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Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy is an alternative to chemotherapy for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer (BC). We aimed to assess feasibility of recruiting patients to a study comparing chemotherapy versus endocrine therapy in postmenopausal women with ER-rich primary BC, and response as well as translational endpoints were assessed. Patients requiring neoadjuvant therapy were randomised to chemotherapy: 6 × 3-weekly cycles FE 100 C or endocrine therapy: letrozole 2.5 mg, daily for 18–23 weeks. Primary endpoints were recruitment feasibility and tissue collection. Secondary endpoints included clinical, radiological and pathological response rates, quality of life and translational endpoints. 63/80 patients approached were eligible, of those 44 (70, 95 % CI 57–81) were randomised. 12 (54.5, 95 % CI 32.2–75.6) chemotherapy patients showed radiological objective response compared with 13 (59.1, 95 % CI 36.4–79.3) letrozole patients. Compared with baseline, mean Ki-67 levels fell in both groups at days 2–4 and at surgery [fold change: 0.24 (95 % CI 0.12–0.51) and 0.24; (95 % CI 0.15–0.37), respectively]. Plasma total cfDNA levels rose from baseline to week 8 [fold change: chemotherapy 2.10 (95 % CI 1.47–3.00), letrozole 1.47(95 % CI 0.98–2.20)], and were maintained at surgery in the chemotherapy group [chemotherapy 2.63; 95 % CI 1.56–4.41), letrozole 0.95 (95 % CI 0.71–1.26)]. An increase in plasma let-7a miRNA was seen at surgery for patients with objective radiological response to chemotherapy. Recruitment and tissue collection endpoints were met; however, a larger trial was deemed unfeasible due to slow accrual. Both regimens were equally efficacious. Dynamic changes were seen in Ki-67 and circulating biomarkers in both groups with increases in cfDNA and let-7a miRNA persisting until surgery for chemotherapy patients.

Postmastectomy radiotherapy in patients with four or more positive axillary nodes reduces breast cancer mortality, but its role in patients with one to three involved nodes is controversial. We assessed the effects of postmastectomy radiotherapy on quality of life (QOL) in women with intermediate-risk breast cancer. SUPREMO is an open-label, international, parallel-group, randomised, controlled trial. Women aged 18 years or older with intermediate-risk breast cancer (defined as pT1–2N1; pT3N0; or pT2N0 if also grade III or with lymphovascular invasion) who had undergone mastectomy and, if node positive, axillary surgery, were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive chest wall radiotherapy (50 Gy in 25 fractions or a radiobiologically equivalent dose of 45 Gy in 20 fractions or 40 Gy in 15 fractions) or no radiotherapy. Randomisation was done with permuted blocks of varying block length, and stratified by centre, without masking of patients or investigators. The primary endpoint is 10-year overall survival. Here, we present 2-year results of QOL (a prespecified secondary endpoint). The QOL substudy, open to all UK patients, consists of questionnaires (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BR23, Body Image Scale, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale [HADS], and EQ-5D-3L) completed before randomisation, and at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. The prespecified primary outcomes within this QOL substudy were global QOL, fatigue, physical function, chest wall symptoms, shoulder and arm symptoms, body image, and anxiety and depression. Data were analysed by intention to treat, using repeated mixed-effects methods. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN61145589. Between Aug 4, 2006, and April 29, 2013, 1688 patients were enrolled internationally and randomly assigned to receive chest wall radiotherapy (n=853) or not (n=835). 989 (79%) of 1258 patients from 111 UK centres consented to participate in the QOL substudy (487 in the radiotherapy group and 502 in the no radiotherapy group), of whom 947 (96%) returned the baseline questionnaires and were included in the analysis (radiotherapy, n=471; no radiotherapy, n=476). At up to 2 years, chest wall symptoms were worse in the radiotherapy group than in the no radiotherapy group (mean score 14·1 [SD 15·8] in the radiotherapy group vs 11·6 [14·6] in the no radiotherapy group; effect estimate 2·17, 95% CI 0·40–3·94; p=0·016); however, there was an improvement in both groups between years 1 and 2 (visit effect −1·34, 95% CI −2·36 to −0·31; p=0·010). No differences were seen between treatment groups in arm and shoulder symptoms, body image, fatigue, overall QOL, physical function, or anxiety or depression scores. Postmastectomy radiotherapy led to more local (chest wall) symptoms up to 2 years postrandomisation compared with no radiotherapy, but the difference between groups was small. These data will inform shared decision making while we await survival (trial primary endpoint) results. Medical Research Council, European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer, Cancer Australia, Dutch Cancer Society, Trustees of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation.

