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The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and ( 3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species’ distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide. The effectiveness of protected areas under climate change is debated. Here, the authors analyse the potential effectiveness of protected areas for conserving over 70% of extant amphibian and reptile species under present and future climate scenarios.

Biological invasions are a multi-stage process (i.e., transport, introduction, establishment, spread), with each stage potentially acting as a selective filter on traits associated with invasion success. Behavior (e.g., exploration, activity, boldness) plays a key role in facilitating species introductions, but whether invasion acts as a selective filter on such traits is not well known. Here we capitalize on the well-characterized introduction of an invasive lizard ( Lampropholis delicata ) across three independent lineages throughout the Pacific, and show that invasion shifted behavioral trait means and reduced among-individual variation—two key predictions of the selective filter hypothesis. Moreover, lizards from all three invasive ranges were also more behaviorally plastic (i.e., greater within-individual variation) than their native range counterparts. We provide support for the importance of selective filtering of behavioral traits in a widespread invasion. Given that invasive species are a leading driver of global biodiversity loss, understanding how invasion selects for specific behaviors is critical for improving predictions of the effects of alien species on invaded communities. Invasive species are a leading driver of global biodiversity loss. Here, the authors show that the process of invasion itself can promote behavioral changes important to the success of widespread invaders, with implications for understanding the effects of alien species on invaded communities.

In long‐distance dispersal events, colonising species typically begin with a small number of founding individuals. A growing body of research suggests that establishment success of small founding populations can be determined by the context of the colonisation event and the new environment. Here, we illuminate the importance of these sources of context dependence. Using a spatially explicit, temporally dynamic, mechanistic, individual‐based simulator of a model amphibian species, the cane toad (Rhinella marina), we simulated colonisation scenarios to investigate how (1) the number of founding individuals, (2) the number of dispersal events, (3) landscape's spatial composition and configuration of habitats (‘spatially heterogeneous landscapes’) and (4) the timing of arrival with regards to dynamic environmental conditions (‘dynamic environmental conditions’) influence the establishment success of small founding populations. We analysed the dynamic effects of these predictors on establishment success using running‐window logistic regression models. We showed establishment success increases with the number of founding individuals, whereas the number of dispersal events had a weak effect. At ≥ 20 founding individuals, propagule size swamps the effects of other factors, to whereby establishment success is near‐certain (≥ 90%). But below this level, confidence in establishment success dramatically decreases as number of founding individuals decreases. At low numbers of founding individuals, the prominent predictors are landscape spatial heterogeneity and dynamic environmental conditions. For instance, compared to the annual mean, founding populations with ≤ 5 individuals have up to 18% higher establishment success when they arrive in ‘packed’ landscapes with relatively limited and clustered essential habitats and right before the breeding season. Accounting for landscape spatial heterogeneity and dynamic environmental conditions is integral in understanding and predicting population establishment and species colonisation. This additional complexity is necessary for advancing biogeographical theory and its application, such as in guiding species reintroduction efforts and invasive alien species management.

Females and males have distinct trait optima, resulting in selection for sexual dimorphism. However, most traits have strong cross-sex genetic correlations, which constrain evolutionary divergence between the sexes and lead to protracted periods of maladaptation during the evolution of sexual dimorphism. While such constraints are thought to be costly in terms of individual and population fitness, it remains unclear how severe such costs are likely to be. Building upon classical models for the ‘cost of selection’ in changing environments ( sensu Haldane), we derived a theoretical expression for the analogous cost of evolving sexual dimorphism; this cost is a simple function of genetic (co)variances of female and male traits and sex differences in trait optima. We then conducted a comprehensive literature search, compiled quantitative genetic data from a diverse set of traits and populations, and used them to quantify costs of sexual dimorphism in the light of our model. For roughly 90% of traits, costs of sexual dimorphism appear to be modest, and comparable to the costs of fixing one or a few beneficial substitutions. For the remaining traits (approx. 10%), sexual dimorphism appears to carry a substantial cost—potentially orders of magnitude greater than costs of selection during adaptation to environmental changes.

