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Long paleoecological records are critical for understanding evolutionary responses to environmental forcing and unparalleled tools for elucidating the mechanisms that lead to the development of regions of high biodiversity. We use a 1.2-My record from Lake Malawi, a textbook example of biological diversification, to document how climate and tectonics have driven ecosystem and evolutionary dynamics. Before ∼800 ka, Lake Malawi was much shallower than today, with higher frequency but much lower amplitude waterlevel and oxygenation changes. Since ∼800 ka, the lake has experienced much larger environmental fluctuations, best explained by a punctuated, tectonically driven rise in its outlet location and level. Following the reorganization of the basin, a change in the pacing of hydroclimate variability associated with the Mid-Pleistocene Transition resulted in hydrologic change dominated by precession rather than the high-latitude teleconnections recorded elsewhere. During this time, extended, deep lake phases have abruptly alternated with times of extreme aridity and ecosystem variability. Repeated crossings of hydroclimatic thresholds within the lake system were critical for establishing the rhythm of diversification, hybridization, and extinction that dominate the modern system. The chronology of these changes closely matches both the timing and pattern of phylogenetic history inferred independently for the lake’s extraordinary array of cichlid fish species, suggesting a direct link between environmental and evolutionary dynamics.

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between B1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between B1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) in seawater reflect the combined influences of ocean circulation and atmospheric moisture balance. However, it is difficult to disentangle disparate ocean and atmosphere influences on modern seawater δ18O values, partly because continuous time series of seawater δ18O are rare. Here we present a nearly nine‐year, continuous record of seawater δ18O values from the Galápagos. Seawater δ18O values faithfully track sea surface salinity and salinity along the equator at 50 m depth. Zonal current velocity within the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), directly west of the Galápagos, is strongly correlated with Galápagos surface seawater δ18O values with a 1‐month lag. Reconstructions of Galápagos seawater δ18O values could thus provide a window into past variations in the strength of the EUC, an important influence on large‐scale tropical Pacific climate. Plain Language Summary The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) flows beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean from west to east, transporting cold, salty, nutrient rich waters. When this current hits the Galápagos, it rises to the surface. Its high nutrient levels serve as the foundation for the diverse Galápagos ecosystem and its colder temperature helps set up a strong sea surface temperature gradient that is the foundation of the tropical Pacific climate system. Despite its importance, little is known about how this current has varied prior to the short period of instrumental observations, and it remains challenging to reproduce in climate models. Here we show how Galápagos seawater stable isotope values track the strength of the EUC. Our findings open up possibilities to extend the record of the EUC back in time with isotope‐based paleoclimate proxies from the Galápagos region. Key Points Galápagos seawater δ18O values strongly covary with equatorial cold tongue salinity values Seawater δ18O values are higher with a stronger Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent west of Galápagos

Coral records from a range of sites extend the index of the Indian Ocean Dipole back to 1846. Indian Ocean Dipole events increased in strength and frequency in the twentieth century, coincident with the development of direct feedbacks with the Asian Monsoon. The interplay of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Asian monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) 1 , 2 , 3 drives climatic extremes in and around the Indian Ocean. Historical 4 , 5 and proxy 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 records reveal changes in the behaviour of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Asian monsoon over recent decades 10 , 11 , 12 . However, reliable instrumental records of the IOD cover only the past 50 years 1 , 3 , and there is no consensus on long-term variability of the IOD or its possible response to greenhouse gas forcing 13 . Here we use a suite of coral oxygen-isotope records to reconstruct a basin-wide index of IOD behaviour since AD  1846. Our record reveals an increase in the frequency and strength of IOD events during the twentieth century, which is associated with enhanced seasonal upwelling in the eastern Indian Ocean. Although the El Niño Southern Oscillation has historically influenced the variability of both the IOD and the Asian monsoon 3 , 8 , 10 , we find that the recent intensification of the IOD coincides with the development of direct, positive IOD–monsoon feedbacks. We suggest that projected greenhouse warming may lead to a redistribution of rainfall across the Indian Ocean and a growing interdependence between the IOD and Asian monsoon precipitation variability.

Floods and droughts are hydrological extremes that impact ecosystems, agriculture, and human well-being. These extremes are expected to intensify in a warmer world, although many regions lack the observations needed to place current trends in the context of long-term variability. Here we present a new multi-century record of tropical rainfall based on a multi-proxy approach from northern Great Barrier Reef coral. The robust calibration with instrumental rainfall allows us to quantitatively estimate summer rainfall in northern Queensland back to 1746 CE. We find that as global climate warmed, wet-season rainfall in this region has increased by ~10% since 1750 and the standard deviation (21-yr 1-σ) of wet-season rainfall more than doubled, as rainy years became much wetter, while dry years remained dry. Reconstructed rainfall correlates with El Niño indices and the link to Pacific temperature variability has strengthened as climate warmed, consistent with expected intensification of La Niña-related rainfall.

