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For large herbivores living in highly dynamic environments, maintaining range fidelity has the potential to facilitate the exploitation of predictable resources while minimising energy expenditure. We evaluate this expectation by examining how the seasonal range fidelity of African elephants ( Loxodonta africana ) in the Kruger National Park, South Africa is affected by spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions (vegetation quality, temperature, rainfall, and fire). Eight-years of GPS collar data were used to analyse the similarity in seasonal utilisation distributions for thirteen family groups. Elephants exhibited remarkable consistency in their seasonal range fidelity across the study with rainfall emerging as a key driver of space-use. Within years, high range fidelity from summer to autumn and from autumn to winter was driven by increased rainfall and the retention of high-quality vegetation. Across years, sequential autumn seasons demonstrated the lowest levels of range fidelity due to inter-annual variability in the wet to dry season transition, resulting in unpredictable resource availability. Understanding seasonal space use is important for determining the effects of future variability in environmental conditions on elephant populations, particularly when it comes to management interventions. Indeed, over the coming decades climate change is predicted to drive greater variability in rainfall and elevated temperatures in African savanna ecosystems. The impacts of climate change also present particular challenges for elephants living in fragmented or human-transformed habitats where the opportunity for seasonal range shifts are greatly constrained.

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

Over recent decades, the abundance and geographic ranges of wild ungulate species have expanded in many parts of Europe, including the UK. Populations are managed to mitigate their ecological impacts using interventions, such as shooting, fencing and administering contraception. Predicting how target species will respond to interventions is critical for developing sustainable, effective and efficient management strategies. However, the quantity and quality of evidence of the effects of interventions on ungulate species is unclear. To address this, we systematically mapped research on the effects of population management on wild ungulate species resident in the UK. We searched four bibliographic databases, Google Scholar and nine organisational websites using search terms tested with a library of 30 relevant articles. Worldwide published peer-reviewed articles were considered, supplemented by 'grey' literature from UK-based sources. Three reviewers identified and screened articles for eligibility at title, abstract and full-text levels, based on predefined criteria. Data and metadata were extracted and summarised in a narrative synthesis supported by structured graphical matrices. A total of 123 articles were included in the systematic map. Lethal interventions were better represented (85%, n = 105) than non-lethal interventions (25%, n = 25). Outcomes related to demography and behaviour were reported in 95% of articles (n = 117), whereas effects on health, physiology and morphology were studied in only 11% of articles (n = 14). Well-studied species included wild pigs (n = 58), red deer (n = 28) and roe deer (n = 23). Evidence for the effects of population management on wild ungulate species is growing but currently limited and unevenly distributed across intervention types, outcomes and species. Priorities for primary research include: species responses to non-lethal interventions, the side-effects of shooting and studies on sika deer and Chinese muntjac. Shooting is the only intervention for which sufficient evidence exists for systematic review or meta-analysis.

Human activities in protected areas can affect wildlife populations in a similar manner to predation risk, causing increases in movement and vigilance, shifts in habitat use and changes in group size. Nevertheless, recent evidence indicates that in certain situations ungulate species may actually utilize areas associated with higher levels of human presence as a potential refuge from disturbance-sensitive predators. We now use four-years of behavioral activity budget data collected from pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and elk (Cervus elephus) in Grand Teton National Park, USA to test whether predictable patterns of human presence can provide a shelter from predatory risk. Daily behavioral scans were conducted along two parallel sections of road that differed in traffic volume--with the main Teton Park Road experiencing vehicle use that was approximately thirty-fold greater than the River Road. At the busier Teton Park Road, both species of ungulate engaged in higher levels of feeding (27% increase in the proportion of pronghorn feeding and 21% increase for elk), lower levels of alert behavior (18% decrease for pronghorn and 9% decrease for elk) and formed smaller groups. These responses are commonly associated with reduced predatory threat. Pronghorn also exhibited a 30% increase in the proportion of individuals moving at the River Road as would be expected under greater exposure to predation risk. Our findings concur with the 'predator shelter hypothesis', suggesting that ungulates in GTNP use human presence as a potential refuge from predation risk, adjusting their behavior accordingly. Human activity has the potential to alter predator-prey interactions and drive trophic-mediated effects that could ultimately impact ecosystem function and biodiversity.

