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Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is − 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of − 17% (wheat), − 5% (maize), − 15% (sorghum) and − 10% (millet) and across South Asia of − 16% (maize) and − 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of > 3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

Multispectral imaging using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has changed the pace of precision agriculture. Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from the very high spatial resolution of UAV images over agricultural fields can help farmers increase their production at the lowest possible cost. ETa estimation using UAVs requires a full package of sensors capturing the visible/infrared and thermal portions of the spectrum. Therefore, this study focused on a multi-sensor data fusion approach for ETa estimation (MSDF-ET) independent of thermal sensors. The method was based on sharpening the Landsat 8 pixels to UAV spatial resolution by considering the relationship between reference ETa fraction (ETrf) and a Vegetation Index (VI). Four Landsat 8 images were processed to calculate ETa of three UAV images over three almond fields. Two flights coincided with the overpasses and one was in between two consecutive Landsat 8 images. ETrf was chosen instead of ETa to interpolate the Landsat 8-derived ETrf images to obtain an ETrf image on the UAV flight. ETrf was defined as the ratio of ETa to grass reference evapotranspiration (ETr), and the VIs tested in this study included the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). NDVI performed better under the study conditions. The MSDF-ET-derived ETa showed strong correlations against measured ETa, UAV- and Landsat 8-based METRIC ETa. Also, visual comparison of the MSDF-ET ETa maps was indicative of a promising performance of the method. In sum, the resulting ETa had a higher spatial resolution compared with thermal-based ETa without the need for the Albedo and hot/cold pixels selection procedure. However, wet soils were poorly detected, and in cases of continuous cloudy Landsat pixels the long interval between the images may cause biases in ETa estimation from the MSDF-ET method. Generally, the MSDF-ET method reduces the need for very high resolution thermal information from the ground, and the calculations can be conducted on a moderate-performance computer system because the main image processing is applied on Landsat images with coarser spatial resolutions.

Reflectance spectroscopy for soil property prediction is a non-invasive, fast, and cost-effective alternative to the standard laboratory analytical procedures. Soil spectroscopy has been under study for decades now with limited application outside research. The recent advancement in precision agriculture and the need for the spatial assessment of soil properties have raised interest in this technique. The performance of soil spectroscopy differs from one site to another depending on the soil’s physical composition and chemical properties but it also depends on the instrumentation, mode of use (in-situ/laboratory), spectral range, and data analysis methods used to correlate reflectance data to soil properties. This paper uses the systematic review procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence-Based Conservation (CEBC) for an evidence-based search of soil property prediction using Visible (V) and Near-InfraRed (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy. Constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature search and data extraction, a meta-analysis is conducted on 115 articles collated from 30 countries. In addition to the soil properties, findings are also categorized and reported by different aspects like date of publication, journals, countries, employed regression methods, laboratory or in-field conditions, spectra preprocessing methods, samples drying methods, spectroscopy devices, wavelengths, number of sites and samples, and data division into calibration and validation sets. The arithmetic means of the coefficient of determination (R2) over all the reports for different properties ranged from 0.68 to 0.87, with better predictions for carbon and nitrogen content and lower performance for silt and clay. After over 30 years of research on using V-NIR spectroscopy to predict soil properties, this systematic review reveals solid evidence from a literature search that this technology can be relied on as a low-cost and fast alternative for standard methods of soil properties prediction with acceptable accuracy.

Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (−11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed.

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make.

Plant physiological status is the interaction between the plant genome and the prevailing growth conditions. Accurate characterization of plant physiology is, therefore, fundamental to effective plant phenotyping studies; particularly those focused on identifying traits associated with improved yield, lower input requirements, and climate resilience. Here, we outline the approaches used to assess plant physiology and how these techniques of direct empirical observations of processes such as photosynthetic CO2 assimilation, stomatal conductance, photosystem II electron transport, or the effectiveness of protective energy dissipation mechanisms are unsuited to high-throughput phenotyping applications. Novel optical sensors, remote/proximal sensing (multi- and hyperspectral reflectance, infrared thermography, sun-induced fluorescence), LiDAR, and automated analyses of below-ground development offer the possibility to infer plant physiological status and growth. However, there are limitations to such ‘indirect’ approaches to gauging plant physiology. These methodologies that are appropriate for the rapid high temporal screening of a number of crop varieties over a wide spatial scale do still require ‘calibration’ or ‘validation’ with direct empirical measurement of plant physiological status. The use of deep-learning and artificial intelligence approaches may enable the effective synthesis of large multivariate datasets to more accurately quantify physiological characters rapidly in high numbers of replicate plants. Advances in automated data collection and subsequent data processing represent an opportunity for plant phenotyping efforts to fully integrate fundamental physiological data into vital efforts to ensure food and agro-economic sustainability.

