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"Chandir, Subhash"
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Estimating prevalence and identifying predictors of zero-dose pentavalent and never-immunized children under two years of age in Kashmore and Sujawal Districts of Sindh, Pakistan: An analysis of household survey data
by
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Dharma, Vijay Kumar
,
Siddique, Muhammad
in
Access to education
,
Analysis
,
Biology and Life Sciences
2025
Despite intensified global efforts to enhance immunization coverage, one in five children continue to miss out on life-saving vaccines, leaving them vulnerable to a range of vaccine-preventable diseases. In 2022, 14.3 million children failed to receive even a single dose of the pentavalent vaccine (Penta-1) by their first birthday, classified as \"zero-dose penta\". Additionally, some children have not received any vaccinations at all and have had no contact with healthcare services-these are referred to as \"never-immunized\" children. Collectively, both groups-zero-dose penta and never-immunized children-are termed \"true zero-dose\" to emphasize the critical need for targeted interventions that ensure no child is left behind in immunization efforts.
We conducted a household (HH) survey from August 10 to December 19, 2022, in Kashmore and Sujawal, two districts in Sindh, Pakistan, with low immunization coverage. The survey targeted children aged 12-23 months who had not received the Penta-1 vaccine by their first birthday. Our study aimed to determine the community-based prevalence of zero-dose penta and never-immunized children, compare their sociodemographic characteristics and immunization histories, and identify predictors of these outcomes.
Of the 2,091 children surveyed, 497 (23.8%) were zero-dose penta, and 587 (28.1%) were never-immunized. Together, these groups constitute 51.9% of the survey population, referred to as 'true zero-dose'. The remaining 1,007 (48.1%) were either fully or partially immunized. Multivariate analysis indicated that absence of antenatal care (ANC) significantly increased the risk of children being classified as zero-dose penta (RRR = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.04-2.72; p < 0.035) and never-immunized (RRR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.25-3.45; p < 0.005). Furthermore, the absence of Lady Health Worker (LHW) visits significantly increased the risk of children being classified as zero-dose penta (RRR = 2.55; 95% CI: 1.26-5.16; p < 0.009), and the absence of vaccinator visits significantly increased the risk of being never-immunized (RRR = 4.44; 95% CI: 2.68-7.36; p < 0.001).
Despite global efforts for achieving universal immunization, half of the surveyed children remained true zero-dose, highlighting significant gaps in the ability of immunization programs to reach underserved communities. To address this issue, it is essential to enhance ANC coverage and leverage frontline health workers (FHWs) to identify and engage with clusters of zero-dose children effectively. These measures will ensure that no child is left behind, advancing health equity and safeguarding future generations.
Journal Article
Evaluating the “Zindagi Mehfooz” Electronic Immunization Registry and Suite of Digital Health Interventions to Improve the Coverage and Timeliness of Immunization Services in Sindh, Pakistan: Mixed Methods Study
by
Mechael, Patricia
,
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Ahmad, Ahsan
in
Administrators
,
Adoption of innovations
,
Applications software
2024
The Zindagi Mehfooz (safe life; ZM) electronic immunization registry (EIR) is a comprehensive suite of digital health interventions that aims to improve equitable access, timeliness, and coverage of child immunizations through a smartphone-based app for vaccinators, web-based dashboards for supervisors and managers, text message alerts and reminders for caregivers, and a call center. It has been implemented at scale in Sindh Province, Pakistan.
This study aimed to present findings from an evaluation of the ZM-EIR suite of digital health interventions in order to improve data availability and use as a contribution, among other immunization program interventions, to enhanced immunization outcomes for children aged 12-23 months in Sindh Province.
The mixed methods study included (1) analysis of ZM-EIR system data to identify high-, moderate-, and low-adoption and compliance sites; (2) in-depth interviews with caregivers, vaccinators, supervisors, and managers in the Expanded Program for Immunization (EPI); and (3) pre-post outcome evaluation using vaccine coverage from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) 2014 and 2018-2019. Key outcomes of interest were improved data availability, use and contribution to immunization outcomes, including receipt of individual antigens (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin [BCG], pentavalent [Penta] 1-3, measles), full immunization (all antigens), and zero-dose children defined as children aged 6-23 months who have not received the first dosage of the diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus 1/Penta vaccine.
