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The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm·y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm·y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm·y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Despite being exposed to convective stresses for much of the Earth's history, cratonic roots appear capable of resisting mantle shearing. This tectonic stability can be attributed to the neutral density and higher strength of cratons. However, the excess thickness of cratons and their higher viscosity amplify coupling to underlying mantle flow, which could be destabilizing. To investigate the stresses that a convecting mantle exerts on cratons that are both strong and thick, we developed instantaneous global spherical numerical models that incorporate present‐day geoemetry of cratons within active mantle flow. Our results show that mantle flow is diverted downward beneath thick and viscous cratonic roots, giving rise to a ring of elevated and inwardly‐convergent tractions along a craton's periphery. These tractions induce regional compressive stress regimes within cratonic interiors. Such compression could serve to stabilize older continental lithosphere against mantle shearing, thus adding an additional factor that promotes cratonic longevity. Plain Language Summary Cratons are the oldest continental relicts on Earth. Due to plate tectonics and mantle convection, many non‐cratonic rocks get recycled. However, cratons have escaped tectonic recycling, and some have remained stable for more than ∼3 billion years. Previous studies have shown that cratons' high strength and neutral buoyancy provide them with tectonic stability. Here we show that the deep roots of cratons also help to stabilize them. This is because mantle flow is deflected downward beneath thick cratonic roots, and this deflection generates a ring of inwardly‐directed forces around the edges of the craton. These inward forces compress the craton interior. Such self‐induced compressive stresses may further help to stabilize Earth's oldest lithosphere. Key Points Mantle flow leads to inwardly convergent tractions around the edges of cratons, and compressive stress within Convergent tractions result from the downward diversion of mantle flow This convective self‐compression could help stabilize older lithosphere against convective erosion

The mantle near Earth's subduction zones endures intense deformation that generates anisotropic rock textures. These textures can be observed seismically and modeled geodynamically, but the complexity of this deformation makes analyses of these textures difficult. In this study, we apply time‐series clustering analysis to tracers within subduction models, allowing for the identification of regions in the subduction zone with common deformation histories and olivine crystallographic‐preferred orientation development. We compare olivine texture evolution predicted using different methods in both retreating and stationary‐trench settings. Our results reveal distinct variations in olivine texture, indicating that both seismic and viscous anisotropy can exhibit substantial heterogeneity within the mantle wedge, sub‐slab, and subducting plate regions. For retreating trenches, olivine textures are strongest in the mid‐depth mantle wedge region about 200 km away from the trench between 100 and 300 km depth. Our study shows that trench‐normal olivine a‐axis orientations dominate in the center of subduction zones. Toroidal flow around slab edges generates a mix of trench‐normal, trench‐parallel, and oblique fast seismic directions. Textures and anisotropy are stronger for the retreating trench model than for the stationary trench model since more deformation has been accumulated due to trench motion. These findings provide insights for interpreting seismic anisotropy in subduction zones and highlight the importance of considering texture heterogeneity, as characterized by clustering algorithms, when analyzing both geodynamic models and seismic observations of subduction zones.

