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Global patterns of regional (gamma) plant diversity are relatively well known, but whether these patterns hold for local communities, and the dependence on spatial grain, remain controversial. Using data on 170,272 georeferenced local plant assemblages, we created global maps of alpha diversity (local species richness) for vascular plants at three different spatial grains, for forests and non-forests. We show that alpha diversity is consistently high across grains in some regions (for example, Andean-Amazonian foothills), but regional ‘scaling anomalies’ (deviations from the positive correlation) exist elsewhere, particularly in Eurasian temperate forests with disproportionally higher fine-grained richness and many African tropical forests with disproportionally higher coarse-grained richness. The influence of different climatic, topographic and biogeographical variables on alpha diversity also varies across grains. Our multi-grain maps return a nuanced understanding of vascular plant biodiversity patterns that complements classic maps of biodiversity hotspots and will improve predictions of global change effects on biodiversity. Global patterns of regional plant diversity are relatively well known, but whether they hold for local communities is debated. This study created multi-grain global maps of alpha diversity for vascular plants to provide a nuanced understanding of plant diversity hotspots and improve predictions of global change effects on biodiversity.

Regulation of agricultural pests managing their natural enemies represents an alternative to chemical pesticides. We assessed the potential of insectivorous birds as pest regulators in woody crops located in central Spain. A total of 417 nest boxes installed in five field study sites (one vineyard, two fruit orchards, and two olive groves) were monitored for use and breeding of insectivorous birds and other species for four consecutive years (2013-2016). At all field sites except the two olive groves, where birds never occupied the nest boxes, predation experiments were conducted with Greater wax moth (Galleria mellonella) sentinel caterpillars, and food consumption by birds was estimated. Nesting of insectivorous birds, chiefly Great tit (Parus major), and sparrows (Passer domesticus and P. montanus) increased over time, averaging 60% per field site in the vineyard and fruit orchards by the fourth year. Use of nest boxes by sparrows and by Garden dormouse (Eliomys quercinus) was high at the fruit orchards (70%) and the vineyard (30%), respectively. Micro-habitat characteristics (nest box level) and meso-habitat characteristics (patch level) strongly affected use of nest boxes and bird breeding (i.e. number of laid eggs and produced chicks) in different years. Distance to natural or semi-natural vegetation did not consistently affect bird breeding, nor did we see consistent evidence of competition between adjacent breeding birds. Predation rates of sentinel caterpillars were approximately one-third higher near boxes with nesting birds (31.51 ± 43.13%) than at paired distant areas without nest boxes (22.45% ± 38.58%). Food consumption by insectivorous birds per ha and breeding season were conservatively estimated to range from 0.02 kg in one fruit orchard to 0.15 kg in the vineyard. We conclude that installation of nest boxes in Mediterranean woody crops enhances populations of insectivorous birds that regulate pests, but that the effects are moderate and highly context-dependent.

Ground cover vegetation is often added or allowed to generate to promote conservation biological control, especially in perennial crops. Nevertheless, there is inconsistent evidence of its effectiveness, with studies reporting positive, nil or negative effects on pest control. This might arise from differences between studies at the local scale (e.g. orchard management and land use history), the landscape context (e.g. presence of patches of natural or semi-natural vegetation near the focal orchard), or regional factors, particularly climate in the year of the study. Here we present the findings from a long-term regional monitoring program conducted on four pest species (Bactrocera oleae, Prays oleae, Euphyllura olivina, Saissetia oleae) in 2,528 olive groves in Andalusia (Spain) from 2006 to 2012. Generalized linear mixed effect models were used to analyze the effect of ground cover on different response variables related to pest abundance, while accounting for variability at the local, landscape and regional scales. There were small and inconsistent effects of ground cover on the abundance of pests whilst local, landscape and regional variability explained a large proportion of the variability in pest response variables. This highlights the importance of local and landscape-related variables in biological control and the potential effects that might emerge from their interaction with practices, such as groundcover vegetation, implemented to promote natural enemy activity. The study points to perennial vegetation close to the focal crop as a promising alternative strategy for conservation biological control that should receive more attention.

