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"Cervero, Robert"
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Linking urban transport and land use in developing countries
The mobility challenges of the developing world are considerably different than those in wealthier, advanced countries, and so are the challenges of coordinating transportation and land use. Rapid population growth, poverty and income disparities, overcrowded urban cores, poorly designed road networks, spatial mismatches between housing and jobs, deteriorating environmental conditions, and economic losses from extreme traffic by congestion are among the more vexing challenges faced by developing cities that could be assuaged through improved coordination of transportation and urban development. This is underscored by examples reviewed in this paper from South Asia, Southeast Asia, China, India, Africa, and South America. It is concluded that whatever is done to improve transportation and land-use integration must be pro-poor. The cardinal features of integrated and sustainable transport and urbanism everywhere—accessible urban activities and safe, attractive walking and cycling environs—are particularly vital to the welfare and prosperity of urbanites in the world's poorest countries.
Journal Article
Rail and Property Development in Hong Kong: Experiences and Extensions
Hong Kong has aggressively pursued transit value capture to finance railway infrastructure through its ‘Rail + Property’ development programme, or R+P. More than half of all income to the railway operators comes from property development. Most R+P projects focus on housing although all have some commercial development. Recent generation R+P projects have stressed pedestrian quality. This research shows this has in turn increased ridership and housing prices. An R+P station with a transit-oriented design averages 35 000 additional weekday passengers. Housing price premiums in the range of 5—30 per cent were found. Hong Kong’s R+P model, it is suggested, is well suited for financing rail infrastructure and advancing transit-oriented designs in the rapidly growing cities of mainland China.
Journal Article
Alternative Approaches to Modeling the Travel-Demand Impacts of Smart Growth
Four-step travel demand forecasting models were never meant to estimate the travel impacts of neighborhood-level smart growth initiatives like transit villages, but rather to guide regional highway and transit investments. While progress has been made in enhancing large-scale models, some analysts have turned to post-processing and direct models to reduce modeling time and cost, and to better capture the travel impacts of neighborhood-scale land use strategies. This paper presents examples of direct or off-line modeling of rail and transit-oriented land use proposals for greater Charlotte, the San Francisco Bay Area exurbs, and south St. Louis County. These alternative approaches provided a useful platform for scenario testing, and their results revealed that concentrating development near rail stations produced an appreciable ridership bonus. These alternative models are appropriate as sketch-planning supplements to, not substitutes for, traditional four-step models.
Journal Article
Walking, Bicycling, and Urban Landscapes: Evidence From the San Francisco Bay Area
Some claim that cardependent cities contribute to obesity by discouraging walking and bicycling. In this article, we use household activity data from the San Francisco region to study the links between urban environments and nonmotorized travel. We used factor analysis to represent the urban design and land-use diversity dimensions of built environments. Combining factor scores with control variables, like steep terrain, that gauge impediments to walking and bicycling, we estimated discrete-choice models. Builtenvironment factors exerted far weaker, although not inconsequential, influences on walking and bicycling than control variables. Stronger evidence on the importance of urban landscapes in shaping foot and bicycle travel is needed if the urban planning and public health professions are to forge an effective alliance against cardependent sprawl.
Journal Article
Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path Analysis
Claims that roadway investments spur new travel, known as induced demand, and thus fail to relieve traffic congestion have thwarted road development in the United States. Past studies point to a significant induced demand effect. This research employs a path model to causally sort out the links between freeway investments and traffic increases, using data for 24 California freeway projects across 15 years. Traffic increases are explained in terms of both faster travel speeds and land use shifts that occur in response to adding freeway lanes. While the path model confirms the presence of induced travel in both the short and longer run, estimated elasticities are lower than those of earlier studies. This research also reveals significant \"induced growth\" and \"induced investment\" effects-real estate development gravitates to improved freeways, and traffic increases spawn road investments over time. Travel-forecasting models are needed that account for these dynamics.
Journal Article
Beyond mobility : planning cities for people and places
Cities across the globe have been designed with a primary goal of moving people around quickly--and the costs are becoming ever more apparent.The consequences are measured in smoggy air basins, sprawling suburbs, unsafe pedestrian environments, and despite hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, a failure to stem traffic congestion.
eBook
Jobs-Housing Balance Revisited: Trends and Impacts in the San Francisco Bay Area
Regions in California have recently set jobs-housing balance targets, to relieve traffic congestion and improve air quality. Critics of such targets charge that many factors prevent people from living near their workplaces, and that market forces, left unobstructed, work to produce balance-that is, people and firms co-locate to reduce imbalances. This article examines changes in the ratios of jobs to employed residents in 23 large San Francisco Bay Area cities during the 1980s. Imbalances were found to have declined generally, mainly because dormitory communities in 1980 had attracted businesses by 1990. However, imbalances generally worsened in job-surplus cities, particularly in the Silicon Valley. The research also reveals little association between jobs-housing balance and self-containment. Several Bay Area cities are nearly perfectly balanced, yet fewer than a third of their workers reside locally, and even smaller shares of residents work locally. Restricted housing production, especially in fast-growing cities, has in many instances raised housing prices, displacing workers and increasing average commute distances. Eliminating barriers to residential mobility and housing production would allow more housing and jobs to co-locate in the future.
Journal Article
Stay local or go regional? Urban form effects on vehicle use at different spatial scales
This paper explores the respective roles of local and regional characteristics of urban form on vehicle travel. We hypothesize that the effects of urban form on vehicle use at the local and regional levels are complementary, and we introduce the concept of local and regional action spaces, which are defined based on the accessibility of alternative means of transport within an acceptable travel time, to test this hypothesis. Multilevel and ordered logit models are developed for the San Francisco Bay Area to estimate the effects of urban form and socioeconomic characteristics on vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) and vehicle trip frequency (for work, shopping, and social/recreational purposes). We find that the two urban scale characteristics exert complementary effects on VKT. However, because people in the San Francisco Bay Area display significantly lower VKT in the local than in the regional action space, we conclude that regional-scale interventions would contribute more to the policy objective of VKT reduction, although local-scale design policies might also help reach this policy goal. Intersection density (for the local action space models) and regional jobs accessibility (for the regional action space models) demonstrated the strongest and most significant relationships with VKT. The built environment did not appear to significantly affect vehicle trip frequency, which is likely due to the uniformly high levels of vehicle use in both the local and regional action spaces in the area.
Journal Article
Transport Infrastructure and Global Competitiveness: Balancing Mobility and Livability
In the United States, public infrastructure has been a necessary, though not sufficient, catalyst to economic growth and expansion, particularly in urban areas. However, infrastructure investments, and particularly highway construction, absent much in the way of proactive planning and farsighted land-use management, have for the most part also been sprawl-inducing. This article argues for carving a new relationship between public infrastructure and cities that balances the goals of economic productivity and community place-making. Often considered to be in conflict, they need not be. Experiences in San Francisco and Seoul show that the replacement of elevated freeways with greenways, boulevards, and public transit can improve neighborhood quality and increase land values. In Hong Kong, the aggressive application of value-capture strategies such as air-rights leasing with enhanced urban design increased economic rates of return.
Journal Article