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We present a novel conceptual framework and methodology for studying virtual water trade. We utilize complex network theory to analyze the structure of the global virtual water trade associated with the international food trade. In the global virtual water trade network, the nations that participate in the international food trade correspond to the nodes, and the links represent the flows of virtual water associated with the trade of food from the country of export to the country of import. We find that the number of trade connections follows an exponential distribution, except for the case of import trade relationships, while the volume of water that each nation trades compares well with a stretched exponential distribution, indicating high heterogeneity of flows between nations. There is a power law relationship between the volume of virtual water traded and the number of trade connections of each nation. Highly connected nations are preferentially linked to poorly connected nations and exhibit low levels of clustering. However, when the volume of virtual water traded is taken into account, this structure breaks down. This indicates a global hierarchy, in which nations that trade large volumes of water are more likely to link to and cluster with other nations that trade large volumes of water, particularly when the direction of trade is considered. Nations that play a critical role in maintaining the global network architecture are highlighted. Our analysis provides the necessary framework for the development of a model of global virtual water trade aimed at applications ranging from network optimization to climate change impact evaluations. Key Points The network approach is a novel way to analyze virtual water trade Key features of the global structure are highlighted Roles of countries and continents in virtual water trade are quantified

Global food security increasingly relies on the trade of food commodities. Freshwater resources are essential to agricultural production and are thus embodied in the trade of food commodities, referred to as “virtual water trade.” Agricultural production predominantly relies on rainwater (i.e., “green water”), though irrigation (i.e., “blue water”) does play an important role. These different sources of water have distinctly different opportunity costs, which may be reflected in the way these resources are traded. Thus, the temporal dynamics of the virtual water trade networks from these distinct water sources require characterization. We find that 42 × 109 m3 blue and 310 × 109 m3 green water was traded in 1986, growing to 78 × 109 m3 blue and 594 × 109 m3 green water traded in 2008. Three nations dominate the export of green water resources: the USA, Argentina, and Brazil. As a country increases its export trade partners it tends to export relatively more blue water. However, as a country increases its import trade partners it does not preferentially import water from a specific source. The amount of virtual water that a country imports by increasing its import trade partners has been decreasing over time, with the exception of the soy trade. Both blue and green virtual water networks are efficient: 119 × 109 m3 blue and 105 × 109 m3 green water were saved in 2008. Importantly, trade has been increasingly saving water over time, due to the intensification of crop trade on more water‐efficient links. Key Points Blue and green water are traded differently due to distinct opportunity costs Green water exports oscillate over time, while imports steadily increase Both blue and green networks have been increasingly saving water over time

Climate change and socio‐economic development place an increasing pressure on essential natural resources, such as arable land and freshwater. The international food trade can save water globally by redistributing commodities produced relatively more water‐efficiently. We focus on the global virtual water trade network associated with international staple food trade from 1986–2008. This study aims to determine which variables control the network's structure and temporal evolution, and to estimate changes in the network under future scenarios. Our fitness model reproduces both the topological and weighted characteristics of the network for the whole period. Undirected and directed network properties are well reproduced in each year, assuming as sole controls each nation's GDP, mean annual rainfall, agricultural area and population. The future structure of the network is estimated using climate and socio‐economic projections, showing that volumes of virtual water traded will become increasingly heterogeneous and the importance of dominant importing nations will further strengthen. Key Points Simple national variables reproduce the complete network's structure over time Population is used as a new control to reproduce directed virtual water flows The heterogeneity of virtual water trade flows is expected to increase by 2030

Recurrent or ephemeral water shortages are a crucial global challenge, in particular because of their impacts on food production. The global character of this challenge is reflected in the trade among nations of virtual water, i.e., the amount of water used to produce a given commodity. We build, analyze and model the network describing the transfer of virtual water between world nations for staple food products. We find that all the key features of the network are well described by a model that reproduces both the topological and weighted properties of the global virtual water trade network, by assuming as sole controls each country's gross domestic product and yearly rainfall on agricultural areas. We capture and quantitatively describe the high degree of globalization of water trade and show that a small group of nations play a key role in the connectivity of the network and in the global redistribution of virtual water. Finally, we illustrate examples of prediction of the structure of the network under future political, economic and climatic scenarios, suggesting that the crucial importance of the countries that trade large volumes of water will be strengthened.

