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Developing and validating subjective and objective risk-assessment measures for predicting mortality after major surgery: An international prospective cohort study
2020
Preoperative risk prediction is important for guiding clinical decision-making and resource allocation. Clinicians frequently rely solely on their own clinical judgement for risk prediction rather than objective measures. We aimed to compare the accuracy of freely available objective surgical risk tools with subjective clinical assessment in predicting 30-day mortality.
We conducted a prospective observational study in 274 hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, and New Zealand. For 1 week in 2017, prospective risk, surgical, and outcome data were collected on all adults aged 18 years and over undergoing surgery requiring at least a 1-night stay in hospital. Recruitment bias was avoided through an ethical waiver to patient consent; a mixture of rural, urban, district, and university hospitals participated. We compared subjective assessment with 3 previously published, open-access objective risk tools for predicting 30-day mortality: the Portsmouth-Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality (P-POSSUM), Surgical Risk Scale (SRS), and Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT). We then developed a logistic regression model combining subjective assessment and the best objective tool and compared its performance to each constituent method alone. We included 22,631 patients in the study: 52.8% were female, median age was 62 years (interquartile range [IQR] 46 to 73 years), median postoperative length of stay was 3 days (IQR 1 to 6), and inpatient 30-day mortality was 1.4%. Clinicians used subjective assessment alone in 88.7% of cases. All methods overpredicted risk, but visual inspection of plots showed the SORT to have the best calibration. The SORT demonstrated the best discrimination of the objective tools (SORT Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-0.92; P-POSSUM = 0.89, 95% CI 0.88-0.91; SRS = 0.85, 95% CI 0.82-0.87). Subjective assessment demonstrated good discrimination (AUROC = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86-0.91) that was not different from the SORT (p = 0.309). Combining subjective assessment and the SORT improved discrimination (bootstrap optimism-corrected AUROC = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.90-0.94) and demonstrated continuous Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.06-0.20, p < 0.001) compared with subjective assessment alone. Decision-curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the superiority of the SORT over other previously published models, and the SORT-clinical judgement model again performed best overall. Our study is limited by the low mortality rate, by the lack of blinding in the 'subjective' risk assessments, and because we only compared the performance of clinical risk scores as opposed to other prediction tools such as exercise testing or frailty assessment.
In this study, we observed that the combination of subjective assessment with a parsimonious risk model improved perioperative risk estimation. This may be of value in helping clinicians allocate finite resources such as critical care and to support patient involvement in clinical decision-making.
Journal Article
Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Pulmonary Hypertension: A Chicken-and-Egg Relationship
by
Peker, Yüksel
,
Balcan, Baran
,
The TURCOSACT Collaborators, The TURCOSACT Collaborators
in
Airway management
,
Allmänmedicin
,
Body mass index
2024
Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is characterized by repeated episodes of upper airway obstruction during sleep, and it is closely linked to several cardiovascular issues due to intermittent hypoxia, nocturnal hypoxemia, and disrupted sleep patterns. Pulmonary hypertension (PH), identified by elevated pulmonary arterial pressure, shares a complex interplay with OSA, contributing to cardiovascular complications and morbidity. The prevalence of OSA is alarmingly high, with studies indicating rates of 20–30% in males and 10–15% in females, escalating significantly with age and obesity. OSA’s impact on cardiovascular health is profound, particularly in exacerbating conditions like systemic hypertension and heart failure. The pivotal role of hypoxemia increases intrathoracic pressure, inflammation, and autonomic nervous system dysregulation in this interplay, which all contribute to PH’s pathogenesis. The prevalence of PH among OSA patients varies widely, with studies reporting rates from 15% to 80%, highlighting the variability in diagnostic criteria and methodologies. Conversely, OSA prevalence among PH patients also remains high, often exceeding 25%, stressing the need for careful screening and diagnosis. Treatment strategies like continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy show promise in mitigating PH progression in OSA patients. However, this review underscores the need for further research into long-term outcomes and the efficacy of these treatments. This review provides comprehensive insights into the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and treatment of the intricate interplay between OSA and PH, calling for integrated, personalized approaches in diagnosis and management. The future landscape of OSA and PH management hinges on continued research, technological advancements, and a holistic approach to improving patient outcomes.
