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5 result(s) for "Dafka, Stella"
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Extreme flood and WNV transmission in Thessaly, Greece, 2023
Storm Daniel, the deadliest Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone, caused significant flooding in Thessaly Region, Greece, from September 4 to 7, 2023. This study examines the potential impact of such extreme weather events on vector-borne disease transmission by assessing changes in mosquito populations and West Nile virus (WNV) circulation before and after the flood in two regional units of Thessaly. Systematic monitoring data on mosquito larvae and adults, along with WNV circulation in mosquitoes and humans from 2021 to 2023, were analyzed using a weekly interrupted time series regression design controlling for confounding drivers and temporal trends. Results indicate a significant post-flood increase in Culex mosquito populations over the 7 weeks following the event. However, despite this increase—alongside optimal temperature conditions and pre-flood amplification of WNV—no corresponding rise in WNV circulation was observed in mosquitoes or human cases. This unexpected outcome may be influenced by multiple ecological factors, including disruptions of avian host communities, human displacement, and the timing of the flood during the autumn bird migration period. These findings underscore the complexity of vector-virus-host interactions and highlight the importance of continued systematic entomological surveillance for targeted mosquito control practices.
The Etesians: from observations to reanalysis
The Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that blow over the Aegean Sea during the extended summer season. In this study we evaluate the performance of three different reanalysis products (the twentieth century reanalysis, 20CR; the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Re-Analysis, ERA40; and the recently released ECMWF reanalysis ERA-20C) in capturing the Etesian wind system. Three-hourly data from 24 stations over Greece are used and compared with reanalysis outputs for the extended summer season (May–September) from 1971 to 2000. An objective classification of Etesians based on the pressure difference over the Aegean is provided. Classified Etesian days are then investigated as well as the associated large scale atmospheric circulation. Results highlight the ability of the investigated reanalyses to adequately describe the Etesian meteorological regimes. Intense Etesians are associated with stronger geopotential height anomalies over western-central Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and with pronounced changes in the mean position of the jet streams. Finally, station time series provide evidence for less frequent intense Etesian days at the end of the extended summer season.
On the ability of RCMs to capture the circulation pattern of Etesians
The Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that prevail over the eastern Mediterranean during the extended summer season. The performance of five high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the Etesian climatology as well as the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated. The model outputs are validated against reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, 20CR-v2c and ERA20-C) and daily station observations covering the period May to September 1989–2004. Results show that most RCMs coherently reproduce the number of observed Etesian days, the duration of their episodes and the wind field over the Aegean Sea. The majority of RCMs better reproduce in situ wind speed than the driving model, especially over the central and southwestern Aegean Sea. All models represent very well the mean state of the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with Etesians both at the surface and at mid to upper troposphere, compared to reanalyses. Statistically significant differences vary depending on the subperiod, generally with a better performance for September. The performance of the models improves significantly with decreasing pressure gradient over the Aegean. Finally, results highlight the ability of EURO-CORDEX RCMs in simulating the Etesians over the Aegean, especially the DMI, SMHI and IPSL, which makes them efficient tools for wind energy applications.
Impact of climate change and variability on the occurrence and distribution of Trypanosoma vectors in The Gambia
Extreme weather events can lead to infectious disease outbreaks, especially those spread by hematophagous flies, and The Gambia is particularly vulnerable to climate change. To the best of our knowledge, no one has ever documented the relationship between climate variability and change and the distribution of the hematophagous flies belonging to the families Glossinidae, Tabanidae, and Stomoxyinae . This paper aims to study the association of temperature and humidity on the distribution of the above species and their families in The Gambia in the recent past and to provide predictions of species abundance and occurrence in the future. A line transect survey was carried out in all the administrative regions of The Gambia to study the prevalence of the flies. Generalized additive models were used to analyze the relationships between the distribution of the insects and their families and the variability in climate conditions in the recent past and in three different future periods. Regarding the recent past, our results show that temperature has significantly impacted the presence of Glossinidae and Tabanidae species, with maximum temperature being the most important factor. Relative humidity was also statistically significantly associated with Tabanidae species. None of the climate variables was found to be associated with the Tabanus par  and Tabanus sufis. Minimum temperature and relative humidity were statistically significantly associated with Glossina morsitan submorsitan , while maximum temperature was statistically significantly associated with Atylotus agrestis and Stomoxys calcitrans. Only relative humidity was statistically significantly associated with the Glossina palpalis gambiense.  As for the future projections, the results show that rising temperatures impacted the distribution of Tabanus  species, Glossina species, and Stomoxys calcitrans in The Gambia. The distribution of Trypanosoma vectors in The Gambia is mostly influenced by maximum temperature. The research’s conclusions gave climate and public health policymakers crucial information to take into account.
Simulating Extreme Etesians over the Aegean and Implications for Wind Energy Production in Southeastern Europe
Episodes of extremely strong northerly winds (known as etesians) during boreal summer can cause hazardous conditions over the Aegean Archipelago (Greece) and represent a threat for the safe design, construction, and operation of wind energy turbines. Here, these extremes are characterized by employing a peak-over-threshold approach in the extended summer season (May–September) from 1989 to 2008. Twelve meteorological stations in the Aegean are used, and results are compared with 6-hourly wind speed data from five ERA-Interim–driven regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the European domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX). The main findings show that, in the range of wind speeds for the maximum power output of the turbine, the most etesian-exposed stations could operate 90% at a hub height of 80 m. The central and northern Aegean are identified as areas prone to wind hazards, where medium- to high-wind (class II or I according to the International Electrotechnical Committee standards) wind turbines could be more suitable. In the central Aegean, turbines with a cutout wind speed > 25 m s−1 are recommended. Overall, RCMs can be considered a valuable tool for investigating wind resources at regional scale. Therefore, this study encourages a broader use of climate models for the assessment of future wind energy potential over the Aegean.