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We compared the increases in the prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on the 1999 World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and its risk factors in Tianjin, China, over a 12-year period. We also examined the changes in the prevalence using the criteria of International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG). In 2010-2012, 18589 women who registered within 12 weeks of gestation underwent a glucose challenge test (GCT) at 24-28 gestational weeks. Amongst them, 2953 women with 1-hour plasma glucose ≥ 7.8 mmol/L underwent a 75-gram 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and 781 women had a positive GCT but absented from the standard OGTT. An adjusted prevalence of GDM was calculated for the whole cohort of women by including an estimate of the proportion of women with positive GCTs who did not have OGTTs but would have been expected to have GDM. Logistic regression was used to obtain odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals using the IADPSG criteria. The prevalence of GDM risk factors was compared to the 1999 survey. The adjusted prevalence of GDM by the 1999 WHO criteria was 8.1%, a 3.5-fold increase as in 1999. Using the IADPSG criteria increased the adjusted prevalence further to 9.3%. Advanced age, higher pre-pregnancy body mass index, Han-nationality, higher systolic blood pressure (BP), a family history of diabetes, weight gain during pregnancy and habitual smoking were risk factors for GDM. Compared to the 1999 survey, the prevalence of overweight plus obesity had increased by 1.8 folds, age ≥ 30 years by 2.3 folds, systolic BP by 2.3 mmHg over the 12-year period. Increasing prevalence of overweight/obesity and older age at pregnancy were accompanied by increasing prevalence of GDM, further increased by change in diagnostic criteria.

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can have multiple comorbidities and premature mortality due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, hospitalization with heart failure and/or chronic kidney disease. Traditional drugs that lower glucose, such as metformin, or that treat high blood pressure and blood levels of lipids, such as renin–angiotensin-system inhibitors and statins, have organ-protective effects in patients with T2DM. Amongst patients with T2DM treated with these traditional drugs, randomized clinical trials have confirmed the additional cardiorenal benefits of sodium–glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) and nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. The cardiorenal benefits of SGLT2i extended to patients with heart failure and/or chronic kidney disease without T2DM, whereas incretin-based therapy (such as GLP1RA) reduced cardiovascular events in patients with obesity and T2DM. However, considerable care gaps exist owing to insufficient detection, therapeutic inertia and poor adherence to these life-saving medications. In this Review, we discuss the complex interconnections of cardiorenal–metabolic diseases and strategies to implement evidence-based practice. Furthermore, we consider the need to conduct clinical trials combined with registers in specific patient segments to evaluate existing and emerging therapies to address unmet needs in T2DM.Cardiorenal diseases are common in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), with substantial morbidity and premature mortality. This Review discusses how atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiorenal diseases can be prevented in T2DM, considering evidence from clinical trials and its implementation in clinical practice.

Epigenetic markers are potential biomarkers for diabetes and related complications. Using a prospective cohort from the Hong Kong Diabetes Register, we perform two independent epigenome-wide association studies to identify methylation markers associated with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and subsequent decline in kidney function (eGFR slope), respectively, in 1,271 type 2 diabetes subjects. Here we show 40 (30 previously unidentified) and eight (all previously unidentified) CpG sites individually reach epigenome-wide significance for baseline eGFR and eGFR slope, respectively. We also develop a multisite analysis method, which selects 64 and 37 CpG sites for baseline eGFR and eGFR slope, respectively. These models are validated in an independent cohort of Native Americans with type 2 diabetes. Our identified CpG sites are near genes enriched for functional roles in kidney diseases, and some show association with renal damage. This study highlights the potential of methylation markers in risk stratification of kidney disease among type 2 diabetes individuals. Epigenetic markers are potential biomarkers for diabetes and related complications. Here, the authors identify CpG sites associated with kidney function and its subsequent decline using both single-site and multisite analyses, which are shown to have functional significance in the kidney.

Aims/hypothesisFew studies examine the association between age at diagnosis and subsequent complications from type 2 diabetes. This paper aims to summarise the risk of mortality, macrovascular complications and microvascular complications associated with age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes.MethodsData were sourced from MEDLINE and All EBM (Evidence Based Medicine) databases from inception to July 2018. Observational studies, investigating the effect of age at diabetes diagnosis on macrovascular and microvascular diabetes complications in adults with type 2 diabetes were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Two investigators independently extracted data and evaluated all studies. If data were not reported in a comparable format, data were obtained from authors, presented as minimally adjusted ORs (and 95% CIs) per 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis, adjusted for current age for each outcome of interest. The study protocol was recorded with PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42016043593).ResultsData from 26 observational studies comprising 1,325,493 individuals from 30 countries were included. Random-effects meta-analyses with inverse variance weighting were used to obtain the pooled ORs. Age at diabetes diagnosis was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality and macrovascular and microvascular disease (all p < 0.001). Each 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with a 4%, 3% and 5% decreased risk of all-cause mortality, macrovascular disease and microvascular disease, respectively, adjusted for current age. The effects were consistent for the individual components of the composite outcomes (all p < 0.001).Conclusions/interpretationYounger, rather than older, age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with higher risk of mortality and vascular disease. Early and sustained interventions to delay type 2 diabetes onset and improve blood glucose levels and cardiovascular risk profiles of those already diagnosed are essential to reduce morbidity and mortality.

