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Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO 2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO 2 . Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO 2 forcing. In contrast to future projections, paleoclimate records often find wetter subtropics in tandem with elevated CO 2 . Here, a compilation of proxies and simulations are used to reveal the climate dynamics and feedbacks responsible for generating wet subtropics during the mid-Pliocene.

During the most recent deglaciation, the upwards trend of warmer Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures was punctuated by a rapid and intense return to glacial conditions: the Younger Dryas (YD). The end of this event marks the beginning of the Holocene. Using the University of Toronto version of CCSM4, a model of the climate prior to the YD was created with correct boundary conditions. Various amounts of freshwater forcing were then applied to the Beaufort Gyre for forcing intervals ranging from 1 to 125 years. In several cases, this was sufficient to collapse the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and cause significant cooling over the NH. Crucially, after the forcing was ceased, the AMOC stayed in an off state for approximately a millennium before mounting a rapid recover to pre-YD levels. This recovery, which permanently reduced the extent of NH sea ice, occurred through the mechanism of a Polynya opening in the Irminger Sea during winter and led to a pronounced “overshoot” of the AMOC, during which NH temperatures were higher than before the YD.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) is an international collaboration to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene interglacial, corresponding to marine isotope stage KM5c (3.205 Mya), using a wide selection of climate models with the objective of understanding the nature of the warming that is known to have occurred during the broader mid-Pliocene warm period. PlioMIP2 builds on the successes of PlioMIP by shifting the focus to a specific interglacial and using a revised set of geographic and orbital boundary conditions. In this paper, we present the details of the mid-Pliocene simulations that we have performed with a slightly modified version of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and the enhanced variant of the PlioMIP2 boundary conditions. We discuss the simulated climatology through comparisons to our control simulations and to proxy reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene climate. With the new boundary conditions, the University of Toronto version of the CCSM4 model simulates a mid-Pliocene that is more than twice as warm as that with the boundary conditions used for PlioMIP Phase 1. The warming is more enhanced near the high latitudes, which is where most of the changes to the PlioMIP2 boundary conditions have been made. The elevated warming in the high latitudes leads to a better match between the simulated climatology and proxy-based reconstructions than possible with the previous version of the boundary conditions.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2–3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

The winter and summer monsoons in Southeast Asia are important but highly variable sources of rainfall. Current understanding of the winter monsoon is limited by conflicting proxy observations, resulting from the decoupling of regional atmospheric circulation patterns and local rainfall dynamics. These signals are difficult to decipher in paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present a winter monsoon speleothem record from Southeast Asia covering the Holocene and find that winter and summer rainfall changed synchronously, forced by changes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, regional atmospheric circulation shows an inverse relation between winter and summer controlled by seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere. We show that disentangling the local and regional signal in paleoclimate reconstructions is crucial in understanding and projecting winter and summer monsoon variability in Southeast Asia. Distinguishing local hydrological, cave internal, and regional monsoon signals in speleothem records resolves disagreements among proxy reconstructions and illuminates the Holocene evolution of summer and winter monsoon in Southeast Asia.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant driver of year-to-year climate variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacts climate pattern across the globe. However, the response of the ENSO system to past and potential future temperature increases is not fully understood. Here we investigate ENSO variability in the warmer climate of the mid-Pliocene (~3.0–3.3 Ma), when surface temperatures were ~2–3 °C above modern values, in a large ensemble of climate models—the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. We show that the ensemble consistently suggests a weakening of ENSO variability, with a mean reduction of 25% (±16%). We further show that shifts in the equatorial Pacific mean state cannot fully explain these changes. Instead, ENSO was suppressed by a series of off-equatorial processes triggered by a northward displacement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone: weakened convective feedback and intensified Southern Hemisphere circulation, which inhibit various processes that initiate ENSO. The connection between the climatological intertropical convergence zone position and ENSO we find in the past is expected to operate in our warming world with important ramifications for ENSO variability.

