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Reducing antibiotic treatment duration is a key component of hospital antibiotic stewardship interventions. However, its effectiveness in reducing antimicrobial resistance is uncertain and a clear theoretical rationale for the approach is lacking. In this study, we sought to gain a mechanistic understanding of the relation between antibiotic treatment duration and the prevalence of colonisation with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitalised patients. We constructed 3 stochastic mechanistic models that considered both between- and within-host dynamics of susceptible and resistant gram-negative bacteria, to identify circumstances under which shortening antibiotic duration would lead to reduced resistance carriage. In addition, we performed a meta-analysis of antibiotic treatment duration trials, which monitored resistant gram-negative bacteria carriage as an outcome. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomised controlled trials published from 1 January 2000 to 4 October 2022, which allocated participants to varying durations of systemic antibiotic treatments. Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomised trials. The meta-analysis was performed using logistic regression. Duration of antibiotic treatment and time from administration of antibiotics to surveillance culture were included as independent variables. Both the mathematical modelling and meta-analysis suggested modest reductions in resistance carriage could be achieved by reducing antibiotic treatment duration. The models showed that shortening duration is most effective at reducing resistance carriage in high compared to low transmission settings. For treated individuals, shortening duration is most effective when resistant bacteria grow rapidly under antibiotic selection pressure and decline rapidly when stopping treatment. Importantly, under circumstances whereby administered antibiotics can suppress colonising bacteria, shortening antibiotic treatment may increase the carriage of a particular resistance phenotype. We identified 206 randomised trials, which investigated antibiotic duration. Of these, 5 reported resistant gram-negative bacteria carriage as an outcome and were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis determined that a single additional antibiotic treatment day is associated with a 7% absolute increase in risk of resistance carriage (80% credible interval 3% to 11%). Interpretation of these estimates is limited by the low number of antibiotic duration trials that monitored carriage of resistant gram-negative bacteria, as an outcome, contributing to a large credible interval. In this study, we found both theoretical and empirical evidence that reducing antibiotic treatment duration can reduce resistance carriage, though the mechanistic models also highlighted circumstances under which reducing treatment duration can, perversely, increase resistance. Future antibiotic duration trials should monitor antibiotic-resistant bacteria colonisation as an outcome to better inform antibiotic stewardship policies.

Nosocomial spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been widely reported, but the transmission pathways among patients and healthcare workers (HCWs) are unclear. Identifying the risk factors and drivers for these nosocomial transmissions is critical for infection prevention and control interventions. The main aim of our study was to quantify the relative importance of different transmission pathways of SARS-CoV-2 in the hospital setting. This is an observational cohort study using data from 4 teaching hospitals in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, from January to October 2020. Associations between infectious SARS-CoV-2 individuals and infection risk were quantified using logistic, generalised additive and linear mixed models. Cases were classified as community- or hospital-acquired using likely incubation periods of 3 to 7 days. Of 66,184 patients who were hospitalised during the study period, 920 had a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test within the same period (1.4%). The mean age was 67.9 (±20.7) years, 49.2% were females, and 68.5% were from the white ethnic group. Out of these, 571 patients had their first positive PCR tests while hospitalised (62.1%), and 97 of these occurred at least 7 days after admission (10.5%). Among the 5,596 HCWs, 615 (11.0%) tested positive during the study period using PCR or serological tests. The mean age was 39.5 (±11.1) years, 78.9% were females, and 49.8% were nurses. For susceptible patients, 1 day in the same ward with another patient with hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 was associated with an additional 7.5 infections per 1,000 susceptible patients (95% credible interval (CrI) 5.5 to 9.5/1,000 susceptible patients/day) per day. Exposure to an infectious patient with community-acquired Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) or to an infectious HCW was associated with substantially lower infection risks (2.0/1,000 susceptible