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Understanding the impact of natural disasters on the HIV epidemic in populations with high HIV burden is critical for the effective delivery of HIV control efforts. We assessed HIV risk behaviors, seroprevalence, and viral suppression in a high HIV prevalence Lake Victoria fishing community before and after COVID-19 emergence and lockdown and a severe lake flooding event, both of which occurred in 2020. We used data from the largest Lake Victoria fishing community in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open population-based HIV surveillance cohort in south-central Uganda. The data were collected both prior to (September-December 2018) and after (October-December 2021) COVID-19 emergence and a severe flooding event. Households impacted by flooding were identified via drone data and through consulting village community health workers. The entire study population was subject to extensive COVID-19-related lockdowns in the first half of 2020. Differences in HIV-related outcomes before and after COVID, and between residents of flooded and non-flooded households, were assessed using a difference-in-differences statistical modeling approach. A total of 1,226 people participated in the pre- and post-COVID surveys, of whom 506 (41%) were affected by flooding. HIV seroprevalence in the initial period was 37% in flooded and 36.8% in non-flooded households. After the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown, we observed a decline in HIV-associated risk behaviors: transactional sex declined from 29.4% to 24.8% (p = 0.011), and inconsistent condom use with non-marital partners declined from 41.6% to 37% (p = 0.021). ART coverage increased from 91.6% to 97.2% (p<0.001). There was 17% decline in transactional sex (aPR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75-0.92) and 28% decline in the overall HIV risk score (aPR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75-0.92) among HIV-seronegative participants. We observed no statistically significant differences in changes of HIV risk behavior, seroprevalence, or viral suppression outcomes when comparing those affected by floods to those not affected by floods, in the periods before and after COVID-19, based on difference-in-differences analyses. Despite a high background burden of HIV, the COVID-19 pandemic, and severe flooding, we observed no adverse impact on HIV risk behaviors, seroprevalence, or virologic outcomes. This may be attributed to innovative HIV programming during the period and/or population resilience. Understanding exactly what HIV programs and personal or community-level strategies worked to maintain good public health outcomes despite extreme environmental and pandemic conditions may help improve HIV epidemic control during future natural disaster events.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis are emerging tools for global health, but it is unclear to what extent they have been applied to HIV research in Africa. To help inform researchers and program implementers, this scoping review documents the range and depth of published HIV-related GIS and spatial analysis research studies conducted in Africa. A systematic literature search for articles related to GIS and spatial analysis was conducted through PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases. Using pre-specified inclusion criteria, articles were screened and key data were abstracted. Grounded, inductive analysis was conducted to organize studies into meaningful thematic areas. The search returned 773 unique articles, of which 65 were included in the final review. 15 different countries were represented. Over half of the included studies were published after 2014. Articles were categorized into the following non-mutually exclusive themes: (a) HIV geography, (b) HIV risk factors, and (c) HIV service implementation. Studies demonstrated a broad range of GIS and spatial analysis applications including characterizing geographic distribution of HIV, evaluating risk factors for HIV, and assessing and improving access to HIV care services. GIS and spatial analysis have been widely applied to HIV-related research in Africa. The current literature reveals a diversity of themes and methodologies and a relatively young, but rapidly growing, evidence base.

HIV prevalence varies markedly throughout Africa, and it is often presumed areas of higher HIV prevalence (i.e., hotspots) serve as sources of infection to neighboring areas of lower prevalence. However, the small-scale geography of migration networks and movement of HIV-positive individuals between communities is poorly understood. Here, we use population-based data from ~22,000 persons of known HIV status to characterize migratory patterns and their relationship to HIV among 38 communities in Rakai, Uganda with HIV prevalence ranging from 9 to 43%. We find that migrants moving into hotspots had significantly higher HIV prevalence than migrants moving elsewhere, but out-migration from hotspots was geographically dispersed, contributing minimally to HIV burden in destination locations. Our results challenge the assumption that high prevalence hotspots are drivers of transmission in regional epidemics, instead suggesting that migrants with high HIV prevalence, particularly women, selectively migrate to these areas. HIV prevalence varies throughout Africa, but the contribution of migration remains unclear. Using population-based data from ~22,000 persons, Grabowski et al. show that HIV-positive migrants selectively migrate to high prevalence areas and that out-migrants from these areas geographically disperse.

HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in eastern and southern Africa has declined substantially over the past two decades. These declines are often attributed to biomedical HIV prevention strategies, though concurrent changes in sexual behavior may also contribute. We evaluated the contributions of biomedical and behavioral drivers to historical incidence decline in AGYW and projected their impact on incidence trajectories over the next 30 years. We conducted a mathematical modeling study using data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open, population-based cohort of adults aged 15-49 years in 30 communities in Rakai, Uganda. We used an agent-based HIV-1 transmission model calibrated to cohort data to estimate HIV incidence trends among AGYW, aged 15-24, and to quantify the independent and combined effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART), voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), and changes in age at first sex (AFS). HIV incidence among women aged 15-24 declined by 71% between 2000 and 2019, from 1.57 to 0.45 per 100 person-years, representing the largest decline across female age groups in the cohort. Increasing AFS over the study period (by approximately 3 years in women and 2 years in men) was the largest contributor to incidence declines among adolescent women aged 15-19, averting 17% of cumulative infections between 2000 and 2020 and 37% between 2000 and 2050. Among women aged 20-24, ART scale-up had the greatest impact, averting 13% of infections by 2020 and 43% by 2050. VMMC contributed modestly to historical declines but had larger projected effects over longer time horizons. ART, VMMC, and delays in AFS acted additively to reduce HIV incidence among AGYW. Study limitations include reliance on self-reported sexual behavior and the use of a mathematical model that cannot capture all real-world sexual network dynamics. Both biomedical HIV interventions and broader behavioral changes contributed to declines in HIV incidence among AGYW. Sustaining continued incidence declines in young women will require maintaining both the protective changes in sexual behaviors and effective biomedical interventions.

The promise of combination HIV prevention—the application of multiple HIV prevention interventions to maximise population-level effects—has never been greater. However, to succeed in achieving significant reductions in HIV incidence, an additional concept needs to be considered: combination implementation. Combination implementation for HIV prevention is the pragmatic, localised application of evidence-based strategies to enable high sustained uptake and quality of interventions for prevention of HIV. In this Review, we explore diverse implementation strategies including HIV testing and counselling models, task shifting, linkage to and retention in care, antiretroviral therapy support, behaviour change, demand creation, and structural interventions, and discusses how they could be used to complement HIV prevention efforts such as medical male circumcision and treatment as prevention. HIV prevention and treatment have arrived at a pivotal moment when combination efforts might result in substantial enough population-level effects to reverse the epidemic and drive towards elimination of HIV. Only through careful consideration of how to implement and operationalise HIV prevention interventions will the HIV community be able to move from clinical trial evidence to population-level effects.

Introduction When there are frank asymmetries in power, resources, and capacity efforts to advance academic collaboration are essential for the conduct of ethical partnership-based health research, education, and policymaking. Numerous toolkits are available that provide structured templates for academic partnerships and other key stakeholders to systematically evaluate and reflect on how their practices enhance or inhibit equity. However, there is no comparative analysis available to examine similarities and differences between the multitude of toolkits available. Method We conducted a comprehensive scoping review of international partnership equity toolkits across the domains of global health research, education, and practice in four academic databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and WHO Regional Indexes) and grey literature. The search took place June through August 2023. A primary search used broad keyword combinations followed by a secondary search of toolkit titles identified during the primary search. PRISMA extension for scoping reviews was followed. Key themes, motivations, development processes, application practices, and uses of these toolkits were examined by a combination of (1) templated extraction of data and (2) applying an inductive and iterative coding approach by two independent reviewers. Results Within the academic databases, 7580 abstracts were screened (7580 primary, 198 secondary), 120 documents underwent full-text review (112 primary, 8 secondary) and 27 articles (26 primary, 1 secondary) met inclusion criteria. Within the grey literature, 104 articles and webpages (40 primary, 64 secondary) met inclusion criteria. Seventeen toolkits were identified. The majority were geared toward evaluating research ( n  = 15) rather than education ( n  = 2) or practice ( n  = 0) partnerships. Toolkits covered a broad range of objectives, development methods, and target audiences. Twenty-three countries were represented in the creation of the toolkits; however, less than half (8/17, 47%) of toolkits had representation from low- or low/middle-income countries. We identified six broad categories within the toolkits - oversight, partnership dynamics, ethical foundation, contextual factors, partnership procedures and activities, and capacity. Under these, themes such as stakeholder engagement, communication, partnership outputs, clarification of roles and responsibilities, funding, and management of data or other products generated by the partnership were common. Conclusion There was variability in the development, intended audience, and application methods of the toolkits, yet there was also substantial thematic content overlap. Limited information on the application or use of toolkits is available. To date, there is no data on whether these toolkits resulted in equity-oriented changes in partnership practices or policy.

