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Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented. An ensemble of simulations indicates that ongoing climate change will exceed the bounds of historical climate variability some time in the mid to late twenty-first century and that the burden of rapid climate adaption will occur earliest in highly biodiverse and often economically challenged tropical areas. Tropics first in line for climate change woes Projections of warming are now a fixture of climate modelling exercises. Camilo Mora et al . have used an ensemble of these simulations to estimate when ongoing warming will exceed the bounds of historical climate variability. Depending on assumptions regarding future emissions in greenhouse gasses, this will occur sometime in the mid to late twenty-first century. This landmark event is likely to occur first in the tropics, where historical variability is low, and where biodiversity is highest. The new projections suggest that the often economically challenged areas in the tropics will face the highest burden of rapidly adapting to the biological effects of climate change. In an accompanying News & Views Forum, three climatologists discuss the significance of these results.

Replying to E. Hawkins et al. Nature511, 10.1038/nature13523 (2014) In the accompanying Comment, Hawkins et al. 1 suggest that our index 2 of the projected timing of climate departure from recent variability is biased to occur too early and is given with overestimated confidence. We contest their assertions and maintain that our findings are conservative and remain unaltered in light of their analysis.

The question of when the signal of climate change will emerge from the background noise of climate variability-the 'time of emergence'- is potentially important for adaptation planning. Mora et al.1 presented precise projections of the time of emergence of unprecedented regional climates. However, their methodology produces artificially early dates at which specific regions will permanently experience unprecedented climates and artificially low uncertainty in those dates everywhere.

Learned societies play a vital role in fostering interactions that are important in scholarly discourse and the advancement of biological sciences. However, they now face threats from declining funding and membership, shifting disciplinary boundaries, changing approaches towards digital communication, and academic marketization. We outline the historical development of these societies and propose ways to sustain them. Key considerations include improving meetings, adapting publishing models, ensuring financial stability, expanding membership, strengthening outreach, and managing increasingly broad remits. Our main aim is to examine how regional learned societies can maintain their roles to support scientific progress and enrich broader society.