Seabirds are often considered sentinels of ocean health, making dietary studies crucial not only for understanding their ecology and marine trophic webs, but also for informing conservation efforts and detecting ecosystem changes that may threaten biodiversity. However, determining the diet of wide‐ranging, pelagic species is challenging, and there is a series of limitations associated with current techniques. In this study, we investigated buccal swabbing and DNA metabarcoding as a combined method to determine the diet of Manx shearwaters (Puffinus puffinus) and northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) during different stages of the breeding season. We detected 14 fish taxa, with prey DNA successfully amplified in 68% of Manx shearwater samples and 28% of northern fulmar samples. We suggest that differences in amplification success between sample types are due to the time elapsed between feeding and swabbing when sampling various breeding stages. We present the first species‐level dietary data for chick‐provisioning Manx shearwaters and reveal a potential reliance on calorie‐dense European sprat (Sprattus sprattus). In addition to identifying two fish taxa not previously documented as northern fulmar prey, our results highlight the continued importance of fishery discard species in their diet during the breeding season. This study suggests both species may be sensitive to shifts in prey availability and fishing practices and demonstrates the utility of buccal swabbing for DNA metabarcoding as a minimally invasive tool for dietary analysis in pelagic seabirds. Determining the diet of wide‐ranging, pelagic seabirds is challenging. In this study, we investigated buccal swabbing and DNA metabarcoding to describe the diet of Manx shearwaters (Puffinus puffinus) and northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis). We reveal a potential dietary specialism in shearwaters and highlight the continued importance of fishery discard species in the diet of fulmars.

Predictive models can improve the efficiency of wildlife management by guiding actions at the local, landscape and regional scales. In recent decades, a vast range of modelling techniques have been developed to predict species distributions and patterns of population spread. However, data limitations often constrain the precision and biological realism of models, which make them less useful for supporting decision-making. Complex models can also be challenging to evaluate, and the results are often difficult to interpret for wildlife management practitioners. There is therefore a need to develop techniques that are appropriately robust, but also accessible to a range of end users. We developed a hybrid species distribution model that utilises commonly available presence-only distribution data and minimal demographic information to predict the spread of roe deer (Capreolus caprelous) in Great Britain. We take a novel approach to representing the environment in the model by constraining the size of habitat patches to the home-range area of an individual. Population dynamics are then simplified to a set of generic rules describing patch occupancy. The model is constructed and evaluated using data from a populated region (England and Scotland) and applied to predict regional-scale patterns of spread in a novel region (Wales). It is used to forecast the relative timing of colonisation events and identify important areas for targeted surveillance and management. The study demonstrates the utility of presence-only data for predicting the spread of animal species and describes a method of reducing model complexity while retaining important environmental detail and biological realism. Our modelling approach provides a much-needed opportunity for users without specialist expertise in computer coding to leverage limited data and make robust, easily interpretable predictions of spread to inform proactive population management. Capreolus capreolus, hybrid model, mechanistic, population management, presence-only data, range expansion, spatially explicit spread, wildlife management Applied ecology, Biogeography, Conservation ecology, Landscape ecology, Spatial ecology

The transmission of reliable information between individuals is crucial for group-living animals. This is particularly the case for cognitively advanced mammals with overlapping generations that acquire detailed social and ecological knowledge over long lifetimes. Here, we directly compare the ecological knowledge of elephants from two populations, with radically different developmental histories, to test whether profound social disruption affects their ability to assess predatory threat. Matriarchs (≤50 years of age) and their family groups received playbacks of three lions versus a single lion roaring. The family groups in the natural Amboseli population (Kenya) reliably assessed the greater predatory threat presented by three lions roaring versus one. However, in the socially disrupted Pilanesberg population (South Africa), no fine-scale distinctions were made between the numbers of roaring lions. Our results suggest that the removal of older and more experienced individuals in highly social species, such as elephants, is likely to impact the acquisition of ecological knowledge by younger group members, particularly through the lack of opportunity for social learning and cultural transmission of knowledge. This is likely to be exacerbated by the trauma experienced by juvenile elephants that witnessed the culling of family members and were translocated to new reserves. With increasing levels of anthropogenic disturbance, it is important that conservation practitioners consider the crucial role that population structure and knowledge transfer plays in the functioning and resilience of highly social and long-lived species.