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in South Africa is among the highest globally. Initial loss to follow-up (ILFU), defined as not starting on TB treatment within 28 days of testing positive, is undermining control efforts. We assessed the feasibility, acceptability, and potential of a mHealth application to reduce ILFU. An mHealth application was developed to capture patients TB investigation data, provide results and monitor treatment initiation. This was implemented in two primary health clinics (PHC) in inner-city Johannesburg. Feasibility was assessed by comparing documentation of personal details, specimen results for same individuals during implementation period (paper register and Mhealth application). Effectiveness was assessed by comparing proportion of patients with results within 48 hours, and proportion started on treatment within 28 days of testing TB positive during pre- implementation (paper register) and implementation (mHealth application) periods. In-depth interviews with patients and providers were conducted to assess acceptability of application. Pre-implementation, 457 patients were recorded in paper registers [195 (42.7%) male, median age 34 years (interquartile range IQR (28-40), 45 (10.5%) sputum Xpert positive]. During implementation, 319 patients were recorded in paper register and the mHealth application [131 (41.1%) male, median age 32 years (IQR 27-38), 33 (10.3%) sputum Xpert positive]. The proportion with complete personal details: [mHealth 95.0% versus paper register 94.0%, (p = 0.54)] and proportion with documented results: [mHealth 97.4% versus paper register 97.8%, (p = 0.79)] were not different in the two methods. The proportion of results available within 48 hours: [mHealth 96.8% versus paper register 68.6%), (p <0.001)], and the proportion on treatment within 28 days [mHealth 28/33 (84.8%) versus paper register 30/44 (68.2%), (p = 0.08)] increased during implementation but was not statistically significant. In-depth interviews showed that providers easily integrated the mHealth application into routine TB investigation and patients positively received the delivery of results via text message. Time from sputum collection to TB treatment initiation decreased from 4 days (pre-implementation) to 3 days but was not statistically significant. We demonstrated that implementation of the mHealth application was feasible, acceptable to health care providers and patients, and has potential to reduce the time to TB treatment initiation and ILFU in PHC settings.

Mobile phones significantly improve access to healthcare, public health services, and disease surveillance globally. However, challenges related to reachability and accessibility persist, especially when individuals change or drop telephone numbers affecting continuity in public health interventions such as HIV follow-ups and vaccine reminders. We explored trends in phone ownership, changes in mobile phone numbers, associated factors, and the time it takes to better understand how these might affect the ability of phone-based public health services to reach targeted recipients. We used data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a population-based prospective open cohort in rural Uganda. Between 2010 and 2020, data on phone ownership and individuals’ phone numbers were collected for six consecutive visits. We assessed trends in phone ownership using descriptive statistics. Factors associated with the number of times individuals changed their phone numbers were assessed using a Poisson multivariable regression model. We used Anderson Gill Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the time-to-change of phone numbers. In total 41,922 participants contributed 97,034 visits. A majority (61.8%) of participants owned a mobile phone at some point from 2010 to 2020. Phone ownership increased over the study period from 51.2% in 2010 to 68.2% in 2020 ( p  < 0.001). Phone ownership was lower among women participants (versus men; adjPR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.78–0.83) and younger persons < 25 years (versus ≥ 25 years; adjPR = 0.69; 95% CI 0.65–0.72), but there were no differences by HIV serostatus. The rate of change in phone numbers was significantly lower among women participants (adjusted prevalence ratio [adjIRR] = 0.88; 0.83–0.95) and those with secondary education or above (versus primary or none; adjIRR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.87–0.98). In contrast, it was higher among young persons aged 15-24-years old (versus 45 + years; adjIRR = 2.52; 95% CI 2.13–2.76), those living in lake Victoria fishing communities (versus trading centers, adjIRR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.17–1.40), persons with lower SES (versus higher SES; adjIRR:1.30; 95% CI 1.19–1.42), and persons living with HIV (versus HIV negative participants; adjIRR = 1.11; 95% CI 1.03–1.20). In this Ugandan cohort, mobile phone ownership increased over time, although by 2020 nearly 30% of the population still did not own a phone, and participants frequently changed phone numbers. Being a man, living with HIV, and lower socioeconomic status were all associated with changing phone numbers, a community peer system to maintain contact with these groups may be required to supplement phone-based initiatives.

