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"Chen, Yongbao"
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Solar and wind power data from the Chinese State Grid Renewable Energy Generation Forecasting Competition
2022
Accurate solar and wind generation forecasting along with high renewable energy penetration in power grids throughout the world are crucial to the days-ahead power scheduling of energy systems. It is difficult to precisely forecast on-site power generation due to the intermittency and fluctuation characteristics of solar and wind energy. Solar and wind generation data from on-site sources are beneficial for the development of data-driven forecasting models. In this paper, an open dataset consisting of data collected from on-site renewable energy stations, including six wind farms and eight solar stations in China, is provided. Over two years (2019–2020), power generation and weather-related data were collected at 15-minute intervals. The dataset was used in the Renewable Energy Generation Forecasting Competition hosted by the Chinese State Grid in 2021. The process of data collection, data processing, and potential applications are described. The use of this dataset is promising for the development of data-driven forecasting models for renewable energy generation and the optimization of electricity demand response (DR) programs for the power grid.Measurement(s)renewable energy generationTechnology Type(s)supervisory control and data acquisition systemSample Characteristic - LocationChina
Journal Article
Energy Flexibility Evaluation for Building Passive Thermal Storage Mass
2026
This study proposes a systematic methodology to evaluate the energy flexibility and operational performance of air-conditioning systems (ACSs) in residential buildings, leveraging the passive thermal storage capacity of building thermal mass through indoor temperature setpoint adjustment. A comparative analysis was conducted between inverter-controlled and intermittent on-off air conditioners under a baseline indoor temperature of 24 °C. Two additional temperature setpoint scenarios (26 °C and 28 °C) were tested to quantify variations in the building’s electricity consumption demand. To characterize the dynamic thermal response across different floor levels, ground-floor, middle-floor, and top-floor apartments were investigated in a three-story residential building, enabling a controlled, floor-level comparison under identical control logic and climatic conditions. Dymola simulation software was employed to model and calculate ACS energy consumption and energy flexibility under the three temperature setpoint conditions (24 °C, 26 °C, and 28 °C). Results indicate that a strategy of scheduled ACS shutdown and automatic restart, enabled by the thermal inertia capacity of building thermal mass, effectively enhances ACS energy flexibility. Specifically, adjusting the zone temperature setpoint reduced the total ACS load by approximately 40% in two hours of a demand response event. This temperature setpoint adjustment strategy demonstrates significant potential to mitigate grid peak-load demand without compromising indoor thermal comfort and requiring additional building retrofitting investments. The findings provide a technical basis for optimizing residential ACS operation and promoting demand-side management in power systems.
Journal Article
Investigation on Electricity Flexibility and Demand-Response Strategies for Grid-Interactive Buildings
2025
In line with the global goal of achieving climate neutrality, a flexible energy system capable of accommodating the uncertainties induced by renewable energy sources becomes vitally important. This paper investigates the electricity demand flexibility characteristics and develops demand-response (DR) control strategies for grid-interactive buildings. First, a building’s flexible loads are classified into three types, interruptible loads (ILs), shiftable loads (SLs), and adjustable loads (ALs). The load flexibility characteristics, including real-time response capabilities, the time window range, and the adaptive adjustment ratios, are investigated. Second, DR control strategies and their features, which form the basis for achieving different optimization objectives, are detailed. Finally, three DR optimization objectives are proposed, including maximizing load reduction, maximizing economic benefits, and ensuring stable load reduction and recovery. Through case studies of a residential building and an office building, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of these DR strategies for load reduction and cost savings under different DR objectives. For the residential building, our results showed that over 50% of the electricity load could be shifted, resulting in electricity bill savings of over 17.6%. For office buildings, various DR control strategies involving zone temperature resetting, lighting dimming, and water storage utilization can achieve a total electricity load reduction of 28.1% to 63.6% and electricity bill savings of 7.39% to 26.79%. The findings from this study provide valuable benchmarks for assessing electricity flexibility and DR performance for other buildings.