The widespread High Arctic Large Igneous Province (HALIP) exhibits prolonged melting over more than 50 Myr, an observation that is difficult to reconcile with the classic view that large igneous provinces (LIPs) originate from melting in plume heads. Hence, the suggested plume‐related origin and classification of HALIP as a LIP have been questioned. Here, we use numerical models that include melting and melt migration to investigate a rising plume interacting with lithosphere of variable thickness, that is, a basin‐to‐craton setting applicable to the Arctic. Models reveal that melt migration introduces significant spatial and temporal variations in melt volumes and pulses of melt production, including protracted melting for at least about 30–40 Myr, because of the dynamic feedback between migrating melt and local lithosphere thinning. For HALIP, plume material deflected from underneath the Greenland craton can re‐activate melting zones below the previously plume‐influenced Sverdrup Basin after a melt‐free period of about 10–15 Myr, even though the plume is already ∼500 km away. Hence, actively melting zones do not necessarily represent the location of the deeper plume stem at a given time, especially for secondary pulses. Additional processes such as (minor) plume flux variations or local lithospheric extension may alter the timing and volume of HALIP pulses, but are to first order not required to reproduce the long‐lived and multi‐pulse magmatism of HALIP. Since melting zones are always plume‐fed, we would expect HALIP magmatism to exhibit plume‐related trace element signatures throughout time, potentially shifting from mostly tholeiitic toward more alkalic compositions. Plain Language Summary Typically, the arrival of a large mantle upwelling (“mantle plume”) is expected to cause catastrophic large‐scale volcanism that lasts a few million years. However, a massive past volcanic event now distributed onshore and offshore across the Arctic (the High Arctic Large Igneous Province—HALIP) defies this definition. This wide‐spread magmatism exhibits dates spanning more than 50 Myr, with several pulses of activity. Based on this prolonged magmatism, it has been questioned whether all of it can be attributed to a mantle plume, despite the geochemistry of basalts indicating a plume source. Here, we show that a plume can cause prolonged and multi‐pulse magmatism if it interacts with an increase in lithosphere thickness. Once the plume moves below the thicker lithosphere, hot plume material is channeled along the base of the lithosphere toward the adjacent thinner part, where it can reactivate previous melting regions. At this time, the active plume can be about 500 km away from the melting region, hence plume‐related melt cannot be used as a proxy for the plume position at the given time. Based on the models, we suggest that the prolonged HALIP magmatism was caused by a plume interacting with the edge of a craton. Key Points Mantle plumes interacting with changes in lithosphere thickness at craton edges can cause prolonged melting with pulses in the same region Rejuvenated melting happens underneath previously melt‐affected thinned lithosphere several hundred km downstream of the plume stem The timing and duration of rejuvenated melting in models correspond to and therefore may explain observations of magmatic pulses from High Arctic Large Igneous Province

Although an average westward rotation of the Earth's lithosphere is indicated by global analyses of surface features tied to the deep mantle (e.g., hot spot tracks), the rate of lithospheric drift is uncertain despite its importance to global geodynamics. We use a global viscous flow model to predict asthenospheric anisotropy computed from linear combinations of mantle flow fields driven by relative plate motions, mantle density heterogeneity, and westward lithosphere rotation. By comparing predictions of lattice preferred orientation to asthenospheric anisotropy in oceanic regions inferred from SKS splitting observations and surface wave tomography, we constrain absolute upper mantle viscosity (to 0.5–1.0 × 1021 Pa s, consistent with other constraints) simultaneously with net rotation rate and the decrease in the viscosity of the asthenosphere relative to that of the upper mantle. For an asthenosphere 10 times less viscous than the upper mantle, we find that global net rotation must be <0.26°/Myr (<60% of net rotation in the HS3 (Pacific hot spot) reference frame); larger viscosity drops amplify asthenospheric shear associated with net rotation and thus require slower net rotation to fit observed anisotropy. The magnitude of westward net rotation is consistent with lithospheric drift relative to Indo‐Atlantic hot spots but is slower than drift in the Pacific hot spot frame (HS3 ≈ 0.44°/Myr). The latter may instead express net rotation relative to the deep mantle beneath the Pacific plate, which is moving rapidly eastward in our models.