Studies of realized niche shifts in alien species typically ignore the potential effects of intraspecific niche variation and different invaded‐range environments on niche lability. We incorporate our detailed knowledge of the native‐range source populations and global introduction history of the delicate skink Lampropholis delicata to examine intraspecific variation in realized niche expansion and unfilling, and investigate how alternative niche modelling approaches are affected by that variation. We analyzed the realized niche dynamics of L. delicata using an ordination method, ecological niche models (ENMs), and occurrence records from 1) Australia (native range), 2) New Zealand, 3) Hawaii, 4) the two distinct native‐range clades that were the sources for the New Zealand and Hawaii introductions, and 5) the species’ global range (including Lord Howe Island, Australia). We found a gradient of realized niche change across the invaded ranges of L. delicata: niche stasis on Lord Howe Island, niche unfilling in New Zealand (16%), and niche unfilling (87%) and expansion (14%) in Hawaii. ENMs fitted to native‐range data generally identified suitable climatic conditions at sites where the species has established non‐native populations, whereas ENMs based on native‐range source clades and non‐native populations had lower spatial transferability. Our results suggest that the extent to which realized niches are maintained during invasion does not depend on species‐level traits. When realized niche shifts are predominately due to niche unfilling, fully capturing species’ responses along climatic gradients by basing ENMs on native distributions may be more important for accurate invasion forecasts than incorporating phylogenetic differentiation, or integrating niche changes in the invaded range.

Background The mesic habitats of eastern Australia harbour a highly diverse fauna. We examined the impact of climatic oscillations and recognised biogeographic barriers on the evolutionary history of the delicate skink ( Lampropholis delicata ), a species that occurs in moist habitats throughout eastern Australia. The delicate skink is a common and widespread species whose distribution spans 26° of latitude and nine major biogeographic barriers in eastern Australia. Sequence data were obtained from four mitochondrial genes ( ND2, ND4, 12SrRNA, 16SrRNA ) for 238 individuals from 120 populations across the entire native distribution of the species. The evolutionary history and diversification of the delicate skink was investigated using a range of phylogenetic (Maximum Likelihood, Bayesian) and phylogeographic analyses (genetic diversity, Φ ST , AMOVA, Tajima's D , Fu's F statistic). Results Nine geographically structured, genetically divergent clades were identified within the delicate skink. The main clades diverged during the late Miocene-Pliocene, coinciding with the decline and fragmentation of rainforest and other wet forest habitats in eastern Australia. Most of the phylogeographic breaks within the delicate skink were concordant with dry habitat or high elevation barriers, including several recognised biogeographic barriers in eastern Australia (Burdekin Gap, St Lawrence Gap, McPherson Range, Hunter Valley, southern New South Wales). Genetically divergent populations were also located in high elevation topographic isolates inland from the main range of L. delicata (Kroombit Tops, Blackdown Tablelands, Coolah Tops). The species colonised South Australia from southern New South Wales via an inland route, possibly along the Murray River system. There is evidence for recent expansion of the species range across eastern Victoria and into Tasmania, via the Bassian Isthmus, during the late Pleistocene. Conclusions The delicate skink is a single widespread, but genetically variable, species. This study provides the first detailed phylogeographic investigation of a widespread species whose distribution spans virtually all of the major biogeographic barriers in eastern Australia.

