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"Chevalier, Jean-Marie"
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Effects of the Geomagnetic Superstorms of 10–11 May 2024 and 7–11 October 2024 on the Ionosphere and Plasmasphere
On 10 May 2024 at 17 h:07 UTC, the simultaneous arrival of several solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) generated the strongest geomagnetic storm of the last twenty years, with a minimum Dst = −412 nT, usually referred to as the Mother’s Day event. On 10 October 2024, the second strongest event of solar cycle 25 appeared with a Dst = −335 nT, preceded on 8 October by an event with a Dst = −153 nT. In the present work, with measurements of the vertical total electron content and with ionosonde observations from Europe, USA, and South Korea, we show that the ionization of the upper atmosphere shortly increased at the arrival of the CME for these different events, followed by a fast decrease at all latitudes. The ionization remained very low for more than a full day. While the recovery started at the beginning of the second day after the onset for both events in October, the sudden recovery in the middle of the second day on 12 May is much more unusual. The analysis of the observations at different latitudes and longitudes shows that the causes of the ionization variations during the superstorms were mainly due to strong perturbations in the ionospheric F layer, amplified by the plasmasphere’s influence on the vertical total electron content (VTEC). The erosion of the plasmasphere during these two strong events led to a plasmapause located at exceptionally low radial distances smaller than 2 Re (Earth’s radii) in the post-midnight sector and a rotating plume in the afternoon–dusk sector clearly visible in the BSPM plasmasphere model. It took several days after the storms to recover normal ionization rates.
Journal Article
Investigation of the Ionospheric Response on Mother’s Day 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm over the European Sector
The present study examines the negative ionospheric response over Europe during two geomagnetic storms on 10–13 May 2024, known as the Mother’s Day geomagnetic superstorm. The first storm, with a peak SYM-H value of −436 nT, occurred in the interval 10–11 May, while the second, less intense storm (SYM-H~−103 nT), followed in the interval 12–13 May. Using data from four European locations, temporal and spatial variations in ionospheric parameters (TEC, foF2, and hmF2) were analyzed to investigate the morphology of the strong negative response. Sharp electron density (Ne) depletion is associated with the equatorward displacement of the Midlatitude Ionospheric Trough (MIT), confirmed by Swarm satellite data. A key finding was the absence of foF2 and hmF2 values over all ionosonde stations during the recovery phase of the storms, likely due to the coupling between the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) crests and the auroral ionosphere influenced by the intense uplift of the F layer. Relevant distinct features such as Large-scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance (LSTID) signatures and Spread F were also noted, particularly during the initial and main phase of the first storm over high midlatitude regions. Regional effects varied, with high European midlatitudes exhibiting different features compared to lower European latitude areas.
Journal Article
معارك الطاقة الكبرى
أن هذا الكتاب يقدم شيئا مختلفا إذ يعرض تداخل المعطيات التكنولوجية والرأسمالية والسياسية والبيئية حتى يكتشف القارئ كبرى معارك الطاقة المستقبلية والرهانات المتعلقة بها ومن أجل ذلك يقدم لنا هذا البحث تناقضات اقتصاد غير عنيف يسير وفق قوانين معاكسة للقوانين التقليدية للرأسمالية ويضع هذه التناقضات في نصابها الحقيقي إذ يشرح أن هذا الاقثصاد له أدوات الضبط الخاصة به وآليات معينة تنتطم بها أسواقه وكذلك نماذجه الاقتصادية شديدة الخصوصية.
BOOK
Long-Term Snow Height Variations in Antarctica from GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry
Acquiring reliable estimates of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is essential for trustworthy predictions of its evolution and future contribution to sea level rise. Snow height variations, i.e., the net change of the surface elevation resulting from a combination of surface processes such as snowfall, ablation, and wind redistribution, can provide a unique tool to constrain the uncertainty on mass budget estimations. In this study, GNSS Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) is exploited to assess the long-term variations of snow accumulation and ablation processes. Eight antennas belonging to the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) network are considered, together with the ROB1 antenna, deployed in the east part of Antarctica by the Royal Observatory of Belgium. For ROB1, which is located on an ice rise, we highlight an annual variation of snow accumulation in April–May (~30–50 cm) and ablation during spring/summer period. A snow surface elevation velocity of +0.08 ± 0.01 ma−1 is observed in the 2013–2016 period, statistically rejecting the “no trend” null hypothesis. As the POLENET stations are all located on moving glaciers, their associated downhill motion must be corrected for using an elevation model. This induces an increased uncertainty on the snow surface elevation change determined from GNSS-IR. Among the eight stations analyzed, only three of them show a long-term snow height variation larger than the uncertainties. One is located on the Flask Galcier in the Antarctic Peninsula, with a decrease of more than 4 m between 2012 and 2014, with an uncertainty of 2.5 m. The second one is located on the Lower Thwaites Glacier where we observe, between 2010 and 2020, a snow surface drop of 10 m, with a conservative uncertainty of 1 m. The third station, located on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) divide, shows on the opposite an upward motion from 2005 to 2019, of 1.2 m with an uncertainty of 0.4 m. The snow surface change of the other POLENET stations analyzed is smaller than the uncertainty associated with the glacier slope.