Global-scale mantle flow patterns can be deduced from the net behaviour (convergence and divergence) of surface plate motions; persistent quadrupole divergence in central Africa and the central Pacific suggest sustained stationary upwelling beneath these locations in the mantle. Mantle stability underlies geological turbulence Earth's long history of intense geological activity — mountain building and plate tectonic motion included — is correlated with viscous flow of the underlying mantle. Clinton Conrad and co-authors show here that despite their apparent complexity, the 'net characteristics' of plate tectonics reflect simple and steady large-scale patterns of viscous flow within the underlying mantle. They tracked the geographic locations of net convergence and divergence from tectonic reconstructions covering the past 250 million years, and found that the positions of divergence have not moved significantly and are found above two large upwellings, beneath Africa and the Pacific Ocean. The authors conclude that these lowermost mantle regions may have remained relatively stationary over geological time and thereby organized global mantle flow. Viscous convection within the mantle is linked to tectonic plate motions 1 , 2 , 3 and deforms Earth’s surface across wide areas 4 , 5 , 6 . Such close links between surface geology and deep mantle dynamics presumably operated throughout Earth’s history, but are difficult to investigate for past times because the history of mantle flow is poorly known 7 . Here we show that the time dependence of global-scale mantle flow can be deduced from the net behaviour of surface plate motions. In particular, we tracked the geographic locations of net convergence and divergence for harmonic degrees 1 and 2 by computing the dipole and quadrupole moments of plate motions from tectonic reconstructions 8 , 9 extended back to the early Mesozoic era. For present-day plate motions, we find dipole convergence in eastern Asia and quadrupole divergence in both central Africa and the central Pacific. These orientations are nearly identical to the dipole and quadrupole orientations of underlying mantle flow, which indicates that these ‘net characteristics’ of plate motions reveal deeper flow patterns. The positions of quadrupole divergence have not moved significantly during the past 250 million years, which suggests long-term stability of mantle upwelling beneath Africa and the Pacific Ocean. These upwelling locations are positioned above two compositionally and seismologically distinct 10 regions of the lowermost mantle, which may organize global mantle flow 11 as they remain stationary over geologic time 12 .

Volcanism observed far from plate boundaries, in the interior of oceanic and continental plates, may result from flow in the underlying mantle. Comparison between a numerical model of mantle flow and the spatial distribution of intraplate volcanism indicates that rapid shear motion in the mantle may drive melting that causes intraplate eruptions. Most of Earth’s volcanism occurs at plate boundaries, in association with subduction or rifting. A few high-volume volcanic fields are observed both at plate boundaries and within plates, fed by plumes upwelling from the deep mantle 1 . The remaining volcanism is observed away from plate boundaries. It is typically basaltic, effusive and low volume, occurring within continental interiors 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 or creating seamounts on the ocean floor 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 . This intraplate volcanism has been attributed to various localized processes 12 such as cracking of the lithosphere 8 , 13 , 14 , small-scale convection in the mantle beneath the lithosphere 15 , 16 , 17 or shear-induced melting of low-viscosity pockets of asthenospheric mantle that have become embedded along the base of the lithosphere 18 . Here we compare the locations of observed intraplate volcanism with global patterns of mantle flow from a numerical model. We find a correlation between recent continental and oceanic intraplate volcanism and areas of the asthenosphere that are experiencing rapid shear due to mantle convection. We detect particularly high correlations in the interior of the continents of western North America, eastern Australia, southern Europe and Antarctica, as well as west of the East Pacific Rise in the Pacific Ocean. We conclude that intraplate volcanism associated with mantle convection is best explained by melting caused by shear flow within the asthenosphere, whereas other localized processes are less important.