We announce updates to the aims and scope of Earth's Future that introduce three Thematic Areas: Climate Impacts, Communities and Resilience, and Sustainable Resource Systems. These additions provide focal points for community building and editorial leadership within the journal's broad, transdisciplinary mission. We describe the motivation for these changes, outline each thematic area, and reaffirm that Earth's Future remains open to submissions across the full scope of Anthropocene science. Plain Language Summary Earth's Future is introducing three thematic areas: Climate Impacts, Communities and Resilience, and Sustainable Resource Systems. These thematic areas have been created to meet the journal's rapid growth and to create new opportunities for collaboration across research communities. Each area is led by a dedicated Deputy Editor who provides a focal point for community building and editorial expertise. The journal's broad, transdisciplinary focus remains unchanged and all research addressing the relationship between people and the planet remains welcome. Key Points Earth's Future introduces three Thematic Areas as focal points for transdisciplinary research, each led by a Deputy Editor Submissions have grown more than fourfold, from 419 in 2020 to 1,698 in 2025, with increasing geographic, disciplinary, and methodological diversity The journal's broad, open scope is unchanged; the thematic areas are frameworks for growth and community building, not strict boundaries

Recurrent or ephemeral water shortages are a crucial global challenge, in particular because of their impacts on food production. The global character of this challenge is reflected in the trade among nations of virtual water, i.e. the amount of water used to produce a given commodity. We build, analyze and model the network describing the transfer of virtual water between world nations for staple food products. We find that all the key features of the network are well described by a model that reproduces both the topological and weighted properties of the global virtual water trade network, by assuming as sole controls each country's gross domestic product and yearly rainfall on agricultural areas. We capture and quantitatively describe the high degree of globalization of water trade and show that a small group of nations play a key role in the connectivity of the network and in the global redistribution of virtual water. Finally, we illustrate examples of prediction of the structure of the network under future political, economic and climatic scenarios, suggesting that the crucial importance of the countries that trade large volumes of water will be strengthened. D

For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.TRANSLATIONSFor the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Background Schmallenberg virus (SBV) first emerged in Europe in 2011, and in Sweden in late 2012. The virus was still circulating in parts of Europe in 2015. In recent testing, the virus has not been detected in Swedish domestic animals, indicating that it is no longer circulating in Sweden. It is not known if the virus has circulated and is still circulating in Swedish wild cervid populations and whether wildlife can act as virus reservoirs. The aim of this study was to investigate whether SBV has circulated, and is still circulating among wild cervids in Sweden. Results Ninety-two sera from moose ( Alces alces , n  = 22), red deer ( Cervus elaphus , n  = 15), fallow deer ( Dama dama , n  = 44), and roe deer ( Capreolus capreolus , n  = 11) were collected and analyzed for antibodies against SBV. The sampling occurred in the southern and middle part of Sweden during three time periods: 1) before the vector season in 2012, 2) after the vector season in 2012, and 3) after the vector season in 2015. Animals from periods 1 and 2 were of varying ages, whereas animals collected in period 3 were born after the vector season 2013. Animals from period 1 ( n  = 15) and 3 ( n  = 47) were seronegative, but, 53% (16 of 30) of animals from period 2 were seropositive, determined by SBV competitive ELISA. Samples from period 2 were additionally analyzed for SBV-neutralizing antibodies. Such antibodies were detected in 16/16 SBV-N-antibody-positive, 3/12 negative and 2/2 doubtful sera. The two tests were in accordance at SBV-neutralizing antibody titers of 1:32 or higher. Conclusion Our results show that SBV circulated among wild cervids during the vector season of 2012. Three years later, no SBV-antibodies were detected in animals born after the vector season 2013. The likely absence of SBV circulation in Sweden, in contrast to other parts of Europe, might be explained by the annual occurrence of a vector-free season due to climate conditions. Interpretations are limited by the small sample-size, but the results suggest that the SBV competitive ELISA has high specificity but might have slightly lower sensitivity compared to a seroneutralization assay, when using samples from wild cervids.

Myoepithelial carcinoma (MECA) is an aggressive salivary gland cancer with largely unknown genetic features. Here we comprehensively analyze molecular alterations in 40 MECAs using integrated genomic analyses. We identify a low mutational load, and high prevalence (70%) of oncogenic gene fusions. Most fusions involve the PLAG1 oncogene, which is associated with PLAG1 overexpression. We find FGFR1-PLAG1 in seven (18%) cases, and the novel TGFBR3-PLAG1 fusion in six (15%) cases. TGFBR3-PLAG1 promotes a tumorigenic phenotype in vitro, and is absent in 723 other salivary gland tumors. Other novel PLAG1 fusions include ND4-PLAG1 ; a fusion between mitochondrial and nuclear DNA. We also identify higher number of copy number alterations as a risk factor for recurrence, independent of tumor stage at diagnosis. Our findings indicate that MECA is a fusion-driven disease, nominate TGFBR3-PLAG1 as a hallmark of MECA, and provide a framework for future diagnostic and therapeutic research in this lethal cancer. Myoepithelial carcinoma (MECA) is a rare aggressive salivary gland cancer. Here, the authors analyze the genomic landscape of MECA and identify a high prevalence of oncogenic gene fusions, primarily PLAG1 fusions, highlighting TGFBR3-PLAG1 as a potential hallmark of MECA.