Explore the vast range of titles available.

Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the “new Arctic”). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA's terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO. This paper provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system and various performance metrics. Among the advances in MERRA-2 relevant to IESA are the assimilation of aerosol observations, several improvements to the representation of the stratosphere including ozone, and improved representations of cryospheric processes. Other improvements in the quality of MERRA-2 compared with MERRA include the reduction of some spurious trends and jumps related to changes in the observing system, and reduced biases and imbalances in aspects of the water cycle. Remaining deficiencies are also identified. Production of MERRA-2 began in June 2014 in four processing streams, and converged to a single near-real time stream in mid 2015. MERRA-2 products are accessible online through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC).

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and plays a significant role in the sea ice mass balance in the polar regions. Over the Southern Ocean, precipitation is particularly uncertain due to the lack of direct observations in this remote and harsh environment. Here we demonstrate that precipitation estimates from eight global reanalyses produce similar spatial patterns between 2000 and 2010, although their annual means vary by about 250 mm yr−1 (or 26% of the median values) and there is little similarity in their representation of interannual variability. ERA-Interim produces the smallest and CFSR produces the largest amount of precipitation overall. Rainfall and snowfall are partitioned in five reanalyses; snowfall suffers from the same issues as the total precipitation comparison, with ERA-Interim producing about 128 mm less snowfall and JRA-55 about 103mm more rainfall compared to the other reanalyses. When compared to CloudSat-derived snowfall, these five reanalyses indicate similar spatial patterns, but differ in their magnitude. All reanalyses indicate precipitation on nearly every day of the year, with spurious values occurring on an average of about 60 days yr−1, resulting in an accumulation of about 4.5 mm yr−1. While similarities in spatial patterns among the reanalyses suggest a convergence, the large spread in magnitudes points to issues with the background models in adequately reproducing precipitation rates, and the differences in the model physics employed. Further improvements to model physics are required to achieve confidence in precipitation rate, as well as the phase and frequency of precipitation in these products.

Melt area is one of the most reliably monitored variables associated with surface conditions over the full Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Surface melt is also an important indicator of surface mass balance and has potential relevance to the ice sheet’s global sea level contribution. Melt events are known to be spatially heterogeneous and have varying time scales. To understand the forcing mechanisms, it is necessary to examine the relation between the existing conditions and melt area on the time scales that melt is observed. Here, the authors conduct a regression analysis of atmospheric reanalysis variables including sea level pressure, near-surface winds, and components of the surface energy budget with surface melt. The regression analysis finds spatial heterogeneity in the associated atmospheric circulation conditions. For basins in the southern GrIS, there is an association between melt area and high pressure located south of the Denmark Strait, which allows for southerly flow over the western half of the GrIS. Instantaneous surface melt over northern basins is also associated with low pressure over the central Arctic. Basins associated with persistent summer melt in the southern and western GrIS are associated with the presence of an enhanced cloud cover, a resulting decreased downwelling solar radiative flux, and an enhanced downwelling longwave radiative flux. This contrasts with basins to the north and east, where an increased downwelling solar radiative flux plays a more important role in the onset of a melt event. The analysis emphasizes the importance of daily variability in synoptic conditions and their preferred association with melt events.

Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980–2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7 ± 4.5 cm yr−1water-equivalent (w.e.) at ½° model grid spacing, and 18.2 ± 3.3 cm yr−1w.e. for 2° grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the ½° simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2° integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser-resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km² moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

