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The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project develops a framework to design low-emission development pathways. This Perspective discusses the framework and how it can support the development of national strategies to meet climate targets, as well as help achieve stakeholder engagement.

In the aftermath of COP21, potential post-2030 emission trajectories and their consistency with the 2 °C target are a core concern for the ocean scientific community in light of the end-century risks of impact scenarios.

What are relevant urban development investment strategies for improving building energy efficiency (BEE) and decarbonizing the urban district heating supply in rapidly urbanizing China? Different trajectories of BEE and energy supply technologies are compared in the urban context in a northern Chinese city. Vigorous improvement of BEE will significantly enhance the prospective financial capacity to facilitate deployment of backstop technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage) in order to decarbonize the energy supply and achieve the long-term targets of low-carbon buildings. Carbon finance instruments should be used to facilitate public policy to accompany the necessary transition in the urban development process. The government-run efficiency procurement scheme will overcome the problem of insufficient incentive and high transaction costs associated with individual Clean Development Mechanism projects. Appropriate investment strategies (allocation of financial resources over the time frame) will allow local governments to harness the large potentials of carbon emissions mitigation while minimizing the risk of long-term technical lock-in in the built environment in Chinese cities.

The relevance and cost-effectiveness are key criteria for policymakers to select appropriate policy and economic instruments for reducing carbon emissions. Here we assess the applicability of carbon finance instruments for the improvement in building energy efficiency by adopting the high efficiency standards as well as advanced energy supply systems, building on a case study in a northern city in China. We find that upgrading the current Chinese BEE standard to one of the best practices in the world coupled with the state-of-the-art energy supply system implies an abatement cost at 16US$/tCO 2 , which is compatible with the international carbon market price. The institutional reorganization turns out to be indispensable to facilitate the implementation of the proposed scheme of local government-led energy efficiency programme in the form of programmatic CDM in China’s buildings sector. We show that with international support such as carbon finance, the BEE improvement will facilitate city’s transition to low-carbon supply in the longer term. More importantly, it is argued that demand-side energy performance improvement in buildings should be considered a prerequisite to shifting low-carbon energy supply technologies such as fuel-switching, renewable power generation and Carbon Capture and Storage to address climate mitigation in light of cost-effectiveness and environmental integrity.

À Varsovie, les pays se sont mis d’accord sur un processus où chacun, unilatéralement, élaborera et communiquera sa contribution à l’effort de réduction des émissions de GES dans l’atmosphère qui sera entériné fin 2015 à Paris. Sur cette base, est-il encore possible d’imaginer que l’Accord de Paris marquera un tournant historique des politiques climatiques et qu’il pourra être à la hauteur de l’ambition affichée par la communauté internationale lors du sommet de Durban ? What agreement in Paris in 2015?In Warsaw, countries agreed to a process whereby each will unilaterally design and communicate its contribution toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. This process is to be ratified in late 2015 in Paris. Will the Paris agreement mark a turning point in climate policy? Will it measure up to the ambitions proclaimed by the international community at the Durban meeting?

Le Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP) est un projet international qui vise à élaborer des trajectoires de décarbonation nationales compatibles avec l’objectif global des 2?C de réchauffement global maximal à l’horizon 2050. Ce travail est mené conjointement dans 15 pays parmi les principaux émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre par des « équipes pays » composées d’experts locaux dans le domaine de l’aide à la décision sur les questions climatiques.Ces trajectoires doivent permettre a) de caractériser les ruptures économiques, techniques et comportementales à envisager pour accompagner la transition, b) d’identifier les composantes des trajectoires de décarbonation en fonction des spécificités nationales et, enfin, c) d’analyser la temporalité des effets accompagnant cette transition et le séquençage des mesures susceptibles de les induire.Après un rapport intermédiaire, publié en septembre 2014, ce projet donnera lieu à un rapport final à la mi-2015 avec l’objectif de soutenir l’adoption d’un accord international sur le climat lors de la COP21 (conférence Paris Climat de 2015) en éclairant les implications et les conditions de réalisation d’une décarbonation profonde. Transparent national strategies for long-term decarbonization in compliance with the 2?C goal: The Deep Decarbonization Pathways ProjectFifteen countries among the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases are involved in the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), which is based on “country teams” of climate experts. This international project seeks to draw the pathways for a transition toward national decarbonization in compliance with the goal of limiting global warming to 2?C maximum by 2050. These pathways should serve to: a) foresee the economic, technical and behavioral “ruptures” to be addressed in order to facilitate the transition; b) identify specifically national factors in pathways toward decarbonization; and c) analyze the effects over time of this transition and the sequencing of the measures that might cause them. A preliminary report was released in September 2014, and the final report is scheduled for mid-2015. In support of an international agreement during the Paris Climate Conference, it will focus on the implications of deep decarbonization and the conditions for achieving it.

// ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: Fifteen countries among the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases are involved in the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), which is based on \"country teams\" of climate experts. This international project seeks to draw the pathways for a transition toward national decarbonization in compliance with the goal of limiting global warming to 2°C maximum by 2050. These pathways should serve to: a) foresee the economic, technical and behavioral \"ruptures\" to be addressed in order to facilitate the transition; b) identify specifically national factors in pathways toward decarbonization; and c) analyze the effects over time of this transition and the sequencing of the measures that might cause them. A preliminary report was released in September 2014, and the final report is scheduled for mid-2015. In support of an international agreement during the Paris Climate Conference, it will focus on the implications of deep decarbonization and the conditions for achieving it. // ABSTRACT IN FRENCH: Le Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP) est un projet international qui vise à élaborer des trajectoires de décarbonation nationales compatibles avec l'objectif global des 2°C de réchauffement global maximal à l'horizon 2050. Ce travail est mené conjointement dans 15 pays parmi les principaux émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre par des «équipes pays» composées d'experts locaux dans le domaine de l'aide à la décision sur les questions climatiques. Ces trajectoires doivent permettre a) de caractériser les ruptures économiques, techniques et comportementales à envisager pour accompagner la transition, b) d'identifier les composantes des trajectoires de décarbonation en fonction des spécificités nationales et, enfin, c) d'analyser la temporalité des effets accompagnant cette transition et le séquençage des mesures susceptibles de les induire. Après un rapport intermédiaire, publié en septembre 2014, ce projet donnera lieu à un rapport final à la mi-2015 avec l'objectif de soutenir l'adoption d'un accord international sur le climat lors de la COP21 (conférence Paris Climat de 2015) en éclairant les implications et les conditions de réalisation d'une décarbonation profonde. Reproduced by permission of Bibliothèque de Sciences Po

// ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: In Warsaw, countries agreed to a process whereby each will unilaterally design and communicate its contribution toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. This process is to be ratified in late 2015 in Paris. Will the Paris agreement mark a turning point in climate policy? Will it measure up to the ambitions proclaimed by the international community at the Durban meeting? // ABSTRACT IN FRENCH: À Varsovie, les pays se sont mis d'accord sur un processus où chacun, unilatéralement, élaborera et communiquera sa contribution à l'effort de réduction des émissions de GES dans l'atmosphère qui sera entériné fin 2015 à Paris. Sur cette base, est-il encore possible d'imaginer que l'Accord de Paris marquera un tournant historique des politiques climatiques et qu'il pourra être à la hauteur de l'ambition affichée par la communauté internationale lors du sommet de Durban? Reproduced by permission of Bibliothèque de Sciences Po