Aims/hypothesisWe evaluated the secular trend of glycaemic control in individuals with type 2 diabetes in developing countries, where data are limited.MethodsThe International Diabetes Management Practices Study provides real-world evidence of patient profiles and diabetes care practices in developing countries in seven cross-sectional waves (2005–2017). At each wave, each physician collected data from ten consecutive participants with type 2 diabetes during a 2 week period. The primary objective of this analysis was to evaluate trends of glycaemic control over time.ResultsA total of 66,088 individuals with type 2 diabetes were recruited by 6099 physicians from 49 countries. The proportion of participants with HbA1c <53 mmol/mol (<7%) decreased from 36% in wave 1 (2005) to 30.1% in wave 7 (2017) (p < 0.0001). Compared with wave 1, the adjusted ORs of attaining HbA1c ≤64 mmol/mol (≤8%) decreased significantly in waves 2, 5, 6 and 7 (p < 0.05). Over 80% of participants received oral glucose-lowering drugs, with declining use of sulfonylureas. Insulin use increased from 32.8% (wave 1) to 41.2% (wave 7) (p < 0.0001). The corresponding time to insulin initiation (mean ± SD) changed from 8.4 ± 6.9 in wave 1 to 8.3 ± 6.6 years in wave 7, while daily insulin dosage ranged from 0.39 ± 0.21 U/kg (wave 1) to 0.33 ± 0.19 U/kg (wave 7) for basal regimen and 0.70 ± 0.34 U/kg (wave 1) to 0.77 ± 0.33 (wave 7) U/kg for basal–bolus regimen. An increasing proportion of participants had ≥2 HbA1c measurements within 12 months of enrolment (from 61.8% to 92.9%), and the proportion of participants receiving diabetes education (mainly delivered by physicians) also increased from 59.0% to 78.3%.ConclusionsIn developing countries, glycaemic control in individuals with type 2 diabetes remained suboptimal over a 12 year period, indicating a need for system changes and better organisation of care to improve self-management and attainment of treatment goals.

Nearly half of all adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) live in India and China. These populations have an underlying predisposition to deficient insulin secretion, which has a key role in the pathogenesis of T2DM. Indian and Chinese people might be more susceptible to hepatic or skeletal muscle insulin resistance, respectively, than other populations, resulting in specific forms of insulin deficiency. Cluster-based phenotypic analyses demonstrate a higher frequency of severe insulin-deficient diabetes mellitus and younger ages at diagnosis, lower β-cell function, lower insulin resistance and lower BMI among Indian and Chinese people compared with European people. Individuals diagnosed earliest in life have the most aggressive course of disease and the highest risk of complications. These characteristics might contribute to distinctive responses to glucose-lowering medications. Incretin-based agents are particularly effective for lowering glucose levels in these populations; they enhance incretin-augmented insulin secretion and suppress glucagon secretion. Sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors might also lower blood levels of glucose especially effectively among Asian people, while α-glucosidase inhibitors are better tolerated in east Asian populations versus other populations. Further research is needed to better characterize and address the pathophysiology and phenotypes of T2DM in Indian and Chinese populations, and to further develop individualized treatment strategies.Prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing substantially in India and China. This Review discusses the epidemiology, phenotypes and pathogenesis of T2DM in India and China and evaluates options for optimal pharmacological management.

Older adults with diabetes are at high risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH). Many machine-learning (ML) models predict short-term hypoglycemia are not specific for older adults and show poor precision-recall. We aimed to develop a multidimensional, electronic health record (EHR)-based ML model to predict one-year risk of SH requiring hospitalization in older adults with diabetes. We adopted a case-control design for a retrospective territory-wide cohort of 1,456,618 records from 364,863 unique older adults (age ≥65 years) with diabetes and at least 1 Hong Kong Hospital Authority attendance from 2013 to 2018. We used 258 predictors including demographics, admissions, diagnoses, medications, and routine laboratory tests in a one-year period to predict SH events requiring hospitalization in the following 12 months. The cohort was randomly split into training, testing, and internal validation sets in a 7:2:1 ratio. Six ML algorithms were evaluated including logistic-regression, random forest, gradient boost machine, deep neural network (DNN), XGBoost, and Rulefit. We tested our model in a temporal validation cohort in the Hong Kong Diabetes Register with predictors defined in 2018 and outcome events defined in 2019. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) statistics, and positive predictive value (PPV). We identified 11,128 SH events requiring hospitalization during the observation periods. The XGBoost model yielded the best performance (AUROC = 0.978 [95% CI 0.972 to 0.984]; AUPRC = 0.670 [95% CI 0.652 to 0.688]; PPV = 0.721 [95% CI 0.703 to 0.739]). This was superior to an 11-variable conventional logistic-regression model comprised of age, sex, history of SH, hypertension, blood glucose, kidney function measurements, and use of oral glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) (AUROC = 0.906; AUPRC = 0.085; PPV = 0.468). Top impactful predictors included non-use of lipid-regulating drugs, in-patient admission, urgent emergency triage, insulin use, and history of SH. External validation in the HKDR cohort yielded AUROC of 0.856 [95% CI 0.838 to 0.873]. Main limitations of this study included limited transportability of the model and lack of geographically independent validation. Our novel-ML model demonstrated good discrimination and high precision in predicting one-year risk of SH requiring hospitalization. This may be integrated into EHR decision support systems for preemptive intervention in older adults at highest risk.