Several paleoclimatic reconstructions have indicated that the mid-Holocene (6,000 years before present) was characterized by stronger east-west temperature contrast and lower El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability relative to the present day. While climate models show a reduction in ENSO variability, they underestimate this reduction compared to paleoclimate reconstructions. Further, the drivers behind these changes remain unclear. Here we use five global climate models to show that incorporating vegetation changes over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene amplifies the orbitally-driven strengthening of the West African Monsoon, warms the tropical north Atlantic, and nudges it to an Atlantic Niño-like mean state. Changes over the Atlantic lead to a La Niña-like mean state over the tropical Pacific, with reductions in interannual variability amplified by up to 18% in the Niño3.4 region due to the Green Sahara alone. Our work highlights the importance of the Atlantic influence on ENSO and provides paleoclimatic evidence for this synergistic teleconnection. Incorporating mid-Holocene vegetation changes over northern Africa amplifies Atlantic-driven teleconnections that shift the tropical Pacific toward a La Niña-like mean state and reduce El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability by up to 18%, according to simulations using global climate models.

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study, pollen-based precipitation records are reconstructed and compared to the multi-model ensemble mean of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). We find spatially consistent precipitation increase in most simulations but a spatially divergent change in MPWP records. We reconcile proxy data and simulation by decomposing physical processes that control precipitation. Our results 1) reveal thermodynamic control of an overall enhancement of EASM precipitation and 2) highlight a distinct control of thermodynamic and dynamical processes on increases of tropical and subtropical EASM precipitation, reflecting the two pathways of water vapor supply that enhance EASM precipitation, respectively.

We present results from our investigation into the physical mechanisms through which the mid-Pliocene, with a pCO2 of only  ∼  400 ppmv, could have supported the same magnitude of global warmth as has been projected for the climate at the end of the 21st century when pCO2 is expected to be 3 times higher. These mechanisms allow us to understand the warming in terms of changes to the radiative properties of the surface, the clouds, greenhouse gases, and changes to the meridional heat transport. We find that two-thirds of the warming pervasive during the mid-Pliocene, compared to the preindustrial, could be attributed to the reduction in the planetary emissivity owing to the higher concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 and water vapor, and the remaining one-third to the reduction in planetary albedo. We also find that changes to the orography and the pCO2 are the leading causes of the warming with each contributing in roughly equal parts to a total of 87 % of the warming and changes to the polar ice sheets responsible for the remaining warming. Furthermore, we provide a mid-Pliocene perspective on ongoing efforts to understand the climate system's sensitivity at various timescales and using multiple lines of evidence. The similarities in the boundary conditions between the mid-Pliocene and the present day, together with the globally elevated temperatures, make the mid-Pliocene an ideal paleo time period from which to derive inferences of climate sensitivity and assess the impacts of various timescale-dependent feedback processes. We assess a hierarchy of climate sensitivities of increasing complexity in order to explore the response of the climate over a very large range of timescales. The picture that emerges is as follows: on the short timescale, owing to the influence of fast feedback processes, the climate sensitivity is 3.25 °C per doubling of CO2; sensitivity increases to 4.16 °C per doubling of CO2 on an intermediate timescale as the ice–albedo feedback becomes active, and then sensitivity further increases to 7.0 °C per doubling of CO2 on long timescales due to the feedback from the glacial isostatic adjustment of the Earth's surface in response to the melting of the polar ice sheets. Finally, once the slow feedbacks have stabilized, the sensitivity of the system drops to 3.35 °C per doubling of CO2. Our inference of the intermediate-timescale climate sensitivity suggests that the projected warming by 2300 CE, inferred using Earth system models of intermediate complexity on the basis of an extension to the RCP4.5 emission scenario in which atmospheric pCO2 stabilizes at roughly twice the PI level in year 2150 CE, could be underestimated by  ∼ 1 °C due to the absence of ice-sheet-based feedbacks in those models.