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"Clements, Adam"
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We the children
Sixth-grader Ben Pratt's life is full of changes that he does not like--his parents' separation and the plan to demolish his seaside school to build an amusement park--but when the school janitor gives him a tarnished coin with some old engravings and then dies, Ben is drawn into an effort to keep the school from being destroyed.
Book
The Effect of Transmission Constraints on Electricity Prices
Electricity prices in an interconnected market are influenced by the occurrence of transmission constraints. Until relatively recently, however, the important effects of transmission constraints on both the trajectory and volatility of electricity prices have not played a large role in empirical models of prices. This paper explores the contribution to price volatility in the Queensland electricity market made by transmission constraints. It is found that robust estimation techniques are necessary to guard against incorrect inference in time series models using electricity price data in which severe price spikes occur. The main empirical lesson is that transmission constraints contribute significantly both to the level and variability of price and consequently the performance of a price forecasting model is likely to be improved by incorporating information on transmission constraints. While the general tenor of this conclusion will come as no surprise, the extent and the importance of these effects found in this paper for forecasting price and for computing summary measures like Value-at-Risk serve as a timely reminder to practitioners.
Journal Article
Therapeutic downregulation of neuronal PAS domain 2 (Npas2) promotes surgical skin wound healing
Attempts to minimize scarring remain among the most difficult challenges facing surgeons, despite the use of optimal wound closure techniques. Previously, we reported improved healing of dermal excisional wounds in circadian clock neuronal PAS domain 2 ( Npas2 )-null mice. In this study, we performed high-throughput drug screening to identify a compound that downregulates Npas2 activity. The hit compound (Dwn1) suppressed circadian Npas2 expression, increased murine dermal fibroblast cell migration, and decreased collagen synthesis in vitro. Based on the in vitro results, Dwn1 was topically applied to iatrogenic full-thickness dorsal cutaneous wounds in a murine model. The Dwn1-treated dermal wounds healed faster with favorable mechanical strength and developed less granulation tissue than the controls. The expression of type I collagen, Tgfβ1, and α-smooth muscle actin was significantly decreased in Dwn1-treated wounds, suggesting that hypertrophic scarring and myofibroblast differentiation are attenuated by Dwn1 treatment. NPAS2 may represent an important target for therapeutic approaches to optimal surgical wound management.
Journal Article
In vitro assessment of Neuronal PAS domain 2 mitigating compounds for scarless wound healing
The core circadian gene Neuronal PAS domain 2 (
) is expressed in dermal fibroblasts and has been shown to play a critical role in regulating collagen synthesis during wound healing. We have performed high throughput drug screening to identify genes responsible for downregulation of
while maintaining cell viability. From this, five FDA-approved hit compounds were shown to suppress
expression in fibroblasts. In this study, we hypothesize that the therapeutic suppression of
by hit compounds will have two effects: (1) attenuated excessive collagen deposition and (2) accelerated dermal wound healing without hypertrophic scarring.
To test the effects of each hit compound (named Dwn1, 2, 3, 4, and 5), primary adult human dermal fibroblasts (HDFa) were treated with either 0, 0.1, 1, or 10 μM of a single hit compound. HDFa behaviors were assessed by picrosirius red staining and quantitative RT-PCR for
collagen synthesis, cell viability assay,
fibroblast-to-myofibroblast differentiation test, and cell migration assays.
Dwn1 and Dwn2 were found to significantly affect collagen synthesis and cell migration without any cytotoxicity. Dwn3, Dwn4, and Dwn5 did not affect collagen synthesis and were thereby eliminated from further consideration for their role in mitigation of gene expression or myofibroblast differentiation. Dwn1 also attenuated myofibroblast differentiation on HDFa.
Dwn1 and Dwn2 may serve as possible therapeutic agents for future studies related to skin wound healing.