patients/day, 95% CrI 1.6 to 2.2). As for HCW infections, exposure to an infectious patient with hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 or to an infectious HCW were both associated with an additional 0.8 infection per 1,000 susceptible HCWs per day (95% CrI 0.3 to 1.6 and 0.6 to 1.0, respectively). Exposure to an infectious patient with community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 was associated with less than half this risk (0.2/1,000 susceptible HCWs/day, 95% CrI 0.2 to 0.2). These assumptions were tested in sensitivity analysis, which showed broadly similar results. The main limitations were that the symptom onset dates and HCW absence days were not available. In this study, we observed that exposure to patients with hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 is associated with a substantial infection risk to both HCWs and other hospitalised patients. Infection control measures to limit nosocomial transmission must be optimised to protect both staff and patients from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Objective To evaluate the relative efficacy of the World Health Organization 2005 campaign (WHO-5) and other interventions to promote hand hygiene among healthcare workers in hospital settings and to summarize associated information on use of resources.Design Systematic review and network meta-analysis.Data sources Medline, Embase, CINAHL, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, Cochrane Library, and the EPOC register (December 2009 to February 2014); studies selected by the same search terms in previous systematic reviews (1980-2009).Review methods Included studies were randomised controlled trials, non-randomised trials, controlled before-after trials, and interrupted time series studies implementing an intervention to improve compliance with hand hygiene among healthcare workers in hospital settings and measuring compliance or appropriate proxies that met predefined quality inclusion criteria. When studies had not used appropriate analytical methods, primary data were re-analysed. Random effects and network meta-analyses were performed on studies reporting directly observed compliance with hand hygiene when they were considered sufficiently homogeneous with regard to interventions and participants. Information on resources required for interventions was extracted and graded into three levels.Results Of 3639 studies retrieved, 41 met the inclusion criteria (six randomised controlled trials, 32 interrupted time series, one non-randomised trial, and two controlled before-after studies). Meta-analysis of two randomised controlled trials showed the addition of goal setting to WHO-5 was associated with improved compliance (pooled odds ratio 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.76; I2=81%). Of 22 pairwise comparisons from interrupted time series, 18 showed stepwise increases in compliance with hand hygiene, and all but four showed a trend for increasing compliance after the intervention. Network meta-analysis indicated considerable uncertainty in the relative effectiveness of interventions, but nonetheless provided evidence that WHO-5 is effective and that compliance can be further improved by adding interventions including goal setting, reward incentives, and accountability. Nineteen studies reported clinical outcomes; data from these were consistent with clinically important reductions in rates of infection resulting from improved hand hygiene for some but not all important hospital pathogens. Reported costs of interventions ranged from $225 to $4669 (£146-£3035; €204-€4229) per 1000 bed days.Conclusion Promotion of hand hygiene with WHO-5 is effective at increasing compliance in healthcare workers. Addition of goal setting, reward incentives, and accountability strategies can lead to further improvements. Reporting of resources required for such interventions remains inadequate.

Approximately 10% of antimicrobials used by humans in low- and middle-income countries are estimated to be substandard or falsified. In addition to their negative impact on morbidity and mortality, they may also be important drivers of antimicrobial resistance. Despite such concerns, our understanding of this relationship remains rudimentary. Substandard and falsified medicines have the potential to either increase or decrease levels of resistance, and here we discuss a range of mechanisms that could drive these changes. Understanding these effects and their relative importance will require an improved understanding of how different drug exposures affect the emergence and spread of resistance and of how the percentage of active pharmaceutical ingredients in substandard and falsified medicines is temporally and spatially distributed. Substandard and falsified medicines are a problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, and effects on antimicrobial resistance development aren’t well understood. Here, the authors discuss mechanisms by which they can increase or decrease levels of resistance and the need for improved data collection and analytical approaches.

