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"Daianu, Daniel"
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Emerging Europe and the Great Recession
This volume adds to the existing literature on the Great Recession and the variety of current troubles in the European Union by providing the views of someone who has been in the trenches at national and international levels and who has extensive policy and academic experience. Furthermore, it deals, inter alia, with issues of huge importance such as \"North-South\" and \"East-West\" cleavages in the EU, problems in the Eurozone, the diminishing resilience of systems, and the rise of a \"New Protectionism\". The book voices concerns and dilemmas from the perspective of new EU Member States in a period of \"radical uncertainty\" and painful policy trade-offs. Its underlying paradigm is that markets are essential for entrepreneurship and economic dynamism, but that market failures and global finance can cause a lot of misery in society unless they are reined in. This volume will be of interest to all those looking for insights into the challenges that the EU, the Eurozone, and emerging European economies have faced during the past decade and on what may lie ahead. Its target audience is policy-making and business circles, academia, research outfits, and NGOs.
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Guest article: The Security of Europe (EU) and Real Politik – The Transatlantic Relationship is in Great Danger
The logic of realpolitik dominates once more the international relations in a world buffeted by multiple challenges and shocks – economic and geopolitical shocks, societal crises, backsliding into authoritarianism, rising protectionism and the erosion of multilateralism in international relations, climate change, the impact of artificial intelligence/AI, etc. The EU can no longer rely unconditionally on its strongest NATO ally (the US), and the new budgetary dilemmas entailed by the need to strengthen its own defence will likely ask for difficult policy trade-offs that could add to social discontent. At its creation, the EU’s primary aim was to safeguard peace on the European continent while the US provided a strong security backstop. Over the decades, this aim has been gradually eclipsed by the goal of economic prosperity or of regaining vigour (as in recent years), but lately it has come again to the forefront, as the ghosts of past animosities and ordeals haunt the European continent, with a war of attrition raging at its gates. The highly turbulent and uncertain international context complicates Romania’s dire budgetary situation. Fiscal consolidation is a must for Romania’s economic security, as it suffers from an acute “twin deficits” syndrome. Europe needs badly a new security architecture, which requires US involvement as well. The EU needs to get a new momentum.
Journal Article
A New EU Economic Governance and Fiscal Framework: What Role for the National Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs)?
The European Commission’s communication on orientations for a reform of the European Union’s economic governance framework asks the European Fiscal Board (EFB) and national Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs) to play a more significant role in it. This vision has plenty of merit, but one needs to be careful in how to implement it. Structural reforms and public investment analysis demand an expertise hardly existing at the level of most national IFIs, and any involvement in policy design would make its assessment tricky when IFIs are part of the process: an inescapable conflict of interest would ensue. It could also be perceived as a technocratic encroachment on a democratic decision-making process. In order to play a more significant role in the EU economic governance framework, national IFIs need more resources according to the EU-wide acceptable standards of operation, and, first of all, they need to bolster their macroeconomic and debt sustainability analysis capabilities.
Journal Article
Overhaul Capitalism to Save Democracy
Why have our societies become so deeply divided, which is inimical to
democracy? How do growing distributional conflicts impact governance structures? Why
does fake news take often precedence over truth? What should be done to avert that the rule
of law is undermined by the rule of the mob? It may be that the current crises (public health
and economic) are harbingers of a new turning point in the evolution of capitalism. This
evolution is interlocked with cycles of ideas, of public policies, and institutional change. A
mixed economy took shape over time, in which a public sector and a private sector cohabit,
based on market dynamism, entrepreneurship, with the shares held by the two sectors
shifting in accordance with historical and local conditions. The debate that has started after
the outbreak of the last financial crisis is about the path of capitalism, of the mixed economy,
of democracy. We need to steer the course of events in the right direction via wise policies.
Safeguarding democracy relates to the urgency to deal with climate change as an existential
threat.
Journal Article
Can Democracies Tackle Illiberal and “Inward-Looking” Drives?
There is evidence of mounting illiberal inclinations in the industrialized world, in democratic societies; an “inward-looking” syndrome (rising nationalism) is also taking place. Are they to be linked with temporary drivers in the ‘extraordinary times’ we are living through, or do they have deeper roots? An answer to this question begs an examination of trends in society and economy, of the emergence of new (unconventional) threats, of disruptions and, not least, of failed public policies. The argument that ‘liberal democracy’ is on the wane is misleading to the extent that policies can be corrected, that citizens and elites alike do not lose trust in democratic values. It may also be true that, although democracy has a ‘liberal core’, it can also be driven by ‘illiberal’ components, and that the magnitude of the latter can vary. But for democracy to survive, its liberal core must be preserved.
Journal Article
Romania’s Euro Area Accession: The Question is Under What Terms
Euro area (EA) accession should mainly depend on the achievement of a critical mass of real and structural convergence, which should diminish the risks to operate in an incomplete monetary union. Accession would also be enhanced by reforms in the functioning of euro area institutions and policies which should deal with asymmetric shocks. We argue that the true stake of euro adoption in Romania should be neither “if’’ nor “when”, but “under what terms” and “how it will be done”. The essential prerequisite for real convergence is raising competitiveness. Our analysis shows common problems regarding competitiveness in new member states in terms of infrastructure, institutional development, business sophistication, innovation; it points out the scale of risks attached to a premature euro area accession. This accession does not require the achievement of the euro area average level of GDP/capita (in PPP terms). As we argue, one can imagine Romania’s accession after having achieved a minimum of 75% of euro area GDP/capita average and the fulfilment of a series of structural conditions against the backdrop of euro area reforms.
Journal Article
REVISITING EURO AREA ACCESSION TERMS
This paper argues that there are conditions for successful euro area (EA) accession, apart from fiscal rectitude. One is an ex ante critical mass of real convergence which should enhance lasting nominal convergence. Another condition is an overhaul of EA mechanisms and policies that should make it a properly functioning monetary union, which implies an adequate mix between risk-reduction and risk-sharing. It is argued that risk-sharing cannot be secured by private sector arrangements only. Entering the ERM2 is deemed to be no less demanding than euro area accession per se, especially for countries that use flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper examines also the influence of production (value) chains on the efficacy of autonomous monetary and exchange rate policies when it comes to controlling external imbalances; macro-prudential policies, too, are highlighted in this regard. Steady productivity gains are a must for surmounting the middle income trap and achieving sustainable real convergence.
Journal Article
Which Way Goes Capitalism?
In this title, a well-known academic economist and former finance minister gives a lucid and well balanced overview of the current financial turbulences that have hit the developed economies. Strongly criticizing the excesses of neoliberal capitalism, Daianu calls for implementing necessary regulatory reforms in the financial sector and for restoration of a proper balance between the functions of the state and the market. Daianu goes back to some of the roots of the current crisis and the flaws or weaknesses of the global financial system. In doing so, he extensively discusses the monetary union of the Euro, and the critical question whether, how and when additional countries can and should join the club. This is a timely volume with a very strong and important warning.
eBook
