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The drying of the Tethys Sea—the progenitor of the modern Mediterranean, Black and Caspian seas—weakened the northern extension of the African monsoon and led to the creation of the Sahara desert about 7 million years ago. Sahara desert much older than we thought Most evidence suggests that the modern Sahara desert first arose between two and three million years ago, coinciding with the initiation of major glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere. This study puts Saharan origins much earlier. Zhongshi Zhang et al . show that the shrinkage of the Tethys Sea — the progenitor of the modern Mediterranean, Black and Caspian seas — weakened the northern extension of the African monsoon and led to the creation of the Sahara desert about seven million years ago. Such a dramatic revision could lead to new investigations of the Sahara in fields as diverse as geology, evolutionary biology and climatology. It is widely believed that the Sahara desert is no more than ∼2–3 million years (Myr) old 1 , with geological evidence showing a remarkable aridification of north Africa at the onset of the Quaternary ice ages 2 , 3 , 4 . Before that time, north African aridity was mainly controlled by the African summer monsoon (ASM) 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , which oscillated with Earth’s orbital precession cycles. Afterwards, the Northern Hemisphere glaciation added an ice volume forcing on the ASM, which additionally oscillated with glacial–interglacial cycles 2 . These findings led to the idea that the Sahara desert came into existence when the Northern Hemisphere glaciated ∼2–3 Myr ago. The later discovery, however, of aeolian dune deposits ∼7 Myr old 9 suggested a much older age, although this interpretation is hotly challenged 1 and there is no clear mechanism for aridification around this time. Here we use climate model simulations to identify the Tortonian stage (∼7–11 Myr ago) of the Late Miocene epoch as the pivotal period for triggering north African aridity and creating the Sahara desert. Through a set of experiments with the Norwegian Earth System Model 10 and the Community Atmosphere Model 11 , we demonstrate that the African summer monsoon was drastically weakened by the Tethys Sea shrinkage during the Tortonian, allowing arid, desert conditions to expand across north Africa. Not only did the Tethys shrinkage alter the mean climate of the region, it also enhanced the sensitivity of the African monsoon to orbital forcing, which subsequently became the major driver of Sahara extent fluctuations. These important climatic changes probably caused the shifts in Asian and African flora and fauna observed during the same period 4 , 12 , 13 , 14 , with possible links to the emergence of early hominins in north Africa 15 , 16 .

Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO 2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO 2 . Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO 2 forcing. In contrast to future projections, paleoclimate records often find wetter subtropics in tandem with elevated CO 2 . Here, a compilation of proxies and simulations are used to reveal the climate dynamics and feedbacks responsible for generating wet subtropics during the mid-Pliocene.

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

The implementation of boundary conditions is a key aspect of climate simulations. We describe here how the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) forcing data sets have been processed and implemented in Version 6 of the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace (IPSL) climate model (IPSL‐CM6A‐LR) as used for CMIP6. Details peculiar to some of the Model Intercomparison Projects are also described. IPSL‐CM6A‐LR is run without interactive chemistry; thus, tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols as well as ozone have to be prescribed. We improved the aerosol interpolation procedure and highlight a new methodology to adjust the ozone vertical profile in a way that is consistent with the model dynamical state at the time step level. The corresponding instantaneous and effective radiative forcings have been estimated and are being presented where possible. Plain Language Summary Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 is an international project to compare the results from climate model simulations performed according to a common protocol. Such simulations require boundary conditions (called “climate forcings”), which are fed to the models in order to represent, for example, long‐lived greenhouse gases, ozone, atmospheric aerosols, or land surface properties. The same forcing data sets are used by the different modeling groups who carry out the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations; however, their implementation may differ as it depends on the model structure. This article gives details of how these forcing data were implemented in the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR model. Some of the forcing data are common to all types all simulations, whereas others depend on the runs considered. Radiative forcings, as estimated in the model, are presented for some of the forcing mechanisms. Key Points We present how the CMIP6 forcing data were implemented in the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR climate model for the realization of the CMIP6 set of climate simulations An improved conservative interpolation procedure for emissions is detailed and illustrated to compute tropospheric aerosols We present a new methodology to adjust the prescribed ozone vertical profile to match the model atmospheric dynamical state around the tropopause

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2–3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

A comparative analysis of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is performed to reveal the drivers and mechanisms controlling the similarities of the mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation changes compared to the corresponding pre-industrial (PI) experiments derived from atmosphere-only (i.e. AGCM) and fully coupled (i.e. CGCM) simulations, as well as the large simulated differences in the mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation between the two simulations. The area-averaged precipitation over the EASM domain is enhanced in the mid-Pliocene compared to the corresponding PI experiments performed by both the AGCM (LMDZ5A) and the CGCM (IPSL-CM5A). Moisture budget analysis reveals that it is the surface warming over East Asia that drives the area-averaged EASM precipitation increase in the mid-Pliocene in both simulations. The surface warming increases the atmospheric moisture content, as revealed by an increase in the thermodynamic component of vertical moisture advection, resulting in enhanced mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation compared to PI in both simulations. Moist static energy diagnosis identifies the combined effect of enhanced zonal thermal contrast and column-integrated meridional stationary eddy velocity [Formula: see text] and its convergence [Formula: see text] as the physical mechanisms that sustain the enhancement of mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation in both simulations compared to the PI experiments. This takes place through a strengthening of the EASM circulation and moisture transport into the EASM domain associated with an increase in local moisture convergence in the mid-Pliocene in both simulations. Moisture budget analysis also reveals that the larger area-averaged mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation increase in the CGCM compared to its AGCM component is mainly caused by the dynamical component contributing more to the vertical moisture advection in the CGCM (i.e. IPSL-CM5A) compared to its AGCM (LMDZ5). The large simulated differences in the spatial pattern of the mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation between the two simulations result from the combined effect of enhanced meridional thermal contrast over the EASM domain and increased [Formula: see text] convergence over South China in the CGCM simulation compared to the AGCM simulation.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant driver of year-to-year climate variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacts climate pattern across the globe. However, the response of the ENSO system to past and potential future temperature increases is not fully understood. Here we investigate ENSO variability in the warmer climate of the mid-Pliocene (~3.0–3.3 Ma), when surface temperatures were ~2–3 °C above modern values, in a large ensemble of climate models—the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. We show that the ensemble consistently suggests a weakening of ENSO variability, with a mean reduction of 25% (±16%). We further show that shifts in the equatorial Pacific mean state cannot fully explain these changes. Instead, ENSO was suppressed by a series of off-equatorial processes triggered by a northward displacement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone: weakened convective feedback and intensified Southern Hemisphere circulation, which inhibit various processes that initiate ENSO. The connection between the climatological intertropical convergence zone position and ENSO we find in the past is expected to operate in our warming world with important ramifications for ENSO variability.

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21 st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study, pollen-based precipitation records are reconstructed and compared to the multi-model ensemble mean of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). We find spatially consistent precipitation increase in most simulations but a spatially divergent change in MPWP records. We reconcile proxy data and simulation by decomposing physical processes that control precipitation. Our results 1) reveal thermodynamic control of an overall enhancement of EASM precipitation and 2) highlight a distinct control of thermodynamic and dynamical processes on increases of tropical and subtropical EASM precipitation, reflecting the two pathways of water vapor supply that enhance EASM precipitation, respectively.