BackgroundEffective anticancer therapy is thought to involve induction of tumour cell death through apoptosis and/or necrosis. [18F]ICMT-11, an isatin sulfonamide caspase-3/7-specific radiotracer, has been developed for PET imaging and shown to have favourable dosimetry, safety, and biodistribution. We report the translation of [18F]ICMT-11 PET to measure chemotherapy-induced caspase-3/7 activation in breast and lung cancer patients receiving first-line therapy.ResultsBreast tumour SUVmax of [18F]ICMT-11 was low at baseline and unchanged following therapy. Measurement of M30/M60 cytokeratin-18 cleavage products showed that therapy was predominantly not apoptosis in nature. While increases in caspase-3 staining on breast histology were seen, post-treatment caspase-3 positivity values were only approximately 1%; this low level of caspase-3 could have limited sensitive detection by [18F]ICMT-11-PET. Fourteen out of 15 breast cancer patients responded to first–line chemotherapy (complete or partial response); one patient had stable disease. Four patients showed increases in regions of high tumour [18F]ICMT-11 intensity on voxel-wise analysis of tumour data (classed as PADS); response was not exclusive to patients with this phenotype. In patients with lung cancer, multi-parametric [18F]ICMT-11 PET and MRI (diffusion-weighted- and dynamic contrast enhanced-MRI) showed that PET changes were concordant with cell death in the absence of significant perfusion changes.ConclusionThis study highlights the potential use of [18F]ICMT-11 PET as a promising candidate for non-invasive imaging of caspase3/7 activation, and the difficulties encountered in assessing early-treatment responses. We summarize that tumour response could occur in the absence of predominant chemotherapy-induced caspase-3/7 activation measured non-invasively across entire tumour lesions in patients with breast and lung cancer.

We present a new global reconstruction of seasonal climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) made using 3-D variational data assimilation with pollen-based site reconstructions of six climate variables and the ensemble average of the PMIP3—CMIP5 simulations as a prior (initial estimate of LGM climate). We assume that the correlation matrix of the uncertainties in the prior is both spatially and temporally Gaussian, in order to produce a climate reconstruction that is smoothed both from month to month and from grid cell to grid cell. The pollen-based reconstructions include mean annual temperature (MAT), mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA), growing season warmth as measured by growing degree days above a baseline of 5 ∘C (GDD5), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and a moisture index (MI), which is the ratio of MAP to mean annual potential evapotranspiration. Different variables are reconstructed at different sites, but our approach both preserves seasonal relationships and allows a more complete set of seasonal climate variables to be derived at each location. We further account for the ecophysiological effects of low atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on vegetation in making reconstructions of MAP and MI. This adjustment results in the reconstruction of wetter climates than might otherwise be inferred from the vegetation composition. Finally, by comparing the uncertainty contribution to the final reconstruction, we provide confidence intervals on these reconstructions and delimit geographical regions for which the palaeodata provide no information to constrain the climate reconstructions. The new reconstructions will provide a benchmark created using clear and defined mathematical procedures that can be used for evaluation of the PMIP4–CMIP6 entry-card LGM simulations and are available at https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.244 (Cleator et al., 2020b).

Breast cancers are routinely subcategorised on the basis of clinical stage, cellular morphology and immunohistochemical analysis of a small number of markers. The recent development of gene expression microarray and related technologies provides an opportunity to perform more detailed profiling of the disease. It is anticipated that the molecular classification arising from such studies will be more powerful than its pathological predecessor at confining treatment to those patients who are most likely to benefit. It is likely that this will result in a much less frequent use of adjuvant chemotherapy. Furthermore, of those who do receive it, a higher proportion will benefit. If adopted, this will offer considerable patient benefits in terms of reducing unnecessary toxicity and have major health economic implications.