Journal Article
A New Statistic to Evaluate Imputation Reliability
2010
As the amount of data from genome wide association studies grows dramatically, many interesting scientific questions require imputation to combine or expand datasets. However, there are two situations for which imputation has been problematic: (1) polymorphisms with low minor allele frequency (MAF), and (2) datasets where subjects are genotyped on different platforms. Traditional measures of imputation cannot effectively address these problems.
We introduce a new statistic, the imputation quality score (IQS). In order to differentiate between well-imputed and poorly-imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), IQS adjusts the concordance between imputed and genotyped SNPs for chance. We first evaluated IQS in relation to minor allele frequency. Using a sample of subjects genotyped on the Illumina 1 M array, we extracted those SNPs that were also on the Illumina 550 K array and imputed them to the full set of the 1 M SNPs. As expected, the average IQS value drops dramatically with a decrease in minor allele frequency, indicating that IQS appropriately adjusts for minor allele frequency. We then evaluated whether IQS can filter poorly-imputed SNPs in situations where cases and controls are genotyped on different platforms. Randomly dividing the data into \"cases\" and \"controls\", we extracted the Illumina 550 K SNPs from the cases and imputed the remaining Illumina 1 M SNPs. The initial Q-Q plot for the test of association between cases and controls was grossly distorted (lambda = 1.15) and had 4016 false positives, reflecting imputation error. After filtering out SNPs with IQS<0.9, the Q-Q plot was acceptable and there were no longer false positives. We then evaluated the robustness of IQS computed independently on the two halves of the data. In both European Americans and African Americans the correlation was >0.99 demonstrating that a database of IQS values from common imputations could be used as an effective filter to combine data genotyped on different platforms.
IQS effectively differentiates well-imputed and poorly-imputed SNPs. It is particularly useful for SNPs with low minor allele frequency and when datasets are genotyped on different platforms.
Journal Article
Maternal Mortality in India: Causes and Healthcare Service Use Based on a Nationally Representative Survey
2014
Data on cause-specific mortality, skilled birth attendance, and emergency obstetric care access are essential to plan maternity services. We present the distribution of India's 2001-2003 maternal mortality by cause and uptake of emergency obstetric care, in poorer and richer states.
The Registrar General of India surveyed all deaths occurring in 2001-2003 in 1.1 million nationally representative homes. Field staff interviewed household members about events that preceded the death. Two physicians independently assigned a cause of death. Narratives for all maternal deaths were coded for variables on healthcare uptake. Distribution of number of maternal deaths, cause-specific mortality and uptake of healthcare indicators were compared for poorer and richer states. There were 10,041 all-cause deaths in women age 15-49 years, of which 1096 (11.1%) were maternal deaths. Based on 2004-2006 SRS national MMR estimates of 254 deaths per 100,000 live births, we estimated rural areas of poorer states had the highest MMR (397, 95%CI 385-410) compared to the lowest MMR in urban areas of richer states (115, 95%CI 85-146). We estimated 69,400 maternal deaths in India in 2005. Three-quarters of maternal deaths were clustered in rural areas of poorer states, although these regions have only half the estimated live births in India. Most maternal deaths were attributed to direct obstetric causes (82%). There was no difference in the major causes of maternal deaths between poorer and richer states. Two-thirds of women died seeking some form of healthcare, most seeking care in a critical medical condition. Rural areas of poorer states had proportionately lower access and utilization to healthcare services than the urban areas; however this rural-urban difference was not seen in richer states.
Maternal mortality and poor access to healthcare is disproportionately higher in rural populations of the poorer states of India.
Journal Article
Snakebite Mortality in India: A Nationally Representative Mortality Survey
by
Mohapatra, Bijayeeni
,
Dhingra, Neeraj
,
Suraweera, Wilson
in
Accidental deaths
,
Adolescent
,
Adult
2011
India has long been thought to have more snakebites than any other country. However, inadequate hospital-based reporting has resulted in estimates of total annual snakebite mortality ranging widely from about 1,300 to 50,000. We calculated direct estimates of snakebite mortality from a national mortality survey.
