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Municipalities across the United States are prioritizing green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) projects due to their potential to concurrently optimize the social, economic, and environmental benefits of the “triple bottom line”. While placement of these features is often based on biophysical variables regarding the natural and built environments, highly urbanized areas often exhibit either limited data or minimal variability in these characteristics. Using a case study of Philadelphia and building on previous work to prioritize GSI features in disadvantaged communities, this study addresses the dual concerns of the inequitable benefits of distribution and suitable site placement of GSI using a model to evaluate and integrate social variables to support decision making regarding GSI implementation. Results of this study indicate locations both suitable and optimal for the implementation of four types of GSI features: tree trenches, pervious pavement, rain gardens, and green roofs. Considerations of block-level site placement assets and liabilities are discussed, with recommendations for use of this analysis for future GSI programs.

The diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin), a brackish water turtle species native to the eastern United States, is under “special concern” in the state of New Jersey, due to decreasing habitat from development and changing climatic conditions. Diamondback terrapins reside in saline marshes and coastal wetlands and nest in sandy substrate, primarily beaches and dunes, in June and July. New Jersey is vulnerable to sea level rise, leaving diamondback terrapin habitats and nesting areas at risk of inundation under future climate scenarios, and, as the most densely populated state, subject to continual development pressures on potentially conservable land. Changing sea levels and climatic conditions will cause accretion and migration of marshes into open grassy land, yielding new potential terrapin habitats, though changing temperatures could affect the availability of male-producing nesting sites and impact potential nesting patterns. This study spatially modeled lost, gained, and changed habitat and nesting areas under sea level rise scenarios for 2050 and 2100 in New Jersey and quantified these by municipality to offer insights into potential conservable land that may mitigate these changes for the vulnerable species. The results indicate an overall decrease in potential habitat coupled with a decrease in both overall and male-producing nesting ranges.

Maize is an important staple crop in Mexico, and the recent intensification of climate variability, in combination with non-climatic forces, has hindered increases in production, especially for smallholder farmers. This article demonstrates the influence of these drivers on maize production trends in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula using a mixed methods approach of climatic analysis and semi-structured interviews. Climate trend analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs) demonstrate relationships between production and climatic variability, using 1980-2010 precipitation and temperature data. Data from forty interviews with government officials and representatives of farmers' associations (gathered in 2015 and 2016) highlight the influence of agricultural policy on maize production in the region. The climate trend analysis yielded mixed results, with a statistically significant negative rainfall trend for Quintana Roo and variability in maximum temperature changes across the region, with an increase in Yucatan State and Quintana Roo and a decrease in Campeche. Climate and production GAMs indicate a strong significant relationship between production and climate fluctuations for Campeche (79%) and Quintana Roo (72%) and a weaker significant relationship for the Yucatan State (31%). Informants identified precipitation variability and ineffective public policies for smallholder agricultural development as primary obstacles for maize production, including inadequate design of agricultural programs, inconsistent agricultural support, and ineffective farmers' organizations. Quantifying the influence of climate change on maize production, and the amplifying influence of national and regional agricultural policy for smallholder farmers, will inform more appropriate policy design and implementation.

Drawing on pre-disaster, peri-disaster, and post-disaster data, this study examined factors associated with the development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in older adults exposed to Hurricane Sandy. We used a sample of older participants matched by gender, exposure, and geographic region (N=88, mean age=59.83 years) in which one group reported clinically significant levels of PTSD symptoms and the other did not. We conducted t-tests, chi-square tests, and exact logistic regressions to examine differences in pre-disaster characteristics and peri-disaster experiences. Older adults who experienced PTSD symptoms reported lower levels of income, positive affect, subjective health, and social support and were less likely to be working 4 to 6 years before Hurricane Sandy than were people not experiencing PTSD symptoms. Those developing PTSD symptoms reported more depressive symptoms, negative affect, functional disability, chronic health conditions, and pain before Sandy and greater distress and feelings of danger during Hurricane Sandy. Exact logistic regression revealed independent effects of preexisting chronic health conditions and feelings of distress during Hurricane Sandy in predicting PTSD group status. Our findings indicated that because vulnerable adults can be identified before disaster strikes, the opportunity to mitigate disaster-related PTSD exists through identification and resource programs that target population subgroups. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:362-370).

Precipitation and temperature enact variable influences on vegetation, impacting the type and condition of land cover, as well as the assessment of change over broad landscapes. Separating the influence of vegetative variability independent and discrete land cover change remains a major challenge to landscape change assessments. The heterogeneous Lerma-Chapala-Santiago watershed of central Mexico exemplifies both natural and anthropogenic forces enacting variability and change on the landscape. This study employed a time series of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) composites from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS) for 2001–2007 and per-pixel multiple linear regressions in order to model changes in EVI as a function of precipitation, temperature, and elevation. Over the seven-year period, 59.1% of the variability in EVI was explained by variability in the independent variables, with highest model performance among changing and heterogeneous land cover types, while intact forest cover demonstrated the greatest resistance to changes in temperature and precipitation. Model results were compared to an independent change uncertainty assessment, and selected regional samples of change confusion and natural variability give insight to common problems afflicting land change analyses.

