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We examine the average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. For each country affected by a large disaster, we compute the counterfactual by constructing synthetic controls. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output in both the short and the long runs. However, we also show that this results from two events where radical political revolutions followed the disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth.

This article makes an initial assessment of the monetary damages caused by the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Damages are estimated for a disaster with both 200,000 and 250,000 total dead and missing, using Haiti's economic and demographic data. The base estimate is US$8.1bn, but for several reasons this may be a lower-bound estimate. While the results are subject to many caveats, including possibly high forecast error, the implications of such an estimate are significant. Raising such a figure will require many donors. Hence excellent coordination of funding and execution will be key to ensuring the efficient use of funds.

Contrary to widespread presumption, a surprisingly large number of countries have been able to finance a significant fraction of their investment for extended periods using foreign finance. While many of these episodes are in countries where official finance is important, we also identify episodes where a substantial fraction of domestic investment is financed by private capital inflows. Although there is evidence of a positive growth effect of such inflows in the short run, that positive impact dissipates after 5 years and turns negative over longer horizons. Many such episodes end abruptly, with compression of the current account and sharp slowdowns in investment and growth. Summing over the inflow (current account deficit) episode and its aftermath, we find that growth is slower than when countries rely on domestic savings. The implication is that financing growth and investment out of foreign savings, while not impossible, is risky and too often counterproductive.

This introduction seeks to provide context for the papers included in this special issue by drawing on the broader literature. Salient development challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, which can be aggravated by climate change, are low economic growth, high poverty and inequality, and fiscal vulnerabilities. This paper summarizes some of the evidence on the economic implications of climate change with an emphasis on the evidence pertaining to Latin America and the Caribbean; and how the research papers included in this special issue provide answers for some of the relevant and remaining questions about this topic.

This paper describes the flows of aid after large catastrophic natural disasters by using the extensive record of bilateral aid flows, by aid sector, available through the OECD's Development Assistance Committee. For each large donor, the extent of cross-sector reallocation is identified that is occurring in the aftermath of large disasters whereby humanitarian aid increases but other types of aid may decrease. The evidence in this paper suggests that the expectation of large surges in post-disaster aid flows is not warranted given the past diversity of experience of global foreign post-disaster aid by donor and by event. No evidence is found, however, that donors reallocate aid between recipient countries (cross-recipient reallocation). These observations suggest that countries which are predicted to face increasing losses from natural disasters in the coming decades (and almost all are) should be devoting significant resources to prevention, insurance and mitigation, rather than expecting significant post-disaster aid inflows.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) made its first appearance in 1956, and since then it has progressively introduced itself in healthcare systems and patients’ information and care. AI functions can be grouped under the following headings: Machine Learning (ML), Deep Learning (DL), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Computer Vision (CV). Biomimetic intelligence (BI) applies the principles of systems of nature to create biological algorithms, such as genetic and neural network, to be used in different scenarios. Chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) represents the last stage of peripheral artery disease (PAD) and has increased over recent years, together with the rise in prevalence of diabetes and population ageing. Nowadays, AI and BI grant the possibility of developing new diagnostic and treatment solutions in the vascular field, given the possibility of accessing clinical, biological, and imaging data. By assessing the vascular anatomy in every patient, as well as the burden of atherosclerosis, and classifying the level and degree of disease, sizing and planning the best endovascular treatment, defining the perioperative complications risk, integrating experiences and resources between different specialties, identifying latent PAD, thus offering evidence-based solutions and guiding surgeons in the choice of the best surgical technique, AI and BI challenge the role of the physician’s experience in PAD treatment.

Using panel cointegration techniques and a comprehensive data set covering the period 1980–2013, this paper finds a positive and significant correlation between national saving and domestic investment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean. The estimated correlation is approximately 0.39; that is, for every one percentage point of GDP increase in national saving, domestic investment increases by 0.39 percentage points, on average. There are, however, three nuances to the headline result: (i) the estimated correlation has been declining over time; (ii) the regional average hides a large degree of intraregional heterogeneity; and (iii) the estimated coefficient is largest among the biggest economies in the region. Low national saving rates remain a binding constraint for capital accumulation in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster‐prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This article examines the vulnerability of Belize's public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The article finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies.

Recent catastrophic natural disasters, such as the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, and the Haitian earthquake of 2010, have received more international attention than previous disasters, yet our rapidly evolving understanding regarding their relevance to economic development and growth is still in its infancy. Much research in the social sciences, and even more in the natural sciences, has been devoted to increasing our ability to predict disasters and prepare for them. Interestingly, however, the economic research on natural disasters and their consequences is fairly limited. We summarize here the state of this literature and point to questions that we believe need further probing. [PUB ABSTRACT]