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Aim: Less than 6% of the worlds described plant species have been assessed on the IUCN Red List, leaving many species invisible to conservation prioritization. Large-scale Red List assessment of plant species is a challenge, as most species' ranges have only been resolved to a coarse scale. As geographic distribution is a key assessment criterion on the IUCN Red List, we evaluate the use of coarse-scale distribution data in predictive models to assess the global scale and drivers of extinction risk in an economically important plant group, the bulbous monocotyledons. Location: Global. Methods: Using coarse-scale species distribution data, we train a machine learning model on biological and environmental variables for 148 species assessed on the IUCN Red List in order to identify correlates of extinction risk. We predict the extinction risk of 6439 'bulbous monocof' species with the best of 13 models and map our predictions to identify potential hotspots of threat. Results: Our model achieved 91% classification accuracy, with 88% of threatened species and 93% of non-threatened species accurately predicted. The model predicted 35% of bulbous monocots presently 'Not Evaluated' under IUCN criteria to be threatened and human impacts were a key correlate of threat. Spatial analysis identified some hotspots of threat where no bulbous monocots are yet on the IUCN Red List, for example central Chile. Main conclusions: This is the first time a machine learning model has been used to determine extinction risk at a global scale in a species-rich plant group. As coarse-scale distribution data exist for many plant groups, our methods can be replicated to provide extinction risk predictions across the plant kingdom. Our approach can be used as a low-cost prioritization tool for targeting fieldbased assessments.

Tulips (Tulipa spp.) are one of the most widely appreciated plants worldwide, nevertheless species taxonomy and biogeography are often poorly understood. Most wild tulips inhabit the mountains of Central Asia, a recognised biodiversity hotspot, and a centre of tulip diversity. Despite the presence of several country-level endemic Tulipa species, most taxa span the borders of several nations. With no globally Red Listed tulip taxa from this region national level conservation assessments are an important resource. Nonetheless, threats posed to tulips are still inadequately understood, especially climate change, and given the trans-national nature of most species, distributional information is restricted and often misleading. Here we collate 330 species records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with 85 newly collected records, to undertake species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) for ten native Central Asian species. This work showed that regional level models provide a much more comprehensive understanding of species’ extinction risks, proportions of habitat in different countries, and limitations in protected area coverage. Furthermore, our climate modelling, the first of its kind for tulips, suggests that climate change will have a significant negative impact on the range size of all species; including those that are currently widespread. We therefore add climate change to the list of threats affecting tulip populations in Central Asia, which already includes livestock overgrazing, urbanisation, wild collection, and mining. Overall, our work shows that although national information is important, a regional approach is crucial not just for tulip conservation efforts, but likely for Central Asian plant conservation in general.

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

The Caribbean archipelago is a global biodiversity hotspot, with high levels of endemism and a threatened flora. The British Virgin Islands and the US Virgin Islands, two archipelagos situated in the Caribbean Sea are no exception. Despite many decades of floristic investigation, continuing botanical surveys across the region are uncovering previously unrecorded plant populations and improving our understanding of the geographic ranges of locally restricted threatened flora. This study aims to re-evaluate the latest conservation status of Eugenia stirpiflora by examining its current spatial distribution, population numbers, main threats and conservation actions needed to ensure the species' long term survival. Thought to be endemic to the island of St. John in the US Virgin Islands (USVI), E. stirpiflora (Myrtaceae), was discovered on the island of Virgin Gorda in the British Virgin Islands (BVI) in 2020, extending its geographic range to a new territory. Despite this wider distribution, the species' extent of occurrence (20 km 2 ) and area of occupancy (12 km 2 ) are still highly restricted. On St. John (USVI), this species is recorded from Europa Bay, including the White Cliffs area, Minna Hill and Upper John's Folly. On Virgin Gorda, the species is only known from Fanny Hill, north of Gorda Peak. The total number of mature individuals ranges between 1,535 and 1,665, with the species' largest population occurring on Europa Bay (St. John) with a number of mature individuals between 1,500 and 1,630. On the island of Virgin Gorda, the species' habitat is declining due to expansion of urban development and uncontrolled grazing by feral ungulates. On St. John, the suitable habitat and the number of individuals are declining due to grazing by free-roaming livestock and feral ungulates, illegal trail clearing and insect pests. Based on these threats, two locations were recognised. Simultaneously, prolonged periods of drought, caused by climate change, are affecting both locations uniformly. This species, previously evaluated on the IUCN Red List as Critically Endangered (CR) under its synonym, Eugenia earhartii , is here re-evaluated as Endangered (EN), based on Criteria B1ab(iii,v)+2ab(iii,v); C2a(ii) according to the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria.