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a colossal threat to global health and incurs high economic costs to society. Economic evaluations of antimicrobials and interventions such as diagnostics and vaccines that affect their consumption rarely include the costs of AMR, resulting in sub-optimal policy recommendations. We estimate the economic cost of AMR per antibiotic consumed, stratified by drug class and national income level. Methods The model is comprised of three components: correlation coefficients between human antibiotic consumption and subsequent resistance; the economic costs of AMR for five key pathogens; and consumption data for antibiotic classes driving resistance in these organisms. These were used to calculate the economic cost of AMR per antibiotic consumed for different drug classes, using data from Thailand and the United States (US) to represent low/middle and high-income countries. Results The correlation coefficients between consumption of antibiotics that drive resistance in S. aureus , E. coli, K. pneumoniae , A. baumanii, and P. aeruginosa and resistance rates were 0.37, 0.27, 0.35, 0.45, and 0.52, respectively. The total economic cost of AMR due to resistance in these five pathogens was $0.5 billion and $2.9 billion in Thailand and the US, respectively. The cost of AMR associated with the consumption of one standard unit (SU) of antibiotics ranged from $0.1 for macrolides to $0.7 for quinolones, cephalosporins and broad-spectrum penicillins in the Thai context. In the US context, the cost of AMR per SU of antibiotic consumed ranged from $0.1 for carbapenems to $0.6 for quinolones, cephalosporins and broad spectrum penicillins. Conclusion The economic costs of AMR per antibiotic consumed were considerable, often exceeding their purchase cost. Differences between Thailand and the US were apparent, corresponding with variation in the overall burden of AMR and relative prevalence of different pathogens. Notwithstanding their limitations, use of these estimates in economic evaluations can make better-informed policy recommendations regarding interventions that affect antimicrobial consumption and those aimed specifically at reducing the burden of AMR.

Background Laboratory-based r espiratory pathogen (RP) results are often available too late to influence clinical decisions such as hospitalisation or antibiotic treatment due to time delay in transport of specimens and testing schedules. Ward-based i.e. point of care (POC) testing providing rapid results may alter the clinical management pathway. Methods FilmArray® RP polymerase chain reaction (PCR) systems were placed in three in-patient and out-patient medical areas. Patients presenting with influenza-like illness /upper respiratory tract infection +/− lower RTI were recruited between January–July 2015. FilmArray® POC testing occurred on even days of the month (intervention) or routine, laboratory-based RP PCR testing +/− atypical serology on odd days (control). The primary outcome was length of hospital stay. The secondary outcomes were impact on the use of antimicrobials, readmissions, all-cause mortality, length of ward stay and turn-around time (TAT) (time to result from admission). Results Of 606 eligible patients, 545 (89.9%) were included; 211 in the control arm and 334 in the intervention arm. 20% of control arm patients and 24% of intervention arm patients had an RP detected. POC testing was not associated with the primary outcome measure, length of stay, but reduced the TAT from 39.5 h to 19.0 h, p  < 0.001. Only the prescribing decision differed between study arms, p < 0.001. When antivirals were given, the intervention was associated with a reduction in the median time to the first dose of 36 h and allowed appropriate treatment of mycoplasma infection. Conclusions We found no association between respiratory PCR POC testing and length of stay or most of the secondary outcomes except the antimicrobial prescribing decision. This was probably due to a delay in initiating FilmArray® testing. Despite this, POC testing allowed time-critical antivirals to be given significantly faster, appropriate mycoplasma treatment and results were available considerably faster than routine, laboratory-based testing. Ward-staff of all grades performed POC testing without difficulty suggesting potential use across many divergent healthcare settings. Further studies evaluating the implementation of rapid respiratory PCR POC testing and the effect on length of stay and antimicrobial use are required. Trial registration ISRCTN10470967 , Retrospectively Registered, 30/6/2015.

