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"Chesson, Harrell W."
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The Estimated Lifetime Probability of Acquiring Human Papillomavirus in the United States
by
Hariri, Susan
,
Markowitz, Lauri E.
,
Chesson, Harrell W.
in
Adolescent
,
Adult
,
Age Distribution
2014
BACKGROUNDEstimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination.
METHODSWe developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability.
RESULTSWe estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%–95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%–97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years.
CONCLUSIONSOur results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.
Journal Article
Impact of Rapid Susceptibility Testing and Antibiotic Selection Strategy on the Emergence and Spread of Antibiotic Resistance in Gonorrhea
by
Chesson, Harrell W.
,
Gift, Thomas L.
,
Hsu, Katherine
in
Anti-Bacterial Agents - therapeutic use
,
Azithromycin - therapeutic use
,
BACTERIA
2017
Mathematical modeling suggests that rapid diagnostics that report antibiotic susceptibility have the potential to extend the usefulness of existing antibiotics for treatment of gonorrhea compared with the current guidelines for empiric 2-drug treatment.
Abstract
Background
Increasing antibiotic resistance limits treatment options for gonorrhea. We examined the impact of a hypothetical point-of-care (POC) test reporting antibiotic susceptibility profiles on slowing resistance spread.
Methods
A mathematical model describing gonorrhea transmission incorporated resistance emergence probabilities and fitness costs associated with resistance based on characteristics of ciprofloxacin (A), azithromycin (B), and ceftriaxone (C). We evaluated time to 1% and 5% prevalence of resistant strains among all isolates with the following: (1) empiric treatment (B and C), and treatment guided by POC tests determining susceptibility to (2) A only and (3) all 3 antibiotics.
Results
Continued empiric treatment without POC testing was projected to result in >5% of isolates being resistant to both B and C within 15 years. Use of either POC test in 10% of identified cases delayed this by 5 years. The 3 antibiotic POC test delayed the time to reach 1% prevalence of triply-resistant strains by 6 years, whereas the A-only test resulted in no delay. Results were less sensitive to assumptions about fitness costs and test characteristics with increasing test uptake.
Conclusions
Rapid diagnostics reporting antibiotic susceptibility may extend the usefulness of existing antibiotics for gonorrhea treatment, but ongoing monitoring of resistance patterns will be critical.
Journal Article
The cost-effectiveness of male HPV vaccination in the United States
by
Ekwueme, Donatus U.
,
Markowitz, Lauri E.
,
Chesson, Harrell W.
in
Adolescent
,
Adult
,
Allergy and Immunology
2011
► We modeled the impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination of males in the United States. ► The cost-effectiveness of male vaccination depended on vaccine coverage of females. ► HPV vaccination of 12-year-old males might potentially be cost-effective. ► Increasing female vaccine coverage could be more efficient than male vaccination.
The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of 12-year-old males to a female-only vaccination program for ages 12–26 years in the United States.
We used a simplified model of HPV transmission to estimate the reduction in the health and economic burden of HPV-associated diseases in males and females as a result of HPV vaccination. Estimates of the incidence, cost-per-case, and quality-of-life impact of HPV-associated health outcomes were based on the literature. The HPV-associated outcomes included were: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN); genital warts; juvenile-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP); and cervical, vaginal, vulvar, anal, oropharyngeal, and penile cancers.
The cost-effectiveness of male vaccination depended on vaccine coverage of females. When including all HPV-associated outcomes in the analysis, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by adding male vaccination to a female-only vaccination program was $23,600 in the lower female coverage scenario (20% coverage at age 12 years) and $184,300 in the higher female coverage scenario (75% coverage at age 12 years). The cost-effectiveness of male vaccination appeared less favorable when compared to a strategy of increased female vaccination coverage. For example, we found that increasing coverage of 12-year-old girls would be more cost-effective than adding male vaccination even if the increased female vaccination strategy incurred program costs of $350 per additional girl vaccinated.
HPV vaccination of 12-year-old males might potentially be cost-effective, particularly if female HPV vaccination coverage is low and if all potential health benefits of HPV vaccination are included in the analysis. However, increasing female coverage could be a more efficient strategy than male vaccination for reducing the overall health burden of HPV in the population.
Journal Article
The Estimated Direct Medical Cost of Sexually Transmitted Diseases Among American Youth, 2000
2004
Context: Each year, millions of U.S. youth acquire sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Estimates of the economic burden of STDs can help to quantify the impact of STDs on the nation's youth and on the payers of the cost of their medical care. Methods: We synthesized the existing literature on STD costs to estimate the lifetime medical cost per case of eight major STDs-HIV, human papillomavirus (HPV), genital herpes simplex virus type 2, hepatitis B, chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. We then estimated the total burden of disease by multiplying these cost-per-case estimates by the approximate number of new cases of STDs acquired by youth aged 15-24. Results: The total estimated burden of the nine million new cases of these STDs that occurred among 15-24-year-olds in 2000 was $6.5 billion (in year 2000 dollars). Viral STDs accounted for 94% of the total burden ($6.2 billion), and nonviral STDs accounted for 6% of the total burden ($0.4 billion). HIV and HPV were by far the most costly STDs in terms of total estimated direct medical costs, accounting for 90% of the total burden ($5.9 billion). Conclusions: The large number of infections acquired by persons aged 15-24 and the high cost per case of viral STDs, particularly HIV, create a substantial economic burden.
