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Differences in population trends across a species' breeding range are ultimately linked to variation in demographic rates. In small songbirds, demographic rates related to fecundity typically have strong effects on population trends. Populations of a forest songbird, the wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, have been declining in many but not all regions of the European breeding range. We investigated if clutch size, hatching rate, nest survival and number of fledglings vary across Europe, and if nest survival is related to differences in the regionally dominant nest predator class (birds versus mammals). From 2009 to 2020, we monitored 1896 nests and used cameras at a subsample of 645 nests in six study regions: the United Kingdom (mid‐Wales, Dartmoor, the New Forest), Germany (Hessen), Switzerland (Jura mountains) and Poland (Białowieża National Park). Number of fledglings was lowest in the New Forest (1.43 ± CI 0.23), intermediate in Jura (2.41 ± 0.31) and Białowieża (2.26 ± 0.24) and highest in mid‐Wales (3.02 ± 0.48) and Dartmoor (2.92 ± 0.32). The reason for low reproductive success in the New Forest, Jura and Białowieża was low nest survival, and large clutch sizes in Białowieża did not compensate for high nest losses. High reproductive success in mid‐Wales and Dartmoor was due to high nest survival and large clutch sizes. Overall predation rates were similar everywhere despite variation between the regions in the dominant nest predator class. Unsuccessful nests in mid‐Wales were mainly predated by birds; in Dartmoor, the New Forest, Hessen and Jura similarly by birds and mammals; and in Białowieża exclusively by mammals. Regional reproductive success does not match the population trends recently reported for the wood warbler in the six study regions (i.e. high reproduction ≠ positive trend). Annual survival may be a decisive factor, but it is difficult to quantify for a nomadic species such as the wood warbler that rarely returns to the same breeding locations.

Nest predation is the primary cause of nest failure in most ground‐nesting bird species. Investigations of relationships between nest predation rate and habitat usually pool different predator species. However, such relationships likely depend on the specific predator involved, partly because habitat requirements vary among predator species. Pooling may therefore impair our ability to identify conservation‐relevant relationships between nest predation rate and habitat. We investigated predator‐specific nest predation rates in the forest‐dependent, ground‐nesting wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix in relation to forest area and forest edge complexity at two spatial scales and to the composition of the adjacent habitat matrix. We used camera traps at 559 nests to identify nest predators in five study regions across Europe. When analyzing predation data pooled across predator species, nest predation rate was positively related to forest area at the local scale (1000 m around nest), and higher where proportion of grassland in the adjacent habitat matrix was high but arable land low. Analyses by each predator species revealed variable relationships between nest predation rates and habitat. At the local scale, nest predation by most predators was higher where forest area was large. At the landscape scale (10,000 m around nest), nest predation by buzzards Buteo buteo was high where forest area was small. Predation by pine martens Martes martes was high where edge complexity at the landscape scale was high. Predation by badgers Meles meles was high where the matrix had much grassland but little arable land. Our results suggest that relationships between nest predation rates and habitat can depend on the predator species involved and may differ from analyses disregarding predator identity. Predator‐specific nest predation rates, and their relationships to habitat at different spatial scales, should be considered when assessing the impact of habitat change on avian nesting success. Studies about relationships between nest predation rate and habitat usually pool different predator species. However, such relationships likely depend on the specific predator involved, partly because habitat requirements vary among predator species. We show that accounting for predator species identity reveals variable relationships between nest predation rate and habitat in wood warblers.

IntroductionThis retrospective analysis compares the probability of target attainment (PTA) for ceftriaxone, levofloxacin and ceftaroline fosamil against Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae in a representative patient population with moderate-to-severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).MethodsPublished pharmacokinetic (PK) models for levofloxacin and ceftriaxone, and an existing model for ceftaroline, were used with standard dosage regimens for simulating individual PK data with covariates representative of patients with CAP (5000 patients/drug regimen). PTA for clinically relevant pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) targets was calculated from steady state PK profiles for a range of minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs). Cumulative fractions of response (CFRs) were also calculated using MIC distributions from 2012 to 2017 global surveillance data.ResultsCeftaroline fosamil (600 mg q12 h) achieved > 90% PTA at all exposure targets for each pathogen at European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST)/Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) susceptibility breakpoints, and CFRs were > 99%. Ceftriaxone, but not levofloxacin, achieved 100% PTA and > 90% CFR against S. pneumoniae. Both levofloxacin and ceftriaxone achieved high PTA and CFR against H. influenzae. Levofloxacin achieved PTAs < 90% at EUCAST/CLSI breakpoints and ceftriaxone achieved PTAs < 90% at MICs up to 2 mg/L against S. aureus; both agents produced generally low CFRs against S. aureus (except levofloxacin against methicillin-sensitive S. aureus), reflecting the lack of activity of these agents against methicillin-resistant S. aureus.ConclusionCeftaroline fosamil demonstrated higher overall PTA rates than levofloxacin and ceftriaxone, in particular against S. aureus. These results provide insight regarding the potential comparative efficacy of the described antibiotics for moderate-to-severe CAP.FundingPfizer.

