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We describe a framework for defining pilot and feasibility studies focusing on studies conducted in preparation for a randomised controlled trial. To develop the framework, we undertook a Delphi survey; ran an open meeting at a trial methodology conference; conducted a review of definitions outside the health research context; consulted experts at an international consensus meeting; and reviewed 27 empirical pilot or feasibility studies. We initially adopted mutually exclusive definitions of pilot and feasibility studies. However, some Delphi survey respondents and the majority of open meeting attendees disagreed with the idea of mutually exclusive definitions. Their viewpoint was supported by definitions outside the health research context, the use of the terms 'pilot' and 'feasibility' in the literature, and participants at the international consensus meeting. In our framework, pilot studies are a subset of feasibility studies, rather than the two being mutually exclusive. A feasibility study asks whether something can be done, should we proceed with it, and if so, how. A pilot study asks the same questions but also has a specific design feature: in a pilot study a future study, or part of a future study, is conducted on a smaller scale. We suggest that to facilitate their identification, these studies should be clearly identified using the terms 'feasibility' or 'pilot' as appropriate. This should include feasibility studies that are largely qualitative; we found these difficult to identify in electronic searches because researchers rarely used the term 'feasibility' in the title or abstract of such studies. Investigators should also report appropriate objectives and methods related to feasibility; and give clear confirmation that their study is in preparation for a future randomised controlled trial designed to assess the effect of an intervention.

Background Feasibility and pilot studies are essential components of planning or preparing for a larger randomized controlled trial (RCT). They are intended to provide useful information about the feasibility of the main RCT—with the goal of reducing uncertainty and thereby increasing the chance of successfully conducting the main RCT. However, research has shown that there are serious inadequacies in the reporting of pilot and feasibility studies. Reasons for this include a lack of explicit publication policies for pilot and feasibility studies in many journals, unclear definitions of what constitutes a pilot or feasibility RCT/study, and a lack of clarity in the objectives and methodological focus. All these suggest that there is an urgent need for new guidelines for reporting pilot and feasibility studies. Objectives The aim of this paper is to describe the methods and processes in our development of an extension to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) Statement for reporting pilot and feasibility RCTs, that are executed in preparation for a future, more definitive RCT. Methods/design There were five overlapping parts to the project: (i) the project launch —which involved establishing a working group and conducting a review of the literature; (ii) stakeholder engagement —which entailed consultation with the CONSORT group, journal editors and publishers, the clinical trials community, and funders; (iii) a Delphi process —used to assess the agreement of experts on initial definitions and to generate a reporting checklist for pilot RCTs, based on the 2010 CONSORT statement extension applicable to reporting pilot studies; (iv) a consensus meeting —to discuss, add, remove, or modify checklist items, with input from experts in the field; and (v) write-up and implementation— which included a guideline document which gives an explanation and elaboration (E&E) and which will provide advice for each item, together with examples of good reporting practice. This final part also included a plan for dissemination and publication of the guideline. Conclusions We anticipate that implementation of our guideline will improve the reporting completeness, transparency, and quality of pilot RCTs, and hence benefit several constituencies, including authors of journal manuscripts, funding agencies, educators, researchers, and end-users.

A crucial aspect of threshold-based extreme value analyses is the level at which the threshold is set. For a suitably high threshold asymptotic theory suggests that threshold excesses may be modelled by a generalized Pareto distribution. A common threshold diagnostic is a plot of estimates of the generalized Pareto shape parameter over a range of thresholds. The aim is to select the lowest threshold above which the estimates are judged to be approximately constant, taking into account sampling variability summarized by pointwise confidence intervals. This approach doesn’t test directly the hypothesis that the underlying shape parameter is constant above a given threshold, but requires the user subjectively to combine information from many dependent estimates and confidence intervals. We develop tests of this hypothesis based on a multiple-threshold penultimate model that generalizes a two-threshold model proposed recently. One variant uses only the model fits from the traditional parameter stability plot. This is particularly beneficial when many datasets are analysed and enables assessment of the properties of the test on simulated data. We assess and illustrate these tests on river flow rate data and 72 series of significant wave heights.