The redistribution of past and present ice and ocean loading on Earth's surface causes solid Earth deformation and geoid changes, known as glacial isostatic adjustment. The deformation is controlled by elastic and viscous material parameters, which are inhomogeneous in the Earth. We present a new viscoelastic solid Earth deformation model in ASPECT (Advanced Solver for Problems in Earth's ConvecTion): a modern, massively parallel, open‐source finite element code originally designed to simulate convection in the Earth's mantle. We show the performance of solid Earth deformation in ASPECT and compare solutions to TABOO, a semianalytical code, and Abaqus, a commercial finite element code. The maximum deformation and deformation rates using ASPECT agree within 2.6% for the average percentage difference with TABOO and Abaqus on glacial cycle (∼100 kyr) and contemporary ice melt (∼100 years) timescales. This gives confidence in the performance of our new solid Earth deformation model. We also demonstrate the computational efficiency of using adaptively refined meshes, which is a great advantage for solid Earth deformation modeling. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model performance in the presence of lateral viscosity variations in the upper mantle and report on parallel scalability of the code. This benchmarked code can now be used to investigate regional solid Earth deformation rates from ice age and contemporary ice melt. This is especially interesting for low‐viscosity regions in the upper mantle beneath Antarctica and Greenland, where it is not fully understood how ice age and contemporary ice melting contribute to geodetic measurements of solid Earth deformation. Plain Language Summary Mass changes on the Earth's surface, for example, from melting ice sheets or sea level rise, cause deflections of Earth's surface as interior rocks deform and flow. Scientists have developed models of the interior deformation resulting from loads applied to Earth's surface. Such models depend on the viscous and elastic properties of interior rocks, which quantify their capacity to deform and flow. However, because the Earth is heterogeneous, its viscoelastic properties exhibit large lateral variations that have proven difficult to accommodate within a (numerical) model. Here, we present and benchmark a new application of the open‐source code in ASPECT (Advanced Solver for Problems in Earth's ConvecTion), which was originally designed to model mantle convection occurring on timescales of millions of years or longer. The ASPECT code makes use of modern numerical methods, such as adaptive mesh refinement and advanced solver techniques. In particular, we show that this code is accurate and useful for modeling solid Earth deformation occurring on timescales relevant to contemporary (in response to climate change) and ice age melting (from decades to millennia). This code is especially useful for studying regions with both past and present ice melt and a heterogeneous Earth structure, such as Greenland and Antarctica. Key Points The solid Earth is deforming in response to past and present ice loading changes at rates determined by elastic and viscous parameters We benchmark a new viscoelastic solid Earth deformation model in the open‐source code ASPECT in combination with adaptive mesh refinement This code can be used to study regional Earth deformation rates from ice age and contemporary ice melt on a laterally heterogeneous Earth

The gravitational pull of subducted slabs is thought to drive the motions of Earth's tectonic plates, but the coupling between slabs and plates is not well established. If a slab is mechanically attached to a subducting plate, it can exert a direct pull on the plate. Alternatively, a detached slab may drive a plate by exciting flow in the mantle that exerts a shear traction on the base of the plate. From the geologic history of subduction, we estimated the relative importance of \"pull\" versus \"suction\" for the present-day plates. Observed plate motions are best predicted if slabs in the upper mantle are attached to plates and generate slab pull forces that account for about half of the total driving force on plates. Slabs in the lower mantle are supported by viscous mantle forces and drive plates through slab suction.

With an acceleration of global sea‐level rise during the satellite altimetry era (since 1993) firmly established, it is now appropriate to examine sea‐level projections made around the onset of this time period. Here we show that the mid‐range projection from the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC (1995/1996) was strikingly close to what transpired over the next 30 years, with the magnitude of sea‐level rise underestimated by only ∼1 cm. Projections of contributions from individual components were more variable, with a notable underestimation of dynamic mass loss from ice sheets. Nevertheless—and in view of the comparatively limited process understanding, modeling capabilities, and computational resources available three decades ago—these early attempts should inspire confidence in presently available global sea‐level projections. Such multidecadal evaluations of past climate projections, as presented here for sea‐level change, offer useful tests of past climate forecasts, and highlight the essential importance of continued climate monitoring. Plain Language Summary The ultimate test of climate projections occurs by means of subsequent observations. Three decades of satellite‐based measurements of global sea‐level change now enable such a comparison and show that early IPCC climate projections were remarkably accurate. Predictions of glacier mass loss and thermal expansion of seawater were comparatively successful, but the ice‐sheet contributions were underestimated. Nevertheless, these findings provide confidence in model‐based climate projections. Key Points IPCC projections in the mid‐1990s of global sea‐level change over the next 30 years were remarkably robust The largest disparities between projections and observations were due to underestimated dynamic mass loss of ice sheets Comparison of past projections with subsequent observations gives confidence in future climate projections