Journal Article
Near real-time ionospheric monitoring over Europe at the Royal Observatory of Belgium using GNSS data
Various scientific applications and services increasingly demand real-time information on the effects of space weather on Earth’s atmosphere. In this frame, the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) takes advantage of the dense EUREF Permanent GNSS Network (EPN) to monitor the ionosphere over Europe from the measured delays in the GNSS signals, and provides publicly several derived products. The main ROB products consist of ionospheric vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) maps over Europe and their variability estimated in near real-time every 15 min on 0.5° × 0.5° grids using GPS observations. The maps are available online with a latency of ~3 min in IONEX format at ftp://gnss.oma.be and as interactive web pages at www.gnss.be. This paper presents the method used in the ROB-IONO software to generate the maps. The ROB-TEC maps show a good agreement with widely used post-processed products such as IGS and ESA with mean differences of 1.3 ± 0.9 and 0.4 ± 1.6 TECu respectively for the period 2012 to mid-2013. In addition, we tested the reliability of the ROB-IONO software to detect abnormal ionospheric activity during the Halloween 2003 ionospheric storm. For this period, the mean differences with IGS and ESA maps are 0.9 ± 2.2 and 0.6 ± 6.8 TECu respectively with maximum differences (>38 TECu) occurring during the major phase of the storm. These differences are due to the lower resolution in time and space of both IGS and ESA maps compared to the ROB-TEC maps. A description of two recent events, one on March 17, 2013 and one on February 27, 2014 also highlights the capability of the method adopted in the ROB-IONO software to detect in near real-time abnormal ionospheric behaviour over Europe. In that frame, ROB maintains a data base publicly available with identified ionospheric events since 2012.
Journal Article
MoMo: a new empirical model of the Mars ionospheric total electron content based on Mars Express MARSIS data
Aims : Several scientific landers and rovers have reached the Martian surface since the 1970s. Communication between the asset (i.e., lander or rover) and Mars orbiters or Earth antennas uses radio signals in UHF to X-band frequencies passing through the Mars’ ionosphere. It is consequently necessary to take into account electron density variation in the Mars’ ionosphere to correct the refraction of the signal transmitted. Methods : We developed a new empirical model of the Mars’ ionosphere called MoMo. It is based on the large database of Total Electron Content (TEC) derived from the subsurface mode of the Mars Express MARSIS radar. The model provides vertical TEC as a function of solar zenith angle, solar activity, solar longitude and location. For validation, the model is compared with Mars Express radio occultation data as well as with the numerical model IPIM (IRAP Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model). Results : We discussed the output of the model in terms of climatology behaviour of the Mars’ ionosphere. The output of MoMo is then uses to quantify the impact of the Martian ionosphere for radio-science experiments. From our results, the effect is of the order of 10 −3 mm s −1 in Doppler observables especially around sunrise and sunset. Consequently, this new model could be used to support the data analysis of any radio-science experiment and especially for present InSight RISE and futur ExoMars LARA instruments aiming at better understand the deep-interior of Mars.
Journal Article
Multi-instrument observations of the solar eclipse on 20 March 2015 and its effects on the ionosphere over Belgium and Europe
A total solar eclipse occurred on 20 March 2015, with a totality path passing mostly above the North Atlantic Ocean, which resulted in a partial solar eclipse over Belgium and large parts of Europe. In anticipation of this event, a dedicated observational campaign was set up at the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The objective was to perform high-quality observations of the eclipse and the associated effects on the geospace environment by utilising the advanced space- and ground-based instrumentation available to the STCE in order to further our understanding of these effects, particularly on the ionosphere. The study highlights the crucial importance of taking into account the eclipse geometry when analysing the ionospheric behaviour during eclipses and interpreting the eclipse effects. A detailed review of the eclipse geometry proves that considering the actual obscuration level and solar zenith angle at ionospheric heights is much more important for the analysis than at the commonly referenced Earth’s surface or at the plasmaspheric heights. The eclipse occurred during the recovery phase of a strong geomagnetic storm which certainly had an impact on (some of) the ionospheric characteristics and perhaps caused the omission of some “low-profile” effects. However, the analysis of the ionosonde measurements, carried out at unprecedented high rates during the eclipse, suggests the occurrence of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). Also, the high temporal and spatial resolution measurements proved very important in revealing and estimating some finer details of the delay in the ionospheric reaction and the ionospheric disturbances.
Journal Article
The influence of space weather on ionospheric total electron content during the 23rd solar cycle
This paper presents a new empirical model for predicting the daily mean ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) at a given latitude from only one solar index as input. For the development of the model we take advantage of the availability of 15 years of global GNSS-based TEC information and solar indices (Sunspot Number, F10.7 and derived F10.7P) including the 23rd solar cycle. Among all the tests, our preferred ionospheric climatological model to predict daily mean TEC presents yearly median differences with observed values of 1.4 ± 0.9 TECu (11.5 ± 2.9% for the relative differences) with no significant degradation during the different phases of the solar cycle. To realize this empirical model we used a least-square adjustment with (1) a combination of linear, annual and semi-annual terms between the TEC and F10.7P; (2) a discretization with respect to the phases of the solar cycle. The main differences between the modelled and the observed TEC occur during identified geomagnetic storms: the maximum differences (−3.2 ± 1.5 TECu) and relative differences (−19.6 ± 15.0%) occur one day after the storm onset. The typical time to retrieve the pre-storm conditions is 3–4 days after the onset. These results show a global picture of the effect of extreme Space Weather events on the Earth’s upper atmosphere.
Journal Article