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Acute respiratory illness (ARI) is a leading cause of mortality in children under 5 (CU5) in Malawi and can be prevented with 3-dose pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV). There has been no national study in Malawi that seeks to associate social economic factors leading to PCV vaccine uptake and reported acute respiratory infections (RARI). The objectives of our study were to do this. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from the 2014 UNICEF Malawi Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to construct mutlivariable logistic regression models for independent associations with PCV 1/2/3 immunisation and RARI. 56% of CU5 in Malawi RARI in the 2 week recall period of the survey. Independent associations with reduced odds of RARI were central region living (OR 0.82, 95%CI (0.71-0.93)) middle (OR 0.84, (0.73-0.97)) fourth (OR 0.79, (0.68-0.92)) and richest wealth quintiles (OR 0.73, (0.60-0.88)). Using straw/shrubs for fuel was associated with increased RARI (OR 3.13, (1.00-9.79)). Among 1-36 month olds, in 2014, 93.3% received PCV1, 86.8% PCV2 and 77.0% PCV3. Between 2011-2014, the average age in months for a child to receive PCV1/2/3 reduced by 26.6 for PCV1, 26.4 for PCV2, and 26.1 for PCV 3. Independent predicators for increased odds of all 3 PCV doses, relative to 0-5 age group, were age group 6-11 (OR 21.8, (18.2-26.1) 12-23 (OR 27.5, (23.5-32.2) 24-36 months (OR 9.09, (7.89-10.5), mothers having a secondary (OR 1.52, (1.25-1.84)) or higher education (OR 2.68, (1.43-5.04) when compared to no education, and children in the middle (OR 1.24, (1.07-1.43)) fourth (OR 1.27, (1.09-1.48)) richest (OR 1.54, (1.27-1.88)) wealth quintiles relative to the lowest. Children living with 4-6 other children was independently associated with reduced odds of receiving all 3 PCV doses (OR 0.56, (0.33-0.96). We report nationally representative social economic associations with RARI and PCV vaccine uptake and coverage estimates. We found reductions in the average age a child receives all 3 PCV vaccine doses between 2011-2014.

The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multidisciplinary and international in nature, with strong collaboration between academic centres in Europe and China.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be “the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century”. The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process—from November, 2016 to early 2017—to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.

Maternal and neonatal mortality rates remain high in many low-income and middle-income countries. Different approaches for the improvement of birth outcomes have been used in community-based interventions, with heterogeneous effects on survival. We assessed the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action, compared with usual care, on birth outcomes in low-resource settings. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials undertaken in Bangladesh, India, Malawi, and Nepal in which the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action were assessed to identify population-level predictors of effect on maternal mortality, neonatal mortality, and stillbirths. We also reviewed the cost-effectiveness of the women's group intervention and estimated its potential effect at scale in Countdown countries. Seven trials (119 428 births) met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses of all trials showed that exposure to women's groups was associated with a 23% non-significant reduction in maternal mortality (odds ratio 0·77, 95% CI 0·48–1·23), a 20% reduction in neonatal mortality (0·80, 0·67–0·96), and a 7% non-significant reduction in stillbirths (0·93, 0·82–1·05), with high heterogeneity for maternal (I2=64·0%, p=0·011) and neonatal results (I2=73·2%, p=0·001). In the meta-regression analyses, the proportion of pregnant women in groups was linearly associated with reduction in both maternal and neonatal mortality (p=0·019 and p=0·009, respectively). A subgroup analysis of the four studies in which at least 30% of pregnant women participated in groups showed a 49% reduction in maternal mortality (0·51, 0·29–0·89) and a 33% reduction in neonatal mortality (0·67, 0·60–0·75). The intervention was cost effective by WHO standards and could save an estimated 283 000 newborn infants and 36 600 mothers per year if implemented in rural areas of 74 Countdown countries. With the participation of at least a third of pregnant women and adequate population coverage, women's groups practising participatory learning and action are a cost-effective strategy to improve maternal and neonatal survival in low-resource settings. Wellcome Trust, Ammalife, and National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for Birmingham and the Black Country programme.