Journal Article
Machine Learning Approach to Predict Building Thermal Load Considering Feature Variable Dimensions: An Office Building Case Study
2023
An accurate and fast building load prediction model is critically important for guiding building energy system design, optimizing operational parameters, and balancing a power grid between energy supply and demand. A physics-based simulation tool is traditionally used to provide the building load demand; however, it is constrained by its complex model development process and requirement for engineering judgments. Machine learning algorithms (i.e., data-driven models) based on big data can bridge this gap. In this study, we used the massive energy data generated by a physics-based tool (EnergyPlus) to develop three data-driven models (i.e., LightGBM, random forest (RF), and long-short term memory (LSTM)) and compared their prediction performances. The physics-based models were developed using office prototype building models as baselines, and ranges were provided for selected key input parameters. Three different input feature dimensions (i.e., six-, nine-, and fifteen-input feature selections) were investigated, aiming to meet different demands for practical applications. We found that LightGBM significantly outperforms the RF and LSTM algorithms, not only with respect to prediction accuracy but also in regard to computation cost. The best prediction results show that the coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE), squared correction coefficient (R2), and computation time are 5.25%, 0.9959, and 7.0 s for LightGBM, respectively, evidently better than the values for the algorithms based on RF (18.54%, 0.9482, and 44.6 s) and LSTM (22.06%, 0.9267, and 758.8 s). The findings demonstrate that a data-driven model is able to avoid the process of establishing a complicated physics-based model for predicting a building’s thermal load, with similar accuracy to that of a physics-based simulation tool.
Journal Article
Optimal Control Strategies for Demand Response in Buildings under Penetration of Renewable Energy
2022
The penetration rates of intermittent renewable energies such as wind and solar energy have been increasing in power grids, often leading to a massive peak-to-valley difference in the net load demand, known as a “duck curve”. The power demand and supply should remain balanced in real-time, however, traditional power plants generally cannot output a large range of variable loads to balance the demand and supply, resulting in the overgeneration of solar and wind energy in the grid. Meanwhile, the power generation hours of the plant are forced to be curtailed, leading to a decrease in energy efficiency. Building demand response (DR) is considered as a promising technology for the collaborative control of energy supply and demand. Conventionally, building control approaches usually consider the minimization of total energy consumption as the optimization objective function; relatively few control methods have considered the balance of energy supply and demand under high renewable energy penetration. Thus, this paper proposes an innovative DR control approach that considers the energy flexibility of buildings. First, based on an energy flexibility quantification framework, the energy flexibility capacity of a typical office building is quantified; second, according to energy flexibility and a predictive net load demand curve of the grid, two DR control strategies are designed: rule-based and prediction-based DR control strategies. These two proposed control strategies are validated based on scenarios of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with and without an energy storage tank. The results show that 24–55% of the building’s total load can be shifted from the peak load time to the valley load time, and that the duration is over 2 h, owing to the utilization of energy flexibility and the implementation of the proposed DR controls. The findings of this work are beneficial for smoothing the net load demand curve of a grid and improving the ability of a grid to adopt renewable energies.
Journal Article
Study of the Technologies for Freeze Protection of Cooling Towers in the Solar System
2022
A cooling tower is an important guarantee for the proper operation of a solar system. To ensure proper operation of the system and to maintain high-efficiency points, the cooling tower must operate year-round. However, freezing is a common problem that degrades the performance of cooling towers in winter. For example, the air inlet forms hanging ice, which clogs the air path, and the coil in closed cooling towers freezes and cracks, leading to water leakage in the internal circulation. This has become an intractable problem that affects the safety and performance of cooling systems in winter. To address this problem, three methods of freeze protection for cooling towers are studied: (a) the dry and wet mixing operation method—the method of selecting heat exchangers under dry operation at different environments and inlet water temperatures is presented. The numerical experiment shows that the dry and wet mixing operation method can effectively avoid ice hanging on the air inlet. (b) The engineering plastic capillary mats method—its freeze protection characteristics, thermal performance, and economics are studied, and the experiment result is that polyethylene (PE) can meet the demands of freeze protection. (c) The antifreeze fluid method—the cooling capacity of the closed cooling towers with different concentrations of glycol antifreeze fluid is numerically studied by analyzing the heat transfer coefficient ratio, the air volume ratio, the heat dissipation ratio, and the flow rate ratio. The addition of glycol will reduce the cooling capacity of the closed cooling tower.