Designing agroecosystems that are compatible with the conservation of biodiversity is a top conservation priority. However, the social variables that drive native biodiversity conservation in these systems are poorly understood. We devised a new approach to identify social-ecological linkages that affect conservation outcomes in agroecosystems and in social-ecological systems more broadly. We focused on coastal agroforests in Fiji, which, like agroforests across other small Pacific Islands, are critical to food security, contain much of the country's remaining lowland forests, and have rapidly declining levels of native biodiversity. We tested the relationships among social variables and native tree species richness in agroforests with structural equation models. The models were built with data from ecological and social surveys in 100 agroforests and associated households. The agroforests hosted 95 native tree species of which almost one-third were endemic. Fifty-eight percent of farms had at least one species considered threatened at the national or international level. The best-fi structural equation model (R² = 47.8%) showed that social variables important for community resilience— local ecological knowledge, social network connectivity, and livelihood diversity—had direct and indirect positive effects on native tree species richness. Cash-crop intensification, a driver of biodiversity loss elsewhere, did not negatively affect native tree richness within parcels. Joining efforts to build community resilience, specifically by increasing livelihood diversity, local ecological knowledge, and social network connectivity, may help conservation agencies conserve the rapidly declining biodiversity in the region. El diseño de agro-ecosistemas que sean compatibles con la conservación de la biodiversidad es una prioridad de suma importancia para la conservación. Sin embargo, se entiende muy poco sobre las variables sociales que conducen a la conservación de la biodiversidad nativa en estos sistemas. Diseñamos una nueva estrategia para identificar las conexiones socio-ecológicas que afectan los resultados de conservación en los agro-ecosistemas y de manera más general en los sistemas socio-ecológicos. Nos enfocamos en agro-bosque costeros en las islas de Fiyi, los cuales, similares a los agro-bosques de otras pequeñas islas del Pacífico, son de mucha importancia para la seguridad alimentaria, contienen la mayoría de los bosques de tierras bajas que aún permanecen en el país, y tienen niveles de declinación rápida de la biodiversidad nativa. Evaluamos las relaciones entre las variables sociales y la riqueza de especies nativas de árboles en los agrobosques con modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Los modelos se construyeron con datos de censos ecológicos y sociales en 100 agro-bosques y hogares asociados. Los agro-bosques incluyeron a 95 especies nativas de árboles, de las cuales casi un tercio son endémicas. El 58% de las granjas tuvieron al menos una especie considerada como amenazada a nivel nacional o internacional. El modelo de ecuación estructural mejor adecuado (R² = 47.8%) mostró que las variables sociales que son importantes para la resilienda comunitaria - el conocimiento ecológico local, la conectividad en redes sociales, y la diversidad de sustentos - tuvieron efectos positivos directos e indirectos sobre la riqueza de especies nativas de árboles. La intensificación del cultivo comercial, un conductor de la pérdida de la biodiversidad en otras partes, no afectó negativamente a la riqueza de especies nativas de árboles dentro de las parcelas. La unión de esfuerzos para construir una resilienda comunitaria, específicamente al incrementar la diversidad de sustentos, el conocimiento ecológico local, y la conectividad en redes sociales, puede ayudar a las agencias de conservación a conservar la biodiversidad que declina rápidamente en la región. 设计出可以与生物多祥性保护相适应的农业生态系统是保护的首要任务。然而，这些系统中驱动原生生 物多祥性保护的社会因素尚不为人所知。我们设计了ー个新方法来确定在农业生态系统及更广泛的社会一一生 态系统中影响保护成效的社会一一生态联系。我们的研究关注斐济(Fiji)的沿海农林，它们和其它太平洋小岛 的农林一祥, 对粮食安全十分重要。它包含了该国大部分剰余的低地森林，且原生生物多祥性水平巳快速下降。 我们用结构方程模型检验了农林生态系统的社会变量和原生树种丰富度的关系，模型的数据来自100个农林和 相应家庭的生态学及社会学调查。农林生态系统中有95种原生树种，其中近三分之ー是特有种。百分之五十八 的农场有至少ー种在国家或全球水平上被认为是受威胁的物种。拟合最好的结构方程模型(R² = 47.8%)显示, 影响群落恢复カ的重要社会变量(当地生态学知识、社会网络连通性和生计多样性)对原生树种丰富度有直接 和间接的积极作用。在其它地方导致生物多样性丧失的经济作物集约化，而在我们研究的地块中对原生树种丰 富度却没有负面影响。通过增加生计多样性、当地生态学知识和社会网络连通性，共同努力建立群落恢复力，可 能有助于保护机构保护该地区快速下降的生物多祥性。

Coral reefs sustain millions of people worldwide, yet in recent years, social, environmental, and climate change have caused major declines in coral reef fisheries. Small-scale coral reef fisheries research has largely focused on community-level drivers of fishing, ignoring the heterogeneities that exist within communities. We used social-ecological indicators from 20 coastal villages in Fiji to identify potential fine-scale, context-appropriate drivers of estimated household fish catch. Indicators were developed based on a review of the literature, discussions with local experts, and a pilot study. Using structural equation models, we found that importance of fishing to income, household fish consumption, livelihood diversity, travel time to market, and coral reef area all positively affect estimated household-level fish catch. Our results contrast with findings from other larger scale studies by identifying that households further from markets had higher fishing frequency. We highlight the role of middlemen in these small-scale fisheries, who have been largely overlooked as drivers of fisheries catch. Our findings emphasize the need for household-level analyses to better understand the complexities in coral reef social-ecological systems to more effectively manage small-scale fisheries in communities.

