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To evaluate the ability of pretreatment liver stiffness measurements (pLSM) to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), incident decompensation and all-cause mortality in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). 773 CHC patients with SVR after DAA treatment and no prior liver complications were identified retrospectively. Optimized cut-off of 17.5 kPa for incident HCC was selected by maximum Youden's index. Patients were grouped by pLSM: <10 kPa [reference], 10-17.4 kPa and ≥17.5 kPa. Primary outcomes were incident hepatocellular carcinoma and secondary outcomes were incident decompensated cirrhosis and all-cause mortality, analyzed using cox-regression. Median follow-up was 36 months and 43.5% (336) had cirrhosis (LSM>12.5 kPa). The median pLSM was 11.6 kPa (IQR 6.7-17.8, range 2.5-75) and pLSM of <10 kPa, 10-17.4 kPa and 17.5-75 kPa was seen in 41.5%, 32.2% and 26.3%. During a median follow-up time of 36 months, 11 (1.4%) developed HCC, 14 (1.5%) developed decompensated cirrhosis, and 38 (4.9%) patients died. A pLSM of 17.5 kPa identified patients with a high risk of HCC with a negative predictive value of 98.9% and incidence rate of HCC in the 17.5-75 kPa group of 1.40/100 person years compared to 0.14/100 person years and 0.12/100 person years in the 10-17.4 kPa and <10 kPa groups, p<0.001. Pretreatment LSM predicts risk of HCC, decompensation and all-cause mortality in patients with SVR after DAA treatment. Patients with a pLSM <17.5 kPa and no other risk factors for chronic liver disease appear not to benefit from HCC surveillance for the first 3 years after treatment. Longer follow-up is needed to clarify if they can be safely excluded from post treatment HCC screening hereafter.

Patients with chronic hepatitis C may have advanced fibrosis at first evaluation. Using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) definition (FibroScan® >9.5 kPa) for “late presenter for care” (LP), we found that 32% (169 of 527) of patients were LP. Being a LP was associated with increasing age and a history of alcohol overuse.

It is unknown whether socioeconomic status (SES) is a risk factor for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection or a prognostic factor following infection. FROM DANISH NATIONWIDE REGISTRIES, WE OBTAINED INFORMATION ON THREE MARKERS OF SES: employment, income, and education. In a case control design, we examined HCV infected patients and controls; conditional logistic regression was employed to obtain odds ratios (ORs) for HCV infection for each of the three SES markers, adjusting for the other two SES markers, comorbidity, and substance abuse. In a cohort design, we used Cox regression analysis to compute mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for each of the three SES markers, adjusting for the other two SES markers, comorbidity level, age, substance abuse, and gender. When compared to employed persons, ORs for HCV infection were 2.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.24-3.26) for disability pensioners and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.83-2.72) for the unemployed. When compared to persons with a high income, ORs were 1.64 (95% CI: 1.34-2.01) for low income persons and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.02-1.40) for medium income persons. The OR was 1.35 (95% CI: 1.20-1.52) for low education (no more than basic schooling). When compared to employed patients, MRRs were 1.71 (95% CI: 1.22-2.40) for unemployed patients and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.63-3.08) for disability pensioners. When compared to high income patients, MRRs were 1.47 (95% CI: 1.05-2.05) for medium income patients and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.13-2.34) for low income patients. Educational status was not associated with mortality. Low SES was associated with an increased risk of HCV infection and with poor prognosis in HCV infected patients.

