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The second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) has attracted many climate modelling groups in its continuing efforts to better understand the climate of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP) when atmospheric CO2 was last closest to present-day levels. Like the first phase, PlioMIP1, it is an internationally coordinated initiative that allows for a systematic comparison of various models in a similar manner to the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Model intercomparison and model–data comparison now focus specifically on the interglacial at marine isotope stage KM5c (3.205 Ma), and experimental design is not only based on new boundary conditions but includes various sensitivity experiments. In this study, we present results from long-term model integrations using the MIROC4m (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model, developed at the institutes CCSR, NIES and FRCGC in Japan. The core experiment, with CO2 levels set to 400 ppm, shows a warming of 3.1 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with two-thirds of the warming being attributed to the increase in CO2. Although this level of warming is less than that in the equivalent PlioMIP1 experiment, there is slightly better agreement with proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data at PRISM3 (PRISM – Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) locations, especially in the northern North Atlantic where there were large model–data discrepancies in PlioMIP1. Similar spatial changes in precipitation and sea ice are seen and the Arctic remains ice-free in the summer in the core experiments of both phases. Comparisons with both the proxy SST data and proxy surface air temperature data from paleobotanical sites indicate a weaker polar amplification in model results. Unlike PlioMIP1, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is now stronger than that of the pre-industrial period, even though increasing CO2 tends to weaken it. This stronger AMOC is a consequence of a closed Bering Strait in the PlioMIP2 paleogeography. Also, when present-day boundary conditions are replaced by those of the Pliocene, the dependency of the AMOC strength on CO2 is significantly weakened. Sensitivity tests show that lower values of CO2 give a global SST which is overall more consistent with the PRISM3 SST field presented in PlioMIP1, while SSTs at many of the PRISM4 sites are still too high to be reconciled with any of the model results. On the other hand, tropical Pacific SST in the core experiment agrees well with more recent proxy data, which suggested that PRISM3 SST there was overestimated. Future availability of climate reconstructions from proxy data will continue to help evaluate model results. The inclusion of dynamical vegetation and the effects of all possible extreme orbital configurations outside KM5c should be considered in future experiments using MIROC4m for the mPWP.

Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO 2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO 2 . Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO 2 forcing. In contrast to future projections, paleoclimate records often find wetter subtropics in tandem with elevated CO 2 . Here, a compilation of proxies and simulations are used to reveal the climate dynamics and feedbacks responsible for generating wet subtropics during the mid-Pliocene.

Simulating and reproducing the past Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with comprehensive climate models are essential to understanding past climate changes as well as to testing the ability of the models in simulating different climates. At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), reconstructions show a shoaling of the AMOC compared to modern climate. However, almost all state-of-the-art climate models simulate a deeper LGM AMOC. Here, it is shown that this paleodata–model discrepancy is partly related to the climate model biases in modern sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Southern Ocean (70°–45°S). Analysis of model outputs from three phases of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project shows that models with warm Southern Ocean SST biases tend to simulate a deepening of the LGM AMOC, while the opposite is observed in models with cold SST biases. As a result, a positive correlation of 0.41 is found between SST biases and LGM AMOC depth anomalies. Using sensitivity experiments with a climate model, we show, as an example, that changes in parameters associated with the fraction of cloud thermodynamic phase in a climate model reduce the biases in the warm SST over the modern Southern Ocean. The less biased versions of the model then reproduce a colder Southern Ocean at the LGM, which increases formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and causes shoaling of the LGM AMOC, without affecting the LGM climate in other regions. The results highlight the importance of sea surface conditions and clouds over the Southern Ocean in simulating past and future global climates.

