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BackgroundThe global epidemiological shift of disease burden towards long-term conditions means understanding long-term outcomes of cardiovascular disease is increasingly important. More people are surviving stroke to experience its long-term consequences, but outcomes in people living more >10 years after stroke have not been described in detail.MethodsData were collected for the population-based South London Stroke Register, with participants followed up annually until death. Outcomes were survival, disability, activity, cognitive impairment, quality of life, depression and anxiety.FindingsOf 2625 people having first-ever stroke, 262 (21%) survived to 15 years. By 15 years, 61% (95% CI 55% to 67%) of the survivors were male, with a median age of stroke onset of 58 years (IQR 48–66). 87% of the 15-year survivors were living at home and 33.8% (26.2% to 42.4%) had mild disability, 14.3% (9.2% to 21.4%) moderate disability and 15.0% (9.9% to 22.3%) severe disability. The prevalence of disability increased with time but 1 in 10 of the 15-year survivors had lived with moderate-severe disability since their stroke. At 15 years, the prevalence of cognitive impairment was 30.0% (19.5% to 43.1%), depression 39.1% (30.9% to 47.9%) and anxiety 34.9% (27.0% to 43.8%), and survivors reported greater loss of physical than mental quality of life.ConclusionsOne in five people live at least 15 years after a stroke and poor functional, cognitive and psychological outcomes affect a substantial proportion of these long-term survivors. As the global population of individuals with cardiovascular long-term conditions grows, research and health services will need to increasingly focus on preventing and managing the long-term consequences of stroke.

Although stroke is acknowledged as a long-term condition, population estimates of outcomes longer term are lacking. Such estimates would be useful for planning health services and developing research that might ultimately improve outcomes. This burden of disease study provides population-based estimates of outcomes with a focus on disability, cognition, and psychological outcomes up to 10 y after initial stroke event in a multi-ethnic European population. Data were collected from the population-based South London Stroke Register, a prospective population-based register documenting all first in a lifetime strokes since 1 January 1995 in a multi-ethnic inner city population. The outcomes assessed are reported as estimates of need and included disability (Barthel Index <15), inactivity (Frenchay Activities Index <15), cognitive impairment (Abbreviated Mental Test < 8 or Mini-Mental State Exam <24), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale >10), and mental and physical domain scores of the Medical Outcomes Study 12-item short form (SF-12) health survey. Estimates were stratified by age, gender, and ethnicity, and age-adjusted using the standard European population. Plots of outcome estimates over time were constructed to examine temporal trends and sociodemographic differences. Between 1995 and 2006, 3,373 first-ever strokes were registered: 20%-30% of survivors had a poor outcome over 10 y of follow-up. The highest rate of disability was observed 7 d after stroke and remained at around 110 per 1,000 stroke survivors from 3 mo to 10 y. Rates of inactivity and cognitive impairment both declined up to 1 y (280/1,000 and 180/1,000 survivors, respectively); thereafter rates of inactivity remained stable till year eight, then increased, whereas rates of cognitive impairment fluctuated till year eight, then increased. Anxiety and depression showed some fluctuation over time, with a rate of 350 and 310 per 1,000 stroke survivors, respectively. SF-12 scores showed little variation from 3 mo to 10 y after stroke. Inactivity was higher in males at all time points, and in white compared to black stroke survivors, although black survivors reported better outcomes in the SF-12 physical domain. No other major differences were observed by gender or ethnicity. Increased age was associated with higher rates of disability, inactivity, and cognitive impairment. Between 20% and 30% of stroke survivors have a poor range of outcomes up to 10 y after stroke. Such epidemiological data demonstrate the sociodemographic groups that are most affected longer term and should be used to develop longer term management strategies that reduce the significant poor outcomes of this group, for whom effective interventions are currently elusive. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Previous studies have found low use of anticoagulation prior to stroke, in people with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study examined data on patients with AF-related stroke from a population-based stroke register, and sought to examine changes in management of AF prior to stroke, and reasons for suboptimal treatment, in those who were known to be at a high risk of stroke. The South London Stroke Register (SLSR) is an ongoing population-based register recording first-in-a-lifetime stroke. Trends in the prevalence of AF, and antithrombotic medication prescribed before the stroke, were investigated from 1995 to 2014. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the factors associated with appropriate management. Of the 5041 patients on the register, 816 (16.2%) were diagnosed with AF before their stroke. AF related stroke increased substantially among Black Carribean and Black African patients, comprising 5% of the overall cohort in 1995-1998, increasing to 25% by 2011-2014 (p<0.001). Anticoagulant prescription in AF patients at high-risk of stroke (CHADS2 score [> = 2]) increased from 9% (1995-1998) to 30% (2011-2014) (p<0.001). Antiplatelet prescription was more commonly prescribed throughout all time periods (43% to 64% of high-risk patients.) Elderly patients (>65) were significantly less likely to be prescribed an anticoagulant, with ethnicity, gender and deprivation showing no association with anticoagulation. Most AF-related strokes occurred in people who could have been predicted to be at high risk before their stroke, yet were not prescribed optimal preventative treatment. The elderly,despite being at highest stroke risk, were rarely prescribed anticoagulants.