Background Missing data are a potential source of bias, and their handling in the statistical analysis can have an important impact on both the likelihood and degree of such bias. Inadequate handling of the missing data may also result in invalid variance estimation. The handling of missing values is more complex in cluster randomised trials, but there are no reviews of practice in this field. Objectives A systematic review of published trials was conducted to examine how missing data are reported and handled in cluster randomised trials. Methods We systematically identified cluster randomised trials, published in English in 2011, using the National Library of Medicine (MEDLINE) via PubMed. Non-randomised and pilot/feasibility trials were excluded, as were reports of secondary analyses, interim analyses, and economic evaluations and those where no data were at the individual level. We extracted information on missing data and the statistical methods used to deal with them from a random sample of the identified studies. Results We included 132 trials. There was evidence of missing data in 95 (72%). Only 32 trials reported handling missing data, 22 of them using a variety of single imputation techniques, 8 using multiple imputation without accommodating the clustering and 2 stating that their likelihood-based complete case analysis accounted for missing values because the data were assumed Missing-at-Random. Limitations The results presented in this study are based on a large random sample of cluster randomised trials published in 2011, identified in electronic searches and therefore possibly missing some trials, most likely of poorer quality. Also, our results are based on information in the main publication for each trial. These reports may omit some important information on the presence of, and reasons for, missing data and on the statistical methods used to handle them. Our extraction methods, based on published reports, could not distinguish between missing data in outcomes and missing data in covariates. This distinction may be important in determining the assumptions about the missing data mechanism necessary for complete case analyses to be valid. Conclusions Missing data are present in the majority of cluster randomised trials. However, they are poorly reported, and most authors give little consideration to the assumptions under which their analysis will be valid. The majority of the methods currently used are valid under very strong assumptions about the missing data, whose plausibility is rarely discussed in the corresponding reports. This may have important consequences for the validity of inferences in some trials. Methods which result in valid inferences under general Missing-at-Random assumptions are available and should be made more accessible.

Background The clinical assessment of patients with chest pain of recent onset remains difficult. This study presents a critical review of clinical predictive tools for the assessment of patients with chest pain. Methods Systematic review of observational studies and estimation of probabilities of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with chest pain. Searches were conducted in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify studies reporting tools, with at least three variables from clinical history, physical examination or ECG, produced with multivariate analysis, to estimate probabilities of CAD in patients with chest pain of recent onset, published from inception of the database to the 31 st July 2015. The references of previous relevant reviews were hand searched. The methodological quality was assessed with standard criteria. Since the incidence of CAD has changed in the past few decades, the date of publication was acknowledged to be relevant in order to use the tool in clinical practice, and more recent papers were considered more relevant. Probabilities of CAD according to the studies of highest quality were estimated and the evidence provided was graded. Results Twelve papers were included out of the 19126 references initially identified. The methodological quality of all of them was high. The clinical characteristics of the chest pain, age, past medical history of cardiovascular disease, gender, and abnormalities in the ECG were the predictors of CAD most commonly reported across the studies. The most recent papers, with highest methodological quality, and most practical for use in clinical settings, reported prediction or exclusion of CAD with area under the curve 0.90 in Primary Care, 0.91 in Emergency department, and 0.79 in Cardiology. These papers provide evidence of high level (1B) and the recommendation to use their results in the management of patients with chest pain is strong (A). Conclusions The risk of CAD can be estimated on clinical grounds in patients with chest pain in different clinical settings with high accuracy. The estimation of probabilities of CAD presented in these studies could be used for a better management of patients with chest pain and also in the development of future predictive tools.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s40814-016-0065-z.].

This study used global metabolomics to identify metabolic factors that might contribute to muscle anabolic resistance, which develops when aerobic exercise is initiated with low muscle glycogen using global metabolomics. Eleven men completed this randomized, crossover study, completing two cycle ergometry glycogen depletion trials, followed by 24 h of isocaloric refeeding to elicit low (LOW; 1.5 g/kg carbohydrate, 3.0 g/kg fat) or adequate (AD; 6.0 g/kg carbohydrate 1.0 g/kg fat) glycogen. Participants then performed 80 min of cycling (64 ± 3% VO2 peak) while ingesting 146 g carbohydrate. Serum was collected before glycogen depletion under resting and fasted conditions (BASELINE), and before (PRE) and after (POST) exercise. Changes in metabolite profiles were calculated by subtracting BASELINE from PRE and POST within LOW and AD. There were greater increases (p < 0.05, Q < 0.10) in 64% of branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) metabolites and 69% of acyl-carnitine metabolites in LOW compared to AD. Urea and 3-methylhistidine had greater increases (p < 0.05, Q < 0.10) in LOW compared to AD. Changes in metabolomics profiles indicate a greater reliance on BCAA catabolism for substrate oxidation when exercise is initiated with low glycogen stores. These findings provide a mechanistic explanation for anabolic resistance associated with low muscle glycogen, and suggest that exogenous BCAA requirements to optimize muscle recovery are likely greater than current recommendations.