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061–2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region’s (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species’ vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58–67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species’ relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

The statistical framework of rarefaction curves and asymptotic estimators allows for an effective standardization of biodiversity measures. However, most statistical analyses still consist of point comparisons of diversity estimators for a particular sampling level. We introduce new randomization methods that incorporate sampling variability encompassing the entire length of the rarefaction curve and allow for statistical comparison of i ≥2 individual-based, sample-based, or coverage-based rarefaction curves. These methods distinguish between two distinct null hypotheses: the ecological null hypothesis ( H 0eco ) and the biogeographical null hypothesis ( H 0biog ). H 0eco states that the i samples were drawn from a single assemblage, and any differences among them in species richness, composition, or relative abundance reflect only sampling effects. H 0biog states that the i samples were drawn from assemblages that differ in their species composition but share similar species richness and species abundance distributions. To test H 0eco , we created a composite rarefaction curve by summing the abundances of all species from the i samples. We then calculated a test statistic Z eco , the (cumulative) summed areas of difference between each of the i individual curves and the composite curve. For H 0biog , the test statistic Z biog was calculated by summing the area of difference between all possible pairs of the i individual curves. Bootstrap sampling from the composite curve ( H 0eco ) or random sampling from different simulated assemblages using alternative abundance distributions ( H 0biog ) was used to create the null distribution of Z , and to provide a frequentist test of Z | H 0 . Rejection of H 0eco does not pinpoint whether the samples differ in species richness, species composition, and/or relative abundance. In benchmark comparisons, both tests performed satisfactorily against artificial data sets randomly drawn from a single assemblage (low Type I error). In benchmark comparisons with different species abundance distributions and richness, the tests had adequate power to detect differences among curves (low Type II error), although power diminished at small sample sizes and for small differences among underlying species rank abundances.

Tropical montane forests (TMFs) play an important role as a carbon reservoir at a global scale. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding on the variation in carbon storage across TMF compartments [namely aboveground biomass (AGB), belowground biomass (BGB), and soil organic matter] along altitudinal and environmental gradients and their potential trade-offs. This study aims to: 1) understand how carbon stocks vary along altitudinal gradients in Andean TMFs, and; 2) determine the influence of climate, particularly precipitation seasonality, on the distribution of carbon stocks across different forest compartments. The study was conducted in sixty 0.1 ha plots along two altitudinal gradients at the Podocarpus National Park (Ecuador) and Río Abiseo National Park (Peru). At each plot, we calculated the amount of carbon in AGB (i.e. aboveground carbon stock, AGC), BGB (i.e. belowground carbon stock, BGC), and soil organic matter (i.e. soil organic carbon stock, SOC). The mean total carbon stock was 244.76 ± 80.38 Mg ha and 211.51 ± 46.95 Mg ha in the Ecuadorian and Peruvian plots, respectively. Although AGC, BGC, and SOC showed different partitioning patterns along the altitudinal gradient both in Ecuador and Peru, total carbon stock did not change with altitude in either site. The combination of annual mean temperature and precipitation seasonality explained differences in the observed patterns of carbon stocks across forest compartments between the two sites. This study suggests that the greater precipitation seasonality of colder, higher altitudes may promote faster turnover rates of organic matter and nutrients and, consequently, less accumulation of SOC but greater AGC and BGC, compared to those sites with lesser precipitation seasonality. Our results demonstrate the capacity of TMFs to store substantial amounts of carbon and suggest the existence of a trade-off in carbon stocks among forest compartments, which could be partly driven by differences in precipitation seasonality, especially under the colder temperatures of high altitudes.

Understanding and predicting the likely response of ecosystems to climate change are crucial challenges for ecology and for conservation biology. Nowhere is this challenge greater than in the tropics as these forests store more than half the total atmospheric carbon stock in their biomass. Biomass is determined by the balance between biomass inputs (i.e., growth) and outputs (mortality). We can expect therefore that conditions that favor high growth rates, such as abundant water supply, warmth, and nutrient-rich soils will tend to correlate with high biomass stocks. Our main objective is to describe the patterns of above ground biomass (AGB) stocks across major tropical forests across climatic gradients in Northwestern South America. We gathered data from 200 plots across the region, at elevations ranging between 0 to 3400 m. We estimated AGB based on allometric equations and values for stem density, basal area, and wood density weighted by basal area at the plot-level. We used two groups of climatic variables, namely mean annual temperature and actual evapotranspiration as surrogates of environmental energy, and annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, and water availability as surrogates of water availability. We found that AGB is more closely related to water availability variables than to energy variables. In northwest South America, water availability influences carbon stocks principally by determining stand structure, i.e. basal area. When water deficits increase in tropical forests we can expect negative impact on biomass and hence carbon storage.