Little is known about the lifetime risk of progression to diabetes in the Asian population. We determined remaining lifetime risk of diabetes and life years spent with diabetes in Chinese people with normoglycemia and prediabetes. Using territory-wide diabetes surveillance data curated from electronic medical records of Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA), we conducted a population-based cohort study in 2,608,973 individuals followed from 2001 to 2019. Prediabetes and diabetes were identified based on laboratory measurements, diagnostic codes, and medication records. Remaining lifetime risk and life years spent with diabetes were estimated using Monte Carlo simulations with state transition probabilities based on a Markov chain model. Validations were performed using several sensitivity analyses and modified survival analysis. External replication was performed using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) cohort (2010 to 2015). These findings suggest that Hong Kong, an economically developed city in Asia, is confronted with huge challenge of high lifetime risk of diabetes and long life years spent with diabetes, especially in people with prediabetes. Effective public health policies and targeted interventions for preventing progression to diabetes are urgently needed.

Aims/hypothesisThe aim of the study was to describe trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Hong Kong Chinese people with diabetes from 2001 to 2016.MethodsThe Hong Kong Diabetes Surveillance Database (HKDSD) is a territory-wide diabetes cohort identified from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority electronic medical record system. Deaths between 2001 and 2016 were identified from linkage to the Hong Kong Death Registry. We used Joinpoint regression analysis to describe mortality patterns among people with diabetes by age and sex, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare all-cause mortality rates in people with and without diabetes.ResultsBetween 2001 and 2016, a total of 390,071 men and 380,007 women aged 20 years or older with diabetes were included in the HKDSD. There were 96,645 deaths among men and 88,437 deaths among women. Mortality rates for all-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer among people with diabetes declined by 52.3%, 72.2% and 65.1% in men, respectively, and by 53.5%, 78.5% and 59.6% in women, respectively. Pneumonia mortality rates remained stable. The leading cause of death in people with diabetes has shifted from cardiovascular disease to pneumonia in the oldest age group, with cancer remaining the most common cause of death in people aged 45–74 years. The all-cause SMRs for men declined from 2.82 (95% CI 2.72, 2.94) to 1.50 (95% CI 1.46, 1.54), and for women, they declined from 3.28 (95% CI 3.15, 3.41) to 1.67 (95% CI 1.62, 1.72). However, among people aged 20–44 years, the declines in all-cause mortality rates over the study period were not statistically significant for both men (average annual per cent change [AAPC]: −3.2% [95% CI −7.3%, 1.0%]) and women (AAPC: −1.2% [95% CI −6.5%, 4.4%]). The SMRs in people aged 20−44 years fluctuated over time, between 7.86 (95% CI 5.74, 10.5) in men and 6.10 (95% CI 3.68, 9.45) in women in 2001, and 4.95 (95% CI 3.72, 6.45) in men and 4.92 (95% CI 3.25, 7.12) in women in 2016.Conclusions/interpretationAbsolute and relative mortality has declined overall in people with diabetes in Hong Kong, with less marked improvements in people under 45 years of age, calling for urgent action to improve care in young people with diabetes.

In 2021, clinical trials reported the promising effects of incretins and a new class of dual glucagon-like peptide 1–glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide receptor agonists in preventing and treating type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity. These ‘twincretins’ will transform the prevention of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus and the care of people with these conditions.Key advancesOnce weekly semaglutide, the most potent GLP1 receptor agonist, was safe and effective for treating obesity, achieving average weight loss of 15% among individuals without any form of diabetes mellitus4.In the SURPASS-1 trial, tirzepatide (a new dual GIP–GLP1 receptor agonist based on the native GIP sequence) was associated with up to 2% reduction in HbA1c and a dose-dependent reduction in body weight of 7–9 kg in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus6.Tirzepatide was superior to semaglutide in head-to-head comparisons in reducing HbA1c and body weight, with a similar incidence of gastrointestinal adverse effects7.Tirzepatide was also superior to insulin degludec in reducing HbA1c and body weight, with a lower risk of hypoglycaemia8.