Explore the vast range of titles available.

Arctic warming has significant environmental and social impacts. Arctic long‐term warming trend is modulated by decadal‐to‐multidecadal variations. Improved understanding of how different external forcings and internal variability affect Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) is crucial for explaining and predicting Arctic climate changes. We analyze multiple observational data sets and large ensembles of climate model simulations to quantify the contributions of specific external forcings and various modes of internal variability to Arctic SAT changes during 1900–2021. We find that the long‐term trend and total variance in Arctic‐mean SAT since 1900 are largely forced responses, including warming due to greenhouse gases and natural forcings and cooling due to anthropogenic aerosols. In contrast, internal variability dominates the early 20th century Arctic warming and mid‐20th century Arctic cooling. Internal variability also explains ∼40% of the recent Arctic warming from 1979 to 2021. Unforced changes in Arctic SAT are largely attributed to two leading modes. The first is pan‐Arctic warming with stronger loading over the Eurasian sector, accounting for 70% of the unforced variance and closely related to the positive phase of the unforced Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The second mode exhibits relatively weak warming averaged over the entire Arctic with warming over the North American‐Pacific sector and cooling over the Atlantic sector, explaining 10% of the unforced variance and likely caused by the positive phase of the unforced Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The AMO‐related changes dominate the unforced Arctic warming since 1979, while the IPO‐related changes contribute to the decadal SAT changes over the North American‐Pacific Arctic. Plain Language Summary The Arctic warms much faster than the rest of the world, leading to significant local and remote influences. Warming in the Arctic is not uniform over time, with decadal‐to‐multidecadal variations upon the long‐term trend. The changes in Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) can be attributed to either instrinct variability within the climate system or external forcings including anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases emission and natural factors such as volcanic eruptions. Understanding of the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcing to observed changes in Arctic SAT is crucial for improving Arctic climate projections in coming decades. By synthesizing multiple observational data sets and large‐ensemble climate simulations, we find that the Arctic experienced long‐term warming with some periods of slowdown in response to external forcing, which largely explains the overall change since 1900. Internal variability, particularly the multidecadal oscillation in the North Atlantic, dominates the early 20th century warming and mid‐20th century cooling and significantly contributes to the recent rapid warming since 1979. A regression‐based rescaling method removes systematic biases in model‐simulated response (in comparison with observations), ensuring that our results are not influenced by the choice of climate models, as long as they are under the same historical forcing. Key Points Externally forced Arctic warming dominates the trend and variance in Arctic surface air temperature during 1900–2021 Most of the internally generated Arctic temperature changes are related to the unforced Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Internal variability explains 40% of the Arctic warming from 1979 to 2021, while greenhouse gases and natural forcings account for the rest

A winter Eurasian cooling trend and a large decline of winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) are striking features of recent climate changes. The question arises as to what extent these phenomena are related. A mechanism is presented that establishes a link between recent winter SIC decline and midlatitude cold extremes. Such potential weather linkages are mediated by whether there is a weak north–south gradient of background tropospheric potential vorticity (PV). A strong background PV gradient, which usually occurs in North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean midlatitudes, acts as a barrier that inhibits atmospheric blocking and southward cold air intrusion. Conversely, atmospheric blocking is more persistent in weakened PV gradient regions over Eurasia, Greenland, and northwestern North America because of weakened energy dispersion and intensified nonlinearity. The small climatological PV gradients over mid- to high-latitude Eurasia have become weaker in recent decades as BKS air temperatures show positive trends due to SIC loss, and this has led to more persistent high-latitude Ural-region blocking. These factors contribute to increased cold winter trend in East Asia. It is found, however, that in years when the winter PV gradient is small the East Asian cold extremes can even occur in the absence of large negative SIC anomalies. Thus, the magnitude of background PV gradient is an important controller of Arctic–midlatitude weather linkages, but it plays no role if Ural blocking is not present. Thus, the “PV barrier” concept presents a critical insight into the mechanism producing cold Eurasian extremes and is hypothesized to set up such Arctic–midlatitude linkages in other locations.