We conducted a nationally representative study of 123,000 deaths from 6,671 randomly selected areas in 2001-03. Full-time, non-medical field workers interviewed living respondents about all deaths. The underlying causes were independently coded by two of 130 trained physicians. Discrepancies were resolved by anonymous reconciliation or, failing that, by adjudication. A total of 562 deaths (0.47% of total deaths) were assigned to snakebites. Snakebite deaths occurred mostly in rural areas (97%), were more common in males (59%) than females (41%), and peaked at ages 15-29 years (25%) and during the monsoon months of June to September. This proportion represents about 45,900 annual snakebite deaths nationally (99% CI 40,900 to 50,900) or an annual age-standardised rate of 4.1/100,000 (99% CI 3.6-4.5), with higher rates in rural areas (5.4/100,000; 99% CI 4.8-6.0), and with the highest state rate in Andhra Pradesh (6.2). Annual snakebite deaths were greatest in the states of Uttar Pradesh (8,700), Andhra Pradesh (5,200), and Bihar (4,500).
Snakebite remains an underestimated cause of accidental death in modern India. Because a large proportion of global totals of snakebites arise from India, global snakebite totals might also be underestimated. Community education, appropriate training of medical staff and better distribution of antivenom, especially to the 13 states with the highest prevalence, could reduce snakebite deaths in India.
Journal Article
A Narrative Review of the Association of Obstructive Sleep Apnea with Hypertension: How to Treat Both When They Coexist?
by
Peker, Yüksel
,
Fırat, Selma
,
Altay, Servet
in
Antihypertensives
,
Blood pressure
,
Body mass index
2023
Hypertension (HT) is a worldwide public health issue and an essential risk factor for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a condition characterized by recurrent episodes of apnea and hypopnea as a consequence of partial or complete obstruction of the upper airways due to anatomic and/or functional disturbances. There is mounting evidence of a relationship between OSA and HT. In patients with OSA, HT is predominantly nocturnal and characterized by high diastolic blood pressure and usually by a nondipping pattern. Optimizing the blood pressure control is recommended in the current guidelines as the first treatment option in hypertensive patients with OSA. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy may reduce blood pressure, albeit only slightly as a stand-alone treatment. CPAP, as an add-on treatment to antihypertensive medication, appears to be an efficient treatment modality when both conditions coexist. This narrative review aims to summarize the current perspectives on the association of OSA with HT and the treatment options available for adults with OSA-related HT.
Journal Article
The Lotic Intersite Nitrogen Experiments: an example of successful ecological research collaboration
2014
Collaboration is an essential skill for modern ecologists because it brings together diverse expertise, viewpoints, and study systems. The Lotic Intersite Nitrogen eXperiments (LINX I and II), a 17-y research endeavor involving scores of early- to late-career stream ecologists, is an example of the benefits, challenges, and approaches of successful collaborative research in ecology. The scientific success of LINX reflected tangible attributes including clear scientific goals (hypothesis-driven research), coordinated research methods, a team of cooperative scientists, excellent leadership, extensive communication, and a philosophy of respect for input from all collaborators. Intangible aspects of the collaboration included camaraderie and strong team chemistry. LINX further benefited from being part of a discipline in which collaboration is a tradition, clear data-sharing and authorship guidelines, an approach that melded field experiments and modeling, and a shared collaborative goal in the form of a universal commitment to see the project and resulting data products through to completion.
Journal Article
Reliability of the test of gross motor development: A systematic review
by
Rey, Ezequiel
,
Carballo-Fazanes, Aida
,
Abelairas-Gómez, Cristian
in
Analysis
,
Biology and Life Sciences
,
Consistency
2020
To identify, synthesise and evaluate studies that investigated the reliability of the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD) variants.
A systematic search was employed to identify studies that have investigated internal consistency, inter-rater, intra-rater and test-retest reliability of the TGMD variants through Scopus, Pubmed/MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Sport Discus and Web of Science databases.
Of the 265 studies identified, 23 were included. Internal consistency, evaluated in 14 studies, confirming good-to-excellent consistency for the overall score and general motor quotient (GMQ), and acceptable-to-excellent levels in both subscales (locomotor and ball skills). Inter-rater reliability, evaluated in 19 studies, showing good-to-excellent intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) values in locomotor skills score, ball skills score, overall score, and GMQ. Intra-rater reliability, evaluated in 13 studies, displaying excellent ICC values in overall score and GMQ, and good-to-excellent ICC values in locomotor skills score and ball skills score. Test-retest reliability was evaluated in 15 studies with 100% of the statistics reported above the threshold of acceptable reliability when ICC was not used. Studies with ICC statistic showed good-to-excellent values in ball skills score, overall score, and GMQ; and moderate-to-excellent values in locomotor skills score.