In the last few decades, a great deal has been written on the use of sustainable agriculture to improve the resilience of ecosystem services to climate change. However, no tangible and systematic evidence exists on how this agriculture would participate in alleviating impacts on vulnerable rural communities. This paper provides a narrative systematic review (SR) integrated with a bibliometric analysis and a concept network analysis to determine how, in this changing climate, sustainable agriculture can increase the resilience of agrosystems. Our search ranged from the date of the first relevant article until the end of 2018. The results generated demonstrated the following: (a) Only single practices and methods have been studied to assess the impacts on single ecosystem services; (b) Soil quality and health are considered a key indicator of sustainable agriculture; (c) Although the assessed practices and methods were shown to improve the biodiversity of agrosystems, which makes them more resilient to extreme climate events, we are still far from developing interdisciplinary and multidimensional agriculture that integrates all management aspects and generates a full range of ecosystem services. In conclusion, this study addressed the following recommendations for the scientific community and policymakers to orient future research strategies and efforts: (a) The integration of all agrosystem services into sustainable management using an ecosystem-based approach on a life-cycle basis using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method; (b) Improving the scientific understanding of traditional knowledge to facilitate greater synergy and further integration; (c) The unification of assessment methods and indicators for the quantification of impacts; (d) The creation of a platform to share, monitor, screen, and approve assessments and evaluations of sustainable agriculture by region.

Drought indices have been extensively used by the hydrological research community for understanding drought risks to water resources systems. In a humid climate, such as in England, most agricultural production is rainfed and dependent on summer rainfall, but knowledge of drought risks in terms of their occurrence and potential agronomic impacts on crop productivity remains limited. This paper evaluated the utility of integrating data from three well-established drought indices, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI), the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), with simulated yield outputs from a biophysical crop model for potato, a drought-sensitive and high-value crop. The relationships between drought onset and yield response were statistically evaluated. The SPEI-3 drought indicator was found to be most suited to monitoring water availability and hence drought conditions for both rainfed and irrigated production. ‘Heat maps’ were produced to illustrate the strength of the correlation between the modelled SUBSTOR-Potato yields and SPEI for different aggregation periods and monthly lags. Finally, the outputs were used to assess alternative ways in which decision-making could be improved regarding adaptation strategies to reduce agricultural system vulnerability to future drought events.

Groundwater is a vital source of freshwater, supporting the livelihood of over two billion people worldwide. The quantitative assessment of groundwater resources is critical for sustainable management of this strained resource, particularly as climate warming, population growth, and socioeconomic development further press the water resources. Rapid growth in the availability of a plethora of in-situ and remotely sensed data alongside advancements in data-driven methods and machine learning offer immense opportunities for an improved assessment of groundwater resources at the local to global levels. This systematic review documents the advancements in this field and evaluates the accuracy of various models, following the protocol developed by the Center for Evidence-Based Conservation. A total of 197 original peer-reviewed articles from 2010–2020 and from 28 countries that employ regression machine learning algorithms for groundwater monitoring or prediction are analyzed and their results are aggregated through a meta-analysis. Our analysis points to the capability of machine learning models to monitor/predict different characteristics of groundwater resources effectively and efficiently. Modeling the groundwater level is the most popular application of machine learning models, and the groundwater level in previous time steps is the most employed input data. The feed-forward artificial neural network is the most employed and accurate model, although the model performance does not exhibit a striking dependence on the model choice, but rather the information content of the input variables. Around 10–12 years of data are required to develop an acceptable machine learning model with a monthly temporal resolution. Finally, advances in machine and deep learning algorithms and computational advancements to merge them with physics-based models offer unprecedented opportunities to employ new information, e.g., InSAR data, for increased spatiotemporal resolution and accuracy of groundwater monitoring and prediction.

Precision agriculture is increasingly used where in-field spatial variability exists; however, the benefits of its use in humid climates are less apparent. This paper reports on a cost-benefit assessment of precision irrigation with variable rate technique (VRI) versus conventional irrigation, both compared to rainfed production, using a travelling hose-reel irrigator fitted with a boom on onions in eastern England. Selected environmental outcomes including water savings and CO2e emissions are evaluated. The modelled precision irrigation system, which responds to soil variability, generates better environmental outcomes than the conventional system in terms of water savings and reduced CO2e emissions (22.6% and 23.0% lower, respectively). There is also an increase in the 'added value' of the irrigation water used (£3.02/m3 versus £2.36/m3). Although precision irrigation leads to significant financial benefits from water and energy savings, these alone do not justify the additional equipment investment costs. However, any changes in yield or quality benefits, equipment costs or greater soil variability than on this site would make investment in precision irrigation more viable.