A record-breaking Meiyu-Baiu rainfall hit East Asia in June–July 2020. The warm Indian Ocean (IO) has been identified as a primary cause, but it cannot explain the heavy rainfall in July, a striking characteristic of the 2020 Meiyu-Baiu rainfall. A remarkable retreat of Arctic sea ice in the late spring and early summer of 2020 also promoted Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by favoring North Asian blockings and cold air outbreaks. However, its importance compared with IO warming is unclear. Our result shows that the abundant moisture supply to the 2020 Meiyu-Baiu rainfall mainly stems from anomalous meridional wind convergence, while the excessive ascending motions are due to warm advection tied to enhanced mid-troposphere westerlies. AGCM experiments are used to examine the relative importance of IO warming and Arctic sea ice anomalies. In June, IO warming is responsible for the atmospheric circulation anomalies around the Meiyu-Baiu region and accounts for ~ 75% of the Meiyu-Baiu rainfall anomalies, despite the Arctic sea-ice loss explaining most circulation anomalies over Eurasian high latitudes. In July, both IO warming and Arctic sea-ice loss are necessary for meridional convergence, enhanced westerlies, and thus the heavy rainfall over the Meiyu-Baiu region. Their effects are interdependent rather than additive. Strong IO warming is rarely observed alongside severe Arctic sea-ice loss before 2020 because of their discordant interannual variations. In the future, the combined effects of IO warming and Arctic sea-ice loss on the Meiyu-Baiu rainfall may become more pronounced as their long-term trends continue.

Despite extratropical forcing being recognized as an important factor that can modulate El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) properties on the interannual time scale, little is known about whether and how Arctic forcing changes the tropical sea surface temperature (SST). This current study reveals a significant link between the net surface sensible heat flux (SHF) in the Arctic and the SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP). Specifically, anomalous upward SHF into the Arctic atmosphere in February leads to a warmer TEP in the subsequent spring and summer. A northeast-southwest-tilted North Pacific Oscillation-like atmospheric pattern associated with the upward Arctic SHF anomaly induces SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific via positive Wind-Evaporation-SST feedback, which further promotes TEP SST warming via meridional heat advection, thermocline feedback, and nonlinear processes. The spring-to-summer TEP SST anomalies driven by the preceding anomalous Arctic SHF can potentially modulate the seasonal evolution of ENSO. Our findings imply that we should take into account the Arctic-tropics linkages when comprehensively understanding the ENSO variability and improving ENSO projection skills.

Two intense heatwaves of July and early August 2018 are found to be associated with a European blocking (EB) event accompanied by a series of consecutive positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) events. Further analyses show that the collaborative role of an EB event and its upstream NAO+ pattern could increase the frequency, persistence, magnitude and scale of heatwaves over Europe. Compared with NAO+-unrelated EB events, NAO+-related EB events are less movable (quasi-stationary) and more persistent over Europe, which could contribute to an increase in the intensity and persistence of heatwaves. In addition, the blocking high of this type has a northeast-southwest orientation with stronger warm airflow and less precipitation in northern and western Europe, where large scopes of higher temperatures tend to occur. In contrast, NAO+-unrelated EB events without orientation correspond to a trough in the south, which results in increased precipitation and cold air in the southern part of Europe, and thus high temperatures contract to the northern part of Europe. Moreover, considering that the NAO+ pattern leads the formation of an EB event, the NAO+ pattern might serve as a potential predictor for European heatwaves. Our conclusions are strongly supported by the analysis of CMIP6 historical simulations which also capture the differences of high temperatures and atmospheric circulations between NAO+-related EB events and NAO+-unrelated EB events.

The sea‐ice extent (SIE) in the Weddell Sea plays a crucial role in the Antarctic climate system. Many studies have examined its long‐term trend, however whether its year‐to‐year variation has changed remains unclear. We found an amplified year‐to‐year variance of the Weddell Sea SIE in austral summer since 1998/1999 in observational datasets. Analyses of sea‐ice concentration budget and surface fluxes indicate that it is the thermodynamic process that drives the amplification of SIE variations, rather than the sea‐ice‐drift‐related dynamic process. Compared to 1979–1998, the Southern Annular Mode in the preceding spring shows a closer linkage with the Weddell Sea SIE in 1999–2021 through a stronger and more prolonged impact on sea surface temperature, which thermodynamically modulates local sea ice via changing surface heat and radiation fluxes. Our study helps advance the understanding of extreme low Antarctic‐SIE records occurring in recent decades and improve future projections of the Antarctic sea‐ice variability. Plain Language Summary Unlike Arctic sea ice, which has significantly declined in recent decades, Antarctic sea ice possesses a moderate increase with large spatial and seasonal discrepancies. The amount of austral‐summer sea ice extent (SIE) around the Antarctica exhibits more pronounced year‐to‐year variations in the 21st century. Interestingly, we found that the amplified SIE variation is most significant in the Weddell Sea, east of the Antarctic Peninsula. This amplified variations in Weddell Sea SIE apparently cannot be fully explained by anthropogenic forcing, suggesting an important role of internal variability in the Antarctic climate system. Our analyses showed that the late‐1990s changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM)—the predominant mode of climate variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere—might cause the interdecadal amplification of the summer sea‐ice variation in the Weddell Sea via the thermodynamic process. Key Points The year‐to‐year variability of summer sea‐ice extent in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, has significantly increased since 1998/1999 This interdecadal change in sea‐ice extent is dominated by changes in thermodynamic process rather than dynamic and mechanical processes The Southern Annular Mode contributes to such a sea‐ice change via altering sea surface temperature and thus local thermodynamic processes