Mathematical modelling is a commonly utilised tool to predict the impact of policy on health outcomes globally. Given the persistently high levels of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, mathematical modelling is a potentially valuable tool to guide strategic planning for health and improve outcomes. The aim of this scoping review was to explore the characteristics of mathematical models and modelling studies evaluating the impact of maternal and/or perinatal healthcare interventions or services on health-related outcomes in the region. A search across three databases was conducted on 2nd November 2023 which returned 8660 potentially relevant studies, from which 60 were included in the final review. Characteristics of these studies, the interventions which were evaluated, the models utilised, and the analyses conducted were extracted and summarised. Findings suggest that the popularity of modelling within this field is increasing over time with most studies published after 2015 and that population-based, deterministic, linear models were most frequently utilised, with the Lives Saved Tool being applied in over half of the reviewed studies (n = 34, 57%). Much less frequently (n = 6) models utilising system-thinking approaches, such as individual-based modelling or systems dynamics modelling, were developed and applied. Models were most applied to estimate the impact of interventions or services on maternal mortality (n = 34, 57%) or neonatal mortality outcomes (n = 39, 65%) with maternal morbidity (n = 4, 7%) and neonatal morbidity (n = 6, 10%) outcomes and stillbirth reported on much less often (n = 14, 23%). Going forward, given that healthcare delivery systems have long been identified as complex adaptive systems, modellers may consider the advantages of applying systems-thinking approaches to evaluate the impact of maternal and perinatal health policy. Such approaches allow for a more realistic and explicit representation of the systems- and individual- level factors which impact the effectiveness of interventions delivered within health systems.

Existing compartmental mathematical modelling methods for epidemics, such as SEIR models, cannot accurately represent effects of contact tracing. This makes them inappropriate for evaluating testing and contact tracing strategies to contain an outbreak. An alternative used in practice is the application of agent- or individual-based models (ABM). However ABMs are complex, less well-understood and much more computationally expensive. This paper presents a new method for accurately including the effects of Testing, contact-Tracing and Isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models. We derive our method using a careful probabilistic argument to show how contact tracing at the individual level is reflected in aggregate on the population level. We show that the resultant SEIR-TTI model accurately approximates the behaviour of a mechanistic agent-based model at far less computational cost. The computational efficiency is such that it can be easily and cheaply used for exploratory modelling to quantify the required levels of testing and tracing, alone and with other interventions, to assist adaptive planning for managing disease outbreaks.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and appropriate complementary feeding (CF) are important for child survival and development. While global guidelines provide clear definitions for these practices, interpretations within communities can differ, influencing infant feeding behaviours. This study explored how EBF and CF are understood, and how these understandings shape infant feeding and nutrition within a community setting in Jigawa State, northern Nigeria. We conducted a qualitative study using life-history interviews and household observations within an ethnographic process evaluation in Kiyawa LGA, Jigawa State, Nigeria, between July 2020 and November 2022. The data formed part of the INSPIRING Jigawa cluster randomized controlled trial process evaluation. From 90 women recruited for the ethnography, we purposively selected 36 women aged 16–49 years who had breastfed in the preceding two years. Data was analysed from midline interviews and notes from monthly facility and household observations. Interviews were conducted in Hausa, transcribed, translated into English, and analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. We found that while most mothers could state the correct definition of EBF as feeding only breastmilk for the first six months, their interpretation allowed for the early introduction of water, and other water solutions without perceiving this as a breach of EBF. Complementary feeding was similarly defined based on infant cues and cultural beliefs, with many mothers introducing family foods before six months in response to perceived signs of hunger or under the influence of older family members. These locally adapted definitions reflected deep-rooted cultural norms and caregiving traditions. While communities in Jigawa are aware of global definitions for EBF, these are not commonly adopted or practiced. Interventions aiming to improve infant feeding practices must consider culturally embedded beliefs around the provision of water earlier than recommended, and engage influential family and community members to align local practices with recommended guidelines.