The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will probably include a goal to stabilize and restore the status of species. Its delivery would be facilitated by making the actions required to halt and reverse species loss spatially explicit. Here, we develop a species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric that is scalable across species, threats and geographies. STAR quantifies the contributions that abating threats and restoring habitats in specific places offer towards reducing extinction risk. While every nation can contribute towards halting biodiversity loss, Indonesia, Colombia, Mexico, Madagascar and Brazil combined have stewardship over 31% of total STAR values for terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals. Among actions, sustainable crop production and forestry dominate, contributing 41% of total STAR values for these taxonomic groups. Key Biodiversity Areas cover 9% of the terrestrial surface but capture 47% of STAR values. STAR could support governmental and non-state actors in quantifying their contributions to meeting science-based species targets within the framework. The species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric quantifies the contributions that abating threats and restoring habitats offer towards reducing species’ extinction risk in specific places.

The British Virgin Islands and the US Virgin Islands, two island groups located in the Caribbean archipelago, hold unique plant diversity and high endemism. Until recently, Solanum conocarpum was considered a rare plant species endemic to the island of St. John in the US Virgin Islands. Ongoing botanical surveys in this region are revealing new populations and refining our understanding of the distribution of these narrow endemic plant species. The objective of this paper is to assess the conservation status of S. conocarpum , including a review of its geographic range, population numbers, threats and conservation actions needed for its long-term survival. In this paper, we present new occurrences for S. conocarpum , extending its geographic range to a new island, Tortola and new territory, the British Virgin Islands. Despite this range expansion, this species is evaluated as Endangered (EN), based on Criteria B1b(iii,v)+2b(iii,v)+C2a(i), according to the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. The extent of occurrence (EOO = 46 km 2 ) and area of occupancy (AOO = 20 km 2 ) are highly restricted. On St. John (US Virgin Islands), the historically recorded individuals at Reef Bay, Europa Ridge and Sabbat Point are now considered extirpated due to disturbance from development compounded by invasive species, as well as the impact of feral ungulates and drought stress. These threats are impacting the species across the whole island of St. John and contributing to a continuing decline of suitable habitat, despite the island being a National Park. On the island of Tortola, the species occurs on unprotected lands subject to development and habitat modification and decline by feral ungulates. Based on these threats acting separately across the two islands, two locations were defined. The estimated total number of mature individuals ranges between 150 and 250, with the largest subpopulation at Nanny Point in the US Virgin Islands, containing 108 mature individuals. Conservation action, focused on protecting this species' habitat, is urgently needed.

Societal Impact Statement In some indigenous languages, plants are referred to as ‘those who care for us’, reflecting their essential role in tackling global challenges. Yet, urbanisation and other factors have reduced engagement with plants and botany, decreasing awareness, especially among students. To combat this, three botanists launched the Botanical University Challenge (BUC) to inspire plant‐aware students in the United Kingdom and Ireland. We show how, through competition, BUC fosters a community of budding botanists, equips students with skills to tackle environmental issues and bridges fragmented interest in plants. Its success has sparked similar contests internationally, showcasing BUC's broad appeal and potential to elevate botany globally. Summary The Botanical University Challenge (BUC) competition was first devised by three academic botanists in 2015 to champion plants and plant‐aware students and to help connect disparate and disconnected student botanists across the United Kingdom and Ireland. Since then, BUC has grown in popularity to become the largest annual botanical contest in Europe (and possibly the world) with teams competing from a total of 33 higher education institutions from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland answering questions on the full breadth of the botanical sciences. Through running the competition and (since 2023) an associated Student Botany Festival, the BUC Planning Team has had the opportunity to engage with a diverse cohort of plant‐aware students, from undergraduate to doctoral level, enabling them to share their values, passions and concerns for the future. We discuss the development of BUC and our ambitions concerning the future growth and impact of the BUC competition and the ways in which BUC has supported plant‐aware students, such as skills training and career pathway development. We also present two international case studies where the BUC format has been used to facilitate student education and engagement in other countries. We envision BUC as a vehicle to enable connections between plant‐aware students, not only nationally within the United Kingdom but internationally, by encouraging and supporting other communities in similar endeavours. In some indigenous languages, plants are referred to as “those who care for us,” reflecting their essential role in tackling global challenges. Yet, urbanisation has reduced engagement with plants and botany, decreasing awareness, especially among students. To combat this, three botanists launched the Botanical University Challenge (BUC) to inspire plant‐aware students in the UK and Ireland. We show how, through competition, BUC fosters a community of budding botanists, equips students with skills to tackle environmental issues, and bridges fragmented interest in plants. Its success has sparked similar contests internationally, showcasing BUC's broad appeal and potential to elevate botany globally.