Antenatal alcohol use is linked to adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Uganda has one of the highest rates of alcohol use in sub-Saharan Africa, but the prevalence of antenatal alcohol use has not been reported in the Rakai region. We used cross-sectional data from pregnant women in the Rakai Community Cohort Study between March 2017 and September 2018. Using bivariate and multivariable analyses, we assessed associations between self-reported antenatal alcohol use and sociodemographic characteristics, intimate partner violence (IPV), and HIV status. Among 960 pregnant women, the median age was 26 years, 35% experienced IPV in the past 12 months, 13% were living with HIV, and 33% reported alcohol use during their current pregnancy. After adjusting for marital status, education, smoking, and HIV status; Catholic religion (AOR: 3.54; 95% CI: 1.89-6.64; compared to other), bar/restaurant work (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.17-4.92; compared to agriculture), >one sex partner in past year (AOR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.17-3.16), a partner that drank before sex in past year (AOR: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.48-2.74), and past year IPV (AOR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.14-2.11) were associated with antenatal alcohol use. We found that alcohol use during pregnancy was common and associated with religion, occupation, higher numbers of past year sex partners, having a partner who drank before sex in the past 12 months, and IPV experience. More research is needed to understand the quantity, frequency, and timing of antenatal alcohol use; and potential impacts on neonates; and to identify services that are acceptable and effective among pregnant women.

Human resource limitations are a challenge to the delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-resource settings. We conducted a cluster randomized trial to assess the effect of community-based peer health workers (PHW) on AIDS care of adults in Rakai, Uganda. 15 AIDS clinics were randomized 2:1 to receive the PHW intervention (n = 10) or control (n = 5). PHW tasks included clinic and home-based provision of counseling, clinical, adherence to ART, and social support. Primary outcomes were adherence and cumulative risk of virologic failure (>400 copies/mL). Secondary outcomes were virologic failure at each 24 week time point up to 192 weeks of ART. Analysis was by intention to treat. From May 2006 to July 2008, 1336 patients were followed. 444 (33%) of these patients were already on ART at the start of the study. No significant differences were found in lack of adherence (<95% pill count adherence risk ratio [RR] 0.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-1.35; <100% adherence RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.94-1.30), cumulative risk of virologic failure (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.61-1.08) or in shorter-term virologic outcomes (24 week virologic failure RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.65-1.32; 48 week, RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.47-1.48; 72 week, RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.44-1.49). However, virologic failure rates >or=96 weeks into ART were significantly decreased in the intervention arm compared to the control arm (96 week failure RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31-0.81; 120 week, RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.22-1.60; 144 week, RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16-0.95; 168 week, RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.097-0.92; 192 week, RR 0.067, 95% CI 0.0065-0.71). A PHW intervention was associated with decreased virologic failure rates occurring 96 weeks and longer into ART, but did not affect cumulative risk of virologic failure, adherence measures, or shorter-term virologic outcomes. PHWs may be an effective intervention to sustain long-term ART in low-resource settings. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00675389.