Journal Article
Quantifying HVAC electrical flexibility from building thermal mass: a case study of the DOE reference building
2022
As a means to adjust the temperature of the thermal zones in buildings, building thermal mass is regarded as one of the essential sources of energy flexibility. It is still challenging to quantify the energy flexibility of passive thermal mass, making it oppugning to use thermal mass for buildings’ demand response (DR). A method to accurately quantify the energy flexibility from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems (HVAC) is important for buildings to participate in DR projects. This paper proposes a novel data-driven model to quantify HVAC’s electrical demand under dynamic global temperature adjustment. The Markov chain is first used to implement an effective sampling method to produce a global temperature resetting schedule representing different temperature resetting. Next, EnergyPlus evaluates the HVAC electrical demand under the various temperature reset scenarios. In the end, the LightGBM algorithm is used to develop the data-driven model. Having validated the proposed model, the case study was conducted in a DOE reference office building for EnergyPlus. Results demonstrate that the Markov chain outperforms the probabilistic method when sampling temperature setpoint schedules. In the future, the proposed data-driven model can be used to evaluate the flexibility capacity of an energy management system in grid-integrated buildings.
Journal Article
Research of cooling tower filler based on radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN)
by
Zhao, Shunan
,
Liu, Jingnan
,
Chen, Yongbao
in
Artificial neural networks
,
Big Data
,
Chemical analysis
2023
The filler is the core component of the cooling tower, filler performance refers to both its thermal and flow resistance characteristics, which use empirical formulas of tower characteristic N, volumetric mass transfer coefficient βxv, and pressure drop ΔP obtained through experimentation under specific conditions. However, the performance equations for identical countercurrent fillers can vary at different heights or seawater concentrations. Linear interpolation is the conventional method for obtaining the filler performance under different conditions, but its uncertainty limits the application. This paper explores the use of the radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN) to analyze filler performance based on existing performance equations. The data set is generated by the filler performance equations. The results demonstrate that RBF ANN has a preferable prediction effect with high correlation (the determination coefficient R2 > 0.99) and prediction accuracy (the proportion of relative error within 10% N10 > 90%). Furthermore, the predicted results are consistent with the experimental results of the filler performance. Therefore, RBF ANN can accurately predict filler performance at varying heights and seawater concentrations, making it universal and providing a basis for cooling tower design.
Journal Article
Prediction of Heat Output Power in Open-Loop Adsorption Heat Pump Systems Using LightGBM
2025
This paper focuses on the prediction of heat output power of an “open-loop” adsorption heat pump system, aiming to achieve intelligent management of industrial waste heat recovery through machine learning techniques. Based on the actual data of an adsorption heat pump system, the study identifies key factors affecting heat load, such as flue gas volume and energy supply methods, and constructs a standard database. The LightGBM algorithm and GridSearchCV were employed for model parameter optimization to build a prediction model. The model achieved an RMSE of 7.45 kW, CVRMSE of 12.61%, and accuracy of 87.80%, demonstrating high prediction accuracy over a 15-day prediction duration. This research not only provides technical support for the energy-saving transformation of “open-loop” adsorption heat pump systems but also offers new ideas and methods for the efficient utilization of industrial waste heat.
Journal Article
Short-term Air Conditioning Load Prediction Based on Improved Stacking Algorithm
2025
The heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems (HVAC) account for over 40% of the total energy consumption in buildings. This significant proportion highlights the substantial potential for energy conservation and operational optimization in HVAC systems. The precise and rapid prediction of the short-term load of the air-conditioning system is crucial for achieving optimized operational scheduling. Utilizing the robust regression prediction capabilities inherent in ensemble algorithms within the field of machine learning, this study has developed an enhanced three-tier stacking predictive model. The predictive accuracy and generalizability of this model were evaluated using actual building load datasets. The results show that the enhanced stacking model demonstrates significant predictive performance, with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) kept below 7% for actual data and the Coefficient of Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE) maintained below 9%. Compared with traditional models, this model shows improved predictive accuracy and generalizability, making it a promising choice for air-conditioning load forecasting.
Journal Article