Purpose A series of iterative population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling and probability of target attainment (PTA) analyses based on emerging data supported dose selection for aztreonam-avibactam, an investigational combination antibiotic for serious Gram-negative bacterial infections. Methods Two iterations of PK models built from avibactam data in infected patients and aztreonam data in healthy subjects with “patient-like” assumptions were used in joint PTA analyses (primary target: aztreonam 60% f T > 8 mg/L, avibactam 50% f T > 2.5 mg/L) exploring patient variability, infusion durations, and adjustments for moderate (estimated creatinine clearance [CrCL] > 30 to ≤ 50 mL/min) and severe renal impairment (> 15 to ≤ 30 mL/min). Achievement of > 90% joint PTA and the impact of differential renal clearance were considerations in dose selection. Results Iteration 1 simulations for Phase I/IIa dose selection/modification demonstrated that 3-h and continuous infusions provide comparable PTA; avibactam dose drives joint PTA within clinically relevant exposure targets; and loading doses support more rapid joint target attainment. An aztreonam/avibactam 500/137 mg 30-min loading dose and 1500/410 mg 3-h maintenance infusions q6h were selected for further evaluation. Iteration 2 simulations using expanded PK models supported an alteration to the regimen (500/167 mg loading; 1500/500 mg q6h maintenance 3-h infusions for CrCL > 50 mL/min) and selection of doses for renal impairment for Phase IIa/III clinical studies. Conclusion A loading dose plus 3-h maintenance infusions of aztreonam-avibactam in a 3:1 fixed ratio q6h optimizes joint PTA. These analyses supported dose selection for the aztreonam-avibactam Phase III clinical program. Clinical trial registration : NCT01689207; NCT02655419; NCT03329092; NCT03580044.

The population of the Critically Endangered Mauritius fody Foudia rubra fell by 55% over 1975–1993 because of habitat destruction and predation. The species was believed to be dependent on a small grove of introduced, non-invasive Cryptomeria japonica trees that offered protection from nest predation. We investigated the current population size and distribution of the fody and compared nesting success in forestry plantations to that of a released population on an offshore island. The population size on the mainland has remained stable over the past 10 years, with increases in pine Pinus spp. plantations, but continues to decline in areas of predominantly native vegetation. Only 16% of pairs found were estimated to nest in native tree species. Up to 81% of nest failures on the mainland were attributed to predation but nesting success in C. japonica and pine trees was similar to that of a released population on a predator-free offshore island. The mainland population is increasingly dependent on plantations for survival and we predict this will continue. Management and protection of non-invasive exotic species, together with creation of native habitat refuges on the mainland and offshore islands can be used to increase numbers of threatened birds in areas where predator control is not feasible.

The marooning of populations on offshore islands can be used as a conservation technique for species threatened by introduced predators, but post-release breeding success is not always as high as expected. Following the release of Mauritius Fodies onto a partially restored islet of regenerating forest, supplementary food and control of nest parasites through the application of insecticide were used as precautionary measures to aid the establishment of a population. Nests were continuously monitored in the first three breeding seasons to inform future management decisions. The fodies built nests in taller, more mature vegetation and younger females were more likely to abandon nests before incubation started. Eggs were laid between July and February and nests made earlier in the season were more likely to fledge young. Treating nests with the insecticide carbaryl increased the probability of success, but the distance of the nest from the supplementary feeding aviaries had no effect. The number of young per female decreased each breeding season and nesting success was similar to that of fodies using exotic plantation trees on the mainland between 2002 and 2006. Future research using population models and adaptive management could lead to the withdrawal or reduction of support measures for the released population and/or the harvest of individuals to establish populations on other offshore islands.