Background: Recent decades have seen combination chemoradiotherapy become the standard treatment for anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). However, the burden of this disease continues to rise, with only 10% of patients with metastatic disease surviving >2 years. Further insight into tumour characteristics and molecular biology may identify novel therapeutic targets. This systematic review examines current prognostic markers in SCC of the anus. Methods: An extensive literature search was performed to identify studies reporting on biomarkers in anal cancer in the context of clinical outcome following treatment primarily with chemoradiotherapy. Results: In all, 21 studies were included. A total of 29 biomarkers were studied belonging to 9 different functional classes. Of these biomarkers, 13 were found to have an association with outcome in at least one study. The tumour-suppressor genes p53 and p21 were the only markers shown to be of prognostic value in more than one study. Conclusions: An array of biomarkers have been identified that correlate with survival following chemoradiotherapy in anal cancer. However, investigators are yet to identify a biomarker that has the ability to consistently predict outcome in this disease. Further studies are needed to elucidate whether these candidate biomarkers demonstrate their optimum value when they serve as targets for new therapeutic strategies.

We describe a method for reconstructing spatially explicit maps of seasonal paleoclimate variables from site‐based reconstructions. Using a 3‐D‐Variational technique, the method finds the best statistically unbiased, and spatially continuous, estimate of the paleoclimate anomalies through combining the site‐based reconstructions and a prior estimate of the paleoclimate state. By assuming a set of correlations in the error of the prior, the resulting climate is smoothed both from month to month and from grid cell to grid cell. The amount of smoothing can be controlled through the choice of two length‐scale values. The method is applied to a set of reconstructions of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 21,000 years ago) for southern Europe derived from pollen data with a prior derived from results from the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. We demonstrate how to choose suitable values for the smoothing length scales for the data sets used in the reconstruction. Key Points A 3-D-variational technique combining site-based estimates with a model prior is used to reconstruct seasonal paleoclimates The technique produces spatially and seasonally coherent temperature and moisture changes relative to present Climate reconstructions are provided for southern Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum, ca. 21000 years ago

We analysed the molecular genetic profiles of breast cancer samples before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy with combination doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC). DNA was obtained from microdissected frozen breast core biopsies from 44 patients before chemotherapy. Additional samples were obtained before the second course of chemotherapy (D21) and after the completion of the treatment (surgical specimens) in 17 and 21 patients, respectively. Microarray-based comparative genome hybridisation was performed using a platform containing ∼5800 bacterial artificial chromosome clones (genome-wide resolution: 0.9 Mb). Analysis of the 44 pretreatment biopsies revealed that losses of 4p, 4q, 5q, 12q13.11–12q13.12, 17p11.2 and 17q11.2; and gains of 1p, 2p, 7q, 9p, 11q, 19p and 19q were significantly associated with oestrogen receptor negativity. 16q21–q22.1 losses were associated with lobular and 8q24 gains with ductal types. Losses of 5q33.3–q4 and 18p11.31 and gains of 6p25.1–p25.2 and Xp11.4 were associated with HER2 amplification. No correlations between DNA copy number changes and clinical response to AC were found. Microarray-based comparative genome hybridisation analysis of matched pretreatment and D21 biopsies failed to identify statistically significant differences, whereas a comparison between matched pretreatment and surgical samples revealed a statistically significant acquired copy number gain on 11p15.2–11p15.5. The modest chemotherapy-driven genomic changes, despite profound loss of cell numbers, suggest that there is little therapeutic selection of resistant non-modal cell lineages.

Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) presents diagnostic and therapeutic challenges as it produces subtle radiological changes. It has been suggested that it is not suitable for breast conserving surgery (BCS). The aim of this study was to ascertain the diagnostic adequacy of modern mammography and ultrasonography in the context of a fast track symptomatic diagnostic clinic in the UK. It also sought to compare the mastectomy, re-excision and BCS rates for ILC with those for invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data was carried out on all new symptomatic cancers presenting to the one-stop diagnostic clinic of a single breast unit between 1998 and 2007. Compared with IDC, ILC was significantly larger at presentation (46mm vs 25mm), needed re-excision after BCS more often (38.8% vs 22.3%) and required mastectomy more frequently (58.8% vs 40.8%). Although mammography performs poorly in diagnosing ILC compared with IDC, when combined with ultrasonography, sensitivity of the combined imaging was not significantly different between these two histological types. Provided ultrasonography is performed, standard radiological imaging is adequate for initial diagnosis of symptomatically presenting ILC but some additional preoperative workup should clearly be employed to reduce the higher number of reoperations for this histological type.

We aimed to identify a five-fraction schedule of adjuvant radiotherapy (radiation therapy) delivered in 1 week that is non-inferior in terms of local cancer control and is as safe as an international standard 15-fraction regimen after primary surgery for early breast cancer. Here, we present 5-year results of the FAST-Forward trial. FAST-Forward is a multicentre, phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial done at 97 hospitals (47 radiotherapy centres and 50 referring hospitals) in the UK. Patients aged at least 18 years with invasive carcinoma of the breast (pT1–3, pN0–1, M0) after breast conservation surgery or mastectomy were eligible. We randomly allocated patients to either 40 Gy in 15 fractions (over 3 weeks), 27 Gy in five fractions (over 1 week), or 26 Gy in five fractions (over 1 week) to the whole breast or chest wall. Allocation was not masked because of the nature of the intervention. The primary endpoint was ipsilateral breast tumour relapse; assuming a 2% 5-year incidence for 40 Gy, non-inferiority was predefined as ≤1·6% excess for five-fraction schedules (critical hazard ratio [HR] of 1·81). Normal tissue effects were assessed by clinicians, patients, and from photographs. This trial is registered at isrctn.com, ISRCTN19906132. Between Nov 24, 2011, and June 19, 2014, we recruited and obtained consent from 4096 patients from 97 UK centres, of whom 1361 were assigned to the 40 Gy schedule, 1367 to the 27 Gy schedule, and 1368 to the 26 Gy schedule. At a median follow-up of 71·5 months (IQR 71·3 to 71·7), the primary endpoint event occurred in 79 patients (31 in the 40 Gy group, 27 in the 27 Gy group, and 21 in the 26 Gy group); HRs versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were 0·86 (95% CI 0·51 to 1·44) for 27 Gy in five fractions and 0·67 (0·38 to 1·16) for 26 Gy in five fractions. 5-year incidence of ipsilateral breast tumour relapse after 40 Gy was 2·1% (1·4 to 3·1); estimated absolute differences versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were −0·3% (−1·0 to 0·9) for 27 Gy in five fractions (probability of incorrectly accepting an inferior five-fraction schedule: p=0·0022 vs 40 Gy in 15 fractions) and −0·7% (−1·3 to 0·3) for 26 Gy in five fractions (p=0·00019 vs 40 Gy in 15 fractions). At 5 years, any moderate or marked clinician-assessed normal tissue effects in the breast or chest wall was reported for 98 of 986 (9·9%) 40 Gy patients, 155 (15·4%) of 1005 27 Gy patients, and 121 of 1020 (11·9%) 26 Gy patients. Across all clinician assessments from 1–5 years, odds ratios versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions were 1·55 (95% CI 1·32 to 1·83, p<0·0001) for 27 Gy in five fractions and 1·12 (0·94 to 1·34, p=0·20) for 26 Gy in five fractions. Patient and photographic assessments showed higher normal tissue effect risk for 27 Gy versus 40 Gy but not for 26 Gy versus 40 Gy. 26 Gy in five fractions over 1 week is non-inferior to the standard of 40 Gy in 15 fractions over 3 weeks for local tumour control, and is as safe in terms of normal tissue effects up to 5 years for patients prescribed adjuvant local radiotherapy after primary surgery for early-stage breast cancer. National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.