Overall, the results of this systematic review indicate that, regardless of the variant of the test, the TMGD has moderate-to-excellent internal consistency, good-to-excellent inter-rater reliability, good-to-excellent intra-rater reliability, and moderate-to-excellent test-retest reliability. Considering the few high-quality studies in terms of internal consistency, it would be recommend to carry out further studies in this field to improve their quality. Since there is no gold standard for assessing FMS, TGMD variants could be appropriate when opting for a psychometrical robust test. However, standardized training protocols for coding TGMD variants seem to be necessary both for researchers and practitioners in order to ensure acceptable reliability.
Journal Article
Congenital Titinopathies Linked to Mutations in TTN Metatranscript-Only Exons
2024
Congenital titinopathies reported to date show autosomal recessive inheritance and are caused by a variety of genomic variants, most of them located in metatranscript (MTT)-only exons. The aim of this study was to describe additional patients and establish robust genotype–phenotype associations in titinopathies. This study involved analyzing molecular, clinical, pathological, and muscle imaging features in 20 patients who had at least one pathogenic or likely pathogenic TTN variant in MTT-only exons, with onset occurring antenatally or in the early postnatal stages. The 20 patients with recessive inheritance exhibited a heterogeneous range of phenotypes. These included fetal lethality, progressive weakness, cardiac or respiratory complications, hyper-CKemia, or dystrophic muscle biopsies. MRI revealed variable abnormalities in different muscles. All patients presented severe congenital myopathy at birth, characterized by arthrogryposis (either multiplex or axial–distal) or neonatal hypotonia in most cases. This study provides detailed genotype–phenotype correlations in congenital titinopathies caused by mutations in MTT-only exons. The findings highlight the variability in clinical presentation and the severity of phenotypes associated with these specific genetic alterations. RNA-seq analyses provided valuable insights into the molecular consequences of TTN variants, particularly in relation to splicing defects and nonsense-mediated RNA decay. In conclusion, this study reinforces the genotype–phenotype correlations between congenital myopathies and variants in TTN MTT-only exons, improves their molecular diagnosis, and provides a better understanding of their pathophysiology.
Journal Article
Clinical practice guidelines for perioperative multimodality treatment of non-small cell lung cancer
by
Bi, Nan
,
Zhang, Lan
,
Gao, Shugeng
in
Adjuvants
,
Cancer therapies
,
Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung - surgery
2025
Abstract
Background:
Lung cancer is currently the most prevalent malignancy and the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Although the early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) presents a relatively good prognosis, a considerable number of lung cancer cases are still detected and diagnosed at locally advanced or late stages. Surgical treatment combined with perioperative multimodality treatment is the mainstay of treatment for locally advanced NSCLC and has been shown to improve patient survival. Following the standard methods of neoadjuvant therapy, perioperative management, postoperative adjuvant therapy, and other therapeutic strategies are important for improving patients’ prognosis and quality of life. However, controversies remain over the perioperative management of NSCLC and presently consensus and standardized guidelines are lacking for addressing critical clinical issues in multimodality treatment.
Methods:
The working group consisted of 125 multidisciplinary experts from thoracic surgery, medical oncology, radiotherapy, epidemiology, and psychology. This guideline was developed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. The clinical questions were collected and selected based on preliminary open-ended questionnaires and subsequent discussions during the Guideline Working Group meetings. PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched for available evidence. The GRADE system was used to evaluate the quality of evidence and grade the strengths of recommendations. Finally, the recommendations were developed through a structured consensus-building process.
Results:
The Guideline Development Group initially collected a total of 62 important clinical questions. After a series of consensus-building conferences, 24 clinical questions were identified and corresponding recommendations were ultimately developed, focusing on neoadjuvant therapy, perioperative management, adjuvant therapy, postoperative psychological rehabilitation, prognosis assement, and follow-up protocols for NSCLC.
Conclusions:
This guideline puts forward reasonable recommendations focusing on neoadjuvant therapy, perioperative management, adjuvant therapy, postoperative psychological rehabilitation, prognosis assessment, and follow-up protocol of NSCLC. It standardizes perioperative multimodality treatment and provides guidance for clinical practice among thoracic surgeons, medical oncologists, and radiotherapists, aiming to reduce postoperative recurrence, improve patient survival, accelerate recovery, and minimize postoperative complications such as atelectasis.
Journal Article