Intensive care units (ICUs) are high-risk areas for transmission of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, but no controlled study has tested the effect of rapid screening and isolation of carriers on transmission in settings with best-standard precautions. We assessed interventions to reduce colonisation and transmission of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria in European ICUs. We did this study in three phases at 13 ICUs. After a 6 month baseline period (phase 1), we did an interrupted time series study of universal chlorhexidine body-washing combined with hand hygiene improvement for 6 months (phase 2), followed by a 12–15 month cluster randomised trial (phase 3). ICUs were randomly assigned by computer generated randomisation schedule to either conventional screening (chromogenic screening for meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus [MRSA] and vancomycin-resistant enterococci [VRE]) or rapid screening (PCR testing for MRSA and VRE and chromogenic screening for highly resistant Enterobacteriaceae [HRE]); with contact precautions for identified carriers. The primary outcome was acquisition of resistant bacteria per 100 patient-days at risk, for which we calculated step changes and changes in trends after the introduction of each intervention. We assessed acquisition by microbiological surveillance and analysed it with a multilevel Poisson segmented regression model. We compared screening groups with a likelihood ratio test that combined step changes and changes to trend. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00976638. Seven ICUs were assigned to rapid screening and six to conventional screening. Mean hand hygiene compliance improved from 52% in phase 1 to 69% in phase 2, and 77% in phase 3. Median proportions of patients receiving chlorhexidine body-washing increased from 0% to 100% at the start of phase 2. For trends in acquisition of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, weekly incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0·976 (0·954–0·999) for phase 2 and 1·015 (0·998–1·032) for phase 3. For step changes, weekly IRR was 0·955 (0·676–1·348) for phase 2 and 0·634 (0·349–1·153) for phase 3. The decrease in trend in phase 2 was largely caused by changes in acquisition of MRSA (weekly IRR 0·925, 95% CI 0·890–0·962). Acquisition was lower in the conventional screening group than in the rapid screening group, but did not differ significantly (p=0·06). Improved hand hygiene plus unit-wide chlorhexidine body-washing reduced acquisition of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, particularly MRSA. In the context of a sustained high level of compliance to hand hygiene and chlorhexidine bathings, screening and isolation of carriers do not reduce acquisition rates of multidrug-resistant bacteria, whether or not screening is done with rapid testing or conventional testing. European Commission.

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is a global public health crisis. Evaluating intervention impact requires accurate estimates of how the AMR burden will change over time, given likely demographic shifts. This study aimed to provide an estimate of future AMR burden in Europe, investigating resistance variation by age and sex and the impact of interventions to achieve the proposed United Nations (UN) political declaration targets. Using data from 12,807,473 bloodstream infection (BSI) susceptibility tests from routine surveillance in Europe, we estimate age- and sex-specific rates of change in BSI incidence for the 8 bacteria included in European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) surveillance over 2015-2019. This was used to project incidence rates by age and sex for 2022-2050 and, with demographic projections, to generate estimates of BSI burden (2022-2050). Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted across 38 bacteria-antibiotic combinations to the 2015-2019 resistance proportion of BSI by year and at the country-level with and without age and sex disaggregation. Inputting the incidence estimates into the \"agesex\" and \"base\" model, respectively, we sampled 1,000 model estimates of resistant BSI burden by age, sex, and country to determine the importance of age and sex disaggregation. We explored Intervention scenarios consisting of a 1, 5, or 20 per 100,000 per year reduction in infection incidence rate of change or 5 per 100,000 per year reduction in those older than 64 years. Overall, in Europe, BSI incidence rates are predicted to increase more in men than women across 6 of the 8 bacteria (Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Enterococcus faecium were the exception) and are projected to increase more dramatically in older age groups (74+ years) but stabilise or decline in younger age groups. We project huge country-level variation in resistance burden to 2050, with opposing trends in different countries for the same bacteria-antibiotic combinations (e.g., aminoglycoside-resistant Acinetobacter spp. ranged from a relative difference of 0.34 to 15.38 by 2030). Not accounting for age and sex results in differing resistance burden projections, with 47% of bacteria-antibiotic combinations estimated to have fewer resistant BSIs by 2030 compared to a model with age and sex. Not including age or sex resistance patterns results in fewer male cases for 76% (29/38) of the combinations compared to 11% (4/38) for women. We also saw age-based associations in projections with bigger differences at older ages. Achieving a 10% reduction in resistant BSI incidence by 2030 (equivalent to the UN 10% mortality target) was possible only for 68.4% (26/38) of bacteria-antibiotic combinations even with large reductions in BSI incidence rate of change of -20 per 100,000 per year. In some cases, a 10% reduction was followed by a rebound, with the resistant BSI burden exceeding previous levels by 2050. Limitations include reliance on European data and current trends, and the exclusion of factors such as comorbidities or ethnicity. Including country-specific, age- and sex-specific resistance levels alongside projected demographic shifts has a large impact on resistant BSI burden projections in Europe to 2030. Reducing this AMR infection burden by 10% will require substantial reductions in infection incidence rates.