Case studies of land use change have suggested that deforestation across Southern Mexico is accelerating. However, forest transition theory predicts that trajectories of change can be modified by economic factors, leading to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in rates of change that may take the form of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). This study aimed to assess the evidence regarding potential forest transition in Southern Mexico by classifying regional forest cover change using Landsat imagery from 1990 through to 2006. Patterns of forest cover change were found to be complex and non-linear. When rates of forest loss were averaged over 342 municipalities using mixed-effects modelling the results showed a significant (p<0.001) overall reduction of the mean rate of forest loss from 0.85% per year in the 1990-2000 period to 0.67% in the 2000-2006 period. The overall regional annual rate of deforestation has fallen from 0.33% to 0.28% from the 1990s to 2000s. A high proportion of the spatial variability in forest cover change cannot be explained statistically. However analysis using spline based general additive models detected underlying relationships between forest cover and income or population density of a form consistent with the EKC. The incipient forest transition has not, as yet, resulted in widespread reforestation. Forest recovery remains below 0.20% per year. Reforestation is mostly the result of passive processes associated with reductions in the intensity of land use. Deforestation continues to occur at high rates in some focal areas. A transition could be accelerated if there were a broader recognition among policy makers that the regional rate of forest loss has now begun to fall. The changing trajectory provides an opportunity to actively restore forest cover through stimulating afforestation and stimulating more sustainable land use practices. The results have clear implications for policy aimed at carbon sequestration through reducing deforestation and enhancing forest growth.

Distinguishing between natural forests from exotic tree plantations is essential to get an accurate picture of the world's state of forests. Most exotic tree plantations support lower levels of biodiversity and have less potential for ecosystem services supply than natural forests, and differencing them is still a challenge using standard tools. We use a novel approach in south-central of Chile to differentiate tree cover dynamics among natural forests and exotic tree plantations. Chile has one of the world's most competitive forestry industry and the region is a global biodiversity hotspot. Our collaborative visual interpretation method combined a global database of tree cover change, remote sensing from high-resolution satellite images and expert knowledge. By distinguishing exotic tree plantation and natural forest loss, we fit spatially explicit models to estimate tree-cover loss across 40 millions of ha between 2000 and 2016. We were able to distinguish natural forests from exotic tree plantations with an overall accuracy of 99% and predicted forest loss. Total tree cover loss was continuous over time, and the disaggregation revealed that 1 549 909 ha of tree plantations were lost (mean = 96 869 ha year−1), while 206 142 ha corresponded to natural forest loss (mean = 12 884 ha year−1). Mostly of tree plantations lost returned to be plantation (51%). Natural forests were converted mainly (75%) to transitional land covers (e.g. shrubland, bare land, grassland), and an important proportion of these may finish as tree plantation. This replacement may undermine objectives of increasedcarbon storage and biodiversity. Tree planting as a solution has gained increased attention in recen years with ambitious commitments to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, negative outcomes for the environment could result if strategies incentivize the replacement of natural forests into other land covers. Initiatives to reduce carbon emissions should encourage differentiating natural forests from exotic tree plantations and pay more attention on protecting and managing sustainably the former.

Edaphic fauna is a major determinant of agricultural soil quality, but few studies have investigated soil fauna in different agroforestry systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of agroforestry plantations of Ilex paraguariensis on the abundance and composition of ants, earthworms, and nematodes in two agronomic systems, conventional and agroecological, and three plantation types (pathsides, agricultural field edges, and islets) in the Atlantic Forest in Paraguay. The study was conducted on 26 plots distributed in the different agronomic systems and plantation types (three plots per combination of agronomic system and plantation type, with a total of 18 plots, plus eight control plots). We compared agroforestry plots with non-agroforestry plots and with natural forests. Eighteen individuals of different native species (Cordia americana, Cedrela fissilis, Handroanthus impetiginosus, Handroanthus albus, Peltophorum dubium, and Cordia trichotoma) were planted in each plot, together with five individuals of I. paraguariensis (total of 2300 individuals ha−1). The agroforestry scheme increased the abundance and improved the composition of beneficial soil fauna in the two agricultural systems. The agroecological system showed 238% higher abundance of ants and 90% higher abundance of earthworms than the conventional one. In both systems, the agroforestry scheme led to lower abundance of deleterious Atta sexden and Acromyrmex spp. leafcutter ants and higher abundance of beneficial species. The three plantation types increased the abundance of beneficial species. Agroforestry plots, particularly those in an agroecological system, were more similar to reference forest than to non-agroforestry plots. Our results suggest that the composition of soil fauna at the study site was significantly affected by the agroforestry scheme and, agronomic system, but not by plantation type. These results support the advantages of agroforestry and agroecological systems for favoring the diversity of soil fauna and related ecosystem services, which may help guide the design of successful agroforestry interventions.