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"Chiozza, Giacomo"
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Leaders and international conflict
\"Chiozza and Goemans seek to explain why and when political leaders decide to initiate international crises and wars. They argue that the fate of leaders and the way leadership changes shapes leaders' decisions to initiate international conflict. Leaders who anticipate regular removal from office, through elections for example, have little to gain and much to lose from international conflict, whereas leaders who anticipate a forcible removal from office, e.g. through coup or revolution, have little to lose and much to gain from conflict. This theory is tested against an extensive analysis of more than 80 years of international conflict andwith an intensive historical examination of Central American leaders from 1848 to 1918. Leaders and International Conflict highlights the political nature of the choice between war and peace and will appeal to all scholars of international relations and comparative politics\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Presidents on the cycle
This study investigates an observable implication of audience cost theory. Building upon rational expectations theories of voters' choice and foreign policy substitutability theory, it posits that audience costs vary over the electoral calendar. It then assesses whether US presidents' major responses in international crises reflect the variability in audience costs in an analysis of 66 international crises between 1937 and 2006. Using out-of-sample tests, this study finds that tying-hand commitment strategies were more frequent closer to presidential elections, as expected from audience cost theory. It also finds that the fluctuation of audience costs over the electoral calendar is non-linear.
Journal Article
Taming Japan's deflation : the debate over unconventional monetary policy
\"Discusses how entrenched monetary policy ideas within the Bank of Japan, protected by policy network, inhibited addressing persistent deflation since its de jure independence of 1998\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders
Scholars for a long time theorized about the role of political leaders, but empirical research has been limited by the lack of systematic data about individual leaders. Archigos is a new dataset with information on leaders in 188 countries from 1875 to 2004. We provide an overview of the main features of this data. Archigos specifically identifies the effective leaders of each independent state; it codes when and how leaders came into power, their age, and their gender, as well as their personal fate one year after they lost office. We illustrate the utility of the Archigos dataset by demonstrating how leader attributes predict other features of interest in International Relations and Comparative Politics. Crisis interactions differ depending on whether leaders face each other for the first time or have had prior interactions. Irregular leader changes can help identify political change in autocracies not apparent from data that consider only the democratic nature of institutions. Finally, transitions to democracy in the third wave are more likely to fail in instances where autocratic rulers were punished after leaving office. Our examples illustrate new empirical findings that simply could not be explored in existing data sources. Although selective, our overview demonstrates how Archigos bears considerable promise in providing answers to new and old research questions and opens up new avenues for research on individual leaders as decisionmakers.
Journal Article
Leaders and international conflict
The role of leadership in international conflict has recently become one of the most dynamic research agendas in international relations. This book seeks to explain why and when political leaders decide to initiate international wars and argues that the fate of leaders shapes their decisions to initiate international conflict.
eBook
International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?
Recent work in comparative politics and international relations has shown a marked shift toward leaders as the theoretical unit of analysis. In most of the new theoretical models a core assumption is that leaders act to stay in power. There exists, however, remarkably little systematic empirical knowledge about the factors that affect the tenure of leaders. To provide a baseline of empirical results we explore how a broad range of domestic and international factors affects the tenure of leaders. We focus in particular on the effect of conflict and its outcome. We find that political institutions fundamentally mediate the costs and benefits of international conflict and that war is not necessarily ex post inefficient for leaders. This suggests that the assumption that war is ex post inefficient for unitary rational actors can not be simply extended to leaders. Therefore, a focus on leaders may yield important new rationalist explanations for war.
Journal Article
Guess Who Did What: Political Leaders and the Management of Territorial Disputes, 1950-1990
The impact of the political characteristics of national leaders on the management of territorial disputes is investigated to learn what kinds of leaders are more likely to resort to strategies of peaceful resolution. The choice to pursue strategies of accommodation and compromise is in part a function of leaders' time in office and the reputation they have established through their international conflict behavior and their military expertise. This is because leaders face different incentives as their tenure in office grows longer and because their reputation can be a form of expendable political capital that enables leaders to initiate a significant foreign policy change. A territorial dispute data set and a leader data set for the period from 1950 to 1990 are used to test this argument. An analysis using ordered probit models gives credence to the conjecture that leaders' characteristics are systematically associated with the choice of pursuing a peaceful resolution of a territorial dispute.
Journal Article
Perceptions of Competence and the European Economic Crisis: A Micro-Level Analysis
This study provides micro-level evidence for the new theories of accountability under globalization. We analyze the micro-level logic that underpins political accountability in democratic countries with highly globalized economies. We contend that voters discount current economic conditions in evaluating incumbent leaders if they perceive the incumbent leader moving the country in the right direction. We test this argument with survey data from eight European countries in 2012, while controlling for potential alternative explanations associated with pocketbook, sociotropic, and clarity-of-responsibility factors. We find that valence considerations related to future directions in the country sustain positive evaluations of leaders' performance even in the face of negative evaluations of the economy.
Journal Article
Is There a Clash of Civilizations? Evidence from Patterns of International Conflict Involvement, 1946-97
This article offers an empirical test of Huntington's thesis in \"The Clash of Civilizations.\" Huntington argues that states belonging to different civilizations will have a higher propensity to be involved in international conflict. This effect should be more prominent in the post-Cold War period. The civilization factor should also interact with membership in different Cold War blocs, border contiguity, regime type, and levels of modernization, magnifying or depressing the basic effects of these variables. To test these hypotheses, a logit specification with King & Zeng's solution for rareness of events is used on the Kosimo data. The Kosimo data allow for an extension of the empirical analysis from both a temporal and a substantive point of view. This study shows that state interactions across the civilizational divide are not more conflict prone. The first eight years of the post-Cold War era also fail to give support to Huntington's thesis. Moreover, while the civilization factor modifies the effects of border contiguity and regime type, this is not sufficient to generate conditions under which differences in civilizational heritage are associated with greater risks of conflict.
Journal Article