The mortality impact of pulse oximetry use during infant and childhood pneumonia management at the primary healthcare level in low-income countries is unknown. We sought to determine mortality outcomes of infants and children diagnosed and referred using clinical guidelines with or without pulse oximetry in Malawi. We conducted a data linkage study of prospective health facility and community case and mortality data. We matched prospectively collected community health worker (CHW) and health centre (HC) outpatient data to prospectively collected hospital and community-based mortality surveillance outcome data, including episodes followed up to and deaths within 30 days of pneumonia diagnosis amongst children 0-59 months old. All data were collected in Lilongwe and Mchinji districts, Malawi, from January 2012 to June 2014. We determined differences in mortality rates using <90% and <93% oxygen saturation (SpO2) thresholds and World Health Organization (WHO) and Malawi clinical guidelines for referral. We used unadjusted and adjusted (for age, sex, respiratory rate, and, in analyses of HC data only, Weight for Age Z-score [WAZ]) regression to account for interaction between SpO2 threshold (pulse oximetry) and clinical guidelines, clustering by child, and CHW or HC catchment area. We matched CHW and HC outpatient data to hospital inpatient records to explore roles of pulse oximetry and clinical guidelines on hospital attendance after referral. From 7,358 CHW and 6,546 HC pneumonia episodes, we linked 417 CHW and 695 HC pneumonia episodes to 30-day mortality outcomes: 16 (3.8%) CHW and 13 (1.9%) HC patients died. SpO2 thresholds of <90% and <93% identified 1 (6%) of the 16 CHW deaths that were unidentified by integrated community case management (iCCM) WHO referral protocol and 3 (23%) and 4 (31%) of the 13 HC deaths, respectively, that were unidentified by the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) WHO protocol. Malawi IMCI referral protocol, which differs from WHO protocol at the HC level and includes chest indrawing, identified all but one of these deaths. SpO2 < 90% predicted death independently of WHO danger signs compared with SpO2 ≥ 90%: HC Risk Ratio (RR), 9.37 (95% CI: 2.17-40.4, p = 0.003); CHW RR, 6.85 (1.15-40.9, p = 0.035). SpO2 < 93% was also predictive versus SpO2 ≥ 93% at HC level: RR, 6.68 (1.52-29.4, p = 0.012). Hospital referrals and outpatient episodes with referral decision indications were associated with mortality. A substantial proportion of those referred were not found admitted in the inpatients within 7 days of referral advice. All 12 deaths in 73 hospitalised children occurred within 24 hours of arrival in the hospital, which highlights delay in appropriate care seeking. The main limitation of our study was our ability to only match 6% of CHW episodes and 11% of HC episodes to mortality outcome data. Pulse oximetry identified fatal pneumonia episodes at HCs in Malawi that would otherwise have been missed by WHO referral guidelines alone. Our findings suggest that pulse oximetry could be beneficial in supplementing clinical signs to identify children with pneumonia at high risk of mortality in the outpatient setting in health centres for referral to a hospital for appropriate management.

In 2016, the WHO published recommendations increasing the number of recommended antenatal care (ANC) visits per pregnancy from four to eight. Prior to the implementation of this policy, coverage of four ANC visits has been suboptimal in many low-income settings. In this study we explore socio-demographic factors associated with early initiation of first ANC contact and attending at least four ANC visits (\"ANC4+\") in Malawi using the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) data collected between 2004 and 2016, prior to the implementation of new recommendations. We combined data from the 2004-5, 2010 and 2015-16 MDHS using Stata version 16. Participants included all women surveyed between the ages of 15-49 who had given birth in the five years preceding the survey. We conducted weighted univariate, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis of the effects of each of the predictor variables on the binary endpoint of the woman attending at least four ANC visits and having the first ANC attendance within or before the four months of pregnancy (ANC4+). To determine whether a factor was included in the model, the likelihood ratio test was used with a statistical significance of P< 0.05 as the threshold. We evaluated data collected in surveys in 2004/5, 2010 and 2015/6 from 26386 women who had given birth in the five years before being surveyed. The median gestational age, in months, at the time of presenting for the first ANC visit was 5 (inter quartile range: 4-6). The proportion of women initiating ANC4+ increased from 21.3% in 2004-5 to 38.8% in 2015-16. From multivariate analysis, there was increasing trend in ANC4+ from women aged 20-24 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.27, 95%CI:1.05-1.53, P = 0.01) to women aged 45-49 years (aOR = 1.91, 95%CI:1.18-3.09, P = 0.008) compared to those aged 15-19 years. Women from richest socio-economic position ((aOR = 1.32, 95%CI:1.12-1.58, P<0.001) were more likely to demonstrate ANC4+ than those from low socio-economic position. Additionally, women who had completed secondary (aOR = 1.24, 95%CI:1.02-1.51, P = 0.03) and tertiary (aOR = 2.64, 95%CI:1.65-4.22, P<0.001) education were more likely to report having ANC4+ than those with no formal education. Conversely increasing parity was associated with a reduction in likelihood of ANC4+ with women who had previously delivered 2-3 (aOR = 0.74, 95%CI:0.63-0.86, P<0.001), 4-5 (aOR = 0.65, 95%CI:0.53-0.80, P<0.001) or greater than 6 (aOR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.47-0.79, <0.001) children being less likely to demonstrate ANC4+. The proportion of women reporting ANC4+ and of key ANC interventions in Malawi have increased significantly since 2004. However, we found that most women did not access the recommended number of ANC visits in Malawi, prior to the 2016 WHO policy change which may mean that women are less likely to undertake the 2016 WHO recommendation of 8 contacts per pregnancy. Additionally, our results highlighted significant variation in coverage according to key socio-demographic variables which should be considered when devising national strategies to ensure that all women access the appropriate frequency of ANC visits during their pregnancy.