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Some of the energy from photosynthesis is used in production of biomass. An analysis of plant productivity measurements reveals that site management is the main factor controlling how efficiently plants produce biomass, not fertility. Plants acquire carbon through photosynthesis to sustain biomass production, autotrophic respiration and production of non-structural compounds for multiple purposes 1 . The fraction of photosynthetic production used for biomass production, the biomass production efficiency 2 , is a key determinant of the conversion of solar energy to biomass. In forest ecosystems, biomass production efficiency was suggested to be related to site fertility 2 . Here we present a database of biomass production efficiency from 131 sites compiled from individual studies using harvest, biometric, eddy covariance, or process-based model estimates of production. The database is global, but dominated by data from Europe and North America. We show that instead of site fertility, ecosystem management is the key factor that controls biomass production efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, in natural forests, grasslands, tundra, boreal peatlands and marshes, biomass production efficiency is independent of vegetation, environmental and climatic drivers. This similarity of biomass production efficiency across natural ecosystem types suggests that the ratio of biomass production to gross primary productivity is constant across natural ecosystems. We suggest that plant adaptation results in similar growth efficiency in high- and low-fertility natural systems, but that nutrient influxes under managed conditions favour a shift to carbon investment from the belowground flux of non-structural compounds to aboveground biomass.

A synthesis of findings from 92 forests in different climate zones reveals that nutrient availability plays a crucial role in determining forest carbon balance, primarily through its influence on respiration rates. These findings challenge the validity of assumptions used in most global coupled carbon-cycle climate models. Forests strongly affect climate through the exchange of large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 (ref.  1 ). The main drivers of spatial variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) on a global scale are, however, poorly known. As increasing nutrient availability increases the production of biomass per unit of photosynthesis 2 and reduces heterotrophic 3 respiration in forests, we expected nutrients to determine carbon sequestration in forests. Our synthesis study of 92 forests in different climate zones revealed that nutrient availability indeed plays a crucial role in determining NEP and ecosystem carbon-use efficiency (CUEe; that is, the ratio of NEP to gross primary production (GPP)). Forests with high GPP exhibited high NEP only in nutrient-rich forests (CUEe = 33 ± 4%; mean ± s.e.m.). In nutrient-poor forests, a much larger proportion of GPP was released through ecosystem respiration, resulting in lower CUEe (6 ± 4%). Our finding that nutrient availability exerts a stronger control on NEP than on carbon input (GPP) conflicts with assumptions of nearly all global coupled carbon cycle–climate models, which assume that carbon inputs through photosynthesis drive biomass production and carbon sequestration. An improved global understanding of nutrient availability would therefore greatly improve carbon cycle modelling and should become a critical focus for future research.

Global temperature is increasing, especially over Northern lands (>50 N), owing to positive feedbacks. As this increase is most pronounced in winter, temperature seasonality (ST)—conventionally defined as the difference between summer and winter temperatures—is diminishing over time, a phenomenon that is analogous to its equatorward decline at an annual scale. The initiation, termination and performance of vegetation photosynthetic activity are tied to threshold temperatures. Trends in the timing of these thresholds andcumulative temperatures above them may alter vegetation productivity, or modify vegetation seasonality (SV), over time. The relationship between ST and SV is critically examined here with newly improved ground and satellite data sets. The observed diminishment of ST and SV is equivalent to 4 and 7 (5 and 6 ) latitudinal shift equatorward during the past 30 years in the Arctic (boreal) region. Analysis of simulations from 17 state-of-the-art climate models4 indicates an additional ST diminishment equivalent to a 20 equatorward shift could occur this century. How SV will change in response to such large projected ST declines and the impact this will have on ecosystem services5 are not well understood. Hence the need for continued monitoring6 of northern lands as their seasonal temperature profiles evolve to resemble those further south.

Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane, an important greenhouse gas, limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here we report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia. We show that ebullition accounts for 95 per cent of methane emissions from these lakes, and that methane flux from thaw lakes in our study region may be five times higher than previously estimated. Extrapolation of these fluxes indicates that thaw lakes in North Siberia emit 3.8 teragrams of methane per year, which increases present estimates of methane emissions from northern wetlands (< 6-40 teragrams per year; refs 1, 2, 4-6) by between 10 and 63 per cent. We find that thawing permafrost along lake margins accounts for most of the methane released from the lakes, and estimate that an expansion of thaw lakes between 1974 and 2000, which was concurrent with regional warming, increased methane emissions in our study region by 58 per cent. Furthermore, the Pleistocene age (35,260-42,900 years) of methane emitted from hotspots along thawing lake margins indicates that this positive feedback to climate warming has led to the release of old carbon stocks previously stored in permafrost.

Growing a resilient landscape depends heavily on finding an appropriate match between the scales of demands on ecosystems by human societies and the scales at which ecosystems are capable of meeting these demands. While the dynamics of environmental change and ecosystem service provision form the basis of many landscape ecology studies, enhancing landscape resilience is, in many ways, a problem of establishing relevant institutions that act at appropriate scales to modify and moderate demand for ecosystem services and the resulting exploitation of ecosystems. It is also of central importance for landscape sustainability that institutions are flexible enough to adapt to changes in the external environment. The model provided by natural ecosystems suggests that it is only by encouraging and testing a diversity of approaches that we will be able to build landscapes that are resilient to future change. We advocate an approach to landscape planning that involves growing learning institutions on the one hand, and on the other, developing solutions to current problems through deliberate experimentation coupled with social learning processes.

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame‐based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m−2 decade−1). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade−1) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m−2 decade−1). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m−2 decade−1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

Disturbances can interrupt feedbacks that maintain stable plant community structure and create windows of opportunity for vegetation to shift to alternative states. Boreal forests are dominated by tree species that overlap considerably in environmental niche, but there are few tests of what conditions initiate and sustain different forest states. Here, we examine patterns of post‐fire growth and density of tree seedlings in early succession and use structural equation models to estimate relative effects of environmental and pre‐fire conditions, fire characteristics, and biotic interactions. We surveyed tree seedling recruits for 13 yr across a broad range of environmental and fire conditions (n = 89) in Alaskan black spruce stands that burned in 2004. Densities of established seedlings at 13 yr were strongly determined by initial recruitment that occurred within 2 yr after fire. High proportional combustion of the soil organic layer (fire severity) led to increased densities of deciduous seedlings but not of black spruce and had a positive influence on aboveground biomass of all species. Biotic interactions such as mammalian herbivory or woody competition, potential mechanisms for relay floristic succession, had no detectable effects on tree seedling densities or biomass. Repeated surveys instead suggested persistent shifts in successional trajectories of tree communities from spruce to deciduous dominance at sites where high fire severity created positive conditions for deciduous seedling recruitment and growth. Unless future species interactions alter the deciduous dominance of tree seedling composition, the vegetation transformations that we observed in response to high fire severity are likely to persist over the short fire cycle that increasingly characterizes the fire regime of Interior Alaska.

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003-2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch {Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration ($R_H $) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m⁻²·10 yr⁻¹ [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (-5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat absorption (3.3 ± 1.24 W·m⁻²·10 yr⁻¹) than that associated with increases in vegetation. Through quantifying feedbacks associated with changes in vegetation and those associated with changes in the snow season length, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between highlatitude ecosystems and the climate system.

Carbon accumulation in the terrestrial biosphere could partially offset the effects of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions on atmospheric CO 2 (refs 1 , 2 ). The net impact of increased CO 2 on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems is unclear, however, because elevated CO 2 effects on carbon input to soils and plant use of water and nutrients often have contrasting effects on microbial processes 3 , 4 , 5 . Here we show suppression of microbial decomposition in an annual grassland after continuous exposure to increased CO 2 for five growing seasons. The increased CO 2 enhanced plant nitrogen uptake, microbial biomass carbon, and available carbon for microbes. But it reduced available soil nitrogen, exacerbated nitrogen constraints on microbes, and reduced microbial respiration per unit biomass. These results indicate that increased CO 2 can alter the interaction between plants and microbes in favour of plant utilization of nitrogen, thereby slowing microbial decomposition and increasing ecosystem carbon accumulation.