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) causes liver cirrhosis in 5%-20% of patients, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to estimate liver-related morbidity and mortality among patients with CHC and cirrhosis in Denmark with and without antiviral treatment and sustained virologic response (SVR). Furthermore we aimed to estimate the rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and decompensation associated with certain prognostic factors. Patients with CHC and cirrhosis registered in the Danish Database for Hepatitis B and C were eligible. Cirrhosis was based on liver biopsy, transient elastography, and clinical cirrhosis. Data were extracted from nationwide registries. The study period was from 2002 until 2013. Of 1,038 patients included, 716 (69%) were male and the median age was 52 years. Median follow-up was 3.8 years, 360 patients died, and 233 of 519 treated patients achieved SVR. Alcohol overuse and hepatitis C virus genotype 3 were associated with an increased incidence rate (IR) of HCC, whereas diabetes and alcohol overuse were associated with increased IRs of decompensation. Achieving SVR reduced all-cause mortality (adjusted mortality rate ratio 0.68 [95% CI 0.43-1.09]) and liver-related mortality (mortality rate ratio 0.6 [95% CI 0.36-1]), as well as liver-related morbidity with adjusted IR ratios of 0.37 (95% CI 0.22-0.62) for HCC and 0.31 (95% CI 0.17-0.57) for decompensation. The IRs of HCC and decompensation remained elevated in patients with alcohol overuse after SVR. Alcohol overuse, hepatitis C genotype 3, and diabetes were associated with liver-related morbidity in patients with CHC and cirrhosis. SVR markedly reduced liver-related morbidity and mortality; however, special attention to patients with alcohol overuse should continue after SVR.

Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI) in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis) = -12.17+ (age × 0.11) + (BMI (kg/m(2)) × 0.23) + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol)×(-0.013)) + (Platelet count (x10(9)/L) × (-0.018)) + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96). The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98). In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Background Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) can be eliminated as a public health threat by meeting the WHO targets: 90% of patients diagnosed and 80% treated by 2030. To achieve and monitor progress towards elimination, an updated estimate of the size of the CHC population is needed, but Denmark has no complete national CHC register. By combining existing registers in 2007, we estimated the population living with CHC to be 16,888 (0.38% of the adult population). Aim To estimate the population living with diagnosed and undiagnosed CHC in Denmark on 31 December 2016. Among additional aims were to estimate the proportion of patients attending specialised clinical care. Methods People with diagnosed CHC were identified from four national registers. The total diagnosed population was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. The undiagnosed population was estimated by comparing the register data with data from two cross-sectional surveys. Results The population living with diagnosed CHC in Denmark was 7,581 persons (95%CI: 7,416–12,661) of which 6,116 (81%) were identified in the four registers. The estimated undiagnosed fraction was 24%, so the total CHC infected population was 9,975 corresponding to 0.21% of the adult population (95%CI: 9,758–16,659; 0.21%-0.36%). Only 48% of diagnosed patients had received specialised clinical care. Conclusion CHC prevalence in Denmark is declining and 76% of patients have been diagnosed. Linking diagnosed patients to care and increasing efforts to test people with former or current drug use will be necessary to achieve CHC elimination.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is prevalent among people in prison and prisons could therefore represent a unique opportunity to test risk groups for HCV. The aim of this sero-epidemiological study was to determine the incidence and prevalence of HCV infection and the corresponding risk factors in Danish prisons. Participants, recruited from eight Danish prisons, were tested for HCV using dried blood spots and filled out a questionaire with demographic data and risk factors for HCV infection. In total, 76.9% (801/1041) of all eligible prisoners consented to participate. The prevalence of HCV RNA positive prisoners was 4.2% (34/801) and the in-prison incidence rate was 0.7-1.0 per 100PY overall and 18-24/100PY among PWIDs. Infected prisoners were older than the overall population with a mean age of 42 years and only 17.6% (6/34) were younger than 35 years. The prevalence of PWID was 8.5% (68/801) and only 3% (2/68) of PWID were younger than 25 years. Among the PWID, 85.3% (58/68) had ever received opioid substitution therapy (OST) and 47.1% (32/68) were currently receiving OST. Risk factors associated with HCV infection were intravenous drug use, age ≥ 40 years, and being incarcerated ≥ 10 years. In conclusion, the prevalence of PWID in Danish prisons is low, possibly reflecting a decrease in injecting among the younger generation. This together with OST coverage could explain the low prevalence of HCV infection. However among PWIDs in prison the incidence remains high, suggesting a need for improved HCV prevention in prison.