By registering newborns, providing alerts and reminders, and tracking their immunization completion, the ZM-EIR improved data availability and use in the EPI. The ZM-EIR was well received by EPI administrators, supervisors, vaccinators, and caregivers. The key benefit highlighted by ZM-EIR users was a list of children who missed scheduled vaccines (defaulters). Through greater availability and use of data, the ZM-EIR implementation, as part of a broader package of immunization program-strengthening activities in Sindh Province, may have contributed to an increase in immunization coverage and timeliness for BCG vaccinations and a decrease in zero-dose children in 2018-2019 from 2014. Additional findings from the study included the dual burden of reporting on paper and gender-related considerations of female caregivers not wanting to provide their phone numbers to male vaccinators, creating barriers to greater uptake of the ZM-EIR.
The ZM-EIR is a promising technology platform that has increased the availability and use of immunization data, which may have contributed, along with other intensive immunization program interventions, to improvements in immunization outcomes through systematic registration of children, alerts and reminders, and increased use of data for planning and monitoring by the EPI.
ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN23078223; https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN23078223.
Journal Article
Effect of vaccine reminder and tracker bracelets on routine childhood immunization coverage and timeliness in urban Pakistan (2017-18): a randomized controlled trial
by
Chandir, Subhash
,
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Ali, Rozina Feroz
in
Biostatistics
,
Bivariate analysis
,
Caregivers
2020
Background
Inability to track children’s vaccination history coupled with parents’ lack of awareness of vaccination due dates compounds the problem of low immunization coverage and timeliness in developing countries. We evaluated the impact of two types of silicone immunization reminder bracelets for children in improving immunization coverage and timeliness of Pentavalent-3 and the Measles-1 vaccines.
Methods
Children
<
3 months were enrolled in either of the 2 intervention groups (Alma Sana Bracelet Group and Star Bracelet Group) or the Control group. Children in the intervention groups were provided the two different bracelets at the time of recruitment. Each time the child visited the immunization center, a hole was perforated in the silicone bracelet to denote vaccine administration. Each child was followed up till administration of Measles-1 vaccine or till 12 months of age (if they did not come to the center for vaccination). Data was analyzed using the intention-to-treat population between groups. The unadjusted and adjusted Risk Ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for Pentavalent-3 and Measles-1 coverage at 12 months of age were estimated through bivariate and multivariate analysis. Time-to-Pentavalent-3 and Measles-1 immunization curves were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method.
Results
A total of 1,445 children were enrolled in the study between July 19, 2017 and October 10, 2017. Baseline characteristics among the three groups were similar. Up-to-date coverage for the Pentavalent-3 /Measles-1 vaccine at 12 months of age was 84.6%/72.0%, 85.4%/70.5% and 83.0%/68.5% in Alma Sana Bracelet group, Star Bracelet group and Control group respectively but the differences were not statistically significant. In the multivariate analysis, neither the Alma Sana bracelet (adjusted RR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.96-1.06), (adjusted RR: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.97-1.13) nor the Star bracelet (adjusted RR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.96-1.06) (adjusted RR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.95-1.11) was significantly associated with Pentavalent-3 vaccination or Measles-1 vaccination.
Conclusion
Although we did not observe any significant impact of the bracelets on improved immunization coverage and timeliness, our findings add to the existing literature on innovative, low cost reminders for health and make several suggestions for enhancing practical implementation of these tools.
Trial registration
ClinicalTrials.gov
NCT03310762
. Retrospectively Registered on October 16, 2017.
Journal Article
Assessment of vaccination service delivery and quality: a cross-sectional survey of over 1300 health facilities from 29 districts in Sindh, Pakistan conducted between 2017–18
by
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Dharma, Vijay Kumar
,
Khamisani, Tasleem
in
Child
,
Cold
,
Cross-Sectional Studies
2022
Background
Routine childhood immunization coverage in Pakistan remains sub-par, in part, due to suboptimal utilization of existing vaccination services. Quality of vaccine delivery can affect both supply and demand for immunization, but data for immunization center quality in Pakistan is sparse and in Sindh province in Southern Pakistan, no comprehensive health facility assessment has ever been conducted at a provincial level. We assessed health facilities, specifically immunization centers, and their associated health workers throughout the province to summarize quality of immunization centers.