Tamoxifen preserves bone in postmenopausal women, but non-steroidal aromatase inhibitors accelerate bone loss and increase fracture risk. We aimed to study the effect on bone health in a subgroup of women included in the Intergroup Exemestane Study (IES), a large randomised trial that compared the switch to the steroidal aromatase inhibitor exemestane with continuation of tamoxifen in the adjuvant treatment of postmenopausal breast cancer. Results were analysed from 206 evaluable patients from the IES, in which postmenopausal women with histologically confirmed and completely resected unilateral breast cancer (that was oestrogen-receptor positive or of unknown status), who were disease-free after 2–3 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomised to continue oral tamoxifen 20 mg/day or switch to oral exemestane 25 mg/day to complete a total of 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. The primary endpoint was change in bone-mineral density (BMD) assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Changes in biochemical markers of bone turnover were also analysed in this substudy, and the incidence of fractures in the entire study reported. The IES is registered on the Current Controlled Trials website http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN11883920. Within 6 months of switching to exemestane, BMD was lowered by 0·051 g/cm 3 (2·7%; 95% CI 2·0–3·4; p<0·0001) at the lumbar spine and 0·025 g/cm 3 (1·4%; 0·8–1·9; p<0·0001) at the hip compared with baseline. BMD decreases were only 1·0% (0·4–1·7; p=0·002) and 0·8% (0·3–1·4; p=0·003) in year 2 at the lumbar spine and hip, respectively. No patient with BMD in the normal range at trial entry developed osteoporosis. Bone resorption and formation markers increased at all time points in women receiving exemestane (p<0·001). With a median follow-up in all IES participants (n=4274) of 58 months, 162 (7%) and 115 (5%) patients in the exemestane and tamoxifen groups, respectively, had fractures (odds ratio 1·45 [1·13–1·87]; p=0·003). These results indicate that the increase in survival shown previously with the IES switch strategy is achieved at the expense of some detriment to skeletal health, so the risk-benefit ratio to women needs to be individually assessed.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a neurotropic flavivirus recently linked to congenital ZIKV syndrome in children and encephalitis and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults. Neurotropic viruses often use axons to traffic to neuronal or glial cell somas where they either remain latent or replicate and proceed to infect new cells. Consequently, it has been suggested that axon degeneration could represent an evolutionarily conserved mechanism to limit viral spread. Whilst it is not known if ZIKV transits in axons, we previously reported that ZIKV infection of glial cells in a murine spinal cord-derived cell culture model of the CNS is associated with a profound loss of neuronal cell processes. This, despite that postmitotic neurons are relatively refractory to infection and death. Here, we tested the hypothesis that ZIKV-associated degeneration of neuronal processes is dependent on activation of Sterile alpha and armadillo motif-containing protein 1 (SARM1), an NADase that acts as a central executioner in a conserved axon degeneration pathway. To test this, we infected wild type and Sarm1 homozygous or heterozygous null cell cultures with ZIKV and examined NAD + levels as well as the survival of neurons and their processes. Unexpectedly, ZIKV infection led to a rapid SARM1-independent reduction in NAD + . Nonetheless, the subsequent profound loss of neuronal cell processes was SARM1-dependent and was preceded by early changes in the appearance of β-tubulin III staining. Together, these data identify a role for SARM1 in the pathogenesis of ZIKV infection, which may reflect SARM1's conserved prodegenerative function, independent of its NADase activity.

T cell immunological memory is established within days of an infection, but little is known about the in vivo changes in gene regulatory networks accounting for their ability to respond more efficiently to secondary infections. To decipher the timing and nature of immunological memory we performed genome-wide analyses of epigenetic and transcriptional changes in a mouse model generating antigen-specific T cells. Epigenetic reprogramming for Th differentiation and memory T cell formation was already established by the peak of the T cell response after 7 days. The Th memory T cell program was associated with a gain of open chromatin regions, enriched for RUNX, ETS and T-bet motifs, which remained stable for 56 days. The epigenetic programs for both effector memory, associated with T-bet, and central memory, associated with TCF-1, were established in parallel. Memory T cell-specific regulatory elements were associated with greatly enhanced inducible Th1-biased responses during secondary exposures to antigen. Furthermore, memory T cells responded in vivo to re-exposure to antigen by rapidly reprograming the entire ETS factor gene regulatory network, by suppressing Ets1 and activating Etv6 expression. These data show that gene regulatory networks are epigenetically reprogrammed towards memory during infection, and undergo substantial changes upon re-stimulation.