Oceanic islands are particularly vulnerable to the global decline of biological diversity, suffering disproportionally large losses of endemic species. A primary tool for mitigating species loss is the establishment of protected area networks. The 2030 Global Biodiversity Framework target calls for the protection of 30% of Earth’s land surface by 2030. This study identifies areas within the Tropical Important Plant Areas network of the British Virgin Islands (BVI), to better inform the expansion of the current protected area network with the objective of conserving the BVI’s unique flora. We identified and applied conservation targets for five threatened habitats and 34 species of conservation concern, including four endemic to the BVI. A total of 5,248 georeferenced plant records for the 34 species collected through decades of collaborative work between the National Parks Trust of the Virgin Islands and the Royal Botanical Gardens, Kew, along with the distribution of five threatened habitats were used within the decision support system MARXAN to identify four spatial portfolios to guide the expansion of the BVI’s current protected area network. Highlighting the need to expand the current (2007–2017) Protected Areas System Plan in the BVI, we found that the current Plan only covers 15% of terrestrial land and does not meet the conservation targets for plants and habitats. The portfolios identified in our analysis efficiently expand the current Protected Areas System Plan to strategically expand coverage for all conservation features, with two main portfolios reaching all defined conservation targets for protection. Notably, to evaluate options not requiring land purchase, we extracted areas within state-owned Crown land from two main identified portfolios and found that the two Crown land-portfolios could protect 28% and 23% of the BVI, respectively, while meeting the targets for most plants of conservation concern. However, to reach 30% land protection and meet the conservation targets for all plant species, including endemics, private land would need to be considered for this inclusion within the protected area network. Our results provide science-based guidance for the selection of candidate protected area expansion sites that include threatened plants and habitats for reaching the 2030 Biodiversity Framework targets. While systematic conservation planning can provide guidance on protected area expansion, it is important to evaluate and prioritise conservation actions, based on multiple solutions and available resources. We recommend similar approaches are applied more broadly throughout the Caribbean and other archipelagos across the world.

The global loss of biodiversity is a pressing and urgent issue and halting loss is the focus of many international agreements and targets. However, data on species distribution, threats and protection are limited and sometimes lacking in many parts of the world. The British Virgin Islands (BVI), part of the Puerto Rican Bank Floristic Region in the Caribbean Biodiversity Hotspot, is rich in plant diversity and regional endemism. Despite the established network of National Parks in the BVI and decades of botanical data from international collaboration between the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew and the National Parks Trust of the Virgin Islands, there was a need for consolidated data on species distribution across the archipelago and national lists for threatened and rare plants of conservation concern. The process of identifying the network of 18 Tropical Important Plant Areas (TIPAs) in the BVI, completed in 2018, delivered national lists and accurate data for all 35 Species of Conservation Concern. These data (3688 georeferenced records) are analysed here to reveal species distribution across the archipelago, within the TIPAs network and the National Parks System. The TIPAs network contained all 35 Species of Conservation Concern and 91% of all the records, as expected. Ten out of the 21 National Parks had one or more of the species present. Most species occur across the archipelago, while some are restricted range and/or endemics. These new data will help management of plant conservation efforts and resources in the BVI, contributing to the revision of the Protected Areas System Plan and local environmental policies and have relevance to the wider Caribbean Region.