Methods
An exhaustive list of health facilities obtained from Sindh’s provincial government was included in our analysis, comprising a total of 1396 public, private, and public-private health facilities. We adapted a health facility and health worker assessment survey developed by BASICS and EPI-Sindh to record indicators pertaining to health facility infrastructure, processes and human resources. Using expert panel ranking, we developed critical criteria (the presence of a cold box/refrigerator, vaccinator and vaccination equipment at the immunization center) to indicate the bare minimum items required by immunization centers to vaccinate children. We also categorized other infrastructure, process, and human resource items to determine high, low and moderate function requirements to ascertain quality. We evaluated presence of critical criteria, calculated scores for high, moderate and low function requirements, and displayed frequencies of infrastructure, process and human resource indicators for all immunization centers across Sindh. We analyzed results at the division level and utilized a two-sample independent clustered t-test to test differences in average function requirement scores between facilities that met critical criteria and those that did not.
Results
Out of the 1396 health facilities assessed across Sindh province from October 2017 to January 2018, 1236 (88.5%) were operational while 1209 (86.6%) offered vaccination services (immunization centers). Only 793 (65.6%; 793/1209) immunization centers met the critical criteria of having all the following items: vaccinator, a cold box or refrigerator and vaccine supplies. Of the 416 (34.4%; 416/1209) immunization centers that did not meet the critical criteria, most of the centers did not have a cold box or refrigerator (28.3%; 342/1209), followed by lack of vaccines (19.9%; 240/1209), and a vaccinator (13.0%; 157/1209). Of the 2153 healthcare workers interviewed, 1875 (87.1%) were vaccinators, of which 1745 (81.0%; 1745/2153) were male, and had an average of 12.4 years of schooling. A total of 1805 (96.3%; 1805/1875), 1655 (88.3%; 1655/1875) and 1387 (74.0%; 1387/1875) of the vaccinators were trained in vaccination, cold chain and inventory management respectively.
Conclusion
One out of three immunization centers in Sindh lack the critical components essential for quality vaccination services. While the majority of health workers (>80%) were trained on vaccination and cold chain management, the proportion trained on inventory management was comparatively low. Our findings therefore suggest that suboptimal immunization center quality is partly due to inadequate infrastructure and inefficient processes contributed to an extent, by low levels of inventory management training among vaccinators. Our study presents critical research findings with high-impact policy implications for identifying and addressing gaps to improve vaccination uptake within a low-middle income country setting.
Journal Article
Prevalence and risk factors of stillbirths among pregnant women from twelve high-volume birthing facilities of Karachi, Pakistan: a longitudinal cohort study
by
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Dharma, Vijay Kumar
,
Iftikhar, Sundus
in
Adult
,
Antenatal care
,
Attended births
2025
Background
Stillbirth, defined as the death of a fetus at or after 22 weeks of gestation, remains a neglected public health issue, with approximately 2 million stillbirths occurring annually. Pakistan ranks among the top three countries with the highest number of stillbirths, yet progress in reducing stillbirth rates remains slower than regional and global averages. Despite the substantial burden, there is a lack of evidence on the prevalence, geographic variation, and predictors of stillbirths in Pakistan, particularly from marginalized settings.
Methods
We conducted a longitudinal cohort study in 12 selected public and private birthing facilities located in Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan between February 9, 2021, and January 1, 2022. We enrolled pregnant women visiting the selected birthing sites during antenatal care visits and those directly visiting for deliveries. We used the World Health Organization (WHO) standard definition of stillbirth occurring at a gestational age of ≥22 weeks. We analyzed stillbirth rates across birthing sites, geographic location, and gestational age, and used firth logistic regression to identify risk factors for stillbirths.
Results
Of the pregnant women enrolled (
n
= 21,523), 63.5% (13,668/21,523) with a gestational age ≥ 22 weeks delivered their babies at the study birthing facilities. The overall weighted stillbirth rate was 12.0 per 1,000 births across all sites. The prevalence varied substantially across sites, geographic location, gestational age, and facility type (public or private). Multivariable logistic regression showed a significant association between polio-endemic super high-risk union councils (AHR: 3.53; CI: 1.84–6.75), preterm delivery (AHR: 3.97; CI: 1.42–11.16), unvaccinated for Tetanus Toxoid (TT) vaccine during pregnancy (AHR: 5.29; CI: 2.61–10.74), and having received <8 ANC visits (AHR: 2.40; CI: 1.04–5.53) with stillbirth outcomes.
