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Biologists have raised objections to a new canal in Nicaragua, but in this Essay I argue that dire predictions of environmental catastrophe are exaggerated. I present an alternative view based on my research experience in Panama, where Canal operations foster forest conservation. Currently in Nicaragua, the rate of forest loss is so rapid that the canal cannot make it worse. Rather, I contend, adoption of international standards in canal construction could lead to net environmental and social benefits for the country.

In tropical tree communities, processes occurring during early life stages play a critical role in shaping forest composition and diversity through differences in species' performance. Predicting the future of tropical forests depends on a solid understanding of the drivers of seedling survival. At the same time, factors determining spatial and temporal patterns of seedling survival can play a large role in permitting species coexistence in diverse communities. Using long-term data on the survival of more than 45 000 seedlings of 238 species in a Neotropical forest, we assessed the relative importance of key abiotic and biotic neighbourhood variables thought to influence individual seedling survival and tested whether species vary significantly in their responses to these variables, consistent with niche differences. At the community level, seedling survival was significantly correlated with plant size, topographic habitat, neighbourhood densities of conspecific seedlings, conspecific and heterospecific trees and annual variation in water availability, in descending order of effect size. Additionally, we found significant variation among species in their sensitivity to light and water availability, as well as in their survival within different topographic habitats, indicating the potential for niche differentiation among species that could allow for species coexistence.

Understanding tropical forest dynamics and planning for their sustainable management require efficient, yet accurate, predictions of the joint dynamics of hundreds of tree species. With increasing information on tropical tree life histories, our predictive understanding is no longer limited by species data but by the ability of existing models to make use of it. Using a demographic forest model, we show that the basal area and compositional changes during forest succession in a neotropical forest can be accurately predicted by representing tropical tree diversity (hundreds of species) with only five functional groups spanning two essential trade-offs—the growth-survival and stature-recruitment trade-offs. This data-driven modeling framework substantially improves our ability to predict consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests.

The Brighton Collaboration Viral Vector Vaccines Safety Working Group (V3SWG) was formed to evaluate the safety and characteristics of live, recombinant viral vector vaccines. The Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) vector system is being explored as a platform for development of multiple vaccines. This paper reviews the molecular and biological features specifically of the MVA-BN vector system, followed by a template with details on the safety and characteristics of an MVA-BN based vaccine against Zaire ebolavirus and other filovirus strains. The MVA-BN-Filo vaccine is based on a live, highly attenuated poxviral vector incapable of replicating in human cells and encodes glycoproteins of Ebola virus Zaire, Sudan virus and Marburg virus and the nucleoprotein of the Thai Forest virus. This vaccine has been approved in the European Union in July 2020 as part of a heterologous Ebola vaccination regimen. The MVA-BN vector is attenuated following over 500 serial passages in eggs, showing restricted host tropism and incompetence to replicate in human cells. MVA has six major deletions and other mutations of genes outside these deletions, which all contribute to the replication deficiency in human and other mammalian cells. Attenuation of MVA-BN was demonstrated by safe administration in immunocompromised mice and non-human primates. In multiple clinical trials with the MVA-BN backbone, more than 7800 participants have been vaccinated, demonstrating a safety profile consistent with other licensed, modern vaccines. MVA-BN has been approved as smallpox vaccine in Europe and Canada in 2013, and as smallpox and monkeypox vaccine in the US in 2019. No signal for inflammatory cardiac disorders was identified throughout the MVA-BN development program. This is in sharp contrast to the older, replicating vaccinia smallpox vaccines, which have a known risk for myocarditis and/or pericarditis in up to 1 in 200 vaccinees. MVA-BN-Filo as part of a heterologous Ebola vaccination regimen (Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo) has undergone clinical testing including Phase III in West Africa and is currently in use in large scale vaccination studies in Central African countries. This paper provides a comprehensive picture of the MVA-BN vector, which has reached regulatory approvals, both as MVA-BN backbone for smallpox/monkeypox, as well as for the MVA-BN-Filo construct as part of an Ebola vaccination regimen, and therefore aims to provide solutions to prevent disease from high-consequence human pathogens.

Tropical forest vegetation is shaped by climate and by soil, but understanding how the distributions of individual tree species respond to specific resources has been hindered by high diversity and consequent rarity. To study species over an entire community, we surveyed trees and measured soil chemistry across climatic and geological gradients in central Panama and then used a unique hierarchical model of species occurrence as a function of rainfall and soil chemistry to circumvent analytical difficulties posed by rare species. The results are a quantitative assessment of the responses of 550 tree species to eight environmental factors, providing a measure of the importance of each factor across the entire tree community. Dry-season intensity and soil phosphorus were the strongest predictors, each affecting the distribution of more than half of the species. Although we anticipated clear-cut responses to dry-season intensity, the finding that many species have pronounced associations with either high or low phosphorus reveals a previously unquantified role for this nutrient in limiting tropical tree distributions. The results provide the data necessary for understanding distributional limits of tree species and predicting future changes in forest composition.