Global temperatures rose quickly between 1910 and 1940. A reconstruction based on corals suggests that the Pacific trade winds were weak during this period of rapid warming, but strengthened as warming slowed in the following decades. Of the rise in global atmospheric temperature over the past century, nearly 30% occurred between 1910 and 1940 when anthropogenic forcings were relatively weak 1 . This early warming has been attributed to internal factors, such as natural climate variability in the Atlantic region, and external factors, such as solar variability and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the warming is too large to be explained by external factors alone and it precedes Atlantic warming by over a decade. For the late twentieth century, observations and climate model simulations suggest that Pacific trade winds can modulate global temperatures 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , but instrumental data are scarce in the early twentieth century. Here we present a westerly wind reconstruction (1894–1982) from seasonally resolved measurements of Mn/Ca ratios in a western Pacific coral that tracks interannual to multidecadal Pacific climate variability. We then reconstruct central Pacific temperatures using Sr/Ca ratios in a coral from Jarvis Island, and find that weak trade winds and warm temperatures coincide with rapid global warming from 1910 to 1940. In contrast, winds are stronger and temperatures cooler between 1940 and 1970, when global temperature rise slowed down. We suggest that variations in Pacific wind strength at decadal timescales significantly influence the rate of surface air temperature change.

Exposure-based psychotherapies for the treatment of anxiety- and fear-based disorders rely on \"corrective\" associative learning. Namely the repeated confrontation with feared stimuli in the absence of negative outcomes allows the formation of new, corrected associations of safety, indicating that such stimuli no longer need to be avoided. Unfortunately, exposure-facilitated corrective learning tends to be bound by context and often poorly generalizes. One brain structure, the prefrontal cortex, is implicated in context-guided behavior and may be a relevant target for improving generalization of safety learning. Here, we tested whether inhibition of the left prefrontal cortex causally impaired updating of context-bound associations specifically or, alternatively, impaired updating of learned associations irrespective of contextual changes. Additionally, we tested whether prefrontal inhibition during corrective learning influenced subsequent generalization of associations to a novel context. In two separate experiments, participants received either 10 min of 2 mA cathodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over EEG coordinate F3 (Experiment 1 = 9, Experiment 2 = 22) or sham stimulation (Experiment 1 = 10, Experiment 2 = 22) while previously learned associations were reversed in the same or a different context from initial learning. Next, to assess generalization of learning, participants were asked to indicate which of the previously seen images they preferred in a novel, never seen before context. Results indicate that tDCS significantly impaired reversal irrespective of context in Experiment 2 only. When taking learning rate across trials into account, both experiments suggest that participants who received sham had the greatest learning rate when reversal occurred in a different context, as expected, whereas participants who received active tDCS in this condition had the lowest learning rate. However, active tDCS was associated with preferring the originally disadvantageous, but then neural stimulus after stimulus after reversal occurred in a different context in Experiment 1 only. These results support a causal role for the left prefrontal cortex in the updating of avoidance-based associations and encourage further inquiry investigating the use of non-invasive brain stimulation on flexible updating of learned associations.

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean influences climate across much of the planet. A diatom-based record of sea surface temperatures from El Junco lake, Galapagos, reveals that the most recent half-century is the warmest 50-year period in the past 1,200 years. Through its intimate connection with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation system, climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean influences climate across much of the planet. But the history of temperature change in the tropical Pacific Ocean during recent millennia is poorly known: the available annually resolved records 1 , 2 are discontinuous and rarely span more than a few centuries. Longer records at coarser temporal resolution suggest that significant oceanographic changes, observed at multi-year to multi-century resolution, have had important effects on global climate 3 , 4 , 5 . Here we use a diatom record from El Junco Lake, Galápagos, to produce a calibrated, continuous record of sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean at subdecadal resolution, spanning the past 1,200 years. Our reconstruction reveals that the most recent 50 years are the warmest 50-year period within the record. Because our diatom-based sea surface temperature index resembles Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, we suggest that with continued anthropogenic warming, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean may continue to warm.

We have compiled 36 previously published palaeoclimate records to determine the timing and spatial pattern of century-scale abrupt changes in Asian monsoon precipitation since the last deglaciation. We identify abrupt events from (1) the interpretations of the authors of these records and (2) the more objective moving t-test calculation. Our results indicate that abrupt climatic changes occurred at ~11.5 cal. ka, 4.5–5.0 cal. ka and ad 1300. At the start of the Holocene (~11.5 cal. ka), Asian monsoon precipitation increased dramatically. This climatic change is synchronous with an abrupt warming in the North Atlantic. During the middle Holocene, there was a time of preferred and widespread weakening in monsoon strength (~4.5–5.0 cal. ka). This result contradicts previous notions of either a gradual trend towards drier conditions or a series of abrupt events that occurred in an unorganized fashion across space and time. The middle-Holocene abrupt event could have been synchronous with an abrupt cooling event in the North Atlantic, as well as a warming and intensification of internannual variability in the tropical Pacific. In contrast to previous periods, precipitation changes at ad 1300 have a heterogeneous spatial pattern. We find no conclusive evidence for a change in the Asian monsoon at ~8.2 cal. ka, as suggested by several previous studies. More high-resolution data may be needed to observe this short-lived event. Overall, our results attest to the potential for rapid and major shifts in Asian monsoon precipitation that may be triggered by variations in other components of the climatic system.

Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.