Non-invasive methods are the first choice for liver fibrosis evaluation in chronic liver diseases, but few studies investigate the ability of combined methods to predict outcomes. 591 chronic hepatitis C patients with baseline liver stiffness (LSM) by FibroScan and hyaluronic acid measurements were identified retrospectively. The patients were grouped by baseline LSM: < 10kPa, 10-16.9kPa, and 17-75kPa. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and liver-related mortality, analyzed using cox regression and competing risk regression models, respectively. Median follow-up was 46.1 months. Prevalence of cirrhosis at baseline was 107/591 (18.1%). Median LSM was 6.8kPa (IQR 5.3-11.6) and divided into groups, 404/591 (68.4%) had a LSM < 10kPa, 100/591 (16.9%) had a LSM between 10-16.9kPa and 87/591 (14.7%) had a LSM between 17-75kPa. There were 69 deaths, 27 from liver-related disease. 26 patients developed cirrhosis and 30 developed complications of cirrhosis. The mortality rate in the 17-75kPa group was 9.7/100 person-years, compared to 2.2/100 person-years and 1.1/100 person-years in the 10-16.9kPa and <10kPa groups (p<0.005). Liver-related mortality increased 10-fold for each group (p<0.005). Cirrhotic complications occurred almost exclusively in the 17-75kPa group, with an incidence of 10.3/100 person-years, compared to 1.8/100 person-years and 0.2/100 person-years in the 10-16.9kPa and <10kPa groups (p<0.005). Median hyaluronic acid in the 17-75kPa group was approximately 200ng/mL. Patients with a LSM 17-75kPa had significantly higher risks of death, liver-related death, and complications to cirrhosis if their hyaluronic acid measurement was more than or equal to 200ng/mL at baseline, with hazard ratios of 3.25 (95% CI 1.48-7.25), 7.7 (95% CI 2.32-28), and 3.2 (95% CI 1.35-7.39), respectively. The combination of LSM and circulating hyaluronic acid measurements significantly improved prognostic ability, relative to LSM alone. Combined static and dynamic markers of liver fibrosis could provide superior risk prediction.

Denmark has signed the WHO strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV). In the absence of a national strategy for elimination, a local action plan was developed in the Region of Southern Denmark (RSD). The aim of the strategy is to diagnose 90% of HCV-infected persons and treat 80% of those diagnosed by 2025. The strategy was developed by reviewing Danish data on HCV epidemiology and drug use to identify key populations for screening, linkage to care, and treatment. Based on available published data from 2016, an estimated 3028 persons in the RSD were HCV-RNA positive (population prevalence 0.21%). Of these, 1002 were attending clinical care, 1299 were diagnosed but not in clinical care, and 727 were undiagnosed. Three different interventions targeting the HCV-infected population and two interventions for HCV surveillance are planned to achieve elimination. The “C-Free-South” strategy aims to eliminate HCV in our region by identifying (90%) and treating (80%) of infected persons by the end of 2025, 5 years earlier than the WHO elimination target date.

A method for assessment of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis without the need for a liver biopsy is desirable. Microfibrillar-associated protein 4 (MFAP4) is a suggested biomarker for identification of high-risk patients with severe fibrosis stages. This study aimed to examine associations between plasma MFAP4 (pMFAP4) and transient elastography or chronic hepatitis C virus infection in drug users and in a mixed patient cohort with increased risk of liver disease. Moreover, the study aimed to identify comorbidities that significantly influence pMFAP4. pMFAP4 was measured in samples from 351 drug users attending treatment centres and from 248 acutely hospitalized medical patients with mixed diagnoses. Linear and logistic multivariate regression analyses were performed and nonparametric receiver operating characteristic-curves for cirrhosis were used to estimate cut-off points for pMFAP4. Univariate and subgroup analyses were performed using non-parametric methods. pMFAP4 increased significantly with liver fibrosis score. pMFAP4 was significantly associated with chronic viral infection in the drug users and with transient elastography in both cohorts. In the mixed patient cohort, pMFAP4 was significantly increased among patients with a previous diagnosis of liver disease or congestive heart failure compared to patients with other diagnoses. pMFAP4 has the potential to be used as an outreach-screening tool for liver fibrosis in drug users and in mixed medical patients. pMFAP4 level is positively associated with transient elastography, but additional studies are warranted to validate the possible use of pMFAP4 in larger cohorts and in combination with transient elastography.