Background Ecologists are interested in assessing the spatial and temporal variation in ecological surveys repeated over time. This paper compares the 1985 and 2015 surveys of the Barro Colorado Forest Dynamics plot (BCI), Panama, divided into 1250 (20 m × 20 m) quadrats. Methods, spatial analysis Total beta diversity was measured as the total variance of the Hellinger-transformed community data throughout the BCI plot. Total beta was partitioned into contributions of individual sites (LCBD indices), which were tested for significance and mapped. Results, spatial analysis LCBD indices indicated the sites with exceptional community composition. In 1985, they were mostly found in the swamp habitat. In the 2015 survey, none of the swamp quadrats had significant LCBDs. What happened to the tree community in the interval? Methods, temporal analysis The dissimilarity in community composition in each quadrat was measured between time 1 (1985) and time 2 (2015). Temporal Beta Indices (TBI) were computed from abundance and presence-absence data and tested for significance. TBI indices can be decomposed into B  = species (or abundances-per-species) losses and C  = species (or abundances-per-species) gains. B-C plots were produced; they display visually the relative importance of the loss and gain components, through time, across the sites. Results, temporal analysis In BCI, quadrats with significant TBI indices were found in the swamp area, which is shrinking in importance due to changes to the local climate. A published habitat classification divided the BCI forest plot into six habitat zones. Graphs of the B and C components were produced for each habitat group. Group 4 (the swamp) was dominated by species (and abundances-per-species) gains whereas the five other habitat groups were dominated by losses, some groups more than others. Conclusions We identified the species that had changed the most in abundances in the swamp between T1 and T2. This analysis supported the hypothesis that the swamp is drying out and is invaded by species from the surrounding area. Analysis of the B and C components of temporal beta diversity bring us to the heart of the mechanisms of community change through time: losses ( B ) and gains ( C ) of species, losses and gains of individuals of various species. TBI analysis is especially interesting in species-rich communities where we cannot examine the changes in every species individually.

Relationships between functional traits and average or potential demographic rates have provided insight into the functional constraints and trade-offs underlying life-history strategies of tropical tree species. We have extended this framework by decomposing growth rates of ∼130 000 trees of 171 Neotropical tree species into intrinsic growth and the response of growth to light and size. We related these growth characteristics to multiple functional traits (wood density, adult stature, seed mass, leaf traits) in a hierarchical Bayesian model that accounted for measurement error and intraspecific variability of functional traits. Wood density was the most important trait determining all three growth characteristics. Intrinsic growth rates were additionally strongly related to adult stature, while all traits contributed to light response. Our analysis yielded a predictive model that allows estimation of growth characteristics for rare species on the basis of a few easily measurable morphological traits.

Dispersal drives extinction-recolonization dynamics of metapopulations and is necessary for endangered species to recolonize former ranges. Yet few studies quantify dispersal and even fewer examine consistency of dispersal over many years. The northern elephant seal ( Mirounga angustirostris ) provides an example of the importance of dispersal. It quickly recolonized its full range after near extirpation by 19 th century hunting, and though dispersal was observed it was not quantified. Here we enumerate lifetime dispersal events among females marked as pups at two colonies during 1994-2010, then correct for detection biases to estimate bidirectional dispersal rates. An average of 16% of females born at the Piedras Blancas colony dispersed northward 200 km to breed at Año Nuevo, while 8.0% of those born at Año Nuevo dispersed southward to Piedras Blancas. The northward rate fluctuated considerably but was higher than southward in 15 of 17 cohorts. The population at Piedras Blancas expanded 15-fold during the study, while Año Nuevo’s declined slightly, but the expectation that seals would emigrate away from high density colonies was not supported. During the 1990s, dispersal was higher away from the small colony toward the large. Moreover, cohorts born later at Piedras Blancas, when the colony had grown, dispersed no more than early cohorts. Consistently high natal dispersal in northern elephant seals means the population must be considered a single large unit in terms of response to environmental change. High dispersal was fortuitous to the past recovery of the species, and continued dispersal means elephant seals will likely expand their range further.

The Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) is found in tropical and subtropical riverine and coastal waters across the Caribbean region. Little is known of its population status, particularly in Central America. We counted andmapped manatees using side-scan sonar in the San San Pond Sak wetland, a protected estuary in western Panama, for 12 months, and converted the sightings into density and abundance estimates. A total of 214 sonar transects, covering 1,731 km and detecting 1,004 manatees, were completed. The greatest density of animals was found in the narrow and relatively deep upstream tributaries and also in a shallow lagoon near the river mouth. The estimated mean number of manatees in the 18-km San San River system over the year was 18.3, but abundance was highly seasonal, with 33 animals present in May and just 2 animals in December. These figures are within the range reported for similar rivers in Central America and Florida, USA. Uncertainty of the population size was estimated with a Bayesian model, using daily variance in counts, and 95% credible intervals were 22–71 animals at peak season but just 1–6 animals in December. The active sonar survey used in this study located manatees, mapped their positions, and converted sightings into quantitative data for rigorous analysis. The method is cost-effective for repeated counts across seasons and years, needed to evaluate population trends.

• The effects of climate change on tropical forests will depend on how diverse tropical tree species respond to drought. Current distributions of evergreen and deciduous tree species across local and regional moisture gradients reflect their ability to tolerate drought stress, and might be explained by functional traits. • We measured leaf water potential at turgor loss (i.e. ‘wilting point’; πtlp), wood density (WD) and leaf mass per area (LMA) on 50 of the most abundant tree species in central Panama. We then tested their ability to explain distributions of evergreen and deciduous species within a 50 ha plot on Barro Colorado Island and across a 70 km rainfall gradient spanning the Isthmus of Panama. • Among evergreen trees, species with lower πtlp were associated with drier habitats, with πtlp explaining 28% and 32% of habitat association on local and regional scales, respectively, greatly exceeding the predictive power of WD and LMA. In contrast, πtlp did not predict habitat associations among deciduous species. • Across spatial scales, πtlp is a useful indicator of habitat preference for tropical tree species that retain their leaves during periods of water stress, and holds the potential to predict vegetation responses to climate change.