Monitoring trends in abundance of pinnipeds typically involves counting seals at terrestrial haul-out sites during the breeding season. Counts of seals made at other times of the year are typically lower; however, it is often unknown whether this is because fewer animals are present or whether lower counts simply reflect a reduction in haul-out probability. Here we illustrate how photo-identification data from an individual-based study of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) can be used to estimate seasonal variation in abundance and site fidelity. Monthly data collected over a two-year period were analyzed using a mark-recapture mark-resight model accounting for individuals transitioning between observable and unobservable states. Levels of site fidelity were high throughout the year and abundance estimates showed no seasonal pattern. This suggests that individual seals used haul-out sites to the same extent throughout the year, and that peaks in counts during the breeding season are a result of seasonal changes in haul-out probability. The results of this study have implications for understanding population sub-structuring, gene flow and disease spread.

Context: Deer (Cervidae) populations are increasing in many global regions, leading to concerns about their impacts on temperate forests. Advancing evidence‐based management requires a detailed understanding of the dietary habits of deer and how these are shaped by resource availability. Methodology: We studied the diet of fallow deer (Dama dama) in North Wales (United Kingdom), using faecal DNA metabarcoding. Samples were collected monthly from three woodlands during 2019–2021. Tree surveys and seasonal ground flora surveys were conducted in these woodlands and seven additional woodlands. Preference analyses were used to assess the consumption of plant taxa relative to their availability. Results: The fallow deer consumed high proportions of bramble (Rubus fruticosus agg.) across the seasons, especially in the winter months. Diet diversity was significantly lower in winter compared to the other seasons, suggesting that the deer were bulk foraging on a widely available, predictable resource to conserve energy during winter. Grasses did not form a major component of the diet in any season. The preference analysis showed that spatially clustered woody taxa (e.g. Betula sp., Corylus sp. and Fraxinus sp.) occurred less often than expected in the diet, while widespread woody species occurred in the diet more often than expected (e.g. Rosa sp., Prunus sp. and Quercus sp.). Practical implication: The expansion of deer populations in the United Kingdom has occurred alongside the recovery and maturation of degraded or planted forests since the middle of the 20th century. Despite reduced light availability in these closed‐canopy forests and increased herbivory pressure, bramble has remained a dominant understory plant compared to other less herbivory‐tolerant plant species. Perhaps as a consequence, bramble has become the winter survival resource for this fallow deer population, remaining a prominent dietary component throughout the year. With increasing disturbance from extreme weather and tree diseases leading to a more open canopy structure, bramble cover is set to increase in European forests, which could support further expansion of deer populations. As we work to expand tree cover and enhance forest resilience and biodiversity, we should seek to understand the dynamic interactions of increasing deer populations with rapidly changing treescapes. A DNA metabarcoding study of the diet of fallow deer (Dama dama) in North Wales has revealed a dominance of bramble Rubus fruticosus agg.) in the diet across seasons. The diet was significantly less diverse in winter compared to other seasons. As we work to expand tree cover and enhance woodland resilience and biodiversity in the United Kingdom amid climate change and emerging diseases, we should seek to understand the dynamic interactions of increasing deer populations with rapidly changing treescapes.

Estimates of temporal variation in demographic rates are critical for identifying drivers of population change and supporting conservation. However, for inconspicuous wide-ranging species, births may be missed and fecundity rates underestimated. We address this issue using photo-identification data and a novel robust design multistate model to investigate changes in bottlenose dolphin fecundity and calf survival. The model allows for uncertainty in breeding status, and seasonal effects. The best model estimated an increase in the proportion of females with newborn calves from 0.16 (95% CI = 0.11–0.24) in 2001 to 0.28 (95% CI = 0.22–0.36) in 2016. First year calf survival also increased over this period from 0.78 (95% CI = 0.53–0.92) to 0.93 (95% CI = 0.82–0.98). Second year calf survival remained lower, but also showed an increase from 0.32 (95% CI = 0.19–0.48) to 0.55 (95% CI = 0.44–0.65). Females with newborn calves had a slightly higher mortality than those with older calves, but further work is required to evaluate potential costs of reproduction. This study presents a rare example of empirical evidence of a positive trend in reproduction and survival for a cetacean population using a Marine Protected Area.