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"Chiarella, Carl"
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The dynamics of Keynesian monetary growth
This book is in the tradition of non-market-clearing approaches to macrodynamic economics. It shows for the first time that macrodynamics can be developed and investigated in a systematic fashion, leading to coherent models of fluctuation growth. This differs considerably from the microfounded full equilibrium approaches which are currently fashionable
Book
Business fluctuations and long-phased cycles in high order macrosystems
In this book the authors investigate, from the numerical perspective, the 18D core dynamics of a theoretical 39D representation of an applied Keynesian disequilibrium model of monetary growth of a small open economy. After considering the model from the viewpoint of national accounting, the authors provide a compact description of the intensive form of the model, its laws of motion and accompanying algebraic expressions and its unique interior steady state solution. The authors then give a survey of various types of subsystems that can be isolated from the integrated 18D dynamics by means of suitable assumptions. These subsystems and the full 18D dynamics are investigated and compared in the remainder of the paper from the perspective of bifurcation diagrams that separate situations of asymptotic stability from stable cyclical behaviour as well as pure explosiveness. In this way the authors lay the foundations for an analysis of business cycle fluctuations in applicable high order macrosystems, which will show, in contrast to what is generally believed to characterise such structural macroeconometric models, that applied integrated macrodynamical systems can have a variety of interesting more or less complex attractors which are surrounded by more or less long-phase transient behaviour. Such attractors are obtained in particular when locally explosive situations are turned into bounded dynamics by the addition of specifically tailored extrinsic behavioural non-linearities. The authors establish a Keynesian theory of endogenously generated business cycles where turning points are caused by globally non-linear behaviour, rather than by complex eigenvalues, around the steady state position of the economy.
eBook
MONETARY POLICY AND DEBT DEFLATION: SOME COMPUTATIONAL EXPERIMENTS
The paper presents an agent-based model to study the possible effects of different fiscal and monetary policies in the context of debt deflation. We introduce a modified Taylor rule that includes the financial position of firms as a target. Monte Carlo simulations provide a representation of the complex feedback effects generated by the interaction among the different transmission channels of monetary policy. The model also reproduces the evidence of low inflation during stock market booms and shows how it can lead to overinvestment and destabilize the system. The paper also investigates the possible reasons behind this stylized fact by testing different behavioral rules for the central bank. We find that, in a context of sticky prices and volatile expectations, endogenous credit creation can be identified as the main source of the divergent dynamics of prices in the real and financial sectors.
Journal Article
The evaluation of American compound option prices under stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates
A compound option (the mother option) gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (long) or sell (short) the underlying option (the daughter option). In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing American-type compound options when the underlying dynamics follow Heston 's stochastic volatility and with stochastic interest rate driven by Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes. We use a partial differential equation (PDE) approach to obtain a numerical solution. The problem is formulated as the solution to a two-pass free-boundary PDE problem, which is solved via a sparse grid approach and is found to be accurate and efficient compared with the results from a benchmark solution based on a least-squares Monte Carlo simulation combined with the projected successive over-relaxation method. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Journal Article
The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth
Originally published in 2000, this book is in the tradition of non-market-clearing approaches to macrodynamic approaches. It builds a series of integrated disequilibrium growth models of increasing complexity, which display the economic interaction between households, firms and government across labour, goods, money, bonds and equities markets. Chiarella and Flaschel demonstrate how macrodynamics can be developed in a hierarchical way from economically simple structures to more advanced ones. In addition it investigates complex macrodynamic feedback mechanisms.
eBook
Stabilizing an unstable economy: On the choice of proper policy measures
In the last months, the world's economies were confronted with the largest economic recession since the Great Depression. The occurrence of a worldwide financial market meltdown as a consequence originally stemming from of the crisis in the US subprime housing sector was only prevented by extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy measures implemented at the international level. Although the world economy seems now to be slowing recovering, it is worthwhile exploring the fragility and potentially destabilizing feedbacks of advanced macroeconomies in the context of Keynesian macro models. Fragilities and destabilizing feedback mechanisms are known to be potential features of all markets-the product markets, the labor market, and the financial markets. In this paper we focus in particular on the financial market. We use a Tobin-like macroeconomic portfolio approach, and the interaction of heterogeneous agents on the financial market to characterize the potential instability of the financial markets. Though the study of the latter has been undertaken in many partial models, we focus here on the interconnectedness of all three markets. Furthermore, we also study how labor market, fiscal and monetary policies can stabilize unstable macroeconomies. Besides other stabilizing policies we in particular propose a countercyclical monetary policy that sells assets in the boom and purchases assets in recessions. Modern stability analysis is brought to bear to demonstrate the stabilizing effects of those suggested policies.
Journal Article
A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE MICROSTRUCTURE OF MOVING AVERAGE RULES IN A DOUBLE AUCTION MARKET
Inspired by the theoretically oriented dynamic analysis of moving average rules in the model of Chiarella, He, and Hommes (CHH) [Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30 (2006), 1729—1753], this paper conducts a dynamic analysis of a more realistic microstructure model of continuous double auctions in which the probability of heterogeneous agents trading is determined by the rules of either fundamentalists mean-reverting to the fundamental or chartists choosing moving average rules based on their relative performance. With such a realistic market microstructure, the model is able not only to obtain the results of the CHH model but also to characterize most of the stylized facts including volatility clustering, insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) of returns, and significant slowly decaying ACs of the absolute returns. The results seem to suggest that a comprehensive explanation of several statistical properties of returns is possible in a framework where both behavioral traits and realistic microstructure have a role.
Journal Article