For 475 ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-Ec), and 171 ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-Kp) collected from human carriers, the human-polluted (hp)-environment, and food: (i) to compare the antimicrobial resistance gene (ARG) content, and (ii) to assess clonal relationships between human and non-human isolates. Two prospective multicenter cohorts were assessed: colonized hospitalized index-subjects and household contacts, and long-term care facility (LTCF) residents. Additionally, linked hp-environment and food samples were collected. Presence of ARGs were assessed using pairwise comparisons and proportional similarity index (PSI). Clonal relationships were assessed using cgMLST distance visualizations and maximum likelihood phylogeny. ESBL-Ec and ESBL-Kp co-occurred in 14/65 households, 3/6 LTCFs, and in 33/202 of ESBL-positive participants. Thirty-nine percent of detected ARG types were found in both species (36/93). Frequencies of beta-lactamase, ESBL, aminoglycoside, and sulfonamide ARG types from human ESBL-Ec and ESBL-Kp overlapped considerably: PSIs 0.59-0.75, and were equal or higher compared to the overlap between ESBL-Ec from humans and food isolates: PSIs 0.33-0.72. Isolates from humans and the hp-environment were frequently clonally related, indicating human contamination of the environment. Links with food isolates were observed less frequently. For ESBL-Ec both interregional and regional clonal dissemination were observed, while for ESBL-Kp clonal dissemination was mainly regional. ESBL-Ec and ESBL-Kp from human carriage showed considerable overlap in ARG content. Furthermore, clonal links were observed frequently between humans and hp-environment, and with lower frequency between humans and food. These findings are consistent with human-to-human transmission as an important driver of ARG spread in humans.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) affect most impoverished communities in developing countries, like Myanmar in Southeast Asia. NTDs have been understudied and underreported in Myanmar. A systematic review of published and grey literature (1900-2023) on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in Myanmar was conducted. The literature search included five international databases: PubMed, EMBASE, Ovid Global Health, and Web of Science Core Collection and one national database: the Myanmar Central Biomedical Library (locally published papers and grey literature). The selection criteria included articles with all types of study designs of current or previous infections conducted in humans, that reported NTDs, recognised by WHO, US CDC, and listed in PLoS NTDs. We included melioidosis and rickettsioses which we consider also meet the definition of an NTD. A total of 5941 records were retrieved and screened, of which, 672 (11%) met the selection criteria and were included in this review. Of the included articles, 449 (65%) were published after 2000 and 369 (55%) were from two regions (Yangon and Mandalay) of Myanmar. Of the included articles, 238 (35%) reported bacterial NTDs, 212 (32%) viral NTDs, 153 (23%) helminth NTDs, 25 (4%) protozoal NTDs and 39 (6%) reported more than one aetiology. Based on reported frequency in descending order, the bacterial NTDs were leprosy, Escherichia coli enteritis, salmonellosis, cholera, shigellosis, melioidosis, leptospirosis and rickettsioses; the viral NTDs were dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) infection; the protozoal NTDs were amoebiasis, giardiasis and leishmaniasis, and the helminth NTDs were ascariasis, trichuriasis, hookworm disease, filariasis and strongyloidiasis. This review summarises NTDs reported in Myanmar over the past 100 years. The findings suggest that most NTDs are likely to be under reported, especially from the majority of the country which is far from academic centres. Research capacity building together with strengthening of laboratory systems would lead to better understanding of the true burden of NTDs in Myanmar. PROSPERO registration ID: CRD42018092627.