Conclusion
Our study found significant variation in stillbirth prevalence across birthing facilities and geographic locations, with notably higher stillbirth rates in polio-endemic regions. These findings highlight the need for integrated approaches that combine polio eradication efforts with enhanced maternal healthcare services including maternal immunizations to maximize efficiency and impact. Additionally, efforts are needed to ensure high-quality antenatal care services and efficient management of medical conditions and prematurity during pregnancy.
Journal Article
Diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk screening model in community pharmacies in a developing primary healthcare system: a feasibility study
by
Krass, Ines
,
Chandir, Subhash
,
Hasan, Sanah
in
Cardiovascular disease
,
cardiovascular diseases
,
Diabetes
2019
ObjectivesThis study aimed to develop an evidence-based community pharmacist-delivered screening model for diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and assess its feasibility to identify and refer patients with elevated risk.DesignA feasibility study.SettingA purposive sample of 12 community pharmacies in three cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).ParticipantsAdults 40 years of age and above who have not been previously diagnosed with either diabetes or CVD.InterventionPharmacist screening of adults visiting pharmacies involved history, demographics, anthropometric measurements, blood pressure and point-of-care testing including glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and lipid panel. Participants with a 10-year CVD risk ≥7.5%, HbA1c level ≥5.7% or American Diabetes Association (ADA) risk score ≥5 points were advised to visit their physician.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcomes were (1) development of UAE pharmacist-delivered screening model, (2) the proportion of screened participants identified as having high CVD risk (atherosclerotic CVD 10-year risk defined as ≥7.5%) and (3) the proportion of participants identified as having elevated blood glucose (high HbA1c level ≥5.7% (38.8 mmol/mol)) or high self-reported diabetes risk (ADA risk score ≥5 points). Secondary outcome is participants’ satisfaction with the screening.ResultsThe first UAE pharmacist-delivered screening model was developed and implemented. A total of 115 participants were screened, and 92.3% of the entire screening process was completed during a single visit to pharmacy. The mean duration of the complete screening process was 27 min. At-risk individuals (57.4%) were referred to their physicians for further testing, while 94.5% of participants were at least satisfied with their screening experience.ConclusionsThe community pharmacist-delivered screening of diabetes and CVD risk is feasible in the UAE. The model offers a platform to increase screening capacity within primary care and provides an opportunity for early detection and treatment. However, pathways for the integration of the pharmacist-delivered screening service with physicians in primary care are yet to be explored.
Journal Article
Prevalence, geographical distribution and factors associated with pentavalent vaccine zero dose status among children in Sindh, Pakistan: analysis of data from the 2017 and 2018 birth cohorts enrolled in the provincial electronic immunisation registry
by
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Dharma, Vijay Kumar
,
Siddique, Muhammad
in
Birth Cohort
,
Children & youth
,
community child health
2022
ObjectivesTo estimate the prevalence of zero dose children (who have not received any dose of pentavalent (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, Haemophilus influenzae type B and hepatitis B) vaccine by their first birthday) among those who interacted with the immunisation system in Sindh, Pakistan along with their sociodemographic characteristics and risk factors.Design and participantsWe conducted a descriptive analysis of child-level longitudinal immunisation records of 1 467 975 0–23 months children from the Sindh’s Zindagi Mehfooz (Safe Life) Electronic Immunisation Registry (ZM-EIR), for the birth cohorts of 2017 and 2018.SettingSindh province, Pakistan which has a population of 47.9 million people and an annual birth cohort of 1.7 million.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome measure was zero dose status among enrolled children. Logistic regression was performed to identify the risk factors associated with the zero dose status.ResultsOut of 1 467 975 children enrolled in the ZM-EIR in Sindh, 10.6% (154 881/1 467 975) were zero dose. There were sharp inequities across the 27 districts. Zero dose children had a lower proportion of hospital births (28.5% vs 34.0%; difference 5.5 percentage points (pp) (95% CI 5.26 to 5.74); p<0.001) and higher prevalence from slums (49.5% vs 42.3%; difference 7.2 pp (95% CI 6.93 to 7.46); p<0.001), compared with non-zero dose children. Children residing in urban compared with rural areas were at a higher risk (relative risk (RR): 1.20; p<0.001; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.22), while children with educated compared with uneducated mothers were at a lower risk of being zero dose (RR: 0.47–0.96; p<0.001; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.98).ConclusionsDespite interacting with the immunisation system, 1 out of 10 children enrolled in the ZM-EIR in Sindh were zero dose. It is crucial to monitor the prevalence of zero dose children and investigate their characteristics and risk factors to effectively reach and follow-up with them.