Historical, institutional racism within the housing market may have impacted present-day disparities in heat vulnerability. We quantified associations between historically redlined areas with present-day property and housing characteristics that may enhance heat vulnerability in Philadelphia, PA. We used color-coded Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) maps and tax assessment data to randomly select 100 present-day (2018–2019) residential properties in each HOLC grade area (A = Best; B, C, and D = Most hazardous; N = 400 total). We conducted virtual inventories of the properties using aerial and streetview imagery for land cover and housing characteristics (dark roof color, flat roof shape, low or no mature tree canopy, no recently planted street trees) that may enhance heat vulnerability. We used modified Poisson regression models to estimate associations of HOLC grades with the property characteristics, unadjusted and adjusted for historical and contemporary measures of the neighborhood sociodemographic environment. Compared to grade A areas, higher proportions of properties in grade B, C, and D areas had dark roofs, low/no mature tree canopy, and no street trees. Adjusting for historical sociodemographics attenuated associations, with only associations with low or no tree canopy remaining elevated. Adjusting for present-day concentrated racial and socioeconomic deprivation did not substantially impact overall findings. In Philadelphia, PA, HOLC maps serve as spatial representations of present-day housing and land cover heat vulnerability characteristics. Further analyses incorporating longitudinal data on urban redevelopment, reinvestment, and neighborhood change are needed to more fully represent complex relationships among historical racism, residential segregation, and heat vulnerability.

This study addresses changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation from 1982 to 2016 from three meteorological stations around Calakmul, Mexico, a landscape balancing biodiversity conservation and smallholder agricultural production. Five methods were used to assess changes in precipitation: the Mann-Kendall test of annual and wet season trends; a fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season; the Gini Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation; Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) to evaluate precipitation intensity; and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to identify the deficit or surplus of rainfall compared with the long-term mean. Overall, rainfall trends in Calakmul over this period indicate a slight increase, though results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) all indicate that rainfall has become more intense and more unevenly distributed throughout the year. There was no significant trend in the onset date of rainfall or the RAI overall, though there were more pronounced crests and troughs from 2004 to 2016. Higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, suggest that rainfall in the Calakmul region has become more extreme. This research informs for management and livelihood strategies in the local region and offers insights for analyses of regional patterns of seasonal precipitation events in tropical landscapes worldwide.

The interplay among conservation, agricultural policy, and rainfall variability can intensify hardship for those practicing smallholder agriculture, especially in tropical developing countries. This article addresses these challenges as faced by the municipality of Calakmul, Mexico. Forty in-depth, semi-structured interviews with smallholders, governmental agents, and NGO representatives, all conducted between July and November 2018, are paired with quantitative precipitation analyses. Interviews cited changes in the production system and in smallholders’ livelihoods, including the intensification of production across a smaller area coupled with shorter fallow periods and a greater reliance on agricultural subsidies and inputs, which are driven both by agricultural policies and conservation policies to decrease deforestation rates. Precipitation analyses demonstrated that, even though annual and seasonal rainfall trends in Calakmul are slightly positive during the study period, the onset of the rainy season and the intensity of rains have been changing. Results indicate an increased intensity of rainfall events, with delayed onset of precipitation and considerable interannual variability. Though conservation in the area is a widely cited priority, results showed that agricultural policies and precipitation changes are dominant influences on smallholders’ agricultural decisions. Therefore, any successful conservation measures should be aligned to agricultural and climate change policies. La interacción entre la conservación, la política agrícola y la variabilidad de las precipitaciones puede intensificar las dificultades de quienes practican la agricultura en pequeña escala, especialmente en los países tropicales en desarrollo. Con el objetivo de abordar dichos retos en el municipio de Calakmul (México), entre julio y noviembre de 2018 se realizaron cuarenta entrevistas a profundidad, semiestructuradas a pequeños agricultores, agentes gubernamentales y representantes de organizaciones no gubernamentales. También se realizó un análisis cuantitativo de las precipitaciones. Los testimonios revelaron cambios en el sistema de producción y en los modos de vida de los pequeños agricultores. Estos cambios incluyen la intensificación de la producción en áreas más pequeñas, junto con períodos de barbecho más cortos y una mayor dependencia de los subsidios e insumos agrícolas, impulsados tanto por las políticas agrícolas como por la política de conservación para reducir las tasas de deforestación. El análisis de la precipitación demostró que, aunque las tendencias de precipitación anual y estacional en Calakmul son ligeramente positivas durante el período de estudio, el inicio de la temporada de lluvias y la intensidad de las mismas han ido cambiando. Los resultados indican un aumento de la intensidad de las precipitaciones, con un retraso en el inicio de la temporada lluviosa y una considerable variabilidad interanual. Aunque la conservación en la zona es una prioridad ampliamente citada, los testimonios mostraron que los cambios en la política agrícola y las precipitaciones son influencias dominantes en las decisiones agrícolas de los pequeños agricultores. Por lo tanto, toda medida de conservación que tenga éxito debe ajustarse también a las políticas agrícolas y de cambio climático.