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The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%.

A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor glacier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 ± 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 ± 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006–2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 %. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 % of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission scenario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify additional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of ±84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection.

Ice loss and raised sea levels The Canadian Arctic Archipelago contains one-third of the global volume of land ice outside the ice sheets, but its contribution to sea-level change is largely unknown. Gardner et al . use three independent techniques to reveal that mass loss from the archipelago was 92 ±12 gigatonnes per year in 2007–09, about three times greater than in 2004–06, and coincident with warmer summer temperatures. The record is too short to allow a firm conclusion on longer-term trends, but it is clear that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is a significant contributor to sea-level rise. Mountain glaciers and ice caps are contributing significantly to present rates of sea level rise and will continue to do so over the next century and beyond 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . The Canadian Arctic Archipelago, located off the northwestern shore of Greenland, contains one-third of the global volume of land ice outside the ice sheets 6 , but its contribution to sea-level change remains largely unknown. Here we show that the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has recently lost 61 ± 7 gigatonnes per year (Gt yr −1 ) of ice, contributing 0.17 ± 0.02 mm yr −1 to sea-level rise. Our estimates are of regional mass changes for the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago referring to the years 2004 to 2009 and are based on three independent approaches: surface mass-budget modelling plus an estimate of ice discharge (SMB+ D ), repeat satellite laser altimetry (ICESat) and repeat satellite gravimetry (GRACE). All three approaches show consistent and large mass-loss estimates. Between the periods 2004–2006 and 2007–2009, the rate of mass loss sharply increased from 31 ± 8 Gt yr −1 to 92 ± 12 Gt yr −1 in direct response to warmer summer temperatures, to which rates of ice loss are highly sensitive (64 ± 14 Gt yr −1 per 1 K increase). The duration of the study is too short to establish a long-term trend, but for 2007–2009, the increase in the rate of mass loss makes the Canadian Arctic Archipelago the single largest contributor to eustatic sea-level rise outside Greenland and Antarctica.

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world's oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003-2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was -259 ± 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 ± 13% of the observed sea level rise.

We review the sea‐level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea‐level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity. Key Points The sea level budget is closed from 1972 Oceans are continuing to warm and sea level toi rise Aerosol loading has increased since 2000

Glacier area changes on the Tibetan Plateau were studied in different drainage basins based on Landsat satellite images from three epochs: 263 in the mid-1970s, 150 in 1999–2002 and 148 in 2013/14. Three mosaics (M1976, M2001 and M2013) with minimal cloud and snow cover were constructed, and the uncertainty due to each epoch having a finite span was accounted for. Glacier outlines (TPG1976, TPG2001 and TPG2013) were digitized manually with guidance from the SRTM DEM v4.1 and Google Earth imagery. To achieve complete multi-temporal coverage in a reasonable time, only debris-free ice was delineated. Area mapping uncertainty was evaluated at three study sites, Mount Qomolangma (Everest), Mount Naimona'Nyi, Mount Geladandong, where the largest differences between present and earlier measurements were within ~±4%. Area differences with previous inventories ranged from −19.6% (TPG1976 minus the first Chinese Glacier Inventory) to −3.6% and −1.1% (TPG2013 and TPG2001, respectively minus the second Chinese Glacier Inventory), while the difference TPG2001 minus the GAMDAM Glacier Inventory was +10.4%. Glacier area on the plateau decreased from 44 366 ± 2827 km2 (1.7% of the study area) in the 1970s to 42 210 ± 1621 km2 in 2001 and 41 137 ± 1616 km2 in 2013. Shrinkage was faster in external drainage basins of the southeast than in the interior basins of the northwest, from a maximum of −0.43% a−1 (−1.60% a−1 during 1994–2013) in the Mekong catchment down to a minimum of −0.12% a−1 in the Tarim interior drainage.

This study presents the first reanalysis of a long-term glacier mass-balance record in the Canadian Arctic. The reanalysis is accomplished through comparison of the 1960–2014 glaciological mass-balance record of White Glacier, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, with a geodetically derived mass change over the same period. The corrections applied to homogenize the two datasets, including adjusting for changes in hypsometry over the period of record and the generic differences between methods, are discussed along with the associated systematic and random errors of the two forms of mass-balance measurement. Statistical comparison of the two datasets reveals that within the error margin there is no significant difference between the average annual glaciological balance (–213 ± 28 mm w.e. a−1) and geodetic balance (–178 ± 16 mm w.e. a−1) at White Glacier over the 54 year record. The validity of this result, and the assumptions made in implementing the glaciological method, are critically assessed.