Background and aims Socioeconomic deprivation (SED) is associated with increased mortality after stroke, however, its associations with stroke care remains uncertain. We assessed the SED impacts on acute and long-term stroke care, and examined their ethnic differences and secular trends. Methods We used data from 4202 patients with first-ever stroke (mean age 70.1 years, 50.4% male, 20.4% black), collected by a population-based stroke register in South London, England from 1995 to 2010. Carstairs deprivation score was measured for each patient, taking the 1st as the least deprived and the 2nd to 5th quintiles as SED, and was related to 20 indicators of care in multivariate logistic regression models. Results Patients with SED had 29% and 35% statistically significant reductions in odds of being admitted to hospital and having swallow tests, respectively. The multivariate adjusted odds ratio (OR) for receiving five indicators of acute stroke care was 0.81 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.92). It was 0.76 (0.58 to 0.99) in black patients and 0.82 (0.71 to 0.96) in white patients; and 0.70 (0.58 to 0.84) in patients with stroke occurring before 2001 and 0.89 (0.75 to 1.05) since 2001. SED was further associated with receipt of some stroke care during 5 years of follow-up, including atrial fibrillation medication (0.63, 0.48 to 0.83), and in black patients physiotherapy and occupational therapy (0.32, 0.11 to 0.92). Conclusions Stroke healthcare inequalities in England exist for some important indicators, although overall it has improved over time. The impact of SED may be stronger in black patients than in white patients. Further efforts are required to achieve stroke care equality.

Previous studies have found low use of anticoagulation prior to stroke, in people with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study examined data on patients with AF-related stroke from a population-based stroke register, and sought to examine changes in management of AF prior to stroke, and reasons for suboptimal treatment, in those who were known to be at a high risk of stroke. The South London Stroke Register (SLSR) is an ongoing population-based register recording first-in-a-lifetime stroke. Trends in the prevalence of AF, and antithrombotic medication prescribed before the stroke, were investigated from 1995 to 2014. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the factors associated with appropriate management. Of the 5041 patients on the register, 816 (16.2%) were diagnosed with AF before their stroke. AF related stroke increased substantially among Black Carribean and Black African patients, comprising 5% of the overall cohort in 1995-1998, increasing to 25% by 2011-2014 (p = 2]) increased from 9% (1995-1998) to 30% (2011-2014) (p65) were significantly less likely to be prescribed an anticoagulant, with ethnicity, gender and deprivation showing no association with anticoagulation. Most AF-related strokes occurred in people who could have been predicted to be at high risk before their stroke, yet were not prescribed optimal preventative treatment. The elderly,despite being at highest stroke risk, were rarely prescribed anticoagulants.