As climate change increases the probability and/or severity of major disturbances worldwide, understanding how agroecological food systems can be resilient to the effects of major disturbances becomes critical. Farm-level crop and cultivar richness are critical to food security and nutritional dietary diversity, but quantitative research of how they are impacted by major disturbances, including the dynamics of their recovery, is largely lacking. We assessed the resilience of an agroforest-based food system to a recent Category 5 cyclone. Specifically, we carried out vegetation surveys in Fijian agroforests pre-cyclone, and 1 and 3 years post-cyclone, to assess changes in staple starch crop and cultivar richness over time. Resilience, measured as robustness, redundancy, reactivity, and resourcefulness, varied with the scale of analysis. At both the crop and cultivar scale, the agroforestry systems were highly reactive to cyclone disturbance. Crop species richness increased immediately post-cyclone and 3 years later remained higher than pre-cyclone levels, largely due to the increased presence of famine food crops, indicating system robustness, redundancy, and resourcefulness as well. Farmers also planted many new starch crop cultivars post-cyclone, especially of sweet potatoes, but the total number of cultivars declined over time, indicating limited redundancy and resourcefulness. Frequent crop substitutions for cassava over taro or yams, and high cultivar dynamism that resulted in the loss of traditional varieties, can have consequences both for nutritional diversity and the maintenance of cultural traditions. This research suggests resilience is present in Fijian agroforest systems, yet a greater focus on crop cultivar diversity is needed.

Sports-related concussions and repetitive subconcussive exposure are increasingly recognized as potential dangers to paediatric populations, but much remains unknown about the short-term and long-term consequences of these events, including potential cognitive impairment and risk of later-life dementia. This Expert Consensus Document is the result of a 1-day meeting convened by Safe Kids Worldwide, the Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation, and the Andrews Institute for Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine. The goal is to highlight knowledge gaps and areas of critically needed research in the areas of concussion science, dementia, genetics, diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers, neuroimaging, sports injury surveillance, and information sharing. For each of these areas, we propose clear and achievable paths to improve the understanding, treatment and prevention of youth sports-related concussions.

Sports-related concussion is increasingly recognized as a potential danger to paediatric populations, but its short-term and long-term consequences remain poorly understood. This Expert Consensus Document is the result of a 1-day meeting convened by Safe Kids Worldwide, the Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation, and the Andrews Institute for Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine, with the aim of highlighting knowledge gaps and areas of critically needed research in youth sports-related concussion. Sports-related concussions and repetitive subconcussive exposure are increasingly recognized as potential dangers to paediatric populations, but much remains unknown about the short-term and long-term consequences of these events, including potential cognitive impairment and risk of later-life dementia. This Expert Consensus Document is the result of a 1-day meeting convened by Safe Kids Worldwide, the Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation, and the Andrews Institute for Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine. The goal is to highlight knowledge gaps and areas of critically needed research in the areas of concussion science, dementia, genetics, diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers, neuroimaging, sports injury surveillance, and information sharing. For each of these areas, we propose clear and achievable paths to improve the understanding, treatment and prevention of youth sports-related concussions.

Monitoring and evaluation are central to ensuring that innovative, multi-scale, and interdisciplinary approaches to sustainability are effective. The development of relevant indicators for local sustainable management outcomes, and the ability to link these to broader national and international policy targets, are key challenges for resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. Sets of indicators that capture both ecological and social-cultural factors, and the feedbacks between them, can underpin cross-scale linkages that help bridge local and global scale initiatives to increase resilience of both humans and ecosystems. Here we argue that biocultural approaches, in combination with methods for synthesizing across evidence from multiple sources, are critical to developing metrics that facilitate linkages across scales and dimensions. Biocultural approaches explicitly start with and build on local cultural perspectives — encompassing values, knowledges, and needs — and recognize feedbacks between ecosystems and human well-being. Adoption of these approaches can encourage exchange between local and global actors, and facilitate identification of crucial problems and solutions that are missing from many regional and international framings of sustainability. Resource managers, scientists, and policymakers need to be thoughtful about not only what kinds of indicators are measured, but also how indicators are designed, implemented, measured, and ultimately combined to evaluate resource use and well-being. We conclude by providing suggestions for translating between local and global indicator efforts. Biocultural approaches combining local values, knowledge, and needs with global ecological factors provide a fruitful indicator framework for assessing local and global well-being and sustainability, and help bridge the divide between them.