The heterogeneity of tumor immune microenvironments is a major factor in poor prognosis among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Neutrophils have been identified as playing a critical role in the immune microenvironment of HCC based on recent single-cell studies. However, there is still a need to stratify HCC patients based on neutrophil heterogeneity. Therefore, developing an approach that efficiently describes \"neutrophil characteristics\" in HCC patients is crucial to guide clinical decision-making. We stratified two cohorts of HCC patients into molecular subtypes associated with neutrophils using bulk-sequencing and single-cell sequencing data. Additionally, we constructed a new risk model by integrating machine learning analysis from 101 prediction models. We compared the biological and molecular features among patient subgroups to assess the model's effectiveness. Furthermore, an essential gene identified in this study was validated through molecular biology experiments. We stratified patients with HCC into subtypes that exhibited significant differences in prognosis, clinical pathological characteristics, inflammation-related pathways, levels of immune infiltration, and expression levels of immune genes. Furthermore, A risk model called the \"neutrophil-derived signature\" (NDS) was constructed using machine learning, consisting of 10 essential genes. The NDS's RiskScore demonstrated superior accuracy to clinical variables and correlated with higher malignancy degrees. RiskScore was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival and showed predictive value for HCC patient prognosis. Additionally, we observed associations between RiskScore and the efficacy of immune therapy and chemotherapy drugs. Our study highlights the critical role of neutrophils in the tumor microenvironment of HCC. The developed NDS is a powerful tool for assessing the risk and clinical treatment of HCC. Furthermore, we identified and analyzed the feasibility of the critical gene in NDS as a molecular marker for HCC.

The East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection is the dominant pattern along the East Asian coast during summer, playing a crucial role in modulating precipitation variability and extreme rainfall events over East China. This study investigates the precipitation anomalies in East China associated with the quasi-biweekly (QBW) EAP teleconnection, as well as the influence of preceding circumglobal teleconnections (CGT) on these anomalies. During QBW EAP events, the enhanced precipitation gradually shifts from Southeast China to the Yangtze River Valley and eventually diminishes over the Yellow River Valley. Notably, the QBW EAP events preceded by the negative phase of CGT exhibit substantially more intense, extensive, and persistent precipitation anomalies, accompanied by a higher probability of extreme precipitation events, compared with those preceded by the positive or neutral phase of CGT. The cause of such amplified precipitation was examined by moisture static energy (MSE) budget diagnosis. The MSE recharge process associated with the increasing precipitation can be divided into two substages. Firstly, the negative CGT pattern leads to anomalous upper-level descent over East China, which enhances MSE vertical advection and suppresses vigorous convection, triggering a rapid recharge of MSE. Secondly, the upstream warming and internal energy advection associated with the negative CGT significantly sustain the MSE recharge, leading to amplified and prolonged precipitation. These results highlight the effects of the preceding negative CGT on the QBW EAP-related precipitation via the upper-tropospheric circulation affecting local MSE dynamics. Our finding offers insights that could potentially enhance the predictive capabilities of high-impact rainfall events in East China.

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. Here the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are pivotal to tissue homeostasis, repair, and regeneration due to their potential for self-renewal, multilineage differentiation, and immune modulation. Mitochondria are highly dynamic organelles that maintain their morphology via continuous fission and fusion, also known as mitochondrial dynamics. MSCs undergo specific mitochondrial dynamics during proliferation, migration, differentiation, apoptosis, or aging. Emerging evidence suggests that mitochondrial dynamics are key contributors to stem cell fate determination. The coordination of mitochondrial fission and fusion is crucial for cellular function and stress responses, while abnormal fission and/or fusion causes MSC dysfunction. This review focuses on the role of mitochondrial dynamics in MSC commitment under physiological and stress conditions. We highlight mechanistic insights into modulating mitochondrial dynamics and mitochondrial strategies for stem cell-based regenerative medicine. These findings shed light on the contribution of mitochondrial dynamics to MSC fate and MSC-based tissue repair.