Previous studies have found low use of anticoagulation prior to stroke, in people with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study examined data on patients with AF-related stroke from a population-based stroke register, and sought to examine changes in management of AF prior to stroke, and reasons for suboptimal treatment, in those who were known to be at a high risk of stroke. The South London Stroke Register (SLSR) is an ongoing population-based register recording first-in-a-lifetime stroke. Trends in the prevalence of AF, and antithrombotic medication prescribed before the stroke, were investigated from 1995 to 2014. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the factors associated with appropriate management. Of the 5041 patients on the register, 816 (16.2%) were diagnosed with AF before their stroke. AF related stroke increased substantially among Black Carribean and Black African patients, comprising 5% of the overall cohort in 1995-1998, increasing to 25% by 2011-2014 (p = 2]) increased from 9% (1995-1998) to 30% (2011-2014) (p65) were significantly less likely to be prescribed an anticoagulant, with ethnicity, gender and deprivation showing no association with anticoagulation. Most AF-related strokes occurred in people who could have been predicted to be at high risk before their stroke, yet were not prescribed optimal preventative treatment. The elderly,despite being at highest stroke risk, were rarely prescribed anticoagulants.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of postnatal dexamethasone treatment on the neonatal unit on the school age lung function of very prematurely born children. Children born prior to 29 weeks of gestational age had been entered into a randomised trial of two methods of neonatal ventilation (United Kingdom Oscillation Study). They had comprehensive lung function measurements at 11 to 14 years of age. One hundred and seventy-nine children born at a mean gestational age of 26.9 (range 23-28) weeks were assessed at 11 to 14 years; 50 had received postnatal dexamethasone. Forced expiratory flow at 75% (FEF75), 50%, 25% and 25-75% of the expired vital capacity, forced expiratory volume in one second, peak expiratory flow and forced vital capacity and lung volumes including total lung capacity and residual volume were assessed. Lung function outcomes were compared between children who had and had not been exposed to dexamethasone after adjustment for neonatal factors using linear mixed effects regression. After adjustment for confounders all the mean spirometry results were between 0.38 and 0.87 standard deviations lower in those exposed to dexamethasone compared to the unexposed. For example, the mean FEF75 z-score was 0.53 lower (95% CI 0.21 to 0.85). The mean lung function was lower as the number of courses of dexamethasone increased. In conclusion, postnatal dexamethasone exposure was associated with lower mean lung function at school age in children born extremely prematurely. Our results suggest the larger the cumulative dose the greater the adverse effect on lung function at follow-up.

Identifying which young people living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) are less likely to engage in care is crucial to allow targeted interventions to support them to attend clinic. We adapted an existing Engagement in Care (EIC) algorithm for adults with HIV in England, for use in young people. We applied it to data from young people with PHIV in the Adolescents and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort. The algorithm predicts the timing of the next scheduled clinic visit, within 1–6 months of current visit, based on routine clinical data. Follow-up was 12-months from AALPHI baseline interview. Each person-month was classified as engaged in care or not. Logistic regression models (allowing for clustered data) were used to explore baseline characteristics associated with being engaged in care, adjusting for a priori variables (time from interview, sex, age, ethnicity, country of birth). Potential characteristics were across 7 domains: sociodemographic; risk behaviour practices; mental health; cognition; clinic setting; HIV management and experience; and HIV clinical markers. Of 316 young people, 187(59%) were female, 271(86%) of black ethnicity and 184(58%) born abroad. At baseline, median [IQR] age was 17[15–18] years, and 202(69%) had viral load ≤50 copies/ml(c/mL). 87% of 3,585 person-months were classified as engaged in care. Characteristics independently associated with poorer odds of being engaged in care were: Asian/mixed/other ethnicity, vs. black ethnicity (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25, 0.78, p = 0.02); ever self-harmed, vs. not (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.32, 0.95, p = 0.03); on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and self-assessed bad/not so good adherence (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.25, 0.84) or not on ART (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.64, 1.21) vs. on ART and good/excellent adherence (p = 0.04)); baseline VL>50c/mL, vs VL≤50c/mL (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30, 0.75, p = 0.002). These characteristics can help identify individuals requiring enhanced support to maintain service engagement.

Background:Data estimating the risk of, and predictors for, long-term stroke recurrence are lacking.Methods:Data were collected from the population-based South London Stroke Register. Patients were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Kaplan–Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the cumulative risk of and predictors for first stroke recurrence. Variables analysed included sociodemographic factors, stroke subtype (defined as cerebral infarction, intracerebral haemorrhage and subarachnoid haemorrhage), stroke severity markers and prior-to-stroke risk factors.Results:Between 1995 and 2004, 2874 patients with first-ever stroke were included. The mean follow-up period was 2.9 years. During 8311 person-years of follow-up, 303 recurrent events occurred. The cumulative risk of stroke recurrence at 1 year, 5 years and 10 years was 7.1%, 16.2% and 24.5% respectively. No differences in stroke recurrence were noted between the stroke subtypes. Factors increasing the risk of recurrence at 1 year were previous myocardial infarction (HR 1.73; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.78) and atrial fibrillation (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.04 to 4.27); at 5 years, hypertension (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.99) and atrial fibrillation (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.29 to 2.49); and at 10 years, older age (p = 0.04), and hypertension (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.82), myocardial infarction (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.11) and atrial fibrillation (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.09).Conclusions:Very-long-term risk of stroke recurrence is substantial. Different predictors for stroke recurrence were identified throughout the follow-up period. Risk factors prior to initial stroke have a significant role in predicting stroke recurrence up to 10 years.