Journal Article
“A Quiet Giant in the Fight for Equity”—Hamidah Hussain
by
Chandir, Subhash
,
Khowaja, Saira
,
Samad, Lubna
in
Conflicts of interest
,
Obituary
,
Public health
2023
Dr [...]
Journal Article
Leveraging Data from a Provincial Electronic Immunization Registry to Analyze Immunization Coverage, Timeliness, and Defaulters Among 8.8 Million Children from the 2018 to 2023 Birth Cohorts in Sindh Province, Pakistan
by
Dharma, Vijay Kumar
,
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Siddique, Muhammad
in
Analysis
,
antigen-wise coverage
,
BCG vaccines
2024
Background/Objectives: Full immunization coverage in Pakistan remains suboptimal at 66%. An in-depth assessment is needed to understand the long-term trends in immunization and identify the extent of defaulters and associated risk factors of them being left uncovered by the immunization system. Methods: We conducted a 5-year analysis using the Government’s Provincial Electronic Immunization Registry data for the 2018–2023 birth cohorts in Sindh province. We analyzed 8,792,392 child-level immunization records from 1 January 2018 to 31 May 2024 to examine trends in immunization coverage, timeliness, defaulter rates, and associated risk factors; Results: Our findings indicate gradual improvements in immunization coverage, with full immunization rates increasing by 23.2% (from 47.5% to 70.7%) from 2018 to 2022. While timeliness declined from 2018 to 2021, it recovered in 2022 and 2023. Over the 5-year study period, >90% of children defaulted on vaccinations, with 34.8% fully covered and 9.1% uncovered. Children from urban areas (OR = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.52, 1.56; p-value < 0.001) and those enrolled through fixed immunization sites (OR = 2.11; 95% CI = 2.08, 2.15; p-value < 0.001) and mobile immunization vans (OR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.13, 1.77; p-value = 0.003) were at higher risk of being uncovered defaulters. Conclusions: This study demonstrates improvements in immunization coverage in Sindh while highlighting the challenge of low timeliness and high default rates. Our findings provide insights to strengthen immunization access and timeliness, particularly in high-default areas, and can guide policies in similar low-income settings for more equitable and comprehensive immunization coverage.
Journal Article
Coverage, timeliness of measles immunisation and its predictors in Pakistan: an analysis of 6.2 million children enrolled in the Provincial Electronic Immunisation Registry
by
Siddiqi, Danya Arif
,
Dharma, Vijay Kumar
,
Iftikhar, Sundus
in
Child health
,
COVID-19 vaccines
,
Epidemiology
2025
BackgroundMeasles-related morbidity and mortality persists due to suboptimal and delayed vaccination, predominantly in low- and middle-income countries where more than 95% of global measles deaths occur. We evaluated the coverage, timeliness of measles vaccination and its predictors for children aged 12–23 months in Sindh, Pakistan.MethodsWe analysed immunisation data from Sindh Province's Electronic Immunisation Registry for 6.2 million children aged 12–23 months. We assessed vaccination coverage at specific ages, calculated timeliness using Expanded Programme on Immunisation-Sindh criteria and examined predictors for timely vaccination using Cox proportional hazard regression. Spatial mapping was used to identify zero-dose measles hotspots.ResultsAmong 6 227 450 children aged 12–23 months, 80.6% received the first measles vaccine dose and only 58.1% of those vaccinated children aged 15–23 months received the second dose. Only 36.6% and 31.4% of children received measles-1 and 2 at the recommended age range (measles-1: 270–301 days; measles-2: 453–484 days). Subnational analysis identified 26.5% of Union Councils with ≥25% measles unvaccinated children. Children of educated mothers (≥11 years) compared with uneducated mothers had a higher timely measles vaccination likelihood (measles-1: HR=1.24; 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.26; p=0.010 and measles-2: HR=1.19; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.21; p<0.001), while children who received the last vaccination at an outreach compared with a fixed site had a lower timely measles vaccination likelihood (measles-1: HR=0.91; 95% CI: 0.90 to 0.91; p<0.001 and measles-2: HR=0.93; 95% CI: 0.93 to 0.94; p<0.001).ConclusionSuboptimal and delayed measles vaccination coverage casts serious doubts on attaining measles elimination by 2030, as stated in the Immunisation Agenda. Continued high-level national commitment and implementation of targeted strategies are imperative to achieving global measles immunisation goals.
Journal Article