Time slice experiments for past interglacial climates of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)1, MIS5e, and MIS11 are simulated using an atmosphere‐ocean‐vegetation coupled general circulation model with prescribed remnant ice sheet distributions. We examine Arctic climate responses to insolation intensity as well as remnant ice sheets through atmosphere‐ocean‐vegetation feedback quantitatively. During periods when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets remain, Arctic sea ice maintains a large extent in summer, and annual mean surface air temperatures are low enough to outweigh the warming expected from summer insolation intensity and greenhouse gases alone. This indicates that glacial ice sheets, due to their high albedo and their role as a heat sink, suppress the accumulation of heat in the Arctic Ocean in summer and the associated warming feedback. The results suggest a need to consider the history of remnant ice sheets and the duration of ice‐free periods to explain different Arctic climate responses within and between interglacials. Plain Language Summary Past warm interglacial periods (Holocene (MIS1), Last Interglacial (MIS5e), and MIS11) are simulated using an atmosphere‐ocean‐vegetation coupled model. The remnant glacial ice sheet size during peak insolation varies in each interglacial, and thus ice sheet distribution is prescribed as a boundary condition in each experiment. Feedbacks are analyzed to quantify their individual effects on surface temperature change. Common to MIS1, MIS5e, and MIS11, remnant ice sheets cause the Arctic to cool and suppress sea ice retreat despite the stronger summer insolation. The results imply that remnant ice sheets have a significant effect on Arctic and global climate response. Ice sheets reflect insolation and work as a cooling source, reducing heat accumulation in the Arctic Ocean in summer and suppressing year‐round Arctic warming. Our study suggests that the traditional way of explaining interglacial climates primarily by orbital forcing could be insufficient and that the length of time without glacial ice sheets is an important factor in explaining the differences between interglacial climates. Key Points The Arctic climate responses of past interglacials are simulated by an atmosphere‐ocean‐vegetation coupled model and compared Remnant ice sheets diminish the Arctic warming, which is otherwise enhanced through dynamical vegetation and sea ice feedback In Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)1 and 5e, Arctic warming near summer insolation peak is diminished, while it is enhanced in MIS11 due to the long ice‐free period

Coupled modeling studies have recently shown that the existence of the glacial ice sheets intensifies the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, most models show a strong AMOC in their simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is biased compared to reconstructions that indicate both a weaker and stronger AMOC during the LGM. Therefore, a detailed investigation of the mechanism behind this intensification of the AMOC is important for a better understanding of the glacial climate and the LGM AMOC. Here, various numerical simulations are conducted to focus on the effect of wind changes due to glacial ice sheets on the AMOC and the crucial region where the wind modifies the AMOC. First, from atmospheric general circulation model experiments, the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind is evaluated. Second, from ocean general circulation model experiments, the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC is evaluated by applying wind stress anomalies regionally or at different magnitudes as a boundary condition. These experiments demonstrate that glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC through an increase in the wind stress at the North Atlantic mid-latitudes, which is induced by the North American ice sheet. This intensification of the AMOC is caused by the increased oceanic horizontal and vertical transport of salt, while the change in sea ice transport has an opposite, though minor, effect. Experiments further show that the Eurasian ice sheet intensifies the AMOC by directly affecting the deep-water formation in the Norwegian Sea.

We use the coupled atmosphere‐ocean model MIROC4m to investigate the effect of mid‐Pliocene boundary conditions on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), studying the impact of increased CO2${\\text{CO}}_{2}$ , reduced ice sheets and altered orography and vegetation. We find that a higher CO2${\\text{CO}}_{2}$concentration and smaller ice sheets both weaken the AMOC with respect to the pre‐industrial. The stronger mid‐Pliocene AMOC is therefore a consequence of mid‐Pliocene orography and vegetation, where the closed Arctic gateways are responsible for approximately 80% of the AMOC strengthening. The main mechanism for mid‐Pliocene AMOC strengthening is reduced transport of freshwater from the Arctic into the North Atlantic, enhanced by a decrease of surface freshwater flux into the high‐latitude North Atlantic. Plain Language Summary The mid‐Pliocene warm period, approximately 3 million years ago, was a warm geological time period during which the CO2${\\text{CO}}_{2}$level was similar to today. While the ice sheets were smaller and the geography was different over parts of the globe, this period is often considered analogous for a possible future warm climate. Studies show that the AMOC, a large‐scale ocean circulation that transports heat and salt from the tropics to the high‐latitude North Atlantic, was likely stronger during this time and that this may have led to warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. We use a global climate model to investigate which factors in the mid‐Pliocene lead to strengthening of the AMOC. Our results show that the higher CO2${\\text{CO}}_{2}$and smaller ice sheets weaken the AMOC. The geography and vegetation is therefore responsible for the strengthening of the AMOC during the mid‐Pliocene. This is mainly due to Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago being closed, reducing the transport of freshwater from the Arctic into the North Atlantic. Key Points Mid‐Pliocene orography and vegetation leads to a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Approximately 80% of the strengthening by mid‐Pliocene orography and vegetation is a consequence of closed Arctic gateways Elevated CO2 levels and smaller ice sheets levels during the mid‐Pliocene partly compensate for the strengthening

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~ 1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~ 3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~ 0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of post-2100 climate trends on Antarctic mass changes in the 22nd and 23rd centuries.

