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Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

The user-facing components of the Cyberinfrastructure (CI) ecosystem, science gateways and scientific workflow systems, share a common need of interfacing with physical resources (storage systems and execution environments) to manage data and execute codes (applications). However, there is no uniform, platform-independent way to describe either the resources or the applications. To address this, we propose uniform semantics for describing resources and applications that will be relevant to a diverse set of stakeholders. We sketch a solution to the problem of a common description and catalog of resources: we describe an approach to implementing a resource registry for use by the community and discuss potential approaches to some long-term challenges. We conclude by looking ahead to the application description language.

The Science Gateways Community Institute (SGCI) is an NSF Software Infrastructure for Sustained Innovation (S2I2) funded project that leads and supports the science gateway community. Major activities for SGCI include a) sustainability training, including the Focus Week week-long course designed to help science gateway operators develop sustainability plans, and the Jumpstart virtual short-course; b) usability and user experience consulting; c) a community catalog of science gateways and science gateway software; d) workforce development activities, including a coding institute for students, internship opportunities, and hackathons; e) an annual conference; and f) in-depth technical support for client gateway projects. The goals of SGCI's Embedded Technical Support component are to help the institute's clients to create new science gateways or to significantly enhance existing science gateways. Examples of the latter include helping to implement major new capabilities and to implement significant usability improvements suggested by SGCI's usability consultants. The Embedded Technical Support component was managed by Indiana University and involved research software engineers at San Diego Supercomputer Center, Texas Advanced Computing Center, Indiana University, and Purdue University (through 2019). Since 2016, the component has involved 20 research software engineers as consultants and has conducted 59 client consultations. This short paper provides a summary of lessons learned from the Embedded Technical Support program that may be useful for the research software engineering community.