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This contribution presents an assessment at a regional (island) scale of the beach erosion due to storm events under Climate Change. The approach adopted to assess beach erosion at the island scale consisted of three modules. First, the location, dimensions and other attributes of the Cypriot beaches were recorded on the basis of widely-available satellite imagery. Secondly, sea levels and waves were modeled along the coast under different climatic scenarios and dates in the 21st century. Finally, using these projections beach retreat due to the relative mean sea level rise (RSLR) and extreme sea levels (ESLs) was estimated using ensembles of analytical and numerical cross-shore morphodynamic models, respectively. Extreme sea levels (ESLs) were projected to (a) increase by up to 60% in 2100 from their baseline (2000) levels, and (b) vary along the coast, with the highest ESLs (and corresponding waves) projected for the southern and western coasts. The mostly narrow Cypriot beaches (91% recorded maximum widths of < 50 m) showed increased exposure to erosion. In 2100, about 47% and 72% (based on the median model estimates) of the 241 unprotected Cypriot beaches will be permanently eroded, due to mean sea level rise (SLR), to 50% of their present maximum width, depending on the scenario. In addition to the long-term erosion due to SLR, severe storm erosion is projected by 2050 even under the RCP4.5 scenario; the 100-year extreme sea level event (ESL100) may overwhelm (at least temporarily) 49% of the currently unprotected Cypriot beaches without effective adaptation responses, with the most exposed beaches located along the northern coast. As the beach carrying capacity and hedonic value will be severely compromised, effective adaptation policies and technical measures will be urgently required.

This contribution presents a new approach for assessing/ranking the vulnerability of beaches to mean and extreme sea level rise at regional (island) scales. It combines socio-economic information with beach erosion projections from morphodynamic models to rank beach vulnerability in a structured, ‘holistic’ manner. It involves the collation of various beach geo-spatial environmental and socio-economic data, which are then combined with erosion projections under different climatic scenarios. A Strengths–Weaknesses–Opportunities–Threats (SWOT) framework is employed for the indicator selection, and multi-criteria methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process—AHP, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution—TOPSIS, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations—PROMETHEE II) are then used to optimize indicator weights and rank beach vulnerability. Framework implementation in Lesvos and Kos has shown that there will be significant effects of the mean and (particularly) of the extreme sea levels on the carrying capacity and the capability of the beaches to buffer backshore assets, in the absence of appropriate adaptation measures. As the proposed approach relies on widely available information on many of the socio-economic indicators required to assess the beach’s significance/criticality, it can provide a reproducible and transferable methodology that can be applied at different locations and spatial scales.

This study examines the surf and swash zone dynamics of a microtidal, low-energy, dissipative beach in Kos Island, Greece, using high-frequency optical monitoring with a Beach Optical Monitoring System (BOMS) and in situ wave measurements during the winter period. Increased wave heights induced the offshore migration of the wave-breaking zone with significant alongshore variability; however, no triggering of NOM (Net Offshore Movement) behavior was verified, while occasional rhythmic patterns were observed in the breaking location under moderate wave conditions. Shoreline dynamics showed transient erosional episodes coupled with elevated run-up excursions, yet the shoreline showed signs of recovery, suggesting a quasi-equilibrium state. Run-up energy spectra were consistently dominated by lower frequencies than those of incoming waves under both low- and high-energy conditions. This behavior is attributed to the nearshore sandbars acting as low-pass filters, dissipating high-frequency wave energy and allowing for lower-frequency motions to dominate run-up processes. A widely used empirical wave run-up predictor corresponded well with the video observations, confirming its applicability to low-energy dissipative beaches. These results underscore the role of submerged sandbars in regulating wave energy dissipation and stabilizing beach morphology under low-to-moderate wave conditions.

The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave run-up induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean pocket beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 % of the beaches have maximum widths < 20 m), (ii) their limited terrestrial sediment supply, (iii) the substantial coastal development and (iv) the limited existing coastal protection. Modeling results indeed project severe impacts under mean and episodic SLRs, which by 2100 could be devastating. For example, under MSLR of 0.5 m – representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) – a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6 m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 % of all beaches (29–87 % of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.

Ports are vital components of global and regional supply chains, supporting trade, transport connectivity, and socio-economic development. However, their functionality is increasingly threatened by climatic hazards such as sea-level rise and heat stress, both of which are projected to intensify under future climate change. This study presents a comprehensive framework for assessing the criticality of ports within a national network, demonstrated through its application to the Greek port system, which encompasses a multitude of ports of all types from large international hubs to small island ones. The framework combines openly accessible geospatial and socio-economic data with projections of exposure to sea-level rise and extreme heat within a structured multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, enabling the identification of critical ports and the prioritization of adaptation needs. Results show that large mainland ports dominate in socio-economic importance and network centrality, while smaller island ports are vital locally due to limited redundancy and high exposure to climatic hazards. By 2100, nearly all ports are projected to experience freeboard reductions below operational thresholds and increased heat-related stress. These results highlight the need for targeted adaptation measures, including engineering interventions for mainland ports and redundancy-enhancing actions for island ports. The proposed framework provides a replicable, data-driven tool to guide evidence-based prioritization of adaptation investments and strengthen climate-resilient maritime transport and coastal management, thereby contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1.5, 9 and 13.