Journal Article
A multivariate Kernel approach to forecasting the variance covariance of stock market returns
This paper introduces a multivariate kernel based forecasting tool for the prediction of variance-covariance matrices of stock returns. The method introduced allows for the incorporation of macroeconomic variables into the forecasting process of the matrix without resorting to a decomposition of the matrix. The model makes use of similarity forecasting techniques and it is demonstrated that several popular techniques can be thought as a subset of this approach. A forecasting experiment demonstrates the potential for the technique to improve the statistical accuracy of forecasts of variance-covariance matrices.
Journal Article
A marked point process model for intraday financial returns: modeling extreme risk
Forecasting the risk of extreme losses is an important issue in the management of financial risk and has attracted a great deal of research attention. However, little attention has been paid to extreme losses in a higher frequency intraday setting. This paper proposes a novel marked point process model to capture extreme risk in intraday returns, taking into account a range of trading activity and liquidity measures. A novel approach is proposed for defining the threshold upon which extreme events are identified taking into account the diurnal patterns in intraday trading activity. It is found that models including covariates, mainly relating to trading intensity and spreads offer the best in-sample fit, and prediction of extreme risk, in particular at higher quantiles.
Journal Article
Continuum laser absorption spectroscopy of C2(a3Πu) in a sublimating cloud of carbon black
A direct optical absorption diagnostic has been developed for rotationally resolved measurements of diatomic carbon (a
3
Π
u
→d
3
Π
g
(0,0) and (1,1)) at a repetition rate of 525 kHz and resolution of 7.3 pm over the range of 511.1–514.1 nm. The diagnostic utilizes a high-power pulsed continuum laser light source dispersed in a spectrograph and imaged by a high-speed camera. Measurements have been performed that capture the temporal evolution of C
2
number density and temperature of a cloud of carbon black sublimating in shock heated gas at high temperature and pressure (T = 5500 K,
P
= 3.7 atm). A simultaneous light absorption measurement of the condensed phase enables comparisons of the gaseous C
2
number density to the condensed phase mass. The continuum laser absorption diagnostic is applied to C
2
in this work but shows promise in being a simple “drop-in” system for absorption spectroscopy in the visible range at rapid repetition rates and high dispersion, filling an important gap for laser diagnostic systems.
Journal Article
Volatility-dependent correlations: further evidence of when, where and how
This paper expands on the usefulness of conditioning correlations on market volatility to generate forecasts of the covariance matrix in two contexts: within a single market and between several international markets. The dynamic conditional correlation family provides an illustration of the relationship between volatility and correlation. We use a portfolio allocation problem to compare covariance forecasts over a range of portfolio sizes and sub-samples of high and low market volatility. Findings confirm recent results for these models in comparable examples and extend these results through the two comprehensive out-of-sample analyses including large dimensional and international settings. This study furthers our understanding of the linkage between volatility and correlations and provides guidance for exploiting correlation’s dependence on volatility, emphasising its importance for differing market states and portfolio characteristics.
Journal Article
Lyme myocarditis with third-degree heart block successfully treated with an early transition from IV ceftriaxone to oral doxycycline-case report
Background: Lyme disease is a common parasitic disease that can cause varied and potentially serious manifestations. The recommendations for treating some manifestations of Lyme are based on low-quality evidence, including for myocarditis. Treatment guidelines vary and are based on very low-quality evidence. IV ceftriaxone is typically recommended until the heart block resolves. Case Presentation: We report a case of a 31-year-old male admitted to our inpatient service with syncope and bradycardia. He was diagnosed with a third-degree heart block from Lyme disease. He was started on IV ceftriaxone, and his heart block improved. He had an ongoing second-degree atrioventricular block when he requested to be discharged on oral antibiotics rather than continuing IV ceftriaxone. Our patient received four doses of ceftriaxone before discharging from the hospital. He completed 2 weeks of oral doxycycline after discharge. In a follow-up phone call, he reported complete resolution of symptoms. Conclusion: This case supports the current Infectious Disease Society of America guideline of using intravenous ceftriaxone followed by oral doxycycline after the patient has improved. It also suggests that it may be safe to shorten the period of intravenous antibiotics and hospitalization. Shortening this period would reduce expenses and be more convenient for patients. More research is needed on the duration and preferred agent for treating the complications of Lyme.
Journal Article