Journal Article
Cost-effectiveness of adult vaccinations: A systematic review
2019
•Published studies report favorable cost-effectiveness profiles for adult vaccinations.•Some influenza, pneumococcal, and Td/Tdap evaluations report cost-savings.•Adult vaccines can prevent substantial morbidity, disability and death.
Coverage levels for many recommended adult vaccinations are low. The cost-effectiveness research literature on adult vaccinations has not been synthesized in recent years, which may contribute to low awareness of the value of adult vaccinations and to their under-utilization. We assessed research literature since 1980 to summarize economic evidence for adult vaccinations included on the adult immunization schedule.
We searched PubMed, EMBASE, EconLit, and Cochrane Library from 1980 to 2016 and identified economic evaluation or cost-effectiveness analysis for vaccinations targeting persons aged ≥18 years in the U.S. or Canada. After excluding records based on title and abstract reviews, the remaining publications had a full-text review from two independent reviewers, who extracted economic values that compared vaccination to “no vaccination” scenarios.
The systematic searches yielded 1688 publications. After removing duplicates, off-topic publications, and publications without a “no vaccination” comparison, 78 publications were included in the final analysis (influenza = 25, pneumococcal = 18, human papillomavirus = 9, herpes zoster = 7, tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis = 9, hepatitis B = 9, and multiple vaccines = 1). Among outcomes assessing age-based vaccinations, the percent indicating cost-savings was 56% for influenza, 31% for pneumococcal, and 23% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. Among age-based vaccination outcomes reporting $/QALY, the percent of outcomes indicating a cost per QALY of ≤$100,000 was 100% for influenza, 100% for pneumococcal, 69% for human papillomavirus, 71% for herpes zoster, and 50% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations.
The majority of published studies report favorable cost-effectiveness profiles for adult vaccinations, which supports efforts to improve the implementation of adult vaccination recommendations.
Journal Article
Trends in costs of routinely recommended vaccines in the United States, 2001–2023
by
Chesson, Harrell W.
,
Kaul, RajReni
,
Leidner, Andrew J.
in
Adult
,
adults
,
Allergy and Immunology
2025
Economic models assessing vaccinations commonly assume that inflation-adjusted vaccine costs are constant over time. This study assessed this assumption using historical vaccine cost data.
Private sector and CDC contracted vaccine cost data (2001−2023) were collected from the CDC Vaccine Price List and converted to US$2023 to adjust for inflation. Trends in inflation-adjusted costs were described, and the annual percent changes in costs were calculated for each vaccine.
Changes in cost varied by vaccine. The average inflation-adjusted private sector costs increased by 0.9 % (IQR: −0.4 %—2.6 %) and 1.4 % (IQR: −0.4 %—3.2 %) annually among pediatric and adult vaccines, respectively, while CDC contracted costs increased by 0.9 % (IQR: 0.2 %—1.2 %) and 1.0 % (IQR: −0.8 %—2.1 %) annually among pediatric and adult vaccines, respectively.
Inflation-adjusted vaccine costs increased on average since 2001, highlighting limitations of constant cost assumptions. These findings can inform cost-effectiveness analyses of multi-year vaccination programs and policies.
Journal Article
The Estimated Direct Medical Cost of Selected Sexually Transmitted Infections in the United States, 2008
by
Owusu-Edusei, Kwame
,
Tao, Guoyu
,
Mahajan, Reena
in
Blood diseases
,
Chlamydia Infections - economics
,
Chlamydia trachomatis
2013
Millions of cases of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) occur in the United States each year, resulting in substantial medical costs to the nation. Previous estimates of the total direct cost of STIs are quite dated. We present updated direct medical cost estimates of STIs in the United States.
We assembled recent (i.e., 2002-2011) cost estimates to determine the lifetime cost per case of 8 major STIs (chlamydia, gonorrhea, hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human papillomavirus, genital herpes simplex virus type 2, trichomoniasis and syphilis). The total direct cost for each STI was computed as the product of the number of new or newly diagnosed cases in 2008 and the estimated discounted lifetime cost per case. All costs were adjusted to 2010 US dollars.