Stable water isotopes in polar ice cores are widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations over several orbital climatic cycles. One way to calibrate the isotope–temperature relationship is to apply the present-day spatial relationship as a surrogate for the temporal one. However, this method leads to large uncertainties because several factors like the sea surface conditions or the origin and transport of water vapor influence the isotope–temperature temporal slope. In this study, we investigate how the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea ice extent, and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) affect these temporal slopes in Greenland and Antarctica for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) to preindustrial climate change. For that, we use the isotope-enabled atmosphere climate model ECHAM6-wiso, forced with a set of sea surface boundary condition datasets based on reconstructions (e.g., GLOMAP) or MIROC 4m simulation outputs. We found that the isotope–temperature temporal slopes in East Antarctic coastal areas are mainly controlled by the sea ice extent, while the sea surface temperature cooling affects the temporal slope values inland more. On the other hand, ECHAM6-wiso simulates the impact of sea ice extent on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Vostok sites through the contribution of water vapor from lower latitudes. Effects of sea surface boundary condition changes on modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes are variable in West Antarctica. This is partly due to the transport of water vapor from the Southern Ocean to this area that can dampen the influence of local temperature on the changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation and snow. In the Greenland area, the isotope–temperature temporal slopes are influenced by the sea surface temperatures near the coasts of the continent. The greater the LGM cooling off the coast of southeastern Greenland, the greater the transport of water vapor from the North Atlantic, and the larger the temporal slopes. The presence or absence of sea ice very near the coast has a large influence in Baffin Bay and the Greenland Sea and influences the slopes at some inland ice core stations. The extent of the sea ice far south slightly influences the temporal slopes in Greenland through the transport of more depleted water vapor from lower latitudes to this area. The seasonal variations of sea ice distribution, especially its retreat in summer, influence the isotopic composition of the water vapor in this region and the modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes in the eastern part of Greenland. A stronger LGM AMOC decreases LGM-to-preindustrial isotopic anomalies in precipitation in Greenland, degrading the isotopic model–data agreement. The AMOC strength modifies the temporal slopes over inner Greenland slightly and by a little on the coasts along the Greenland Sea where the changes in surface temperature and sea ice distribution due to the AMOC strength mainly occur.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, 56–48 million years ago) is investigated using a multi-model ensemble of deep-time climate simulations. We reveal that ENSO sea surface temperature variability during the EECO had significantly longer periodicity and stronger amplitude than present-day conditions. These changes are attributed to intensified ocean-atmosphere feedback processes and enhanced in-phase tropical inter-basin interactions within a broader ocean basin compared to the present-day. Sensitivity experiments in coupled ocean-atmosphere models suggest that tectonic changes, particularly the expansion of the tropical ocean basin, play a dominant role in amplifying ENSO variability and extending its periodicity, while stronger inter-basin connections further enhance ENSO amplitude. Elevated atmospheric CO 2  levels, though driving substantial mean-state changes, partially offset the tectonic influence on ENSO variability by modifying feedback processes. These findings underscore the role of tropical ocean basin geometry and atmospheric CO 2 levels in shaping ENSO variability, offering insights into past climate dynamics and implications for future projections under sustained global warming. Early Eocene ENSO had stronger amplitude and longer periodicity than present, driven primarily by tectonic changes, but high atmospheric CO 2 levels offset tectonic influence on the ENSO amplitude through altered ocean-atmospheric interaction.

We carry out three sets of last interglacial (LIG) experiments, named lig127k, and of pre-industrial experiments, named piControl, both as part of PMIP4/CMIP6 using three versions of the MIROC model: MIROC4m, MIROC4m-LPJ, and MIROC-ES2L. The results are compared with reconstructions from climate proxy data. All models show summer warming over northern high-latitude land, reflecting the differences between the distributions of the LIG and present-day solar irradiance. Globally averaged temperature changes are −0.94 K (MIROC4m), −0.39 K (MIROC4m-LPJ), and −0.43 K (MIROC-ES2L). Only MIROC4m-LPJ, which includes dynamical vegetation feedback from the change in vegetation distribution, shows annual mean warming signals at northern high latitudes, as indicated by proxy data. In contrast, the latest Earth system model (ESM) of MIROC, MIROC-ES2L, which considers only a partial vegetation effect through the leaf area index, shows no change or even annual cooling over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Results from the series of experiments show that the inclusion of full vegetation feedback is necessary for the reproduction of the strong annual warming over land at northern high latitudes. The LIG experimental results show that the warming predicted by models is still underestimated, even with dynamical vegetation, compared to reconstructions from proxy data, suggesting that further investigation and improvement to the climate feedback mechanism are needed.