity of this earthquake together with a poor coverage of the epicentral region by permanent seismological and geodetic stations triggered the mobilisation of the French post-seismic unit and the broad French scientific community from various institutions, with the deployment of geophysical instruments (seismological and geodesic stations), geological field surveys, and field evaluation of the intensity of the earthquake. Within 7 days after the mainshock, 47 seismological stations were deployed in the epicentral area to improve the Le Teil aftershocks locations relative to the French permanent seismological network (RESIF), monitor the temporal and spatial evolution of microearthquakes close to the fault plane and temporal evolution of the seismic response of 3 damaged historical buildings, and to study suspected site effects and their influence in the distribution of seismic damage. This seismological dataset, completed by data owned by different institutions, was integrated in a homogeneous archive and distributed through FDSN web services by the RESIF data center. This dataset, together with observations of surface rupture evidences, geologic, geodetic and satellite data, will help to unravel the causes and rupture mechanism of this earthquake, and contribute to account in seismic hazard assessment for earthquakes along the major regional Cévenne fault system in a context of present-day compressional tectonics.