Components of the atmospheric energy budget from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in polar regions for the period 1979–2005 and compared with previous estimates, in situ observations, and contemporary reanalyses. Closure of the budget is reflected by the analysis increments term, which indicates an energy surplus of 11 W m−2over the North Polar cap (70°–90°N) and 22 W m−2over the South Polar cap (70°–90°S). Total atmospheric energy convergence from MERRA compares favorably with previous studies for northern high latitudes but exceeds the available previous estimate for the South Polar cap by 46%. Discrepancies with the Southern Hemisphere energy transport are largest in autumn and may be related to differences in topography with earlier reanalyses. For the Arctic, differences between MERRA and other sources in top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative fluxes are largest in May. These differences are concurrent with the largest discrepancies between MERRA parameterized and observed surface albedo. For May, in situ observations of the upwelling shortwave flux in the Arctic are 80 W m−2larger than MERRA, while the MERRA downwelling longwave flux is underestimated by 12 W m−2throughout the year. Over grounded ice sheets, the annual mean net surface energy flux in MERRA is erroneously nonzero. Contemporary reanalyses from the Climate Forecast Center (CFSR) and the Interim Re-Analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I) are found to have better surface parameterizations; however, these reanalyses also disagree with observed surface and TOA energy fluxes. Discrepancies among available reanalyses underscore the challenge of reproducing credible estimates of the atmospheric energy budget in polar regions.

The atmospheric moisture budget from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is evaluated in polar regions for the period 1979–2005 and compared with previous estimates, accumulation syntheses over polar ice sheets, and in situ Arctic precipitation observations. The system is based on a nonspectral background model and utilizes the incremental analysis update scheme. The annual moisture convergence from MERRA for the north polar cap is comparable to previous estimates using 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and earlier reanalyses but it is more than 50% larger than MERRA precipitation minus evaporation (P – E) computed from physics output fields. This imbalance is comparable to earlier reanalyses for the Arctic. For the south polar cap, the imbalance is 20%. The MERRA physics output fields are also found to be overly sensitive to changes in the satellite observing system, particularly over data-sparse regions of the Southern Ocean. Comparisons between MERRA and prognostic fields from two contemporary reanalyses yield a spread of values from 6% of the mean over the Antarctic Ice Sheet to 61% over a domain of the Arctic Ocean. These issues highlight continued problems associated with the representation of cold-climate physical processes in global data assimilation models. The distribution of MERRA surface fluxes over the major polar ice sheets emphasizes larger values along the coastal escarpments, which agrees more closely with recent assessments of ice sheet accumulation using regional models. Differences between these results and earlier assessments illustrate a continued ambiguity in the surface moisture flux distribution over Greenland and Antarctica. The higher spatial and temporal resolution as well as the availability of all budget components, including analysis increments in MERRA, offer prospects for an improved representation of the high-latitude water cycle in reanalyses.

The inter-relationship between subtropical western–central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentrations in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in summer are investigated over the period 1980–2016. It is shown that the Arctic response to the remote impact of the Pacific SST is more dominant in recent summers, leading to a frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the NAO following the STWCPSST increase. Lag–correlations of STWCPSST positive (negative) anomalies in spring with the negative (positive) NAO and SICBS loss (recovery) in summer have increased over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4–0.5 with significance at the 5 percent level. Both observations and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments suggest that the positive STWCPSST anomaly and subsequent planetary-scale wave propagation act to increase the Arctic upper-level geopotential heights and temperatures in the following season. This response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. Connected with this atmospheric response, SIC and surface albedo decrease with an increase in the surface net shortwave flux over the Beaufort Sea. Examination of the surface energy balance (radiative and turbulent fluxes) reveals that surplus energy that can heat the surface increases over the Arctic, enhancing the SIC reduction.

A multilayer, daily ice surface temperature (IST)–albedo–water vapor product of Greenland, extending from March 2000 through December 2016, has been developed using standard MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data products from the Terra satellite. To meet the needs of the ice sheet modeling community, this new Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) is provided in a polar stereographic projection in NetCDF format, and includes the existing standard MODIS Collection 6.1 IST and derived melt maps, and Collection 6 snow albedo and water vapor maps, along with ancillary data, and is provided at a spatial resolution of ~0.78 km. This ESDR enables relationships between IST, surface melt, albedo, and water vapor to be evaluated easily. We show examples of the components of the ESDR and describe some uses of the ESDR such as for comparison with skin temperature, albedo, and water vapor output from Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Additionally, we show validation of the MODIS IST using in situ and aircraft data, and validation of MERRA-2 skin temperature maps using MODIS IST and in situ data. The ESDR has been assigned a DOI and will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center by the summer of 2018.