Results indicated that the total lifetime direct medical cost of the 19.7 million cases of STIs that occurred among persons of all ages in 2008 in the United States was $15.6 (range, $11.0-$20.6) billion. Total costs were as follows: chlamydia ($516.7 [$258.3-$775.0] million), gonorrhea ($162.1 [$81.1-$243.2] million), hepatitis B virus ($50.7 [$41.3-$55.6] million), HIV ($12.6 [$9.5-$15.7] billion), human papillomavirus ($1.7 [$0.8-$2.9] billion), herpes simplex virus type 2 ($540.7 [$270.3-$811.0] million), syphilis ($39.3 [$19.6-$58.9] million), and trichomoniasis ($24.0 [$12.0-$36.0] million). Costs associated with HIV infection accounted for more than 81% of the total cost. Among the nonviral STIs, chlamydia was the most costly infection.
Sexually transmitted infections continue to impose a substantial cost burden on the payers of medical care in the United States. The burden of STIs would be even greater in the absence of STI prevention and control efforts.
Journal Article
Human Papillomavirus Vaccination for Adults
by
Markowitz, Lauri E.
,
Chesson, Harrell W.
,
Romero, José R.
in
Adult
,
Adults
,
Advisory Committees
2019
Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is recommended to prevent new HPV infections and HPV-associated diseases, including some cancers. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)* routinely recommends HPV vaccination at age 11 or 12 years; vaccination can be given starting at age 9 years. Catch-up vaccination has been recommended since 2006 for females through age 26 years, and since 2011 for males through age 21 years and certain special populations through age 26 years. This report updates ACIP catch-up HPV vaccination recommendations and guidance published in 2014, 2015, and 2016 (1-3). Routine recommendations for vaccination of adolescents have not changed. In June 2019, ACIP recommended catch-up HPV vaccination for all persons through age 26 years. ACIP did not recommend catch-up vaccination for all adults aged 27 through 45 years, but recognized that some persons who are not adequately vaccinated might be at risk for new HPV infection and might benefit from vaccination in this age range; therefore, ACIP recommended shared clinical decision-making regarding potential HPV vaccination for these persons.
Journal Article
Updated estimate of the annual direct medical cost of screening and treatment for human papillomavirus associated disease in the United States
by
Thompson, Trevor D
,
Markowitz, Lauri E
,
Saraiya, Mona
in
Allergy and Immunology
,
Anogenital
,
Cancer
2023
AbstractThe annual direct medical cost attributable to human papillomavirus (HPV) in the United States over the period 2004–2007 was estimated at $9.36 billion in 2012 (updated to 2020 dollars). The purpose of this report was to update that estimate to account for the impact of HPV vaccination on HPV-attributable disease, reductions in the frequency of cervical cancer screening, and new data on the cost per case of treating HPV-attributable cancers. Based primarily on data from the literature, we estimated the annual direct medical cost burden as the sum of the costs of cervical cancer screening and follow-up and the cost of treating HPV-attributable cancers, anogenital warts, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP). We estimated the total direct medical cost of HPV to be $9.01 billion annually over the period 2014–2018 (2020 U.S. dollars). Of this total cost, 55.0% was for routine cervical cancer screening and follow-up, 43.8% was for treatment of HPV-attributable cancer, and less than 2% was for treating anogenital warts and RRP. Although our updated estimate of the direct medical cost of HPV is slightly lower than the previous estimate, it would have been substantially lower had we not incorporated more recent, higher cancer treatment costs.
Journal Article
The Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Scaling up Screening and Treatment of Syphilis in Pregnancy: A Model
by
Chesson, Harrell W.
,
Kamb, Mary L.
,
Gomez, Gabriela B.
in
Analysis
,
Antibiotics
,
Cost analysis
2014
Syphilis in pregnancy imposes a significant global health and economic burden. More than half of cases result in serious adverse events, including infant mortality and infection. The annual global burden from mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of syphilis is estimated at 3.6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and $309 million in medical costs. Syphilis screening and treatment is simple, effective, and affordable, yet, worldwide, most pregnant women do not receive these services. We assessed cost-effectiveness of scaling-up syphilis screening and treatment in existing antenatal care (ANC) programs in various programmatic, epidemiologic, and economic contexts.
We modeled the cost, health impact, and cost-effectiveness of expanded syphilis screening and treatment in ANC, compared to current services, for 1,000,000 pregnancies per year over four years. We defined eight generic country scenarios by systematically varying three factors: current maternal syphilis testing and treatment coverage, syphilis prevalence in pregnant women, and the cost of healthcare. We calculated program and net costs, DALYs averted, and net costs per DALY averted over four years in each scenario. Program costs are estimated at $4,142,287 - $8,235,796 per million pregnant women (2010 USD). Net costs, adjusted for averted medical care and current services, range from net savings of $12,261,250 to net costs of $1,736,807. The program averts an estimated 5,754 - 93,484 DALYs, yielding net savings in four scenarios, and a cost per DALY averted of $24 - $111 in the four scenarios with net costs. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.
Eliminating MTCT of syphilis through expanded screening and treatment in ANC is likely to be highly cost-effective by WHO-defined thresholds in a wide range of settings. Countries with high prevalence, low current service coverage, and high healthcare cost would benefit most. Future analyses can be tailored to countries using local epidemiologic and programmatic data.
Journal Article