The human‐mediated transportation of stowaway individuals to non‐native regions is a major driver of new biological invasions, and the post‐establishment spread of the invader in its introduced range. In order for the stowaway individuals to successfully establish in the non‐native region, they must survive the harsh conditions during the journey (e.g., extreme temperatures, cramped spaces, and lack of food) and arrive in good condition. However, few studies have investigated the impact of human‐assisted transportation on the behaviour of stowaway individuals. Here, we examined whether human‐mediated transportation, via both air and road, impacted the activity and exploratory behaviour of the invasive delicate skink (Lampropholis delicata). We exposed delicate skinks to either flights on a commercial airliner (total ~2.5 h flight time, and car transport to/from the airport), or a 3 h drive in a car. We found that although the temperatures experienced by skinks during transportation were more variable than those experienced by control group lizards, the temperature during transit remained well within the thermal tolerances for the species. Human‐assisted transportation only had a relatively minor impact on the behaviour of the invasive delicate skink: transportation by plane did not influence activity or exploratory behaviour, and car transportation increased activity, but did not impact exploratory behaviour. The capacity of stowaways to cope with the stress associated with human‐mediated transportation is a key factor in the success of species introductions, and subsequent invasion. As such, there should be a greater focus on the behaviours that facilitate the success of potential invaders in the early stages of the introduction process. In order for invasive species to successfully establish in the non‐native region, they must survive the journey and arrive in good condition; however, few studies have investigated the impact of human‐assisted transportation on the behaviour of stowaway individuals. In our study, we exposed lizards to air and road transportation to investigate the impact of this transportation on the subsequent behaviour of individuals. We found that human‐assisted dispersal only had a relatively minor impact on the behaviour of the invasive delicate skink. We conclude that the capacity of stowaways to cope with the stress associated with human‐mediated transportation is a key factor in the success of species introductions, and subsequent invasion.

In animals, the success of particular lineages can be measured in terms of their number of species, the extent of their geographic range, the breadth of their habitats and ecological niches, and the diversity of their morphological and life‐history traits. Here, we review the distribution, ecology, morphology and life history of skinks, a diverse lineage of terrestrial vertebrates. We compared key traits between the three subfamilies of skinks, and between skinks and non‐scincid lizards. There are currently 1743 described species of skink, which represent 24% of global lizard diversity. Since 2010, 16% of lizard descriptions have been of skinks. The centres of skink diversity are in Australia, New Guinea, southeast Asia, Oceania, Madagascar and central Africa. Compared with non‐scincid lizards, skinks have larger distributional ranges, but smaller body sizes. Sexual size dimorphism is rare in skinks. Almost a quarter (23%) of skinks exhibit limb reduction or loss, compared with just 3% of non‐scincid lizards. Skinks are more likely to be viviparous (34% of species) compared with non‐scincids (13%), and have higher clutch/litter sizes than non‐scincids. Although skinks mature later than non‐scincids, their longevity is similar to that exhibited by other lizard groups. Most skinks (88%) are active foragers, and they are more likely to be carnivorous than non‐scincids. Skinks are more likely to be diurnal or cathemeral than other lizard groups, but they generally have lower field body temperatures compared with non‐scincids. The success of skinks appears to be both a result of them hitting upon a winning body plan and ecology, and their capacity to regularly deviate from this body plan and adapt their ecology and life history (e.g. repeated limb reduction and loss, transitions to viviparity) to prevailing conditions. There are currently 1743 described species of skink, which represents 24% of global lizard diversity. The success of skinks appears to be both a result of them hitting upon a winning body plan and ecology, and their capacity to regularly deviate from this body plan and adapt their ecology and life history (e.g. repeated limb reduction and loss, transitions to viviparity) to prevailing conditions.

Global biodiversity loss is a profound consequence of human activity. Disturbingly, biodiversity loss is greater than realized because of the unknown number of undocumented species. Conservation fundamentally relies on taxonomic recognition of species, but only a fraction of biodiversity is described. Here, we provide a new quantitative approach for prioritizing rigorous taxonomic research for conservation. We implement this approach in a highly diverse vertebrate group—Australian lizards and snakes. Of 870 species assessed, we identified 282 (32.4%) with taxonomic uncertainty, of which 17.6% likely comprise undescribed species of conservation concern. We identify 24 species in need of immediate taxonomic attention to facilitate conservation. Using a broadly applicable return-on-investment framework, we demonstrate the importance of prioritizing the fundamental work of identifying species before they are lost.