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"Cimbala, Stephen J"
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NUCLEAR-CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND CYBER WAR
States’ actual experience in managing nuclear crises occurred almost entirely prior to the information age. The rule book for nuclear-crisis management in this era of cyber deterrence and cyber war remains to be written. Advanced cyberwar capabilities might interfere with future crisis management, resulting in misperceptions, faulty communications, and hasty judgments.
Journal Article
Nuclear strategy in the twenty-first century
The future of nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy in the 21st century is not entirely predictable from the Cold War past.Nor is it easy to foresee on the basis of what has happened since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
eBook
Civil-Military Relations in Perspective
The topic of civil-military relations has high significance for academics, for policy makers, for military commanders, and for serious students of public policy in democratic and other societies. The post-Cold War and post-9-11 worlds have thrown up traditional as well as new challenges to the effective management of armed forces and defense establishments. Further, the present century has seen a rising arc in the use of armed violence on the part of non-state actors, including terrorists, to considerable political effect. Civil-military relations in the United States, and their implications for US and allied security policies, is the focus of most discussions in this volume, but other contributions emphasize the comparative and cross-national dimensions of the relationship between the use or threat of force and public policy. Authors contributing to this study examine a wide range of issues, including: the contrast between theory and practice in civil-military relations; the role perceptions of military professionals across generations; the character of civil-military relations in authoritarian or other democratically-challenged political systems; the usefulness of business models in military management; the attributes of civil-military relations during unconventional conflicts; the experience of the all-volunteer force and its meaning for US civil-military relations; and other topics. Contributors include civilian academic and policy analysts as well as military officers with considerable academic expertise and experience with the subject matter at hand.
eBook
The Trump Nuclear Posture Review
President Donald J. Trump's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is especially important because of its timing and contents. Together with the administration's National Security Strategy and other documents related to defense and security policy, the NPR offers both continuity and change with respect to the Obama administration's policy statements and guidelines. Russia and China are identified in national security documents as US peer competitors and as systemic disrupters that constitute the main threats to international stability and future American security. This recognition in the NPR and other documents of a return to great power rivalry as the fulcrum of military-strategic activity, including deterrence, explicitly embraces political realism as the preferred model for interpreting international politics. The Trump administration NPR offers proposals and perspectives that require careful consideration by the US national security community. It is more evolutionary than revolutionary in recognizing the need to recapitalize the nuclear force and to rethink the need for flexible nuclear responses in a changing security environment. However, the implications for nuclear arms control are mixed.
Journal Article
Nuclear Arms Control
US nuclear posture includes national priorities for nuclear arms control. One important issue for the Trump administration is the possibility of extending or revising the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) of 2010 that goes into effect in 2018 and expires in 2021. The analysis that follows compares outcomes from New START and lower numbers of deployed weapons for the United States and for Russia, in terms of their implications for deterrence and arms control stability. The significance of missile defenses in this context is also addressed, since Russia has defined US missile defenses as destabilizing with respect to nuclear arms control and potentially nullifying of Russia’s nuclear deterrent.
Journal Article
Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-First Century
Whether the spread of nuclear weapons in the twenty-first century should be feared or welcomed has been the subject of considerable debate. Much of this debate presumes the explanatory and predictive power of realist international system theories (realism) and rational deterrence theory (rational deterrence). Although these bodies of thought offer some important insights about the likelihood and consequences of nuclear weapons spread, they omit important aspects of the problem both theoretically and empirically. Unlike during the Cold War, a multipolar world of regional nuclear rivalries may create an unmanageable stress test for hypotheses built on realism or rational deterrence.
Journal Article
Through a Glass Darkly: Looking at Conflict Prevention, Management, and Termination
Cimbala shows why the prevention, management, and concluding of war all require an understanding of the subjective aspects of decision making as well as the hardware and tactics of military operations. A review of past cases of U.S. security policy decision making and a preview of some future problems are combined to distill important lessons about coping with conflict in the post-Cold War world. These lessons include the awareness that some conflicts are unnecessarily provoked or prolonged on account of the gap between the perspectives and experiences of civilian policy makers and the views of the armed forces leadership. Another important lesson is that, in resolving or managing conflicts, perceptions, and expectations of leaders filter out alternatives that might have led to preferred solutions had they been attempted in good time. Of particular interest to policy makers, military professionals, and researchers involved with contemporary military issues.
eBook
Nuclear deterrence and arms control: a new century
Cimbala and Scouras examine the issues related to the control of nuclear weapons in the early 21st century. These issues are both technical and policy oriented; science and values are commingled. This means that arguments about nuclear strategy, arms control, and proliferation are apt to be contentious and confusing. The authors seek to provide readers with a fuller, more accurate understanding of the issues involved.They begin by analyzing the crazy mathematics of nuclear arms races and arms control that preoccupied analysts and policymakers during the Cold War. After examining stability modeling, they argue for a more comprehensive definition of strategic stability and they relate this more inclusive concept to the current relationship between the United States and Russia-one characterized by cooperation as well as competition. They then use the concept of friction to analyze how the gap between theory and practice might influence nuclear force operations and arms control. The problem of nuclear weapons spread or proliferation is then considered from the vantage point of both theory and policy. They conclude with an analysis of whether the United States might get by in the 21st century with fewer legs of its strategic nuclear triplet than weapons based on land, at sea, and airborne. A provocative analysis for arms control policymakers, strategists, and students, scholars, and other researchers involved with nuclear weapons issues.
eBook
